The new NBC poll (MoE +/-3.5) takes a close look at health care. From First Read:
...according to a brand-new NBC News poll, 47% of Americans -- a plurality -- oppose the public plan, versus 43% who support it. That's a shift from last month's NBC/WSJ poll, when 46% said they backed it and 44% were opposed.
In a follow-up question explaining the benefits and disadvantages associated with a public plan, 45% said they agreed with the description -- by supporters -- that it would help lower health-care costs and provide coverage for uninsured Americans.
But 48% sided with opponents who say a public option would reduce access to their choice of doctors, and would lower costs by limiting medical treatment options.
And from MSNBC, more specifics suggesting stability amid uncertainty:
A plurality believes Obama’s health plan would worsen the quality of health care, a result that is virtually unchanged from last month’s NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. What’s more, only four in 10 approve of the president’s handling of the issue, which also is unchanged from July.
And a majority — 54 percent — is more concerned that the government will go too far in reforming the nation’s health care system, while 41 percent is more worried that the reform will not do enough to lower costs and cover the uninsured.
But amid the soft numbers for Obama, (51% job approval, 41% approval on health care) are these startling numbers:
But if the country is cautious about Obama’s health plans, it doesn’t seem to trust the Republican Party at all on the subject. Just 21 percent approve of the GOP’s handling of health care, versus 62 percent who disapprove.
Many of the doubts about the WH plan have to do with misinformation and mistaken ideas.
Majorities in the poll believe the plans would give health insurance coverage to illegal immigrants; would lead to a government takeover of the health system; and would use taxpayer dollars to pay for women to have abortions — all claims that nonpartisan fact-checkers say are untrue about the legislation that has emerged so far from Congress.
Forty-five percent think the reform proposals would allow the government to make decisions about when to stop providing medical care for the elderly.
That also is untrue: The provision in the House legislation that critics have seized on — raising the specter of "death panels" or euthanasia — would simply allow Medicare to pay doctors for end-of-life counseling, if the patient wishes. [see Daily Kos Research 2000 poll on these issues]
There's little in the poll to contradict this conclusion: Substantive Health Reform Still Can Persuade The Public (link). It'll take a concerted presentation of accurate information to persuade the persuadables. But don't count health reform out yet.
Still, the country appears to be receptive to some type of health care reform. A combined 60 percent of respondents say the system needs either a "complete overhaul" or "major reform." (Yet that combination has declined 10 points since April, and the percentage wanting a "complete overhaul" has dropped 12 points since that time.)
That's all the wiggle room the WH needs.
As an aside, HCAN takes issue with the poll's wording on public option (removing "choice" from the question after the June poll.) In this post, we looked at July and August where the wording is the same. More here with a comment by the pollsters:
NBC pollsters Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R) released the following statement: "The only agenda that we have is to accurately measure changes in public opinion. To that end, we selected two questions which we think are the best barometers of how and if attitudes on health care are changing in view of the robust public debate that is occurring."
More numbers (July numbers in parentheses), MoE +/- 3.5:
Obama job approval 51 (53)
Obama on health care 41 (41)
Complete overhaul/major reform 60 (70)
Obama's plan good idea 36 (36)
Obama's plan bad idea 42 (42)
Plan will make yours worse 40 (39)
Plan will make yours better 24 (21)
Favor public health plan 43 (46)
Oppose public health plan 47 (44)
Has what you have seen, read, or heard about these town hall meeting protests made you more favorable toward, less favorable toward, or made no difference in your feelings about President Obama's health care plan?
More favorable 16
Less favorable 19
Made no difference 62
Not sure 3
