On the anniversary of my sister's 29th birthday (if I told you WHICH anniversary, they wouldn't be able to identify me with dental records), there is a ton of Monday political news....
NY-Gov/NY-Sen: New Polling Shows Little Change As Summer Drags On
The good folks at Siena return again to poll the races in the Empire State, and they give us few surprises. In the Democratic gubernatorial primary, Andrew Cuomo still has around a three-to-one lead over incumbent David Paterson (65-23). On the GOP side, Rudy Giuliani has an easy lead over former Congressman Rick Lazio and Erie County Executive Christopher Collins (73%, with 8% for Collins and 6% for Lazio). In the general election, Cuomo has a sizeable lead over Giuliani (53-40), and absolutely lays waste to Lazio (66-16). Paterson, meanwhile, actually has a lead over Lazio (38-37), but loses handily to Giuliani (56-33). Meanwhile, on the Senate side, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is still little-known (only 49% have an opinion, with a 29/20 favorability spread). Former Governor George Pataki, with a sizeable name recognition edge, has a narrow lead over Gillibrand (41-38), but he is not a lock to run. Peter King, the verbose Long Island Congressman, is more likely to make a bid--but this poll has Gillibrand with a sizeable edge over him (46-24).
NV-Sen: Harry Reid Has Much To Do To Avoid Unemployment After 2010
The Silver State was polled last week by the folks at Mason Dixon. Last week, we gave you the gubernatorial numbers. Today, we look at the Senate, and the message is clear: Harry Reid is being put on notice by his own state. His favorability is languishing at just 37% (although that DOES beat both statewide Republicans: Senator John Ensign at 30%, and Governor Jim Gibbons at 15%). Against both little-known potential GOP rivals (Danny Tarkanian and Sue Lowden), Reid trails by 5-11 points. He also trails Dean Heller, but Heller has already announced that he will not be a candidate.
MA-Gov: Patrick Struggles In Somewhat Useless Rasmussen Poll
While people in the left-leaning blogosphere have come to question Rasmussen repeatedly and issue allegations of bias (while, unsurprisingly, the right-leaning blogosphere has fallen in love with them), the wrap-up has continued to use this prolific pollster. Today's new numbers out of Massachusetts are, to say the least, incredibly curious. The outcome is not terribly problematic (incumbent Democrat Deval Patrick leads Republican healthcare executive Charlie Baker by one point, and trails 2006 candidate Christy Mihos by five points). It is the fact that Rasmussen, for some reason, chose to omit Tim Cahill, the Democrat-turned-Independent state treasurer who seems likely to make a 2010 bid. As Crisitunity pointed out over at SSP this morning, other pollsters that have included Cahill have found him (rather counterintuitively) siphoning votes from the GOP candidates.
CA-Gov: Newsom Even Trails Jerry Brown in SF, Says New Poll
This cannot be happy news for the gubernatorial candidacy of San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom. A pair of polls reported by the San Francisco Chronicle show his campaign against former governor (and current Attorney General) Jerry Brown in dire straits. A statewide poll, conducted by Moore Methods, had Brown leading Newsom 49-20 statewide. A second poll, conducted by David Binder of only San Francisco voters, found Brown leading Newsom 51-34 even in Newsom's home city.
FL-Sen: Young Is Out, Other Names Into Senate Appointment Mix
The NRCC is, presumably, breathing a sigh of relief. After becoming the subject of heavy speculation last week, Tampa-area Congressman Bill Young (FL-10) removed his name from consideration for appointment to the U.S. Senate. One name that is getting a lot of run over the weekend has been former Congressman Clay Shaw, who apparently tacked to the right in his interview with Charlie Crist. Another longtime GOP Congressman, Lou Frey, is now in the mix. He served in the House in the 1970s.
IN-09: Because You Can't Get Enough of Baron Hill vs. Mike Sodrel
File this under "Oh, For the Love of God...Please No": Apparently southern Indiana Congressman Baron Hill (D-IN 09) may have a familiar opponent in 2010, the same man he has faced in every election since 2002: trucking executive and one-term Congressman Mike Sodrel. Most thought that the Hill-Sodrel battles were settled decisively in 2008, when the Democrat defeated Sodrel by a 58-38 margin. In all, Hill enjoys a 3-1 lifetime record over Sodrel.
SC-Gov: Major GOP Player Enters Race, Throws Quick Shot At GOP Incumbent
Republican Attorney General Henry McMaster will announce a bid for Governor this week, and apparently he will sprint as far as he can from sitting Republican Governor Mark Sanford while doing so. His opening ad of the campaign will apparently reference the fact that there has been "too much dishonesty and too many scandals" in the state. The GOP field is crowded, with Lt. Governor Andre Bauer, religious right Congressman Gresham Barrett and state legislator Nikki Haley also expected to run for Governor.
ND-Sen: Dorgan Starts His Re-Election Bid Early
Rarely do we see campaign advertising on the wrap-up, but this seemed like a special case. Incumbent Democrat Byron Dorgan is not waiting on Republican Governor John Hoeven (who is currently still in contemplative mode). He is launching his 2010 campaign now, and this ad is the first salvo in that battle:
OR-04: Leiken Admits To Campaign Mistake, Tearfully
There was a time, not very long ago, when Springfield Mayor Sid Leiken was seen as a sleeper for 2010--a Republican who could seize a traditionally Democratic district (in his case, Peter DeFazio's Oregon 4th district). Then, he had a less-than-stellar fundraising quarter, and then he got caught up in a campaign finance scandal. He admitted to errors late last week, but his response is not going to inspire much confidence, as he got unusually emotional about admitting a campaign finance irregularity. Cameras were rolling, and caught what Politico immediately labelled Leiken's "Muskie Moment".
