Gallup looks into their crystal ball, and they see nothing but pain for Democrats:
Our latest measure for the week of Sept. 20-26 shows Republicans with a 20-percentage-point lead over Democrats in terms of the percentage of voters who are “very” enthusiastic about voting. Additionally, preliminary modeling of the likely electorate using Gallup’s traditional likely voter questions (more on this next week) suggests that if current patterns persist, Republicans could have a double-digit lead in the national House vote on Election Day, which would translate into Republicans gaining well above the number of seats necessary to control the House.
Of course, enthusiasm is one measurement of how voters will behave in November. And, truth be told, I'd much rather have the GOP's level of enthusiasm right now rather than the comparably diminished level of fervor that most polls associate with the Democrats this cycle.
But to assume that enthusiasm is the omnipotent influence on elections, and to really downplay Gallup's own polling on the generic ballot (by saying "well, it's tied now, but it won't be for long!"), is problematic.
After all, as our polling partner Tom Jensen noted back in June, only caring about the "most enthusiastic" voters in an election has extremely poor predictive value. Consider:
So which number matters more- the overall one or the one among highly enthused voters? Let's look at a few of the races we've already had this cycle:
- In the special House election in Pennsylvania last month our polling found Republican Tim Burns up 60-38 with very excited voters. He trailed 50-46 with somewhat excited voters and 53-37 with not very excited voters. Burns lost the election because the Democrats, excited or not, still turned out.
- In the Massachusetts Senate race Scott Brown led 59-40 with very excited voters, trailed 60-35 with somewhat excited ones, and trailed 61-31 with not very excited ones. He won but those folks who said they weren't very excited still showed up and kept his margin of victory to 5 points.
- In the New Jersey Governor's race Chris Christie lead 60-34 on our final poll with very excited voters, trailed 44-42 with somewhat excited ones, and tied at 39 with not very excited ones. Like Brown he won, but it was only by 4 points and nowhere close to the 26 point lead he showed with very excited voters.
As Jensen noted in the final sentence of that June piece: "An unexcited vote counts just the same as a very excited vote." Yes, there is an enthusiasm gap (though there might be signs, at least from recent polling, that it might be abating slightly). Yes, that could cause no shortage of heartburn for Democrats.
There is a tendency, however, to overstate the importance of said gap. Gallup's repudiation of their own polling in predicting double-digit GOP margins by November might not be the only example of this, but it is among the most egregious.
