Paul Krugman notes another reason Democrats should avoid the Simpson-Bowles fiscal commission like the plague: it raises taxes on the bottom eighty percent of Americans while cutting taxes for the top twenty:
As I surmised, it redistributes income upward: the bottom 80 percent of families would pay higher taxes than they did in the Clinton years, while the top 20 percent — and especially the top 5 percent — would pay less; not what you’d call shared sacrifice.
The only twist here is that the ultra-rich, the top 0.1 percent, who get a lot of their income from dividends and capital gains, would be hit by having these gains taxed as ordinary income. Even so, they would face a smaller tax increase than the bottom 60 percent.
The analysis was conducted by Eric Toder and Daniel Bademan of the Tax Policy Center. Compared to current law, the Simpson-Bowles plan would have the following impacts on annual tax burden in 2015:
- Bottom 20%: Tax hike of $319
- Second 20%: Tax hike of $757
- Middle 20%: Tax hike of $738
- Fourth 20%: Tax hike of $121
- Top 20%: Tax cut of $1,755.
Note that this is relative to current law, under which the Bush tax cuts are set to expire. If you compare it to the Democratic tax proposal under which tax cuts on income under $250,000 are extended, the numbers are even more lopsided (the numbers for the first four quintiles come from the Tax Policy Center's comparison relative to current policy):
- Bottom 20%: Tax hike of $402
- Second 20%: Tax hike of $1,370
- Middle 20%: Tax hike of $1,890
- Fourth 20%: Tax hike of $2,845
- Top 20%: Tax cut of $1,755.
Compared to current policy the top 20% would also have a tax increase of $8,848, but it's important to note that would only be relative to the Republican tax proposal. Relative to the Democratic proposal, under which top rates would return to Clinton-era levels, taxes would go down for the top 20%. And while the top 0.1% would see an increase, the bulk of the cuts would go to the highest earners in the rest of the top quintile.
So the bottom-line is that unless you're looking for a debt reduction plan that increases the burden on the bottom eighty percent, decreases it on the top twenty percent, and slashes the safety net, the deficit commission ain't for you.