Make your calls in the comments. Yours don't have to be as detailed as mine!
To be clear to those who won't want to get it -- this isn't what I hope will happen, but what I fear will happen. As Nate wrote yesterday, there's sound reasons to hope for a better outcome. If I'm wrong because I was too pessimistic on Democratic chances, you won't see me crying.
So without further ado:
House: Net +49 GOP pickups
Bonus prediction -- Even if Dems narrowly hold the House, Nancy Pelosi will no longer be speaker.
Bonus prediction #2: Of those 49 seats, 26 will have been previously held by the Blue Dogs, utterly decimating their ranks.
Bonus prediction #3: Dems pick up the seats in DE-AL, IL-10, HI-01, and LA-02. We'll come depressingly close in AZ-03 -- the Quayle race.
Senate: +6 GOP pickups
Alaska: R+.01, litigated through next April
Arkansas: R+15 (loss)
California: D+7
Colorado: R+3 (loss)
Florida: R+8 (Crist in 2nd)
Illinois: D+2
Indiana: R+18 (loss)
Kentucky: R+9
Louisiana: R+10
Missouri: R+10
Nevada: D+2
New Hampshire: R+8
North Carolina: R+11
North Dakota: R+30 (loss)
Pennsylvania: R+3 (loss)
Washington: D+6
West Virginia: D+5
Wisconsin: R+5 (loss)
I may be unreasonably bullish on Illinois, but 1) the large number of undecideds in a Democratic state should mostly come home, and 2) the Green is taking a significant amount of support in polling that I suspect will erode given the chance of giving Obama's former seat to the GOP.
Colorado is certainly still in play, though the early voting has looked shitty for us. And Nevada is certainly still in play, though the early voting there is a bit more encouraging for Dems. Either way, GOTV will be most important in these three states -- Illinois, Colorado and Nevada -- plus Pennsylvania.
Meanwhile, Alaska depends on whether Democrats come home to their nominee, rather than stick with Murkowski. I've seen nothing in the polling to suggest that her 25-30 percent of Dems are moving away from her. But with national Dems engaging, and the McAdams campaign imploring Democrats to vote their values, not their fears, we have a real chance of grabbing this unlikeliest of seats. Doubtful the winner get seated before Spring 2011, though.
Governor: Net +4 GOP pickups
GOP pickups (+11): Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.
Dem pickups (+6): California, Connecticut, Florida, Hawaii, Minnesota, and Vermont.
Indie pickup (+1): Rhode Island
Key holds: Call me hopelessly optimistic, but I think we hold Ohio. I also think we'll hang on narrowly in Colorado, Massachusetts, and Oregon.
The GOP was looking at massive gubernatorial pickups even a month ago, but those potential gains have eroded to the point where they'll likely make their biggest gains in the Rust Belt and states that never should've had Democratic governors to begin with -- like Kansas, Oklahoma, and Wyoming.
A +4 result on this front would be a huge blow to the GOP, particularly since they were able to outspend Democrats by at least 2-1. And I doubt Republicans would cheer losing California and Florida in exchange for Wyoming and Kansas. Still, my predictions hinge on Florida and Ohio calls that are probably too optimistic.
Throw in tight races in Hawaii, Minnesota and Vermont, and we may very well see Democratic pickups relegated to a single state--California.
