Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos. 11/30-12/2 Likely Montana voters. MoE 3.8% (No trend lines)
Do you favor or oppose Congress passing comprehensive immigration reform?
Favor 56
Oppose 20
If passed into law one version of immigration reform that people have discussed would secure the border and crack down on employers who hire illegal immigrants. It would also require illegal immigrants to register for legal immigration status, pay back taxes, and learn English in order to be eligible for U.S. citizenship. Do you favor or oppose Congress passing this version of immigration reform?
Favor 75
Oppose 19
Note, the strongest support for comprehensive immigration reform? Republicans, at 88-10. In fact, if Democrats had gotten CIR on the docket and gotten it passed, it would've been a boon to Tester's reelection bid. 55 percent of Montana voters would be more likely to vote for him after passage, only 21 percent would be less likely.
Unfortunately, Democrats chickened out on CIR, and instead, they've been trying to salvage something with the DREAM Act, that would allow legalize children of undocumented immigrants if they complete two years of college or join the military. While nationwide support for DREAM has been strong, apparently, the wingnut hysteria over it has hit Montana, perhaps explaining why Sens. Jon Tester and Max Baucus are showing so much cowardice on the issue.
There is a measure before Congress, known as the Dream Act, which would give illegal immigrants brought to the U.S. as children the opportunity to gain legal resident status if they join the military or go to college. Do you favor or oppose the Dream Act?
All DEM GOP IND Lib Mod Con
Favor 36 57 33 23 59 46 17
Oppose 50 25 66 54 26 38 71
While overall support is anti-DREAM, it is driven by overwhelming opposition from conservative respondents, and given that they're 42 percent of the potential electorate, they skew the results heavily.
Why the gross disparity between CIR and DREAM? The conservative media has been whipping up a frenzy on DREAM the last couple of weeks, so that might be having an effect. But also look at the questions -- support for CIR increased when specifics were laid out, specifics that include "pay back taxes" and "learn English" -- both considered punitive or corrective. The DREAM language, on the other hand, is all about the reward -- legalization. It's been well documented that Republicans respond to punitive wording on immigration questions. Maybe if the DREAM kids were whipped 50 times for the sins of their parents, conservatives might be more approving?
PPP polled potential 2012 Senate matchups in Montana a few weeks ago (PDF). In that poll, Tester trailed narrowly against top potential challenger Rep. Denny Rehberg, and only garnered 11 percent of the conservative vote. On the other hand, he got 91 percent of the liberal and 63 percent of the moderate vote. So back to our poll:
Would you be more or less likely to vote for Senator Jon Tester in 2012 if he supported the Dream Act?
All DEM GOP IND Lib Mod Con
More 28 49 17 24 51 37 11
Less 45 21 61 49 21 33 66
Remember, the teabaggers call themselves "Independent". It's the Lib/Mod/Con numbers that are most relevant. And according to this poll, those less likely to vote for him are conservatives. They're not going to vote for him anyway. Moderates are the real battleground, and he comes out slightly ahead, at worse.
We asked a 2012 presidential question, and as you might imagine, Obama isn't doing so well in Montana, losing 57-35 against generic Republican. 18 percent of Obama 2008 voters plan to defect to the GOP. But here's one more DREAM data point, from PPP pollster Tom Jensen:
Among voters undecided on the Obama reelect question 45% support the Dream Act and only 27% are opposed. It might be a good vote with swing voters even if it isn’t with the state as a whole.
If Tester survives in 2012, it'll be because of liberal and moderate voters. If Tester votes "no" on DREAM to chase unattainable conservative voters, he won't just be joining the asshole caucus with a cruel anti-child vote, but he'll be doing it for no real electoral gain.
