Opinion Research Corporation for CNN. 12/17-19. 470 Republicans. MoE 4.5%.
I'm going to read you the names of a few people who might run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012. For each one, please tell me whether you would be very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not likely at all to support them if they decided to run for the Republican nomination in 2012.
Mike Huckabee: 67% likely, 31% not likely.
Mitt Romney: 59% likely, 40% not likely.
Newt Gingrich: 54% likely, 44% not likely.
Sarah Palin: 49% likely, 51% not likely.
(Likely includes "very likely " and "somewhat likely." Not likely includes "not very likely" and "not at all likely.")
In light of PPP's polling on Palin, it seems like Sarah may have one unsurmountable problem when it comes to running for President: people either don't like her (independents and Democrats) or don't want her to represent their party because other people don't like her (Republicans).
Huckabee, on the other hand, is emerging as a formidable threat to win the GOP nomination. I suspect the big question with him is whether he'll be able to overcome the institutional Republican support for Romney's campaign. If he's willing to work hard, that should be doable, and given Romney's big problem -- that he supported not just RomneyCare but also individual mandates -- my end of year prediction for 2010 is that in 2012, Mike Huckabee will be the GOP's nominee.
To be fair to Romney, Huckabee also has some baggage that Republican primary voters might not like: he opposes a government shutdown, he supported cap and trade and believes climate change is caused by man, he supported tax increases to improve education in Arkansas, and he supports the basic ideas behind the DREAM Act. But taken together, those challenges don't amount to this:
