Doyle McManus:
Obama's reelection depends on one factor above all: the unemployment rate in early 2012. If the economy is appreciably stronger by the spring of that election year, he's in good shape, just as Clinton was in 1996. If unemployment remains stuck at 9%, he's not.
E.J. Dionne:
What's most striking about Obama's deal with Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell is the extent to which it only reinforces Obama's image as an inside technocratic dealmaker. It turns out he will negotiate with anyone to get what seems sensible to him.
The problem is that this approach shortchanges the need to carry on a sustained argument on behalf of his overall objectives and rejects the idea that some "fights," a word Obama uses with disdain (except, perhaps, when he's criticizing liberals), are instructive and can help accomplish change over the long term.
David Broder thinks the president has Republicans right where he wants them because he has finally and publicly divorced the "Pelosi Democrats." In Broder's world, this perfectly sets the stage for the president's re-election, because everyone knows the best way to win an election is to divorce your base.
George Will is like a twelve-year-old girl for Mike Pence. Maybe they should have a sleepover, and George can braid Mike's hair.
Gail Collins:
Look on the bright side, Democratic base. You’ve been urging President Obama to get really mad. Ever since the inauguration, you’ve been waiting for him to take a stand, point fingers at the people who are blocking progress and demand that they get the heck out of the road.
And this week he did it! Yippee!
Of course the liberal Democrats did not really plan on his getting mad at the liberal Democrats. But you can’t have everything.
“This isn’t the politics of the moment. This has to do with what can we get done right now,” the president said heatedly as he defended his tax deal with the Republicans against outrage from the Congressional left.
It takes a lot to make President Obama incoherent. I think the vision of trying to corral 60 votes in the Senate on the night before Christmas sent him over the brink.
The president's compromise with Republicans doesn't just give tax cuts to the rich. It also give tax cuts to their rich kids, too. The L.A. Times says it's a very bad idea.
The federal government has taxed estates since 1914, with rates typically over 50% on values over $1 million in today's dollars. The Bush-era tax cuts reduced the estate tax to zero this year, but it's scheduled to go back up to 55% with a $1-million exemption next year. Democrats wanted to return to the 2009 level — a 45% rate and a $3.5-million exemption. Republicans, however, persuaded Obama to accept a 35% rate and a $5-million exemption.
There's no magic to those numbers — they're just arbitrary points between the GOP ideal of no estate tax and the looming 2011 levels that have little support in Congress. But the Republicans' basic position on the estate tax is wrong. It's not a "death tax" that punishes people for socking away earnings they've already paid taxes on. It prevents gains on property and other investments from going untaxed as they're passed from one generation to the next.
Dana Milbank is beside himself with glee that the Congressional Democrats' "rebellion" against the president's tax deal will be, in all likelihood, short-lived and ineffective.
And now for something completely different from Eileen Boylen:
WHEN FOX News reported the link between depression and chocolate consumption, I knew medical research had finally jumped the shark. Apparently, having more than 8.5 servings of chocolate a month indicates profound depression. Huh? By that definition, my husband and I should be on suicide watch. Color me psychic, but soon Cambridge will be wresting Kit Kats from vending machines and moving chocolate behind the pharmacy counter. Can a ballot question be far behind?
...
I’m sick of TV "sexperts." Like the specialist who recommends eating oats and beans for for "optimum performance." On what planet does excess fiber lead to connubial bliss?
And enough of the hype! Everything is billed as "shocking" or news that could "literally save your life!" Was anyone else shocked to learn that the best day to start a diet is Saturday? Shocking is the FBI catching Whitey Bulger or Sarah Palin looking up from grizzly wrestling to confess latent Democratic leanings. Starting a diet on Saturday? Nope. And everyone knows the best day to start a diet is tomorrow!
