Our weekly polling has clearly shown that the GOP's "Intensity Gap" is narrowing.
Over the past year, Republicans have been far more likely to say they're going to vote than Democrats, giving them an advantage even if the generic congressional ballot favored Democrats. Per our polling:
Three weeks ago, 40 percent of Democrats were likely or definitely going to vote, compared to 51 percent of Republicans -- an 11 point "intensity gap". Two weeks ago, as the battle for health care reform heated up, and GOP obstructionism came in full view, the numbers were 45 percent for Democrats, 56 percent for Republicans -- both sides equally riled up.
This week, the numbers are 55 percent for Democrats, 62 percent for Republicans. While both sides saw big spikes in their numbers, Democrats were particularly energized, with that intensity gap narrowing from 11 points to a far more manageable seven.
Now, another poll provides further evidence of this shrinking gap. Actually, the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll says that gap no longer exists:
- How enthusiastic are you about voting for the (Democrat/Republican) in your Congressional district this year - very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
3/26/10 Summary Table - Leaned Dem/Rep Supporters
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not Enthusiastic ---
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all
a. Democrat 74 39 35 25 14 11
b. Republican 76 42 34 23 16 7
Trend:
a. Democrat
--- Enthusiastic -- --- Not Enthusiastic ---
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all
3/26/10 74 39 35 25 14 11
3/26/10 RV 76 41 35 23 13 9
10/22/06 RV 78 38 40 20 13 8
10/8/06 RV 81 42 40 18 14 4
b. Republican
--- Enthusiastic -- --- Not Enthusiastic ---
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all
3/26/10 76 42 34 23 16 7
3/26/10 RV 75 41 34 23 18 5
10/22/06 RV 80 39 41 19 14 5
10/8/06 RV 76 35 41 23 18 5
The first line is for "all adults". So among those registered to vote, Democrats have the slight edge.
A cautionary tale -- in 2006, Republicans were supposedly more motivated to vote than Democrats. Turns out that GOP turnout that year was depressed, and energized Democrats, bolstered by Democratic-voting independents, helped sweep the GOP out of power. Currently, Democrats are doing poorly with independents, so while energizing Democrats helps prevent wipeout-by-apathy, we've still got a ways to go before we can neutralize all GOP advantages heading into November.
