Good grief. Could it really be possible that we are already one-quarter of the way through 2010?!?
And, speaking of slicing the year into quarters, this also marks the end of the fundraising quarter for candidates seeking election in the 2010 electoral cycle. If you have the means and the motivation, it might be a swell idea to drop some change into your favorite candidate's cash box before midnight.
With that minor bit of pressure applied, on with the Wednesday edition of the Wrap....
THE U.S. SENATE
KS-Sen: Moran Moving Out to Clear Lead in GOP Primary
SurveyUSA's semi-regular survey of the competitive Republican Senate primary in the Sunflower State came out a few days back, and found, for the first time, a decisive leader. West Kansas' Jerry Moran has forged a ten point lead over Wichita's Todd Tiahrt (42-32) in the battle to replace outgoing GOP Senator Sam Brownback (who is running for Governor). As always, SUSA did not poll a general election trial heat here. It is widely assumed, however, that either Tiahrt or Moran would be a decisive favorite.
MO-Sen: Blunt Leads Primary and General, But Warning Signs Abound
The good news for Republican Roy Blunt: a new PPP poll shows him with a thirty-point lead in the GOP primary and a four-point edge in the general election over Democrat Robin Carnahan. For Blunt, there are no shortage of cautionary notes in the poll, as well, however. For one thing, he is considerably less liked than Carnahan (though both have net negative favorability), which means if the statewide climate for Democrats improve even incrementally, he could be in trouble. Furthermore, he may get sweated in the primary, still. While he has a sizeable lead over little known state legislator Chuck Purgason, he only draws 48% of the vote against him.
NV-Sen: Tea Party In Cell Block T!
Oy. This could be a bit problematic for his political ambitions: apparently Tea Party nominee Scott Ashjian is about to face criminal charges related to passing bad checks for his business. According to local television sources, Ashjian lost his contractor's license last week, and an arrest warrant was pending. Ashjian was also in political trouble, as his candidacy was being questioned by another Independent candidate, who claimed that he was a registered Republican when he filed his candidacy as a Tea Party candidate.
OH-Sen: Undecided Vote Likely to Sway Democratic Primary
DemfromCT reported that either Democrat is competitive to pick up the U.S. Senate seat of outgoing GOP Senator George Voinovich. Quinnipiac, which did that general election poll, also surveyed the Democratic primary. Quinnipiac sees Democratic Lt. Governor Lee Fisher as a seven-point favorite over Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. Notable, however, is the fact that there is a massive pool of undecided voters (Fisher leads by just a 33-26 margin). This means, of course, that there is a wider-than-normal pool of persuadable voters for both campaigns to target between now and the primary in May. Early voting for the primary began in the state on Tuesday.
WI-Sen: Thompson Will Not Have Clear Field...IF He Runs
While official Republican-land might be clamoring for a Senate run by Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin (and our poll last week demonstrated why), we learned today that he will not have a clear field to the GOP nomination. Wealthy self-financer Terrence Wall confirmed today that he will stay in the fray even if Thompson gets off the fence (where has sat for months).
THE U.S. HOUSE
AL-05: Hits Just Keep on Coming For Newly GOP Parker Griffith
Apparently, time is not healing the wounds for Parker Griffith, the party switcher who defected from the Democratic Party in December and has received a less-than-warm welcome from the local GOP. Wayne Parker, who ran against Griffith in 2008 back in the old days when Griffith was a Democrat, elected to endorse challenger Mo Brooks rather than the new GOP incumbent in the race.
NV-03: New GOP Internal Poll Claims Freshman Dem in Deep Trouble
Looking at new numbers out of suburban southern Nevada, a cursory glance seems to indicate that freshman Democrat Dina Titus could be in real trouble. After all, a new internal poll for the campaign of GOP challenger Joe Heck shows him leading Titus by five points (40-35) in the wake of the health care reform vote. There are a couple of big caveats here, however, beyond the traditional caveats associated with an internal poll. For one thing, the poll measures the strength of an independent candidate. However, rather than picking the IAP or Libertarian candidates (who would be most likely to drain votes from Heck), they polled Barry Michaels, an Independent candidate who previously ran for Congress as a Democrat. Also, the poll was conducted amid a deluge of negative advertising directed at Titus trying to dissuade her from supporting the health care reform package.
PA-12: Is Burns Ignoring Primary Election In Favor of May Special?
One has to wonder if Tim Burns, the anointed nominee of the GOP in the forthcoming special election in John Murtha's old district (PA-12), is making a potentially exploitable error as he takes to the air. The first candidate to make a media buy, Burns notably avoided citing his party affiliation in his ad. His well-heeled primary opponent, 2008 nominee William Russell, is almost certain to make hay of that, as he had already been working hard to paint Burns as inauthentically Republican. In other PA-12 news, thought it comes as no surprise: the AFL-CIO threw their support to Democrat Mark Critz for both the Democratic primary election and the same-day special election.
WA-01: Even GOP Internal Poll Gives Inslee Solid Lead
This cannot necessarily be viewed as a sign of strength: GOP candidate James Watkins released an internal poll from Northwest GOP polling stalwarts Moore Information. The release did not show him leading longtime Democratic incumbent Jay Inslee. Indeed, it did not even show Watkins within single digits of Inslee. The poll, rather, showed Inslee with a 41-27 lead over Watkins. One must suppose that Team Watkins is trying to make hay of the fact that their candidate is holding Inslee below the 50% incumbent safety threshold. (hat tip: James L. at SSP)
RACE FOR THE HOUSE: Speaking Of SSP...
Our friends over at Swing State Project have released the inaugural edition of their Competitive House Race Ratings for 2010. As with almost all other prognostications, the ratings should offer a little bit of apprehension for Democrats, who hold the overwhelming majority of the Congressional seats that are endangered.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
AL-Gov: Byrne, Davis Lead Primaries, Is Sparks More Electable Dem?
The crew over at PPP are among the first in the electoral cycle to explore the political climate in Alabama, in advance of a potentially interesting open-seat gubernatorial election there. The bottom line? If the primary favorites win out, a Republican hold looks to be the most likely outcome. In the primaries, Bradley Byrne edges Judge Roy Moore (27-23) on the Republican side, with the rest of the GOP field languishing at or below the 10% mark. Meanwhile, the two-man race on the Democratic side is closer than some might think, with Congressman Artur Davis leading state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks by ten points (38-28, with a third candidate well back at 9%). Davis has a huge lead among African-Americans, but might have given an opening to Sparks with his vote against President Obama on health care. In the general election, it seems that Sparks is incrementally more electable than Davis. Either would be a considerable underdog against Byrne, however. The GOP frontrunner leads Sparks by thirteen points, and Davis by sixteen.
AL-Gov: In Other News, GOP Primary Reduced By One
With Bradley Byrne and "10 Commandments" Judge Roy Moore sucking up all of the oxygen on the GOP side of the Alabama Gubernatorial Primary, one of the candidates decided to headed for the exits today. Kay Ivey, the state treasurer who was best known perhaps for pouring a ton of cold water on Parker Griffith's party switch in December, decided today to move from the gubernatorial race to a bid for Lt. Governor.
FL-Gov: Could Gov's Race Become a Party For Three?
This is one of those campaign rumors that could inspire quite a discussion. Horse race fans, feel free to speculate on who would benefit the most from this: George Sheldon, a registered Democrat who was appointed by Charlie Crist to be the state secretary for Child Welfare, is considering entering the race as an Independent. He does seem to be trying to talk himself out of it (citing time and money constraints), but he did confirm that he is still considering making a bid.
TN-Gov: Candidate Withdrawal Seems To Cement Dem Nomination
It looks like the Democratic field is now cleared for businessman (and gubernatorial progeny) Mike McWherter, after state legislative leader Kim McMillan dropped her bid for Governor, preferring instead to run for Mayor of Clarksville. A Rasmussen poll last week gave the trio of Republican candidates a respectable lead over either McWherter or McMillan.
THE RAS-A-PALOOZA
Rasmussen heads back to New York, and they concur that the GOP path to victory there is minimal (although, true to form, their vote totals for Democrat Andrew Cuomo are around a dozen points less than everyone else). They also look at the competitive primaries for Governor in Michigan, and go into Idaho, for reasons unknown.
ID-Sen: Sen. Michael Crapo (R) 60%, Generic Democrat 28%
MI-Gov (D): Andy Dillon 12%, Alma Wheeler Smith 10%, Virg Bernero 8%
MI-Gov (R): Rep. Pete Hoesktra 27%, Rick Snyder 18%, Mike Cox 13%, Mike Bouchard 6%
NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 52%, Rick Lazio (R) 29%
NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 51%, Carl Palladino (R) 28%
NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 50%, Steve Levy (R) 26%
