There are 28 members of the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC); sixteen Democrats and twelve Republicans. These 28 Senators hold the key to repealing Don't Ask, Don't Tell, and at least eleven are undecided, key votes.
The goal is to have a repeal amendment introduced into the Defense Authorization Bill. It will require a majority of the SASC to get such an amendment into the bill. To do so will not be easy, but this mechanism is the only realistic path for getting repeal through Congress for the forseeable future.
Based on internet searches, Senators' party affiliation, their positions on related matters, and some guessing, I have sorted the 28 SASC members into six categories with respect to their likely stances on repeal. Below I've put together a summary, the individual categorizations, the eleven swing votes I see on the committee, supporting evidence (if any), and explanatory references as to why the SASC is the only game in town and will play both a necessary and critical role in DADT repeal.
The Summary:
- 5 Sponsors of the Senate repeal bill (SP)
- 2 Strong supporters (++)
- 3 Possible supporters (+)
- 5 With unknown sympathies (??)
- 3 With some kind of negative indicator (-)
- 10 Assumed opposition (--)
The Complete Categorization, Senator by Senator:
DEMOCRATS
| SP | Carl Levin | (Michigan) |
| - | Robert C. Byrd | (West Virginia) |
| SP | Joseph I. Lieberman | (Connecticut) |
| ++ | Jack Reed | (Rhode Island) |
| + | Daniel K. Akaka | (Hawaii) |
| ?? | Bill Nelson | (Florida) |
| - | Ben Nelson | (Nebraska) |
| ?? | Evan Bayh | (Indiana) |
| - | Jim Webb | (Virginia) |
| ?? | Claire McCaskill | (Missouri) |
| SP | Mark Udall | (Colorado) |
| + | Kay R. Hagan | (North Carolina) |
| ++ | Mark Begich | (Alaska) |
| SP | Roland W. Burris | (Illinois) |
| SP | Jeff Bingaman | (New Mexico) |
| ?? | Edward E. Kaufman | (Delaware) |
REPUBLICANS
| -- | John McCain | (Arizona) |
| -- | James M. Inhofe | (Oklahoma) |
| -- | Jeff Sessions | (Alabama) |
| -- | Saxby Chambliss | (Georgia) |
| -- | Lindsey Graham | (South Carolina) |
| -- | John Thune | (South Dakota) |
| -- | Roger F. Wicker | (Mississippi) |
| -- | George S. LeMieux | (Florida) |
| ?? | Scott Brown | (Massachusetts) |
| -- | Richard Burr | (North Carolina) |
| -- | David Vitter | (Louisiana) |
| + | Susan M. Collins | (Maine) |
The 11 swing votes
Assuming 15 votes are needed, given five sponsors and two other strong supporters (Begich and Reed), that leaves us seeking eight votes.
(I'm not sure and have been unable to find out whether to include an amendment it is necessary to have a majority of the entire committee (15 votes) or just a majority of those present and voting. I can't seem to find the rules of the SASC, either on its own web site or via Google. This may prove to be a crucial distinction: e.g., if, one member is uncomfortable voting either way (say, Brown), by being strategically absent that person could reduce the number of yea votes needed to 14 instead of 15.)
From this analysis, we can see that the key players, the crucial swing votes to get a repeal amendment inserted, are (in some approximation to their likelihood of voting for repeal):
- Daniel Akaka (+)
- Kay Hagan (+)
- Susan Collins (+)
- Claire McCaskill (??)
- Ed Kaufman (??)
- Bill Nelson (??)
- Evan Bayh (??)
- Robert Byrd (-)
- ------------ (15 vote majority cutoff)
- Jim Webb (-)
- Scott Brown (??)
- Ben Nelson (-)
Supporting Evidence For These Categorizations: (not including co-sponsors of the Senate repeal bill which are listed here)
Jack Reed (RI)
"Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), a senior member of the Armed
Services committee, praised Defense Secretary Robert Gates and
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen for backing the
repeal of the policy and their handling of the repeal process.
"I thought the secretary and chairman were both appropriately
supportive of the policy change," Reed said on Bloomberg's "Political
Capital," which airs throughout the weekend. "But also recognizing
that there has to be not only a decision but also an implementation
plan."
The Hill (February 6, 2010)
Mark Begich (AK)
In the recording of March 11th's "View from the Hill" -
CBS 11's weekly interview series with Alaska's Washington delegation
-- Senator Begich said "I think it's done its time, it's time to move
on and change the policy." ...
"You look at the militaries of Canada, Great Britain, Australia, they
don't have any policy like this," Begich told host Matt Felling. He
continued "it has not caused any disruption of how we perform our
duties. And I think [don't ask, don't tell has] done its time, it's
time to move on."
KTVA television
Daniel Akaka (HI)
*** no relevant statements or position found ***
Akaka was opposed to and voted against DADT in 1993, which is why he rates a single '+'. His silence on this matter now is stunning.
Kay Hagan (NC)
Hagan has said she believes "anyone willing and able to
serve ought to be able to do so."
NewsObserver.com (February 28th, 2010)
That sounds promising. But will it fly in North Carolina?
Susan Collins (ME)
"I've been participating in the hearings, and I have called for a review of the policy", Collins said. "It needs to be changed."
Politico
With all due respect, Senator, you are the agent of this change...
Claire McCaskill (MO)
*** no relevant statements or position found ***
Astounding that such a prominent a US Senator could have managed to not say anything (or at least avoid any Google reference) as carefully as she has.
It would be very interesting to know how DADT repeal polls in states like Missouri, with Senators that are on-the-fence.
Ed Kaufman (DE)
*** no relevant statements or position found ***
Bill Nelson (FL)
*** no relevant statements or position found ***
Some people think he is gettable, or at least they hope he is: petition
Evan Bayh (IN)
*** no relevant statements or position found ***
Robert Byrd (WV)
*** no relevant statements or position found ***
Wonkette anecdote about Byrd meeting with President Clinton about DADT
This is one of the only references I could find to Byrd and DADT. It was a long time ago now, but it may shed some light on his mindset.
Byrd could well be absent because of his age and ill-health, which brings to fore the question of whether 15 votes are needed or just a majority of those present.
Jimm Webb (VA)
"Secretary of Defense [Robert] Gates and Adm. Mullen have
announced a responsible and careful approach toward examining the
current don't ask, don't tell policy. This examination, which also
will include an assessment of the implications of changing the law,
will take approximately a year," Webb's statement said.
Politico
He obviously wants to wait. The question is, would he actually vote
against repeal? And would he vote against repeal if, say, repeal
didn't take effect until the DoD study came out?
Scott Brown (MA)
"I want to speak to the generals on the ground," Brown told POLITICO on Tuesday. "We're in the middle of two wars right now, and to implement a social policy, a social change -- I think it's important to get the guidance from the generals who are leading our soldiers."
Politico
Massachusetts is a liberal state. Massachusetts has equal marriage rights. Massachusetts has one of the highest perecentages of gays and lesbians. You'd think if Brown had good political sense he'd see that there was no downside to a vote for repeal here, and potentially some upside.
Ben Nelson (NE)
Nelson told the conservative news site CNSNews.com that he's waiting for a report from military leaders and the Defense Department before making up his mind.
"It's a question of what impact it would have on readiness, retention and recruitment," Nelson said. "And until we have that report to look at, it's premature to make any decision, in my opinion, about how, what to apply to the 'Don't ask, don't tell' rule we have in place today."
The Hill
Nelson isn't likely to vote for repeal until Mullen and Gates offer to pay Nebraska's medicare bill for the next 10 years out of the defense budget. Oh wait...
Why the Senate Armed Services Committee Is The Only Realistic Path To Repeal:
To grok why the Senate Armed Services path is the only realistic path, check out this analysis.You'll understand why the House will almost certainly never gets its repeal bill out of committee or into its version of the Defense Appropriations Bill, or onto the floor on a standalone vote. And we know that 60 votes would be required in the Senate to get a standalone repeal bill to the floor, which is not going to happen. For more Senate analysis, see this diary by Clarknt67 and this one.
Conclusions
The worst of it is we don't even know yet whether an attempt will even be made to insert repeal into the Defense Appropriations Bill, or exactly what form it might take. But assming Chairman Levin makes the attempt:
If President Obama were to personally appeal to the key swing votes: Bill Nelson, Bayh, Byrd and Webb, their votes would probably be there. There's likely no way for mere mortals to put any constituent pressure on Bayh (retiring) or Byrd.
Others, such as Hagan, Collins and McCaskill are probably going to want both Presidential persuasion and some show of support from their constituents.
It will be amusing, if nothing else, to watch Brown wriggle and writhe, dart and dance with this issue. Only an incredible outpouring from his constitutuents is likely to pull a yea out of him, although I could easily see him conveniently being in, say, Iraq just as the vote comes up.
Suppose this attempt fails. What are the prospects for next year's bill? The committee will likely have one extra Republican and one fewer Democrat, due to expected losses of Democratic seats in the Senate.
Evan Bayh, retiring, would hopefully be replaced with someone more favorable to repeal, while Kaufman's seat would go to a Republican who is unlikely to look favorably upon repeal. No other Senators on the committee will be losing their seats this November.
On the other hand, the military's DADT Repeal implementation report is expected to be out, which if acceptable could swing a vote or two, especially Webb's. As long as Democrats retain control of the Senate and the House repeal prospects don't necessarily look all that worse in 2011 than they do now; but the military will have kicked out another set of talented men and women that they need, and tens of thousands will still be living in fear of having their careers ruined.
Update: As per the comments, Graham may not be as unalterably opposed to repeal as I originally thought. He may rate a '-' instead of a '--'.
Update: Sam Drzymala, who works with the Senator, sent official word that "Senator McCaskill supports repealing the 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell' policy." Pam from Pam's House Blend in this diary crossposted there
