Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 5/10-12. Likely voters. MoE 4% (3/8-10 results)
Democratic primary, likely Democratic voters, MoE 5%
Arlen Specter (D) 43 (51)
Joe Sestak (D) 45 (32)
Undecided 12 (17)
Research 2000 is seeing the same kind of race that everyone else who has polled the race recently has seen. This is essentially a tied race.
Among likely Democratic primary voters, Specter has a 52-37 favorability rating, compared to 51-18 for Sestak. Not good numbers for the incumbent who is having a hard time remembering which party he's running in.
Establishment Democrats in Pennsylvania are freaking out.
The chairman of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party issued a stern warning to members of his party this week, declaring that nominating Rep. Joe Sestak over Sen. Arlen Specter could have “cataclysmic” consequences for the party’s ability to hold the Senate seat this fall.
As polls show Sestak, a second-term House member from the Philadelphia suburbs, cutting Specter’s advantage to single digits, Chairman T.J. Rooney told POLITICO in an interview that “if we want to keep this seat in Democratic hands, the only person capable of delivering that victory is Arlen Specter.”
“I can’t say, honest and true, if the shoe’s on the other foot, that we’ll have the same race in November,” Rooney said. “The results could be cataclysmic.”
Doom and gloom! What do the numbers say?
General election
Arlen Specter (D) 41 (47)
Pat Toomey (R) 49 (41)
Joe Sestak (D) 40 (39)
Pat Toomey (R) 45 (42)
T.J. Rooney, chair of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, doesn't know what the hell he's talking about. Look at the trends:
At this point, nominating the real Democrat also gives us the best chance in the general election to hold the seat. There is zero reason to stick with the untrustworthy Specter.