Young Americans are the linchpin of a new progressive era in American politics. So why aren't Democrats paying more attention to them?
That was the lead to an essay by E.J. Dionne in February,
part of a series of articles he wrote outlining a huge problem. The younger voters (millennials,
aka Gen Y, Gen Next, echo boomers, etc) are more liberal, less white and more accepting than their elders, but there's a catch, as EJ outlines:
For Democrats looking ahead to this fall's election, the Pew study has some disturbing news.
It's true that Millennials are the most Democratic age group in the electorate -- they voted for Barack Obama by 2 to 1. Their turnout rate relative to older voters was higher in 2008 than in any election since 1972, the first presidential contest in which 18-year-olds could vote.
But Pew notes that since 2008, the Millennials' "enthusiasms" have "cooled" -- "for Obama and his message of change, for the Democratic Party and, quite possibly, for politics itself."
We see that ourselves in a look at the R2K polling found here: the 18-29 vote (graphics below the fold) consistently supports Obama and Congressional Democrats more than any other age demographic.
In an earlier article, E.J. quoted Celinda Lake on the conventional wisdom:
Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster, offered a straightforward formula: "When Republican voters and older voters get angry, they vote," she said. "When younger voters get angry, they stay home." Thomas Bates, vice president for civic engagement at Rock the Vote, a group that mobilizes young Americans to go to the polls, shares Lake's worries. "For people who were energized in 2008, it was a time of hope and optimism," he said. "And when you get to the brass tacks of governing, the atmosphere in the process of legislating has become poisonous.
Well, there are some issues that are likely to motivate millennials if we can get that message out. And like in 2004:
The 2004 elections saw an unprecedented level of youth turnout. U.S. Census data analysis by The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) found that:
— Among 18-24 year olds, turnout was up 11 points to 47 percent.
— Among 18-29 year olds, turnout was up 9 points to 49 percent.
— More than 20 million votes were cast by 18-29 year olds, and 11.6 million were cast by 18-24 year olds, both up sharply from 2000.
there's always the chance of upending conventional wisdom.
What are the issues that could do spark more activism and higher voter turnout? Here are some suggested ones, supported by quotes from Center for American Progress's New Progressive America: The Millennial Generation survey and Pew's Millennials: A Portrait of Generation Next:
The environment
CAP:
When the Gerstein-Agne Generation We survey asked Millennials whether their generation was more likely or less likely than earlier generations of Americans to be characterized by its concern about environmental protection, 67 percent said more likely, compared to 13 percent less likely, for a net score of +54, the second-highest level of support for any item tested. Millennials also tend to believe that they need to do their part in addressing environmental concerns. According to a study conducted by Frank N. Magid Associates, 79 percent of Millennials agree that it is "my responsibility to improve the environment."
Add to that the Gulf oil spill, and this is a huge issue for this age group in particular to become invested in. It's not automatic, though. The Pew poll notes that Millennials are actually less likely to "go green" with recycling, organic food purchases, etc. than their elders (which
attitudes on government
may be a matter of where they are in the life cycle and what they can afford.) More data needed here, but I suspect the oil spill will be a game changer in the longer term.
Health reform
CAP:
Millennials are particularly resolute on the need for universal health care and, more than older generations, they want to see bold, decisive action toward this goal. Seventy-one percent agree that the federal government should guarantee health care coverage for all Americans. Millennials are also supportive of efforts to ensure that workers get their fair share of economic growth, such as labor unions, the minimum wage, and progressive taxation.
Pew:
While these young adults are, as a group, healthier than older Americans, Millennials are also the least likely of any generation to say they are covered by health insurance (61% vs. 82% for those 30 and older).
NY Times:
The White House issued rules on Monday allowing young adults to remain covered by their parents’ health insurance policies up to age 26.
The promise of such coverage has attracted great interest. Employers and insurers say they have been flooded with inquiries.
attitudes on regulation
Regulation
Why regulation? Check this out from CAP:
When asked in the 2008 National Election Study whether we need a strong government to handle today’s complex economic problems or whether the free market can handle these problems without government’s involvement, Millennials demonstrated an overwhelming preference for strong government by a margin of 78 to 22 percent.
Jobs and the economy
Pew:
In key ways, adults ages 18 to 29 have always been more vulnerable to economic swings than older Americans. The Millennial generation is no exception. Relatively few young people have accumulated enough assets or personal wealth to carry them through bad times. They are the least likely of any generation to own their own home (22% vs. 71% for adults ages 30 and older) and, like most Americans, a majority worry that they aren’t saving as much as they should.
CAP:
Millennials, more so than other generations, want a stronger government to make the economy work better, help those in need, and provide more services. They decisively reject the conservative viewpoint that government is the problem, and that free markets always produce the best results for society; instead they support a more balanced approach to the economy.
Added (h/t to JesseCW): Education
CAP:
An overwhelming 96 percent of Millennials supported expanding publicly funded scholarships to help more families afford college when asked in the Half in Ten survey in 2008, compared to 86 percent overall. Millennials also back expanding access to college. In the 2009 Women’s Voices Women’s Vote survey, 76 percent said it was extremely or very important for the Obama administration to expand the Lifelong Learning Tax Credit and Hope Scholarships, and 71 percent gave the same level of importance to increasing access to student loans and cutting interest rates. The comparable figures for all voters were 68 and 61 percent, respectively.
More generally, Millennials place a high priority on increased investment in education. In the Democracy Corps post-election survey, respondents received a list of problems the country faces and were asked from those listed which President Obama should pay the most attention to. Thirty-one percent of Millennials ranked "Investing more in education and training" as either their first or second most important issue, compared to a mere 14 percent of the general population.
Next Steps
Every one of these areas that Democrats have moved the ball down the field on needs to be highlighted. In order to get the Millennials out to the polls, it needs to be clear that the political process (and the Democratic party) is, at least, trying to do something for them. Back to E.J.:
And what will Democrats do about it? Politicians have a bad habit in midterm elections: They concentrate on older folks, assuming younger voters will stay home on Election Day. This may be rational most of the time, but it is a foolish bet for Democrats and liberals this year. The young helped them rise to power and can just as easily usher them to early retirements. Obama cannot afford to break their hearts.
Millennials' hearts and minds are in the right place. But how do you get their butts to the polls? The next steps are up to Democrats, and up to us so that we can continue to benefit and learn from Millennial attitudes.
Snapshots from Research 2000 polling done for Daily Kos, Millenials outlined in red.
R2K polling link
