Lately, the pundits (see Brownstein and Cook for examples) have noted that the lay of the land isn't great for Dems, but the ability of Republicans to shoot themselves in the foot should never be overlooked.
As a follow-up as to how that can happen, see the new ABC/WaPo poll on birther beliefs that bolsters what Daily Kos found months ago (Birthers are mostly Republican and Southern, 7/09.)
From Behind the Numbers:
Broad majorities across party lines volunteer that Obama was born in the U.S., although substantial numbers in some groups say he wasn't. In addition to the 14 percent who volunteer that he was born in another country, another 6 percent say that's their best guess. Overall, about a third of Republicans and conservatives say Obama was born in another country, or call it their best guess. Asked how firmly they hold this belief, most say they see his being born outside the country as their "suspicion only."
Cillizza:
Establishment Republicans have done everything they can to downplay chatter about Obama's citizenship, believing, rightly, that it is a stone-cold loser for the party. But, elements of the GOP base seem unwilling to leave the issue behind and a handful of candidates around the country -- including former Rep. J.D. Hayworth who is running for the Senate in Arizona -- seem unwilling to rule out the possibility in what seems like an attempt to win the votes of the most conservative of conservatives within the GOP base.
Weigel:
Thirty-one percent of Republicans doubt Obama's citizenship; the doubters also include 31 percent of tea party movement supporters, 36 percent of very conservative voters, and 27 percent of somewhat conservatives. Every other subgroup is under 20 percent.
But at this point we could have predicted that -- birtherism has remained a stubborn belief in the conservative base, despite widespread denunciation from elite conservatives. The more interesting part of the poll is that 31 percent of people who think Obama was born in another country approve of his job performance, and 34 percent give him a favorable rating. That validates a theory of mine -- that many so-called birthers don't actually hold Obama's (to them) foreign-ness against him, or think it's a way to oust him from the presidency. They have little information, they know he's half African, and they jump to conclusions.
Always remember there are a large group of "low information voters" out there. And if you are very conservative, or a teabagger, it appears you belong in the group of "misinformation voters" (thank you, Fox News.)
In any case, note Brownstein's comment today:
The GOP's rightward march could leave it on shaky ground with voters focused more on results than ideology.
Yep. Republicans and conservatives always get mad at polls that make them look bad, but they look bad because of what they believe and not because they were polled.