And with that, five months in the wonderful year that has been 2010 are done. Time may not be flying, but it sure is hauling ass...
Given the paucity of news over the holiday weekend, this is a pretty spartan edition of the Wrap, as you might expect.
However, to kick it off, here is a fun piece out of Politico. Who would you put on the list of the Worst Campaigns of 2010? Jonathan Martin and Alexander Burns have some fun with it...and you can add your personal favorites in the comments.
THE U.S. SENATE
KY-Sen: Close Conway-Paul matchup confirmed by SUSA poll
Until this weekend, forecasting the Senate race in the Bluegrass State was complicated by the fact that the two polls since the primary were as far removed from one another as possible. If you believed the Daily Kos/R2K poll last week, Democrat Jack Conway was right on Republican Rand Paul's heels. If you bought stock in Rasmussen, the race was a twenty-five point blowout. We now have a tiebreaking vote from the folks at SurveyUSA. They lean towards the R2K poll, with Rand Paul leading by just six points (51-45). As always, SUSA has their unique quirk of a comically low number of undecided voters, which leads to the presumption that they press the living heck out of those undecided voters.
THE U.S. HOUSE
CA-42: Fresh teabagging on the way next week?
This race has flown under the Wrap's radar, despite the fact that it is not far from my own backyard (and a tip of the hat to DavidNYC at SSP for noticing it first). It looks like unspectacular Republican incumbent Gary Miller, the former mayor of Diamond Bar (east of L.A.), is getting a legitimate teabagging threat from a self-funding suburban CPA named Phil Liberatore. Liberatore has dropped close to a half million dollars of his own cash into the race, and has actually outspent the incumbent. Add this to the races to watch next week!
PA-12: Does the math prove GOP claims about special election?
Anyone who has heard a conservative talk about the May 18th special election in PA-12, where Democrat Mark Critz defeated Republican Tim Burns, has heard the same rationale for GOP defeat: it was all Joe Sestak and Arlen Specter's fault. The argument goes somewhere along these lines, Burns' downfall was part of a nefarious plot by Ed Rendell to put the election on a date when Democratic turnout would be spiked. The website PA2010 looks at the numbers, and is skeptical of the claim. They point to primary turnout in 2008 (and general election in 2006) to rebut the claim. It is also worth noting, from digging through the numbers on Monday afternoon, that the number of voters participating in the 2010 primaries from the 12th district doubled from 2006 among Republican voters, while only increasing by 37% among Democrats (2006 results here. This would also seem to rebut that GOP claim about the Senate primary doing undo harm to their chances in the 12th.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
NY-Gov: Lazio scores Conservative nod (kind of)...
Nothing on the Republican side in New York is coming easily these days. The Conservative Party voted to endorse Rick Lazio at their gathering over the weekend, but the manner in which it was done led to a mini-revolt within the party. Supporters of Carl Paladino and Steve Levy, complained that the vote for the party nod was timed to put pressure on the GOP to give the nod to Lazio over his rivals. Thus, they conspired to put another candidate on the ballot: Erie County Conservative Chairman Ralph Lorigo. Lorigo earned enough support to force a primary for the Conservative Party nod. New York Republicans will gather within a week to iron out their ballot, as well.
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
Like the Wrap (and, in a tip of the hat, our buddies over at Swing State Project), the House of Ras refuses to take a holiday. They kick off the week with a smattering of data. And you'll never guess who looks pretty good in that polling! Why, it's the Republicans! Not only do they have a seven point lead in the Ras-world Generic Congressional ballot, but they are within striking distance of a Democratic Governor that has been elected with 70% or more of the vote during the last two cycles. So says the Ras...
NH-Gov: Gov. John Lynch (D) 47%, John Stephen (R) 35%
NH-Gov: Gov. John Lynch (D) 50%, Jack Kimball (R) 31%
NH-Gov: Gov. John Lynch (D) 51%, Karen Testerman (R) 32%
