The busiest day of the primary season (at least, for a long while) heads into the rearview mirror, as we press ahead with news on the primary and general election fronts in this mid-week edition of the Wrap.
THE U.S. SENATE
CO-Sen: Norton seeing a rightward tack as path to salvation?
Quite clearly, NRSC favorite Jane Norton is feeling the heat of Ken Buck in the GOP primary in Colorado. Her latest ad works hard to position Norton on the right. Her first major media foray since the winter has her railing against "Obamacare", and focuses on the uber-conservative Colorado Springs media market. Given the recent successes of Rand Paul and Sharron Angle, Norton is clearly making some calculations about where electability lies in the GOP this year.
CT-Sen: Even McMahon internal poll has her down double digits
This is a sign that the Connecticut Senate race is not the toss-up that some media types have made it out to be--her campaign has released internal polling that shows her trailing Democrat Richard Blumenthal by 13 points (51-38). The poll was conducted by Moore Information, which might be more familiar for its polling in the Pacific Northwest. This result is somewhat tighter than recent polling (which has had Blumenthal up 20-25 points), but it shows Blumenthal was not impacted in a serious way by the NYT articles that hounded him last month.
FL-Sen: New Q poll--Crist with edge, relying heavily on Dems
The new numbers out today from Quinnipiac underscore the tightrope that GOP-turned-Indie Charlie Crist has to walk in order to score a victory this Fall. Crist leads Republican Marco Rubio by four points (37-33), with Democrat Kendrick Meek well back at 17%. If uber-wealthy Jeff Greene can parlay his millions into the Democratic nomination, he does marginally worse, drawing 14% against Crist (40%) and Rubio (33%). Despite being a former Republican, Crist does approximately ten points better among Democrats than he does against Republicans. He also leads among Independent voters (perhaps unsurprisingly).
KS-Sen: Underdog Tiahrt paints Moran...as an Obama fan
It appears that when you are trailing badly in a Republican primary, with a margin that appears to be ever-widening, you have to put the ball into the air. That's what Kansas Congressman Todd Tiahrt is doing as the underdog in a primary with fellow House member Jerry Moran. Tiahrt, long considered to be the more conservative of the two gentlemen (although neither would be considered moderates), portrays Moran as an admirer of both Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi. Yep...merely saying that Obama was "easy to work with" can now be molded into a GOP attack ad.
NC-Sen: PPP sees slippage for homestate Dems in new poll
We are still almost two weeks away from the runoff elections in North Carolina, and PPP takes a look at where the two Democrats stand when paired with GOP incumbent Richard Burr. The answer? Not quite as well as in the post-primary bounce period. Both are still within striking range, though, as Burr continues his trend of mediocre polling. After only having leads of 1-5 points immediately after the May 4th primariers, Burr now leads both Elaine Marshall (46-39) and Cal Cunningham (46-35) by markedly wider margins. PPP attributes that, in part, to both candidates being off-air for the first month (!) of the runoff cycle.
SC-Sen: Meet your new Democratic nominee!
Oy. Of course, virtually nothing was known about 32 year-old Alvin Greene, who scored the upset win in the Democratic Senate primary last night over Victor Rawl. What we now know, of course, is not so good. Greene was arrested last fall and is awaiting a felony trial for showing obscene internet photos to a college student while trying to finagle his way into her dorm room. Perhaps Rawl should have spent some of the nearly $200K he spent on the primary and invested in some oppo research?!? For what its worth, the South Carolina Democratic Party asked Greene to stand down in the wake of this revelation.
THE U.S. HOUSE
AR-01: GOP internal poll suggests pickup opportunity in the Fall
All precincts from northern Arkansas probably weren't even tallied yet before the campaign of Republican nominee Rick Crawford released an internal poll claiming a six-point lead over newly-nominated Democrat Chad Causey. Bear in mind, of course, that an internal poll with a six-point margin just screams "toss-up."
IN-03: GOP to meet this weekend to select Souder replacement
When hundreds of local Republican committee members meet this weekend in Northeast Indiana, they will select a nominee to replace Mark Souder, who abruptly resigned last month in the midst of an adulterous sex scandal. A total of fifteen names threw their hats into the ring. Included were a handful of state legislators, the best known of which is Marlin Stutzman, who performed well in his bid for the U.S. Senate last month.
VA-05: Hurt tries to unite factions post-primary
Time will tell, but newly-minted Republican nominee Rob Hurt is working overtime to get the warring factions of the GOP behind his candidacy for Congress. Today, he claimed the endorsements of both Jim McKelvey and Feda Morton, both of whom enjoyed support from local tea partiers. McKelvey, who came in second with over a quarter of the vote, was a big get for Hurt. Hurt may well still have to contend with some flak from his right, as conservative activist Bradley Rees indicated pre-primary that he would run as an Independent candidate if Hurt won the primary.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
AL-Gov: GOP runoff election is set (well, most likely)
Bradley Byrne probably knows his opponent for the runoff election to determine the GOP nominee for Alabama Governor, but it isn't a lock just yet. State legislator Robert Bentley narrowly defeated Tim "We Speak English" James for the right to go heads-up with Byrne. However, James is going to seek a recount. Since the automatic recount law apparently does not apply to primaries (so says state AG Troy King), James will have to foot the bill on his own. James has the benefit of time--the runoff does not take place until July 13th.
FL-Gov: Q poll bearish on Democrats; Chiles doesn't move needle
The Quinnipiac poll alluded to above included a look at the gubernatorial race, and becomes the first poll to look at the impact that Independent candidate Lawton Chiles III could have on the race. While the news is not good, there can be at least a little comfort in the fact that the Democrat-turned-Indie doesn't make things worse for the Blue Team. Without Chiles in the calculus, Democrat Alex Sink trails both Bill McCollum (42-34) and Rick Scott (42-32). When Chiles is added to the mix, Sink trails both gentlemen by similar margins: she is down nine to Scott (35-26-13) and down eight to McCollum (33-25-19).
SC-Gov: Runoff will happen, despite some pressure
There is little doubt that the RGA would dearly love to avoid a runoff in the Palmetto State, where state legislator Nikki Haley barely missed avoiding a runoff by leading Congressman Gresham Barrett (49-22) in the first round of balloting last night. It looks like they will not get their wish, as Barrett made it clear today that he will continue onward into the runoff, despite the severe hill he has to climb to win the runoff. Barrett also doesn't have much time--the runoff comes only two weeks after the primary. Clearly, he is hoping that something tangible develops from Haley's personal travails sometime over the next fortnight. For what its worth, Tom Jensen crunched numbers from PPP's most recent data in the Palmetto State, looking at the second choices of the vanquished foes. Based on that, he projects a 60-40 Haley win in the runoff.
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
In another installment of the ongoing saga of Rasmussen as self-parody: they didn't poll any of the primaries or runoffs last night in the past few weeks, but they found time to poll the breathtaking 2012 showdown between President Obama and....Arizona Governor Jan Brewer, who has no designs of running. They also polled several general election trial heats, all to the advantage of the GOP, of course.
CO-Sen: Jane Norton (R) 46%, Sen. Michael Bennet (D) 40%
CO-Sen: Jane Norton (R) 43%, Andrew Romanoff (D) 42%
CO-Sen: Ken Buck (R) 46%, Sen. Michael Bennet (D) 41%
CO-Sen: Ken Buck (R) 45%, Andrew Romanoff (D) 39%
FL-Gov: Bill McCollum (R) 40%, Alex Sink (D) 38%
FL-Gov: Rick Scott (R) 45%, Alex Sink (D) 40%
FL-Sen: Charlie Crist (I) 37%, Marco Rubio (R) 37%, Kendrick Meek (D) 15%
IL-Sen: Mark Kirk (R) 42%, Alexi Giannoulias (D) 39%
NC-Sen: Sen. Richard Burr (R) 47%, Cal Cunningham (D) 35%
NC-Sen: Sen. Richard Burr (R) 50%, Elaine Marshall (D) 36%
