PA-Sen: Sestak and Toomey all tied up

Quinnipiac. 7/6-11. All voters. MoE 2.7% (5/4-10 results)

Joe Sestak (D) 43 (40)
Pat Toomey (R) 43 (42)

While Rasmussen still has his usual GOP lead in the race (45-39), Q backs up PPP, which had the race tied at 41-41. In an April Q-poll, Toomey led Sestak 42-34.

"Congressman Joe Sestak, a decided underdog who knocked off U.S. Arlen Specter in the Democratic primary, has now closed an 8-point gap in the last three months to tie Pat Toomey," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "But the Senate race remains wide open, since at this point about half of the voters don't know enough about either candidate to form an opinion.

The trendlines, with Rasmussen:

And without Rasmussen:

According to the latest Q-poll, Toomey has rallied his party (82-11) better than Sestak (77-11), giving Sestak a few more points to grow on that front. But the real battle is over independents, which Toomey is currently winning 44-35, with a whopping 19 percent undecided. Sestak is crushing Toomey in Philly (60-18) and winning handily in Allegheny County (52-32) -- two places where GOTV will be critical for Sestak's chances. He needs to run up the vote totals in those areas to offset Toomey's natural advantages in the "Alabama" middle part of the state.