Fitting, it would seem, that the last edition of the Polling and Political Wrap (for two weeks, anyway) would also provide a new track record in terms of number of stories and length. Geez, I almost had to cancel my first set of hotel reservations for the family road-trip just to write the danged thing.
Yes, fellow horserace junkies, your humble curator of the Wrap will be taking leave for a couple of weeks to explore the beauty of America from behind the wheel of the family truckster. Think Clark Griswold with facial hair and about forty or fifty additional pounds.
In the meantime, there is no shortage of electoral goodness on the FP, with or without the Wrap. So stick around, and you will see the next edition of the Wrap on Saturday, August 14th. Consider it a really, really short hiatus.
And with that, a heaping helping of horserace nuggets await us in this Thursday "getting my ass out of town" edition of the Wrap....
THE U.S. SENATE
CA-Sen: PPIC says Boxer up five over Fiorina, one third undecided
In a poll where one has to doubt that leaners were pushed very hard, the well-known local pollsters at PPIC find that incumbent Senator Barbara Boxer leads businesswoman Carly Fiorina by five points (39-34) in her re-election bid. The state's climate seems to favor Boxer: President Obama maintains a 56% approval rating in the state, and even among California Independent voters Boxer maintains a six-point advantage.
CO-Sen: Primary poll claims toss-up on the Democratic side
Some have speculated (myself included) that the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate between appointed incumbent Michael Bennet and challenger Andrew Romanoff might be a little closer than the conventional wisdom. There is now some supporting data for this speculation. A new poll out from Zata|3 (last seen polling the races in Arkansas for Talk Business) shows that Bennet has just a four-point lead over Romanoff (44-40). Most polling to this point has suggested a double-digit lead for Bennet. The primary is looming on August 10th, less than two weeks away.
CT-Sen: Newly returning Rob Simmons lands huge endorsement
In a sign that his campaign really is back (and, furthermore, a sign that the outlet in question really can't stand Linda McMahon), the Hartford Courant has trotted out their endorsement for the August 10th GOP Senate primary. They have decided to give the nod to former Congressman Rob Simmons, whose in-out-in-out-in routine has been a true sight to behold. Simmons is once again challenging well-heeled frontrunner Linda McMahon for the party nomination, after suspending his campaign after she earned the party's endorsement during the state conventions in May.
OR-Sen: Wyden looks reasonably secure in new SUSA poll
In addition to new Rasmussen data which puts three-term Democratic incumbent Ron Wyden in a stronger position, new numbers out today from SurveyUSA also show a comfortable (albeit not dominant) lead for the Senator. Wyden leads law professor Jim Huffman by eighteen points (53-35) in the new SUSA poll. Propelling Wyden to victory is a better than two-to-one edge among moderates (61-26), which make up more than 40% of the voters in the state.
THE U.S. HOUSE
AZ-03: McCain endorses is super-crowded GOP primary field
After taking several months, presumably to learn all the names in the double-digit field of candidates vying to replace retiring Rep. John Shadegg, Senator John McCain has offered his support to state Senator Jim Waring. The endorsement was undoubtedly awkward, as there were a handful of Republicans (including VP progeny Ben Quayle) that had already offered their endorsement of McCain in his contested Senate primary with J.D. Hayworth. The endorsement comes less than a month before the raft of GOP contenders go head-to-head on the ballot on August 24th. In the meantime, Democrat Jon Hulburd is conserving resources for what could prove to be a surprisingly competitive Democratic primary.
FL-08: GOPer wields internal poll with 8-point edge in November
It would appear that one way to try to get traction in a crowded primary field is to demonstrate viability in the general election. That appears to be the game plan for repeat candidate Todd Long, who has released an internal poll from John Zogby claiming an 8-point general election lead over Democratic freshman incumbent Alan Grayson (46-38). Long, of course, first must navigate a multicandidate GOP primary on August 24th, a primary where he is unlikely to be the frontrunner. That honor would likely go to either former state House Speaker Dan Webster or free-spending businessman Bruce O'Donoghue.
KS-04: Looks like Pompeo vs. Goyle in Tiahrt open seat
With primary day just a handful of days away, the field in the Wichita-based open seat being abandoned by the Senate-aspiring Todd Tiahrt looks to be shaking out a little bit. This is especially true on the Democratic side, where running some early ads seems to have paid off for DCCC recruit Raj Goyle. Once slightly trailing little-known retiree Robert Tillman, he now holds a commanding 63-19 lead. On the Democratic side, businessman Wink Hartman went from co-frontrunner to third place. Businessman Mike Pompeo now holds a clear lead with 31% of the vote, though moderate state legislator Jean Schodorf has launched out of the teens into second place at 24%. Hartman is third at 21% of the vote.
KY-06: Public poll gives Chandler a double-digit lead over Barr
This is a good enough result to even seem a bit too optimistic, but new numbers from Braun Research (on behalf of local political website CN|2) gives Democratic incumbent Ben Chandler a fourteen-point edge (46-32) over Republican challenger Andy Barr. Voters split 48-43 in favor of Chandler's vote on health care reform, which might be a bit lofty in a district carried by John McCain in 2008.
NC-07: Frasier star raises cash for longshot GOPer
I think DavidNYC over at SSP said it all when he preceded this story with the single-word introduction of "Barf." Longshot Republican challenger Ilario Pantano, perhaps best known for avoiding prosecution for the premeditated murder of two Iraqis in April of 2004, is getting a high-profile name raising cash for him--Kelsey Grammer. The former television star will be heading to North Carolina to appear at two house-party fundraisers for Pantano.
NH-01/NH-02: Dems betting .500 in competitive Granite State races
As the old saw goes, we have good news and bad news out of New Hampshire, where the University of New Hampshire (PDF) updates their semi-regular polling of the state's two House districts. The good news? Two-term incumbent Carol Shea-Porter has pulled into a lead over all of her GOP challengers. Former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta comes the closest, trailing by five points (44-39). The other Republican candidates fall somewhere between 8-11 points behind Shea-Porter, who has positive favorability for the first time in quite a while. Meanwhile, Republican Charlie Bass is still riding his name recognition edge to a lead over either Democratic suitor. Despite being far better known, Katrina Swett (30-47) performs almost identically to lesser-known (but Orange to Blue endorsed) progressive candidate Ann McLane Kuster (29-47).
NY-13: McMahon hits GOP contender for "Jewish Money"
This is pretty low-budget, and it doesn't particularly matter to me that it was a Democrat doing it to a Republican. The campaign of freshman Democrat Mike McMahon wanted to make the point that little of the money being raised by GOP contender Michael Grimm was emanating from the 13th district. Which would be fine, except that the file that McMahon's campaign sent over to a local political website was titled "Grimm Jewish Money Q2." If you want to make a point of a candidate raising cash outside of the district, have at it. But..."Jewish" money?!?! UPDATE: Gee, that didn't long. Politico is reporting that McMahon has fired the staffer responsible for sending that file.
OR-05: GOP contender--extending unemployment is "European"
Add the voice of "moderate" Republican state legislator (and Congressional nominee) Scott Bruun to the growing chorus of Republicans who feel like extending relief to unemployed Americans is...well...un-American. Bruun, who is challenging freshman Democrat Kurt Schrader in a potentially competitive race, said of the UI benefits extension:
"When we're talking up over close to two years and longer with jobless benefits, I think we really start talking about a European style system and all the problems that that sort of system brings if you try to bring that sort of system to the United States."
Bruun is the latest inductee into what Plum Line writer Greg Sargent has dubbed the "Let Them Eat Want Ads caucus."
PA-06: Gerlach has a history of optimistic internals
In yesterday's Wrap, I noted that Republican incumbent Jim Gerlach seemed pretty confident about his prospects in November, even revealing an internal poll showing him with a massive lead over Democrat Manan Trivedi. The guys over at Swing State Project did a little digging, however, and discovered that Gerlach has a little bit of a habit of releasing overly rosy internal polling. In September of 2008, for example, he released an internal showing him wiping the floor with Bob Roggio (57-28). Gerlach wound up winning by four points.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
CA-Gov: PPIC confirms PPP--Whitman trails despite eight-figure bid
Over a hundred million dollars into the kitty, and Meg Whitman still can't buy a lead over Democratic nominee Jerry Brown. That was the conclusion of the PPP poll released earlier this week, and it has now been confirmed by new numbers from PPIC. The local pollsters gives Brown a three-point edge over Whitman (37-34), which is similar to PPP's six-point edge for the Democrat earlier in the week. Despite Whitman's feeble attempts to walk back her immigration stances in the primary, PPIC sees Latino voters seeing through it. That subset of voters prefers Brown by a 42-18 margin.
In more amusing gubernatorial news, it looks like buyers' remorse comes seven years too late for the Democrats in California. PPP asked voters whether they would prefer to have the ousted Gray Davis as Governor, or the current occupant (Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger). Davis wins on that score by a 44-38 margin.
FL-Gov: Scott maintains double-digit edge in GOP Gov's primary
Markos noted earlier the double-digit edge for gazillionaire Jeff Greene over Kendrick Meek in the Democratic Senate primary in the Sunshine State. It turns out that Florida apparently likes their billionaires, as the same Quinnipiac poll showed Republican Rick Scott holding onto an eleven-point lead (43-32) over state Attorney General Bill McCollum. That is actually a slight narrowing of the margins for McCollum, who was down thirteen in the immediate wake of Scott's deluge of campaign ads to kick off his campaign.
KY-Gov (2011): Teabagger GOP businessman announces against Beshear
Earlier in the week, the Wrap noted that former Rand Paul campaign head David Adams was teasing that he had found a candidate for Kentucky Governor that would unite the GOP establishment and the teabaggers. Remember, of course, that Adams was said to have abandoned the Paul campaign to find such a statewide candidate. Apparently, he has that candidate--Phil Moffett. Moffett, who owns an IT firm, will join a field likely to include Ag Commissioner Richie Farmer and state legislator David Williams.
MD-Gov: Ehrlich GOP primary challenger going on the air?
This would make for a much more interesting primary on September 14th: Brian Murphy, the businessman waging a longshot campaign against GOP establishment favorite (and former Governor) Robert Ehrlich, is soliciting funds in advance of taking his campaign onto the air in Maryland. Democratic Governor Martin O'Malley had already been on the air for a couple of weeks, while Ehrlich was conserving resources. An active primary challenger, of course, would force Ehrlich's hand, in all likelihood.
NH-Gov: Lynch has double-digit lead over entire GOP field, says PPP
Democratic incumbent Governor John Lynch might not be able to count on the 40-to-50 point wins he grew accustomed to in 2006 and 2008, but he is still on his way to a comfortable victory. Lynch holds leads over the entire field of Republicans angling for the gubernatorial nod. Former state commissioner John Stephen comes the closest, but still trails Lynch by a seventeen-point margin (51-34). Lynch also leads the trio of lesser-known Republicans eyeing the nomination: Frank Emiro (48-28), Jack Kimball (52-29), and Karen Testerman (52-28).
NY-Gov: Paladino nixes third-party bid for Governor
Democratic Andrew Cuomo has benefited in this cycle from a huge financial edge and a sizeable polling lead over his GOP rivals. He will not, however, benefit from divided opposition in November. Such is the word of Buffalo-area businessman Carl Paladino, who has now made it clear that it is GOP nomination or bust. Paladino is challenging former Congressman Rick Lazio for that nomination.
OR-Gov: Yet another pollster confirms gubernatorial tossup
Another day, another poll out of Oregon, another data point confirming that former Democratic Governor John Kitzhaber is getting all that he can handle from former NBA baller Chris Dudley. The latest piece of evidence is the SurveyUSA poll showing Dudley leading Kitzhaber by a 46-44 margin. Worth noting--the key ingredient here is how well Dudley is performing in the Portland metro area, home to 2/3 of the state's voters. Kitzhaber only leads in this traditionally Democratic area by two percentage points. At this point, nearly one-in-five Democrats are crossing over to vote for Dudley.
UT-Gov: Has Corroon found the issue to propel him to competitiveness?
Peter Corroon, the Democratic nominee for Governor in Utah, bears the burden of both the climate of the cycle and the deep-red terrain of his state. But he seems to be test-driving an issue that he thinks he can hang around the neck of the incumbent: nuclear waste. Corroon is hammering Republican Governor Gary Herbert for dawdling in the wake of a judge's ruling which could open the door to a nuclear waste facility on reservation land in Utah County. Herbert's office says it is studying the judge's decision.
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
Even before Brian Sandoval crapped the bed on the issues of immigration and SB1070, Rasmussen already had his lead dissipating. In all other races, though, Rasmussen stays very true to form. No matter what the race, you will find Republicans doing well.
IL-Gov: Bill Brady (R) 44%, Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 37%
MO-Sen: Roy Blunt (R) 49%, Robin Carnahan (D) 43%
NV-Gov: Brian Sandoval (R) 50%, Rory Reid (D) 40%
OK-Gov: Mary Fallin (R) 57%, Jari Askins (D) 36%
WI-Sen: Ron Johnson (R) 48%, Sen. Russ Feingold (D) 46%
