Alaska has not really been on the polling radar this year since PPP back in January found Lisa Murkowski with a 52 percent approval, leading a generic Dem 52-25. What a difference a primary challenge makes. Here's the post-primary poll [pdf]:
Scott McAdams (D): 39
Joe Miller (R): 47
Undecided: 14
Scott McAdams (D): 22
Joe Miller (R): 38
Lisa Murkowski (L-inc): 34
Undecided: 6
Scott McAdams (D): 28
Lisa Murkowski (R-inc): 60
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±2.7%)
With Murkowski out of the picture, the Dem McAdams is in the running, which is significant, given the 18 point party identification advantage Republicans have in Alaska. PPP's Tom Jensen comments on that.
The reason for the closeness of the race is Miller's unpopularity. 52% of voters in the state have an unfavorable opinion of while only 36% see him positively. Democrats (84%) are almost universal in their dislike of him and independents array strongly against him as well by a 54/32 margin. His poll numbers within his own party are positive but somewhat tepid at 57/32. Miller is the latest in a long line of candidates unpopular with the general electorate that Republican primary voters have nominated this year joining Sharron Angle, Rand Paul, and Ken Buck. But this political climate may just be GOP friendly enough that all those folks get through in the fall anyway....
In a three way contest with Murkowski running as the Libertarian candidate Miller leads but with only 38% to 34% for Murkowski and 22% for McAdams. Democrats have been hopeful that Murkowski will run on the assumption she would split the Republican vote but her supporters actually go 47-23 for McAdams in a two way contest with Miller.
Murkowski's support is pretty evenly distributed across the board- she gets 38% of independents, 32% of Republicans, and 28% of Democrats. Miller gets 59% of the Republican vote and McAdams gets 57% of the Democratic vote.
We'll have the final primary vote tally in a little over a week (Sept. 8), when all the absentee ballots finally come in. Murkowski would have to get about 60 percent of those absentee votes to prevail, but until then she's unlikely to be announcing any decisions about her plans for the general election.
Update: Well, looks like running on the Libertarian ballot line wouldn't be an option for Murkowski.
