The NEWSWEEK poll over the weekend tries to lighten the mood, with mixed results.
As Democrats prepare for considerable losses in the November elections, there’s reason to believe the party in power may not be headed for the bloodbath it might expect. According to a new NEWSWEEK Poll, President Obama’s approval rating—47 percent—indicates that the party is better off this year than Republicans were in 2006, when the GOP lost 30 House seats, and than the Democrats were in 1994, when they lost 52 House seats.
This isn't the final word on polling by any means, but there are some good points made about current affairs. For example, it's common to talk about Obama's "plummeting" numbers, but sans Rasmussen, they aren't plummeting. (When he gets to the 30's like Carter or George W. Bush, call me):
Obama’s approval has fallen 1 percentage point since the last NEWSWEEK survey in June, but the White House has gained ground on several specific issues, specifically his handling of the economy, which has risen to 40 percent (from 38 percent) over the past two months. Voters also generally approve of Obama’s response to the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, as well as the administration’s handling of the war in Iraq, which Obama is expected to address next week from the Oval Office.
Here's the reason Republicans still have to work to make gains in November:
Still, Democrats’ perceived weakness may not be so simple for the GOP to capitalize on this fall. Republican leaders still must deal with the Bush legacy, which 38 percent fault for today’s economic problems (compared with 19 percent who fault Obama’s policies). The public also strongly opposes extending the Bush tax cuts by a spread of 52 percent who think the cuts should expire at the end of this year, and 38 percent who would like them to be extended.
As I have said early and often, dislike for current conditions does not automatically translate into love of Republicans. Far from it. This and other polling recognizes that the public knows that Bush got us into this mess.
The issue for Democrats is who the public wants to get us out of the mess. For example, in this poll 52% want the Bush tax cuts to expire while 38% don't. Republicans can't run on both tax cuts for the rich and deficit reduction; the two are incompatible.
Can Democrats make that case? On that, stay tuned.
