To all of you who mocked me when I first flagged Mike Castle as being in trouble two months ago, this is my "I told you so" moment:
PPP (PDF). 9/11-12. Likely voters. MoE 3.8% (No trend lines)
Delaware Senate Republican Primary
Mike Castle (R) 44
Christine O'Donnell (R) 47
Castle, having been elected statewide since the Paleolithic Era, is the de facto incumbent in this race. If this poll's results are accurate (and polling primaries is a real bitch, no matter how good PPP is), then Castle will lose his primary on Tuesday. Not only does O'Donnell have the mo and the big endorsements from the likes of Palin, DeMint, the NRA and the teabagger groups, but her voters will be the most motivated in a low-turnout closed (registered Republican-only) primary.
Remember, if O'Donnell wins, we keep this seat. If Castle wins, the advantage shifts heavily to the GOP. That's why the Republican establishment has gone all-out to try and hold this seat. As the Delaware GOP chief said:
"She's not a viable candidate for any office in the state of Delaware," said the state party chairman, Tom Ross, who is backing Castle. "She could not be elected dog catcher."
Damn right.
Back to the poll, PPP digs further into their numbers:
It’s clear that Castle’s popularity has taken a sharp turn in the wrong direction over the last month. An August PPP poll found his favorability with Delaware Republicans at a 60/25 spread. Now his favorables within the party are negative at 43/47. That’s largely a product of 55% of voters in his party saying they think he’s too liberal compared to 37% who think he’s about right.
GOP voters are pretty sharply divided about O’Donnell as well. 45% have a favorable opinion of her with 41% seeing her unfavorably. Only 50% of primary voters think she’s fit to hold public office but she does much better than Castle on the ideology front- 53% think she’s about right.
If all goes well, the Democrats will win their first Senate seat of the year tomorrow night.
