Here are some observations from the new NBC/WSJ poll:
- Tea Party = Republican
Mr. McInturff said the tea-party movement had not necessarily drawn new people into the GOP. Rather, he said, "a substantial chunk of the Republican Party is rebranding themselves."
- The public may think Sarah Palin is unqualified, but the tea party thinks different
The movement's greater strength within the party could be significant beyond 2010, as the party looks toward choosing a nominee in 2012 to challenge Mr. Obama.
A leading beneficiary could be former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who is viewed positively by about two-thirds of tea-party supporters–making her more popular in the movement than the other possible presidential candidates included in the new survey.
- The generic ballot is tightening, not widening (good news for Democrats)
The survey also found growing energy among some core Democratic voting blocs, such as African-Americans and Hispanics—a tightening that is common as an election draws closer, according to pollsters.
The GOP now holds a three-point edge, 46% to 43%, when likely voters are asked which party they would prefer to control Congress. That is down from a nine-point Republican lead a month ago.
- Who a 'likely voter' is still drives the narrative
Still, Republicans retain major advantages, including a fired-up base. Two-thirds of GOP voters say they are intensely interested in the election, compared with about half of Democrats, suggesting that Republican voters are more likely to turn out at the polls.
- It's still the economy, stupid
The poll found that the country's uncertain economy continues to be the overriding issue in the mid-term elections.
Oh, and Bill Clinton looks good to the American public. And note that the Republican party is not a best-selling brand.
The full poll results are here (.pdf).
More commentary in JekyllnHyde's diary.
