I cannot fathom a better way to spend Labor Day than laboring over a hot laptop, working to give you both the numbers and the stories from the campaign trail that have drifted into my inbox over the three-day weekend.
Also, I would have felt a bit guilty taking the Monday off, since there will actually be a brief hiatus for the Wrap starting tomorrow. I head under the knife tomorrow for a relatively minor surgery. Expect the Wrap to resume on Thursday evening.
With that news, let's get after the Labor Day edition of the Wrap....
THE U.S. SENATE
CT-Sen: Former WWE star arrested on burglary and drug charges
This is becoming the story that simply will not go away for GOP Senate hopeful Linda McMahon, who has been hounded repeatedly by issues with her "day job" as one of the owners of the professional wrestling icon known as the WWE. Former WWE superstar Jim "The Anvil" Neidhart was arrested this weekend in what appears to have been a burglary in which prescription drugs were stolen from a Hillsborough County home. Two former WWE stars with prescription drug issues have died within the last month, and the outfit run by McMahon has come under intensified scrutiny for issues with drug abuse associated with the workplace (particularly painkillers).
KY-Sen: SUSA has Paul up big, Conway campaign disputes
There has been little doubt that SurveyUSA has been on a Democratic buzzkill tour for the entirety of 2010, and their newest numbers in Kentucky makes clear that the tour rolls unabated into September. The pollster, working on behalf of two media outlets, finds Rand Paul well over 50% in his bid against Democrat Jack Conway (55-40). Conway's campaign is disputing the poll, saying that the spread between Democrats and Republicans in ancestrally Democratic Kentucky is far too narrow. SUSA countered that there is a difference between actual voter registration (where Dems still dominate in Kentucky) and self-identification, where SUSA says the Republicans are much closer to parity.
LA-Sen: Vitter doesn't get endorsement from state's leading GOPer
The GOP rank-and-file voters might have coalesced around scandal-tarred Republican Senator David Vitter (as evidenced by his huge win in the primaries last week), but the state's biggest GOP celebrity is not joining the bandwagon. Governor Bobby Jindal is declining to endorse his Republican colleague, arguing that "voters can make up their own minds" about who to vote for in November. Jindal claims that he doesn't make endorsements in federal races. If true, that is a recent conversion for the Governor, who backed both Congressional candidates Woody Jenkins and Bill Cassidy in 2008.
OH-Sen: Columbus Dispatch poll gives Portman a double-digit edge
The Columbus Dispatch has long used a curious mail-in poll that defies most conventional parameters for public opinion polling but has on numerous occasions been respectable in its accuracy. It is safe to say that Democrats are hoping that the latest poll from the Dispatch is in error, because the poll has Democrats circling the drain against their Republican foes. On the Senate side, for example, the poll has Republican Rob Portman leading Democrat Lee Fisher by an eye-popping thirteen points (50-37), by far the widest gap seen in that race in recent months.
THE U.S. HOUSE
IN-02: The NRCC's first I-E target is sophomore Rep. Donnelly
This one is kinda interesting: last week, we learned that the first target of the DCCC (the campaign wing for House Democrats) was the open-seat battle in Wisconsin's 7th district, where Republican Sean Duffy is trying to wrest the seat away long held by Democrat David Obey. The NRCC has also picked their first target, and it is a curious one. The NRCC is aiming an independent expenditure advertisement at Joe Donnelly, the second-term Democrat who was re-elected with ease in 2008. He is doubtlessly more vulnerable this time around, with Republican state legislator Jackie Walorski awaiting him. However, there would seem to be quite a few better targets out there. Is that an example of extreme overconfidence, or bad planning (or, perhaps, random chance, I suppose).
MA-04: September's fun primary--longtime Dem incumbent vs. heckler
For those looking for more entertainment in the last big primary hurrah of the season next week, this is a potentially awesomely fun race to watch. You might recall (note: I did not) that Rep. Barney Frank eviscerated a critic of health care at a town hall last year. The woman, who referred to the reform package as a "Nazi policy", was upbraided by Frank. He likened debating with her on the issue as being "like arguing with a dining room table." The woman in question, twenty-something LaRouche devotee Rachel Brown, is now challenging Frank for the Democratic nomination. The two will debate tomorrow night in Newton, Massachusetts. C-Span...you know what to do.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
CA-Gov: Brown uses Labor Day weekend to (re)launch campaign
While Meg Whitman has flooded the zone here in California since February, the campaign of Democratic nominee Jerry Brown has largely been under the radar through the summer. To maintain some presence (and to keep a hand in the face of the Whitman campaign), surrogates and allies have helped carry the load. But Jerry Brown used the holiday weekend to launch his campaign. He began airing his first statewide ad of the campaign, and used the holiday to launch a four-stop blitz throughout the state. Recent polls have shown that Brown's parity with Whitman may well have finally given way, and that the Republican might have moved into a modest lead over the Democrat.
MI-Gov: Republican picks up labor endorsement
This may well be unsurprising (Michigan Kossacks, chime in!), but this cannot be a welcome sign for Democrats in a year where they will desperately need a unified labor front in an uphill battle. The Michigan Regional Council of Carpenters and Millwrights, a union representing 18,000 construction workers, threw their support to GOP nominee Rick Snyder. Democrat Virg Bernero had cornered the market on most labor support in the state, however, including the exceptionally important support of the UAW and the Michigan Education Association.
OH-Gov: Dem incumbent down twelve, according to Dispatch poll
That all-mail Columbus Dispatch poll also looked at the gubernatorial race, with results that were very nearly as pessimistic as the Senate numbers. The new poll gives Republican challenger John Kasich a lead of a dozen points (49-37) over Democratic Governor Ted Strickland. The poll also gave the Republicans the edge in every downballot office, with leads ranging from 2-9 points.
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
Given the holiday weekend, the House of Ras is predictably quiet today, giving us the critically important numbers from the Nebraska Governor's race (hey! we are making up ground there...) and the Idaho Senate race (where...well...we are not making up ground).
ID-Sen: Sen. Michael Crapo (R) 63%, Tom Sullivan (D) 24%
NE-Gov: Gov. David Heineman (R) 61%, Mike Meister (D) 28%
