Daily Kos Elections

Daily Kos Elections https://www.dailykos.com/user/Daily Kos Elections/rss/index.xml News Community Action Copyright 2005 - Steal what you want Mon, 11 May 2020 14:29:49 +0000 Mon, 11 May 2020 14:29:49 +0000 Daily Kos rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos) Daily Kos rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos) Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 5/11 https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/5/11/1943696/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-5-11 Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. Please note: The Live Digest is a 2016 and 2020 Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy. Sign up <a href="http://dailykos.com/electionsdigest" target="_blank">here</a> to receive the Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest in your inbox each weekday. rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) DailyKosElections DKELiveDigests _1943696 Mon, 11 May 2020 13:00:10 +0000 Morning Digest: Flipping the Senate is within reach as three key race ratings shift toward Democrats https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/5/11/1944074/-Morning-Digest-Flipping-the-Senate-is-within-reach-as-three-key-race-ratings-shift-toward-Democrats The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar. <h4>Leading Off</h4> <a href="#1" name="1">●</a> Race Ratings: As the battle for control of the Senate grows more competitive, Daily Kos Elections is moving a <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kHpGnR2VSAie2HYcF4R0-hv2Cc0EpdQ8Kkck51Hh2lk/edit#gid=2071079593">trio of contests</a> in the Democrats’ direction, though all three Republican incumbents very much remain in the fight. Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst’s race moves from Likely to Lean Republican, while Maine Sen. Susan Collins' and North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis’ seats have gone from Lean Republican to Tossup. With these changes, <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kHpGnR2VSAie2HYcF4R0-hv2Cc0EpdQ8Kkck51Hh2lk/edit#gid=2071079593" title="">we now rate three Republican-held seats as Tossups</a> (the two above plus Arizona) and one as Lean Democratic (Colorado). If Democrats can sweep these races and retake the White House, they'll win back control of the Senate even in the likely event that Alabama Sen. Doug Jones loses his bid for re-election. rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) andykim BoldPAC California DailyKosElections DavidRichter DefendingMainStreet Delaware DKE2020SenateRaceRatings DKEMorningDigest Elections FrankMrvan IA-Sen IN-01 JimHarper JohnJames KateGibbs Louisiana LuluSeikaly MaraCandelariaReardon MarcVeasey ME-Sen MelissaBorom Michigan Minnesota MISEN NC-Sen NJ-03 SabrinaHaake ThomasMcDermott TX-03 _1944074 Mon, 11 May 2020 12:00:07 +0000 Daily Kos Elections weekly open thread https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/5/8/1943702/-Daily-Kos-Elections-weekly-open-thread <div class="dk-editor-embed embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9 center-block"> <div class="remove-embed-content">x</div> <div class="dk-editor-embed embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9 center-block"> <div class="remove-embed-content"><a class="new_iframe_placeholder" href="#">x</a></div> <a class="iframe_placeholder youtube dk-embed" href="//youtube.com/watch?v=_UoneXjfBC0" title="" data-frameborder="0" data-height="281" data-src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/_UoneXjfBC0" data-width="500">YouTube Video</a></div> </div> rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) DKEOpenThreads _1943702 Fri, 08 May 2020 22:17:38 +0000 Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 5/8 https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/5/8/1941966/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-5-8 Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. Please note: The Live Digest is a 2016 and 2020 Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy. Sign up <a href="http://dailykos.com/electionsdigest" target="_blank">here</a> to receive the Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest in your inbox each weekday. <div></div> <div><a name="update-1588352379000"></a></div> <div><a name="update-1588952472000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588952472000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588952472000">Friday, May 8, 2020 · 3:41:12 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> IN-01: The Congressional Hispanic Caucus’ BOLD PAC has <a href="https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1258545931588268032">spent about $150,000 on mailers</a> supporting state Rep. Mara Candelaria Reardon in the June 2 Democratic primary. Candelaria Reardon is one of several candidates competing to succeed retiring Rep. Pete Visclosky in this reliably blue seat in the northwestern corner of the state, and there’s no clear frontrunner at this point. Attorney and environmental advocate Sabrina Haake, who has self-funded most of her campaign, ended March with a <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">$237,000 to $161,000 cash-on-hand lead</a> over Hammond Mayor Thomas McDermott, who considered challenging the incumbent before Visclosky decided not to seek re-election. Candelaria Reardon wasn’t far behind with $146,000 available, while 2018 Secretary of State nominee Jim Harper had $81,000 to spend. North Township Trustee Frank Mrvan, who has Visclosky’s endorsement, had just $43,000 on-hand, while businesswoman Melissa Borom did not report raising anything. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588953798000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588953798000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588953798000">Friday, May 8, 2020 · 4:03:18 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> NJ-03: Defending Main Street, a super PAC that backs establishment Republicans in primaries, has <a href="https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/super-pac-spends-100k-to-boost-gibbs-in-nj-3-primary/">spent $100,000 on mailers</a> boosting former Burlington County Freeholder Kate Gibbs and opposing wealthy businessman David Richter in the July GOP primary. While Republicans <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/9/16/1885495/-Morning-Digest-Top-GOP-challenger-to-Democratic-Louisiana-governor-trails-far-behind-in-fundraising#7">reportedly recruited Gibbs</a> to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Andy Kim, her fundraising has been very disappointing in this <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/2/1933477/-Morning-Digest-Mirroring-Trump-Texas-GOP-candidate-s-ad-fans-anti-Chinese-racism-over-coronavirus#25">very expensive district</a>. Gibbs outraised Richter <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">$71,000 to $19,000</a> during the first quarter of 2020, but Richter self-funded another $100,000 and ended March with a large $462,000 to $112,000 cash-on-hand lead. Kim hauled in $760,000 during this time and had a hefty $2.7 million available. However, despite the GOP’s fundraising woes, this is still tough turf for Democrats: This seat, which <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16GoSYgRx5Mqfyfd355FMDRtr13tOAXFDOT94d9Dzwt0/edit#gid=0">includes the Philadelphia suburbs and central Jersey Shore</a>, swung <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">from 52-47 Obama to 51-45 Trump</a>. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588953923000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588953923000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588953923000">Friday, May 8, 2020 · 4:05:23 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> TX-03: Attorney Lulu Seikaly <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/theblast/2020/05/08/">picked up an endorsement on Friday</a> from Rep. Marc Veasey, who serves as a regional DCCC vice chair, in the July Democratic runoff to take on freshman GOP Rep. Van Taylor. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588964222000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588964222000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588964222000">Friday, May 8, 2020 · 6:57:02 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> MI-Sen: Advertising Analytics reports that Republican John James has <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2020/05/08/the-special-election-in-wisconsin-787453" title="">launched a new $800,000 buy</a> that will last for two weeks. The <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxtPxbGXjs8&feature=youtu.be">commercial touts</a> James’ time in the Army and in business and does not mention Democratic incumbent Gary Peters. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588966594000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588966594000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588966594000">Friday, May 8, 2020 · 7:36:34 PM +00:00 · David Nir </a> <div class="live-update-content"> Election Changes Please bookmark our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/1/14/1855760/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-primary-calendar" title="">statewide 2020 primary calendar</a> and our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/2/17/1917521/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-calendar-of-key-elections-across-the-country" title="">calendar of key downballot races</a>, both of which we're updating continually as changes are finalized. • California: Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom <a href="https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/05/08/governor-newsom-issues-executive-order-to-protect-public-health-by-mailing-every-registered-voter-a-ballot-ahead-of-the-november-general-election/" target="_blank" title="">has issued an order</a> directing that all California voters be sent a mail-in ballot for the November general election, though in-person voting will still remain an option. Leaders in the Democratic-run legislature <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/5/8/1943443/-Morning-Digest-New-poll-shows-a-tight-Democratic-primary-contest-for-Massachusetts-Senate-seat#2">plan to pass a bill</a> that would do the same thing, but they had asked Newsom to issue this order so that election officials could begin making the necessary preparations immediately. • Delaware: Democratic Gov. John Carney <a href="https://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/politics/2020/05/07/delaware-postpones-presidential-primary-second-time-amid-coronavirus/3088435001/" title="">has postponed Delaware's presidential primary</a> a second time, from June 2 to July 7. The delay will give the state more time to send absentee ballots applications to all registered Democrats and Republicans who have not yet requested one, a move that Carney also just announced. <a href="https://governor.delaware.gov/health-soe/fifteenth-state-of-emergency/">Carney's order</a> also postpones all school board elections, which previously were moved from May 12 to June 16, until July 21. • Louisiana: Voting rights advocates, including the NAACP, <a href="https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/coronavirus/article_eea2ef82-90b6-11ea-81f4-1f7d6d593af4.html" title="">have filed a federal lawsuit</a> asking that Louisiana's requirement that voters present an excuse in order to vote absentee be waived for all elections that take place during the coronavirus pandemic. <a href="https://www.naacpldf.org/wp-content/uploads/FILED-COMPLAINT_Power-Coalition-v.-Edwards-20-cv-00283_20200507.pdf">The suit</a> also seeks to waive the requirement that absentee voters obtain a witness' signature for their ballots. In addition, plaintiffs want the early voting period extended from seven days to 14. • Michigan: Michigan officials <a href="https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2020/05/signatures-required-to-run-for-some-offices-in-michigan-reduced.html">have accepted a federal judge's original plan</a> for easing ballot access requirements for congressional and judicial candidates despite an appeals court ruling that overturned that plan. As a result, the filing deadline for such candidates was extended from April 21 to May 8, the number of signatures required was halved, and candidates were allowed to collect and file signatures electronically. • Minnesota: Democrats in the Minnesota House <a href="https://www.minnpost.com/state-government/2020/05/minnesota-senate-passes-2020-election-bill-more-money-for-no-excuse-absentee-balloting-but-no-all-vote-by-mail/">have given up on a plan</a> to conduct the state's elections by mail after the Republican-run state Senate refused to consider it. Instead, both chambers passed a compromise bill that appropriates federal funds to promote absentee voting, help process an expected surge of mail ballots, and open more polling places to reduce crowding. </div> </div> rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) DailyKosElections DKELiveDigests _1941966 Fri, 08 May 2020 13:00:10 +0000 Morning Digest: New poll shows a tight Democratic primary contest for Massachusetts Senate seat https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/5/8/1943443/-Morning-Digest-New-poll-shows-a-tight-Democratic-primary-contest-for-Massachusetts-Senate-seat The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar. <h4>Leading Off</h4> <a href="#1" name="1">●</a> MA-Sen: On behalf of UMass Lowell, YouGov is out with the first survey of the September Democratic primary that we've seen since March, and it gives Rep. Joe Kennedy III a <a href="https://www.uml.edu/docs/2020-COVID-Topline_tcm18-325770.pdf#page=28">44-42 edge</a> against incumbent Ed Markey. YouGov's February poll for the school <a href="https://www.uml.edu/News/press-releases/2020/2020-Mass-Primary-Poll.aspx">found Kennedy up 35-34</a>, though that survey sampled likely voters in Massachusetts' March presidential primary. Whoever wins the Democratic nod should have no trouble in the general election in this very blue state. rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) AFL-CIO AndrewGarbarino AndrewYoung BethParlato BrendaLopezRomero CA-10 California CarolynBourdeaux ChrisJacobs ClubForGrowth CorkyMessner DailyKosElections DKEMorningDigest DonaldBolduc DougCollins EdMarkey Elections EMILYsList EvelynFarkas GA-07 GA-Sen-A GA-Sen-B HankAaron JeanneShaheen JoeKennedyIII johneaves JoshHarder KarenHandel KathaleenWall LynneHomrick MA-Sen MarkGonsalves MartinLutherKingIII Massachusetts Michigan MikeCooney MT-Gov NabilahIslam NewJersey NH-Sen NY-02 NY-17 NY-27 Oklahoma reneeunterman RichMcCormick TedHowze TeresaTomlinson TX-22 U.S.ChamberofCommerce YouGov ZahraKarinshak _1943443 Fri, 08 May 2020 12:00:07 +0000 Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 5/7 https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/5/7/1941965/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-5-7 Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. Please note: The Live Digest is a 2016 and 2020 Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy. Sign up <a href="http://dailykos.com/electionsdigest" target="_blank">here</a> to receive the Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest in your inbox each weekday. <div></div> <div><a name="update-1588352379000"></a></div> <div><a name="update-1588867224000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588867224000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588867224000">Thursday, May 7, 2020 · 4:00:24 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> MT-Gov: The state AFL-CIO <a href="https://mtstandard.com/opinion/columnists/guest-view-afl-cio-endorses-cooney-schreiner/article_ba941864-c34e-59eb-848d-73412ca8cb15.html">endorsed Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney</a> this week ahead of the June 2 Democratic primary. Cooney had <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/7/1934953/-Conservative-courts-order-Wisconsin-election-to-proceed-risks-to-health-and-democracy-be-damned#15">previously earned the backing</a> of the Montana Federation of Public Employees, which his campaign described as the largest union in the state. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588867627000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588867627000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588867627000">Thursday, May 7, 2020 · 4:07:07 PM +00:00 · Matt Booker </a> <div class="live-update-content"> GA-Sen-A: Former Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson is <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uE1Ge0gCwt8">up with a new ad</a> ahead of the June 9 Democratic primary. The commercial highlights endorsements from three prominent Black Georgians: former Atlanta Mayor and U.S. Ambassador Andrew Young, former Major League Baseball player Hank Aaron, and Martin Luther King III, the son of the iconic civil rights leader. Tomlinson’s accomplishments as mayor of Georgia’s third-largest city are noted as the spot’s voiceover says the endorsing trio “know extraordinary leadership when they see it.” The ad comes just days after one of Tomlinson’s primary opponents, 2017 House nominee Jon Ossoff, went up with <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/5/6/1942844/-Morning-Digest-GOP-primary-for-swingy-New-Mexico-House-seat-reaches-new-low-in-nastiness#7">a spot touting the endorsement</a> of one the most visible Black figures in the state, Rep. John Lewis. It also comes after last Sunday’s Democratic primary debate where, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Tomlinson <a href="https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/democratic-senate-candidates-jockey-front-runner-debate/nZg2RpyW7cgpNsrV9H5s1M/">faced accusations</a> of not doing enough outreach to the Black community in Columbus during her tenure as mayor. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588867787000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588867787000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588867787000">Thursday, May 7, 2020 · 4:09:47 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> NY-02: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2020/05/07/california-gop-house-candidates-posts-demeaned-muslims-mocked-parkland-survivor-787409">thrown its support behind Assemblyman Andrew Garbarino</a> in the June 23 GOP primary to succeed retiring Rep. Peter King. Garbarino already had the backing of much of the party establishment including King and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who <a href="https://www.garbarinoforny.com/news/kevin-mccarthy-endorses-garbarino/">endorsed the assemblyman back in March</a>. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588867948000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588867948000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588867948000">Thursday, May 7, 2020 · 4:12:28 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> NY-17: EMILY’s List has <a href="https://www.emilyslist.org/news/entry/emilys-list-endorses-evelyn-farkas-in-new-yorks-17th-congressional-district">endorsed former Obama administration official Evelyn Farkas</a> in the crowded June 23 Democratic primary for this open seat. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588873885000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588873885000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588873885000">Thursday, May 7, 2020 · 5:51:25 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> GA-Sen-B: On Thursday, former GOP Rep. Karen Handel <a href="https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/karen-handel-backs-doug-collins-bid-for-senate/XhiU6kCpi8cwpAiMQDKboK/">endorsed Rep. Doug Collins</a> over appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler in the November all-party primary. Handel, who is trying to regain her old 6th Congressional District from freshman Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath, doesn’t face any serious opposition in next month’s primary, so there’s little risk to her by taking sides in the Senate contest. However, Handel’s decision to do so is another sign indication of just how bad things are going for Loeffler. Republicans initially hoped the Loeffler, who was appointed to this seat late last year, would be able to help the party reverse its dramatic Trump-era decline in the Atlanta suburbs, especially among women. Handel, who lost a suburban House seat last cycle, would have especially benefited if Loeffler had actually been able to boost Team Red’s prospects there. That very much doesn’t seem to be happening, though. Loeffler has been on the defensive since mid-March <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/6/1934586/-Morning-Digest-California-s-property-tax-revolt-may-finally-get-rolled-back-with-new-ballot-measure#10">over her pandemic-related stock transactions</a>, and polls from Collins campaign and a Collins ally have <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/5/4/1942297/-Morning-Digest-New-GOP-poll-finds-both-of-Georgia-s-Republican-senators-in-danger#1">found her extremely unpopular statewide</a>. The senator recently launched a $4 million ad campaign to <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/5/5/1942591/-Morning-Digest-Republican-accused-of-pandemic-profiteering-defends-herself-with-her-private-jet">try and rehabilitate her image</a>, but Handel seems to be betting that it won’t work in her old constituency. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588875875000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588875875000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588875875000">Thursday, May 7, 2020 · 6:24:35 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> CA-10: Politico’s Ally Mutnick reported on Wednesday that Republican Ted Howze, who is challenging freshman Democratic Rep. Josh Harder, has a <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/06/gop-candidates-posts-demeaned-muslims-and-mocked-parkland-shooting-survivor-241429">long history of bigoted social media posts</a>. Howze’s Twitter and Facebook accounts had written or shared messages attacking both Muslims and one of the survivors of the Parkland high school massacre; Howze’s page also used a racist stereotype against Rep. Maxine Waters, who is one of the most prominent Black members of Congress. These posts were published from January 2017 until March of the following year around the time that he launched an unsuccessful bid against GOP Rep. Jeff Denham in the top-two primary. Howze responded by <a href="https://slate.com/culture/2010/06/the-shaggy-defense-americas-favorite-new-legal-term.html">employing the Shaggy Defense</a> and said that, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/06/gop-candidates-posts-demeaned-muslims-and-mocked-parkland-shooting-survivor-241429">while he didn’t dispute</a> that these “negative and ugly ideas” were shared on his accounts, he had nothing to do with them. Howze said, “I made the mistake of allowing others access to these accounts unknowingly — and I am angered, horrified and extremely offended that these ugly ideas were shared or posted by those individuals several years ago.” Howze did not respond to Mutnick’s inquiries about who could have written or shared these posts or why they were only removed the day he launched his 2018 bid. Harder <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=830450">unseated Denham 52-48</a> after a very expensive race in this <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">49-46 Clinton seat</a>, but Daily Kos Elections rated this contest as <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kHpGnR2VSAie2HYcF4R0-hv2Cc0EpdQ8Kkck51Hh2lk/edit#gid=178550510">Likely Democratic</a> even before this story broke. Howze has struggled to raise money, and while he <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">self-funded close to $600,000 though March</a>, it’s not clear how much more he can throw down. Harder, by contrast, has been a very strong fundraiser, and he ended the first quarter with an enormous $3.6 million to $101,000 cash-on-hand lead. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588878506000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588878506000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588878506000">Thursday, May 7, 2020 · 7:08:26 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> GA-07: 2018 nominee Carolyn Bourdeaux is <a href="https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/election-2020-bourdeaux-debuts-introduce-herself-voters/T1ff3OoK0RlAW0f8bfKezO/">up with her first TV ad</a> ahead of the June 9 Democratic primary, and her campaign says that it’s running on cable for $30,000. Bourdeaux <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLVapRIjWm8">tells the audience</a>, “When I hear from families struggling to afford health care, I think of my own parents who drained their life savings to pay for prescription drugs.” She continues by saying that, especially during the current crisis, it’s vital “[t]o fix your health care and make our economy work for everyone.” Both parties have crowded primaries in this competitive open seat in the northeast Atlanta suburbs, but only two Democratic candidates had much money to spend at the end of March. Bourdeaux held a $1.1 million to $504,000 cash-on-hand lead over state Sen. Zahra Karinshak, while former DNC official Nabilah Islam had just $82,000 to spend. Two other candidates, former Fulton County Commission chair John Eaves and state Rep. Brenda Lopez Romero, had $56,000 and $38,000 to spend, respectively. On the GOP side, state Sen. Renee Unterman led physician Rich McCormick, a fellow self-funder, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">$726,000 to $542,000 in cash-on-hand</a>. Businesswoman Lynne Homrich had $273,000 to spend, while businessman Mark Gonsalves had $165,000. Candidates need to win a majority of the vote to claim their party’s nomination without going through an August runoff. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588881325000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588881325000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588881325000">Thursday, May 7, 2020 · 7:55:25 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> MA-Sen: On behalf of UMass Lowell, YouGov is out with the first survey of the September Democratic primary that we’ve seen since March, and gives Rep. Joe Kennedy III a <a href="https://www.uml.edu/docs/2020-COVID-Topline_tcm18-325770.pdf#page=28">44-42 edge</a> against incumbent Ed Markey. YouGov’s February poll for the school <a href="https://www.uml.edu/News/press-releases/2020/2020-Mass-Primary-Poll.aspx">found Kennedy up 35-34</a>, though that survey sampled likely voters in Massachusetts’ March presidential primary. Whoever wins the Democratic nod should have no trouble in the general election in this very blue state. A few polls taken before Kennedy launched his campaign in September gave the congressman, who hails from what is arguably America’s most prominent political family (his late grandfather is Robert F. Kennedy), <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2019/09/07/poll-kennedy-would-lead-markey-points-head-head-senate-matchup/mt8M4Fd2YQ7JlAIBUhjePP/story.html">a clear lead over Markey</a>, but surveys taken earlier this year <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/3/1923651/-Morning-Digest-The-first-downballot-primaries-of-2020-are-tonight#3">found a more competitive race</a>. However, Kennedy very much has pulled ahead in the money race since he began campaigning for this seat. While the two were <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/9/21/1886798/-Massachusetts-Rep-Joe-Kennedy-III-launches-challenge-to-Sen-Ed-Markey-in-Democratic-primary">about evenly matched in June</a>, Kennedy ended March with a <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938848/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-Senate-fundraising-reports-roundup">$6.2 million to $4.4 million</a> cash-on-hand lead. As we noted when Kennedy <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/9/21/1886798/-Massachusetts-Rep-Joe-Kennedy-III-launches-challenge-to-Sen-Ed-Markey-in-Democratic-primary">began his campaign</a>, it’s hard to find any ideological fault lines between the two candidates. Kennedy has been arguing that he <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/8/26/1881510/-Joe-Kennedy-III-spending-couple-weeks-considering-Democratic-primary-bid-vs-Massachusetts-senator">can bring change to the political system</a> Markey’s inhabited since before Kennedy was born, but this is hardly a classic insider vs. outsider battle. Both men are close to their party’s leadership, but it’s Markey who has the support of New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a favorite of anti-establishment progressives. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588881807000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588881807000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588881807000">Thursday, May 7, 2020 · 8:03:27 PM +00:00 · Matt Booker </a> <div class="live-update-content"> NH-Sen: Attorney Corky Messner is <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHbfT_Z0Mhs">up with a new spot</a> ahead of the September Republican primary. The ad, <a href="https://www.wmur.com/article/nh-primary-source-in-first-tv-ad-of-us-senate-campaign-messner-introduces-himself-to-voters/32396170#">backed by a six-figure buy</a>, highlights Messer's business success and military background to argue that he has strong leadership abilities. His military experience is also used to nod at one of the GOP’s favorite talking points, socialism, when the voiceover exclaims, “As an Army captain and Ranger during the Cold War, he led men in our battle against socialism.” Messner is facing a one-on-one battle with retired Army Brig. Gen. Donald Bolduc. Although Bolduc outraised him in the last fundraising quarter <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938848/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-Senate-fundraising-reports-roundup">$170,000 to $42,000</a>, the deep-pocketed Messner holds a large cash advantage over Bolduc after he self-funded $2.1 million in the first three months of 2020. Messner also holds a huge $3 million to $102,000 cash-on-hand lead over Bolduc. Whoever emerges from this primary will be in for a tough race against incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, who brought in $2 million last quarter and possesses a $7.1 million war chest, in a race <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/2/27/1922458/-Daily-Kos-Elections-releases-initial-Senate-race-ratings-for-2020">Daily Kos Elections rates as Likely Democratic</a>. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588883961000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588883961000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588883961000">Thursday, May 7, 2020 · 8:39:21 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> TX-22: Self-funder Kathaleen Wall made national news last month with a <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/2/1933477/-Morning-Digest-Mirroring-Trump-Texas-GOP-candidate-s-ad-fans-anti-Chinese-racism-over-coronavirus#1">racist anti-Chinese commercial</a>, and she’s out with <a href="https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1258413301329014784">another ad</a> ahead of the July GOP runoff that pledges she’ll “make China pay.” The narrator declares at the end, “For Congress, it’s Kathaleen Wall against communist China.” </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588887590000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588887590000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588887590000">Thursday, May 7, 2020 · 9:39:50 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> NY-27: The coronavirus pandemic led Gov. Andrew Cuomo to reschedule the special election for this <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">60-35 Trump seat</a> from late April to June 23, the same day as New York’s primaries, and that’s <a href="https://buffalonews.com/2020/05/06/new-ads-and-endorsements-shove-ny-27-race-out-of-covid-19-shadow/">created a complicated situation</a> on the GOP side. State Sen. Chris Jacobs is Team Red’s nominee for the special election to fill the final months of disgraced ex-Rep. Chris Collins’ term, but he’s also facing oncoming fire on his right flank in the primary from attorney and former Fox contributor Beth Parlato. Parlato recently went up with a TV ad <a href="https://www.facebook.com/bethforcongress/videos/684842942272910/?__xts__%5B0%5D=68.ARCMipxdTLBVLAU4ENmHBXZH18yhh_Dlv3_XxJHB5UmfCRPeTZyWSOAMGyE1-Zew7C2CahI2tBdqUlNQmkw6-AgwmbdjtLIbDDzCspu7TYIneLrUo0NiDUTDQInOvHdQEiQkNoZVs3zCWl-Plm282-QajtGws4aMKpUn-bdraj3pAD45gN9j92BwcxZqVqnEQRJ9WQleP-OMWWiIGBBVuhhNEoo0T-OXa_VzeeFmFEYVoqxN7iujP3I0frY5YNkhurZ3ya_LacO639gpBA0T51BRbN18NNM_7yfrJmKB0t7vZBVjGOdC8R_Xo73dSpjo-3pG5hlN9NttXQOOquffqwJBqXcG_rakzfgB8t-U5NIExnD-oQbla6q0udmusA&__tn__=-R">featuring an actor playing an IRS agent</a> who declares, “The IRS does not endorse candidates. But if we did, we’d choose Chris Jacobs.” The actor goes on to say that Jacobs “shares our values” and supported $5 billion in new taxes. He continues, “We can’t let Beth Parlato into Congress. She’s like President Trump, a tax cutter.” Parlato may also be getting some outside support soon. The anti-tax Club for Growth has <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/2/10/1917917/-Morning-Digest-New-York-conservatives-gear-up-to-take-down-GOP-establishment-backed-House-candidate#1">long had it out for Jacobs</a>, who <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/5/21/1859155/-Morning-Digest-Michigan-GOP-congressman-picks-up-a-primary-challenger-after-anti-Trump-tweetstorm#14">identified as pro-choice</a> during his failed 2006 run for lieutenant governor, and its president told The Buffalo News’ Robert McCarthy <a href="https://buffalonews.com/2020/05/06/new-ads-and-endorsements-shove-ny-27-race-out-of-covid-19-shadow/">that it would “likely” endorse Parlato</a>. However, it remains to be seen how much aid the group would provide. Back in January, right after party leaders nominated Jacobs for the special (in New York special elections, county party leaders choose congressional nominees rather than primary voters), the Club publicly said that it was “prepared to spend seven figures opposing Jacobs,” but it wouldn’t commit to any kind of amount this week. Even if the Club goes all-in, though, it’s still going to be difficult to deny Jacobs the GOP nod. Another candidate, Erie County Comptroller Stefan Mychajliw, is also in, and he and Parlato may end up appealing to the same type of voters who aren’t happy with the state senator. Jacobs also will probably benefit from being the GOP’s nominee in the concurrent special election since his opponents will need to win over plenty of Republican voters who would be supporting Jacobs in the other contest. Jacobs also has plenty of important allies. Donald Trump endorsed him in February for the special election, and Jacobs has made sure to remind voters of that in his ads. Parlato responded by griping to McCarthy that Trump’s endorsement only applied to the special, which was set for April at the time. She’s right, but that’s a distinction that may be lost on most voters now that both races are on the same day. The deep-pocketed U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which often finds itself on the opposite side of the Club in primaries, also threw its support behind Jacobs this week. This seat, which includes some of the Buffalo suburbs, is very tough turf for Team Blue, though it’s possible that the GOP chaos will give Democrat Nate McMurray a better opening in the special election. McMurray faces no opposition in the primary, so he’ll take on the GOP primary winner in the general election. P.S. If Jacobs does lose the primary on the same day he wins the seat in a special general election, he’ll have some company in political nerd trivia. In 1986, Hawaii Democrat Neil Abercrombie won the special election for the 1st District by <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=2542">defeating Republican Pat Saiki 30-29</a>, while fellow Democrat Mufi Hannemann took 28%. (All the candidates competed on one ballot without any sort of a primary or runoff, a system that <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=603337">cost Democrats this seat in a 2010 special</a>.) However, it was Hannemann who <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=312009">defeated Abercrombie 40-39</a> in the regular primary, so Abercrombie arrived in the House as a lame-duck congressman. Saiki beat Hannemann a few months later but left in 1990 to unsuccessfully run for the Senate, and Abercrombie won the seat back. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588892412000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588892412000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588892412000">Thursday, May 7, 2020 · 11:00:12 PM +00:00 · David Nir </a> <div class="live-update-content"> Election Changes California: The chairs of the election committees in both California's Senate and Assembly <a href="https://sd34.senate.ca.gov/news/562020-senator-umberg-and-assemblymember-berman-announce-legislative-package-protect-voting">have introduced legislation</a> that would send every voter a ballot for the November general election and also ensure that a sufficient number of in-person voting remain in operation. The lawmakers <a href="https://sd34.senate.ca.gov/sites/sd34.senate.ca.gov/files/elections_chairs_letter_to_gov_re_nov_2020_election_signed_final_may6.pdf">have also asked</a> Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom to issue an executive order requiring that all voters be mailed a ballot so that election officials can immediately begin procuring the necessary equipment without having to wait for the new legislation to become law. Massachusetts: Democratic Secretary of State Bill Galvin <a href="https://www.masslive.com/coronavirus/2020/05/in-response-to-coronavirus-massachusetts-secretary-of-state-william-galvin-releases-early-voting-vote-by-mail-package.html">has introduced a proposal</a> to allow voters to vote by mail in Massachusetts' Sept. 1 primary; currently, the state does not allow mail voting without an excuse in primaries. The plan would also establish a week of in-person early voting before the primary and increase early voting before the November general election from 12 days to 18. In addition, the state would allow voters to request absentee ballots online and would also set up drop-boxes at which ballots could be returned. For Galvin's proposal to take effect, the legislature would have to pass it into law, though several other competing bills are pending before lawmakers. One would automatically send ballots to all voters, something Galvin has opposed. Michigan: The Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals <a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2020/05/05/appeals-court-michigan-decides-how-ease-ballot-requirements/5172856002/">has overturned a lower court decision</a> extending Michigan's filing deadline by two weeks and halving the number of signatures candidates must turn in, saying the judge abused his discretion. However, the appeals court agreed with U.S. District Judge Terrence Berg that Michigan's failure to ease its ballot access laws while the state's stay-at-home order has been in effect violated the rights of candidates. Where Berg erred, said a majority of the appeals panel, was in prescribing specific changes to Michigan's ballot access procedures. Instead, the court said it was "instructing the State to select its own adjustments so as to reduce the burden on ballot access" and even suggested that if officials voluntarily adopted Berg's adjustments, that would pass constitutional muster. In response, officials said <a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2020/05/07/us-senate-candidate-people-run-petition-gatherers/3087649001/" title="">they would agree to postpone the filing deadline</a> until May 11 (Berg initially moved it from April 21 to May 8), and reduce the required number of signatures to 70% of the normal amount. Berg had not issued a new ruling as of Thursday evening. Oklahoma: Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt <a href="https://www.koco.com/article/bill-requiring-absentee-ballots-to-be-notarized-with-exemptions-during-pandemic-heads-to-gov-stitts-desk/32407774" title="">has signed a law</a> reinstating a requirement that Oklahoma voters have their absentee ballots notarized, just days after the state Supreme Court <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/5/6/1942844/-Morning-Digest-GOP-primary-for-swingy-New-Mexico-House-seat-reaches-new-low-in-nastiness#5" title="">struck down the law</a>. While new law temporarily waives the notarization requirement during a public health emergency, when doing so it instead requires voters to present a copy of their photo ID, something that isn’t easily obtained either for voters who don’t have a home printer or access to transportation. The court had ruled that the notarization requirement did not apply to absentee ballots under existing state law, but Oklahoma's Republican-run legislature responded <a href="https://oklahoman.com/article/5661815/house-republicans-reverse-court-ruling-on-absentee-ballots" title="">by quickly passing legislation</a> to make the requirement explicit and add the photo ID requirement during emergencies, which hadn’t applied even before this litigation. Oklahoma is one of just three states, along with Mississippi and Missouri, that require ballots to be notarized (several others let voters obtain a witness signature if they can’t get a notary’s signature) </div> </div> rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) DailyKosElections DKELiveDigests _1941965 Thu, 07 May 2020 13:00:15 +0000 Morning Digest: Stacey Abrams nearly won, but our new data shows the power of the GOP's gerrymanders https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/5/7/1943156/-Morning-Digest-Stacey-Abrams-nearly-won-but-our-new-data-shows-the-power-of-the-GOP-s-gerrymanders The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar. <h4>Leading Off</h4> <a href="#1" name="1">●</a> Governor-by-LD: Democrats have been making gains in Georgia over the last few years, and Stacey Abrams' narrow 50-49 loss to Republican Brian Kemp in the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/16/politics/stacey-abrams-concession/index.html">tainted 2018 election for governor</a> suggests Team Blue has a path to win statewide. However, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/5/6/1943140/-Stacey-Abrams-nearly-won-Georgia-but-our-new-data-shows-the-power-of-the-GOP-s-gerrymanders" target="_blank">our new data</a>, which was crunched for us by elections analyst Bill Coningsby, illustrates that the GOP's gerrymanders will make it difficult for Democrats to take control of either chamber of the state legislature this year. That in turn would ensure that Republicans control redistricting once again next year. Democrats have gained ground over the last few years, thanks to the damage Donald Trump has done to his party's standing in the well-educated and diversifying Atlanta suburbs, an area that was still reliably red when the GOP initially redrew the maps after the 2010 census. The GOP's majority in the House <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2018">dropped from 114-64 to 105-75</a> after the 2018 elections, and its edge in the Senate also <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia_State_Senate_elections,_2018">nosed down from 37-19 to 35-21</a>. rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) AngusMcQuilken CA-25 CO-Sen CoryGardner DailyKosElections DanKoh DKEMorningDigest Elections EricHolcomb Florida GAStateHouse GAstatesenate Georgia Governor-by-LD IN-Gov JamieZahlawayBelsito JoeKennedyIII JoeRull JohnHickenlooper KeatingResearch LorenaGarcia MA-04 MA-Sen Massachusetts Melanson MikeGarcia MontanaStateUniversity NancyGoroff NewYork NRCC NY-01 OnSightPublicAffairs SethMoulton Texas ThomasShack Vermont WoodyMyers _1943156 Thu, 07 May 2020 12:00:06 +0000 Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 5/6 https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/5/6/1941964/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-5-6 Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. Please note: The Live Digest is a 2016 and 2020 Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy. Sign up <a href="http://dailykos.com/electionsdigest" target="_blank">here</a> to receive the Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest in your inbox each weekday. <div></div> <div><a name="update-1588352379000"></a></div> <div><a name="update-1588785318000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588785318000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588785318000">Wednesday, May 6, 2020 · 5:15:18 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> IN-Gov: We were surprised when Democrat Woody Myers <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/16/1937612/-Morning-Digest-Yet-another-poll-finds-Democrats-positioned-to-flip-GOP-held-Arizona-Senate-seat#9">reported bringing in more money </a>than GOP Gov. Eric Holcomb during the first quarter of 2020, but it turns out that Myers didn’t actually outraise the incumbent. According to Inside Elections’ Jacob Rubashkin, Myers’ team had <a href="https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1257863579514089472">accidentally double counted several entries</a> in their initial filing: Holcomb outpaced him $391,000 to $367,000, and a little less than half of Myer’s haul came from self-funding. Holcomb ended March with a massive <a href="https://campaignfinance.in.gov/PublicSite/SearchPages/CommitteeDetail.aspx?OrgID=6872">$7.1 million</a> to <a href="https://campaignfinance.in.gov/PublicSite/SearchPages/CommitteeDetail.aspx?OrgID=7247">$22,000</a> cash-on-hand lead. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588787338000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588787338000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588787338000">Wednesday, May 6, 2020 · 5:48:58 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> Massachusetts: <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/6/4/1855760/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-primary-calendar">Tuesday was the deadline</a> for state and federal candidates in Massachusetts to file with their local election officials, but it will be a while before we know exactly who will be on the Sept. 1 primary ballot. This is because the Bay State has an unusual law that requires candidates to file again with the secretary of the commonwealth by June 2. However, it’s too late for anyone to launch a campaign now that the first deadline has passed, and it appears that several members of the state’s all-Democratic House delegation have avoided competitive primaries. The state requires candidates to turn in signatures to appear on the ballot, so it’s extremely unlikely that any major candidates could have launched a last-second campaign. Over in the 3rd District, freshman Rep. Lori Trahan faced the prospect of a primary rematch with Andover Selectman Dan Koh, whom she’d defeated by just 145 votes last cycle. However, while Koh <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/1/29/1914711/-Morning-Digest-Ardent-Trump-ally-will-reportedly-challenge-GOP-senator-in-Georgia-special-election#13">filed with the FEC in late January</a>, he <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00654509/1400537/">barely raised any money</a> over the following two months, and there’s no indication that he went forward with a campaign. In the 6th District, <a href="http://dailykos.com/stories/2018/12/11/1818517/-Massachusetts-state-senator-mulls-Democratic-primary-bid-against-anti-Pelosi-ringleader">several Democrats showed an interest</a> in taking on Rep. Seth Moulton in late 2018 when he tried to keep Nancy Pelosi out of the speaker's chair, but no strong candidates emerged even while Moulton was waging a doomed run for president. Two of the Democrats who did announce, attorney Angus McQuilken and women's health advocate Jamie Zahlaway Belsito, each had <a href="https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/MA/06/2020/">less than $32,000 on-hand</a> at the end of March, while Moulton had $411,000 in the bank. Finally, while Norwell Selectman Joe Rull <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/8/8/1872197/-Morning-Digest-Puerto-Rico-Supreme-Court-overturns-swearing-in-for-acting-governor-after-mere-days#5">expressed interest</a> in challenging 9th District Rep. Keating over the summer, Keating doesn’t appear to have picked up any noteworthy opponents. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588787436000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588787436000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588787436000">Wednesday, May 6, 2020 · 5:50:36 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> MA-04: Former state Comptroller Thomas Shack’s campaign told Politico that he <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/massachusetts-playbook/2020/05/06/new-mask-rules-begin-today-looser-rules-lead-to-crowded-ballot-pot-companies-seek-state-relief-489133">did not turn in enough signatures</a> to make the Sept. 1 Democratic primary ballot. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588792700000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588792700000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588792700000">Wednesday, May 6, 2020 · 7:18:20 PM +00:00 · Matt Booker </a> <div class="live-update-content"> NY-01: Stony Brook University professor <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fv1JokLpp4c&feature=youtu.be">Nancy Goroff is out with an ad</a> ahead of the June 23 Democratic primary that highlights her scientific background. The focus of this coronavirus-themed spot is on multiple frontline workers who praise Goroff, a scientist by trade, as someone who will “use science to guide us out of the crisis.” Goroff herself only appears at the very end of the commercial, from what is presumably her home. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588799739000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588799739000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588799739000">Wednesday, May 6, 2020 · 9:15:39 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> Governor-by-LD: Democrats have been making gains in Georgia over the last few years, and Stacey Abrams’ narrow 50-49 loss to Republican Brian Kemp in the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/16/politics/stacey-abrams-concession/index.html">tainted 2018 election for governor</a> suggests Team Blue has a path to win statewide. However, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/5/6/1943140/-Stacey-Abrams-nearly-won-Georgia-but-our-new-data-shows-the-power-of-the-GOP-s-gerrymanders" target="_blank" title="">our new data</a>, which was crunched for us by elections analyst Bill Coningsby, illustrates that the GOP’s gerrymanders will make it difficult for Democrats to take control of either chamber of the state legislature this year. Democrats have gained ground over the last few years, thanks to the damage Donald Trump has done to his party’s standing in the well-educated Atlanta suburbs, an area that was still reliably red when the current maps were drawn up in 2011. The GOP’s majority in the House <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2018">dropped from 114-64 to 105-75</a> after the 2018 elections, and its edge in the Senate also <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia_State_Senate_elections,_2018">nosed down from 37-19 to 35-21</a>. Still, while Georgia’s political landscape has changed in the nine years since the GOP initially redrew the maps after the 2010 census, the legislative gerrymanders remain tough to overcome. While Kemp only narrowly outpaced Abrams statewide, he still <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YZRfFiCDBEYB7M18fDGLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=1773530015">took 102 of the state's 180 House seats</a> versus just 78 for Abrams; in the Senate, he <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YZRfFiCDBEYB7M18fDGLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=1000911973" title="">won 33 of 56 Senate districts</a>, leaving Abrams with only 23. On a percentage basis, Kemp carried 57% of House seats and 59% of Senate seats despite winning just 50% statewide. We have a lot more about Democrats’ <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/5/6/1943140/-Stacey-Abrams-nearly-won-Georgia-but-our-new-data-shows-the-power-of-the-GOP-s-gerrymanders">tough path to a majority</a> in our post, as well as a look at a strange 2000 legislative runoff that illustrates just how far Democrats have come in the competitive Atlanta suburbs. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588801671000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588801671000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588801671000">Wednesday, May 6, 2020 · 9:47:51 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> CO-Sen: We have our first two polls of the year of this race, and they both find former Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper demolishing GOP Sen. Cory Gardner. Montana State University <a href="https://helpslab.montana.edu/documents/western_states_2020_coronavirus_survey/PoliticsPolicy_Colorado_Frequencies_01May2020_RELEASE.pdf">shows Hickenlooper ahead 48-31</a>, while Joe Biden defeats Donald Trump 53-35. The Democratic firms Keating Research, OnSight Public Affairs, and Melanson also are out with a joint survey showing Hickenlooper and Biden <a href="https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/coloradopolitics.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/e/f7/ef75af90-8fb1-11ea-9a5e-2f0c16b6bbf6/5eb2de0320dd6.pdf.pdf">up 54-36 and 55-36</a>, respectively; the firms paid for the poll themselves, though Melanson has <a href="https://www.denverpost.com/2020/05/06/colorado-poll-hickenlooper-gardner-senate-polis/">worked for Hickenlooper in the past</a>. While MSU occasionally releases polls of its home state (as does MSU Billings, which is another campus in the system), we believe this is its first survey of Colorado. Keating and Onsight, though, do have a history in Colorado. The two released a poll from the final days of October 2018 along with a third firm, Martin Campaigns, that gave Democrat Jared Polis <a href="https://elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2018/office/governor/state/CO">a 50-42 edge in the race for governor</a>: Polis ended up <a href="https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=8&year=2018&f=0&off=5&elect=0">winning by a similar 53-43 margin</a>. Still, while there’s no question that Gardner faces a tough contest, there’s reason to be skeptical he’s this far down. Hillary Clinton <a href="https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=8&year=2016&f=0&off=0&elect=0">carried Colorado 48-43</a>, and while Biden may very well improve on that margin, it seems unlikely he’d win the state by anywhere close to 20 points. (Or to put it another way, if Colorado actually does swing that far to the left, Trump is probably completely and utterly doomed nationwide.) Both parties are also acting like Gardner is very much still in the game. The senator’s allies at the <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/15/1937287/-Morning-Digest-Senate-GOP-s-campaign-arm-reserves-33-million-in-TV-ads-across-these-seven-states#1">NRSC</a> and the <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/23/1930462/-Mitch-McConnell-s-super-PAC-books-67-million-in-fall-TV-time-to-protect-GOP-s-Senate-majority">Senate Leadership Fund</a> have reserved a total of just under $12 million to aid him, while Senate Majority PAC has <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/23/1930462/-Mitch-McConnell-s-super-PAC-books-67-million-in-fall-TV-time-to-protect-GOP-s-Senate-majority">booked $5.5 million</a> to flip this seat. Hickenlooper needs to defeat former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff in the June 30 primary before he can focus on Gardner, but it looks like they will be the only two candidates for Democrats to choose from. On Tuesday evening, the Colorado Supreme Court <a href="https://coloradosun.com/2020/05/05/lorena-garcia-colorado-supreme-court-ruling-ballot-access/">overturned a lower-court ruling</a> that had placed nonprofit head Lorena Garcia on the ballot even though she didn’t have enough signatures. Garcia quickly announced that she’d be appealing the decision in federal court. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588802451000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588802451000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588802451000">Wednesday, May 6, 2020 · 10:00:51 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> MA-Sen: Democratic Rep. Joe Kennedy III is <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/05/06/metro/kennedy-launch-12m-tv-ad-blitz-senate-race-highlighting-coronavirus-work">spending $1.2 million on his opening TV ad campaign</a> for his September primary challenge to Sen. Ed Markey. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KwaxQNVlzys">The ad</a>, which was filmed at Kennedy’s home, features the congressman talking about his work on coronavirus relief. Kennedy continues, “When this crisis is passed, hear me loud and clear, quality healthcare will be a guaranteed right for all. In the U.S. Senate, I will lead that fight.” </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588802769000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588802769000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588802769000">Wednesday, May 6, 2020 · 10:06:09 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> CA-25: Republican Mike Garcia and the NRCC are <a href="https://host2.advertisinganalyticsllc.com/admo/#/view/1976917">out with a spot</a> ahead of next week’s special election that highlights Garcia’s career in the Air Force. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588802997000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588802997000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588802997000">Wednesday, May 6, 2020 · 10:09:57 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> GA-09: GOP state Rep. Kevin Tanner is <a href="https://twitter.com/KevinKTanner/status/1257761135866118146?s=20">out with a spot</a> ahead of the crowded June 9 primary staring his daughter, Kaitlyn Tanner. The younger Tanner says that, while her dad barely understands social media, he “really really cares about this family, his faith, and our community.” </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588803580000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588803580000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588803580000">Wednesday, May 6, 2020 · 10:19:40 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> NC-11: Businesswoman Lynda Bennett is out with a commercial for the July GOP primary runoff that <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T9JWxgZJweQ">stars Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan</a>, the former leader of the far-right House Freedom Caucus. Jordan reminisces about his time serving with former Rep. Mark Meadows, who resigned from Congress earlier this year to become Donald Trump’s newest chief of staff, and implores voters to elect Bennett to continue their fight. Jordan concludes, “Please join Mark Meadows and me in supporting Lynda Bennett for Congress.” </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588804131000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588804131000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588804131000"> Wednesday, May 6, 2020 · 10:28:51 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">IA-Sen: Self-funding businessman Eddie Mauro is out with what his campaign <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2020/05/06/robocalls-get-their-day-in-the-supreme-court-787387">says is a $500,000 TV and digital buy</a> ahead of the June 2 Democratic primary. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wNKuU_BJt7E&feature=youtu.be">The commercial</a> commends Mauro for taking a paycut during the last economic crisis to avoid laying off his employees, and it also praises him for making sure they received sick leave. The narrator then says of businesswoman Theresa Greenfield, who had the backing of national Democrats, “She refused to take responsibility when her company defaulted on loans, laid off employees and closed shop in Iowa.” Greenfield’s campaign <a href="https://greenfieldforiowa.com/2020/05/06/greenfield-campaign-responds-to-false-political-attacks/">quickly responded</a>, “Like many workers and businesses at the time, Theresa has been very open about how one company she worked for fell victim to the great recession caused by Wall Street’s corporate greed.” </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588805844000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588805844000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588805844000"> Wednesday, May 6, 2020 · 10:57:24 PM +00:00 · David Nir </a> <div class="live-update-content">Election Changes Florida: The Miami-Dade County Board of Commissioners <a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article242520586.html">has unanimously approved a plan</a> to send an absentee ballot application to every household where a voter hasn't already requested one ahead of Florida's Aug. 18 primary, some 520,000 in total. The mailing will not go out to every individual voter, but the applications will also include instructions for applying online. Voters can also select a box to request ballots for every election through the next two general elections. With 2.7 million people, Miami-Dade is the largest county in the state. Two other nearby counties in South Florida, Broward and Palm Beach (the second- and third-largest), <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/23/1939526/-Morning-Digest-Supreme-Court-elections-in-these-four-states-are-key-for-stopping-GOP-gerrymandering#2">are also considering similar plans</a>. New York: A federal judge <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/judge-orders-new-yorks-presidential-primary-to-proceed-as-planned-11588729547">has reinstated New York's June 23 presidential primary</a>, which is the same day as the state's primaries for other races, following a lawsuit by former presidential candidate Andrew Yang. U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1svi3ix6mDFnwXV1gBbqY_2Mu8H_aZXWe/view">concluded that</a>, while the nomination is no longer being contested, withdrawn candidates would lose the opportunity to send delegates to the Democratic National Convention who would support their views and wield influence over the party's platform. The New York State Board of Elections says it will appeal the ruling. Texas: Democrats <a href="https://www.texasdemocrats.org/media/breaking-texas-democratic-party-files-motion-for-emergency-relief-to-force-greg-abbott-and-ken-paxton-to-follow-the-law/">have asked a state appeals court</a> to clarify that an injunction issued last month by a trial court allowing all Texas voters to request an absentee ballot remains in force, despite a claim by Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton that it does not. Paxton had said <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/5/5/1942591/-Morning-Digest-Republican-accused-of-pandemic-profiteering-defends-herself-with-her-private-jet#6">in a recent letter</a> that the injunction was automatically stayed as a result of his appeal of the lower court's decision, <a href="https://www.texasdemocrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/FINAL-Emergency-Enforcement-Motion.pdf#page=3">but Democrats argue</a> that it's still in effect because Paxton failed to specifically request a stay. In the event Paxton does belatedly seek a stay, Democrats are asking the appeals court to enforce the injunction. Vermont: Republican Gov. Phil Scott <a href="https://vtdigger.org/2020/05/05/scott-has-concerns-with-expanding-mail-in-voting-for-general-election/">says he has "concerns"</a> about Democratic Secretary of State Jim Condos' <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/14/1936964/-Morning-Digest-Progressives-flip-Wisconsin-Supreme-Court-seat-held-by-Scott-Walker-appointee#6">plans to send mail-in ballots</a> both for Vermont's Aug. 11 primary and the November general election, a proposal that would require gubernatorial sign off. Scott specifically says he's concerned about the state's ability to print general election ballots quickly enough after the primaries and says he hopes they "can be addressed." Condos, however, says he's already sent a memo to Scott about his concerns, though a spokesperson for the governor "declined to say whether the memo had persuaded" him, according to VTDigger. </div> </div> rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) DailyKosElections DKELiveDigests _1941964 Wed, 06 May 2020 13:00:13 +0000 Morning Digest: GOP primary for swingy New Mexico House seat reaches new low in nastiness https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/5/6/1942844/-Morning-Digest-GOP-primary-for-swingy-New-Mexico-House-seat-reaches-new-low-in-nastiness The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar. <h4>Leading Off</h4> <a href="#1" name="1">●</a> NM-02: The June 2 GOP contest to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Xochitl Torres Small in New Mexico's 2nd District turned negative a long time ago, and it may now be the ugliest primary anywhere in the country. The Associated Press' Russell Contreras <a href="https://www.ourmidland.com/news/article/GOP-US-House-primary-in-New-Mexico-gets-personal-15246808.php">reported Tuesday</a> that 2018 nominee Yvette Herrell had texted with a conservative cartoonist named Roger Rael about a meme Rael was creating that suggested that Herrell's main rival, businesswoman Claire Chase, had been unfaithful to her first husband. Herrell showed a close interest in Rael's illustration, going so far as to inform him about multiple spelling errors: "It should say gold digging, not good digging," she wrote, adding, "Let me send them in the morning. There are a couple of more." rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) baltimoremdmayor BrandonScott CalCunningham ChrisMathys Civiqs ClaireChase CO-Sen DailyKosElections DanForest DKEMorningDigest Elections EugeneDePasquale Florida GA-Sen-A Garin-Hart-YangResearchGroup HillaryClinton IA-04 JackYoung JohnLewis JonOssoff LorenaGarcia MaryMiller ME-Sen MichelleFerrigno MikeCooney MJHegar MT-Gov NC-Gov NC-Sen Nevada NM-02 NorthCarolina Oklahoma PA-10 RandyFeenstra RoyCooper ScottPerry SenateMajorityPAC SheilaDixon SusanCollins T.J.Smith TheCitizensforEthicalProgressiveLeadershipPAC thiruvignarajah ThomTillis TomBrier TX-Sen U.S.ChamberofCommerce VeronicaEscobar WhitneyWilliams XochitlTorresSmall YvetteHerrell _1942844 Wed, 06 May 2020 12:00:06 +0000 Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 5/5 https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/5/5/1941963/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-5-5 Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. Please note: The Live Digest is a 2016 and 2020 Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy. Sign up <a href="http://dailykos.com/electionsdigest" target="_blank">here</a> to receive the Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest in your inbox each weekday. <div><a name="update-1588352379000"></a></div> <div><a name="update-1588693852000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588693852000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588693852000">Tuesday, May 5, 2020 · 3:50:52 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> IA-04: This week, the deep-pocketed U.S. Chamber of Commerce <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2020/05/05/steve-king-randy-feenstra-republican-primary-us-chamber-of-commerce-endorsement/3078584001/">endorsed state Sen. Randy Feenstra</a> over white supremacist Rep. Steve King in the June 2 GOP primary. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588695009000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588695009000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588695009000">Tuesday, May 5, 2020 · 4:10:09 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> CO-Sen: Businesswoman Michelle Ferrigno Warren’s campaign came to an end on Monday when the Colorado Supreme Court <a href="https://www.coloradopolitics.com/news/colorado-supreme-court-kicks-democrat-michelle-warren-off-us-senate-primary-ballot/article_64f9ffc4-8e53-11ea-b68c-2bfb0c9b85af.html">unanimously reversed a lower-court ruling</a> that had placed her on the June 23 Democratic primary ballot. Denver District Court Judge Christopher Baumann <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/5/4/1942297/-Morning-Digest-New-GOP-poll-finds-both-of-Georgia-s-Republican-senators-in-danger#3">had ordered Warren onto the ballot</a> last month even though she didn’t have enough signatures after deciding that, in light of disruptions caused by social distancing, she had collected enough to justify her place in the primary. However, the state’s highest court ultimately ruled that only the legislature has the authority to change how many petitions are needed. This could spell very bad news for another candidate, nonprofit head Lorena Garcia. Baumann had also ordered Garcia onto the primary ballot for the same reason he had applied to Warren, but Secretary of State Jena Griswold’s office announced Monday evening that she was <a href="https://coloradosun.com/2020/05/04/michelle-ferrigno-warren-ballot-access-supreme-court-ruling/" title="">appealing his decision to the state Supreme Court</a>. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588696598000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588696598000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588696598000"> Tuesday, May 5, 2020 · 4:36:38 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">MT-Gov: Businesswoman Whitney Williams <a href="https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/1257699115145854976">picked up an endorsement on Tuesday</a> from Hillary Clinton for the June 2 Democratic primary. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588703043000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588703043000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588703043000"> Tuesday, May 5, 2020 · 6:24:03 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">MT-Gov: Williams is also <a href="https://twitter.com/WhitneyforMT/status/1257661274462322689">out with a commercial</a> where she declares that, while trailblazing women built Montana, Rep. Greg Gianforte and Donald Trump are threatening women now. Williams declares that Trump and the GOP primary frontrunner “want to take away our right to choose. Even restrict birth control. I won’t let that happen.” Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney, who is Williams’ primary opponent, is <a href="https://twitter.com/CooneyforMT/status/1257694143108661249">also out with a TV spot</a>. The narrators say that Cooney worked with outgoing Gov. Steve Bullock to expand healthcare access, protect rural hospitals, and create the jobs “that will steer our economy through this crisis.” The ad ends by reminding voters that Bullock and Sen. Jon Tester are backing Cooney. While the primary is almost a month away, voters will have the chance to cast their ballots very soon. Republican Secretary of State Corey Stapleton announced in March that all 56 Montana counties <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/7/1934953/-Conservative-courts-order-Wisconsin-election-to-proceed-risks-to-health-and-democracy-be-damned#3">plan to conduct the state's primary by mail</a>, and that ballots will be <a href="https://www.ktvh.com/news/montana-news/looks-like-all-mt-counties-will-do-all-mail-ballots-for-june-2-primary">mailed out to registered voters on May 8</a>. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588703139000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588703139000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588703139000"> Tuesday, May 5, 2020 · 6:25:39 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">TX-Sen: Air Force veteran MJ Hegar <a href="https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1257720654742401026">picked up an endorsement this week</a> from Rep. Veronica Escobar ahead of the July Democratic primary runoff. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588704589000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588704589000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588704589000"> Tuesday, May 5, 2020 · 6:49:49 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">NC-Sen, NC-Gov: A new poll conducted by Democratic pollster Civiqs on behalf of Daily Kos <a href="https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_NC_banner_book_2020_05_kld8fh.pdf">shows Democrats well ahead</a> in North Carolina’s Senate and gubernatorial contests. (Civiqs and Daily Kos are owned by the same parent company.) Cal Cunningham leads GOP Sen. Thom Tillis 50-41, while Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper posts a similar 53-44 edge against Republican Dan Forest; this sample also finds Joe Biden ahead 49-46. This is the <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/30/1941415/-Morning-Digest-Justin-Amash-s-presidential-bid-opens-up-potentially-competitive-Michigan-House-seat#9">largest lead we’ve seen for Cunningham</a> since he won the primary in early March, though we still don’t have too many other polls to work with. The conservative Civitas Institute released numbers in mid-April from the GOP firm Harper Polling that showed Tillis ahead 38-34, while the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling found Cunningham ahead 47-40 around that same time. A SurveyUSA poll released last week also had Cunningham ahead just 41-39. Civiqs does find Cooper taking <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/north-carolina/">about the same percentage of the vote</a> as other firms do, but it finds Forest in better shape. While Cooper has consistently posted very strong approval ratings since the coronavirus pandemic began, it seems unlikely that Forest will end up in the mid-30s when all is said and done in this polarized state. Indeed, the last time a major party gubernatorial nominee failed to take at least 42% of the vote <a href="https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=37&year=1980&f=0&off=5&elect=0">was 1980</a>. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588705828000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588705828000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588705828000"> Tuesday, May 5, 2020 · 7:10:28 PM +00:00 · Matt Booker </a> <div class="live-update-content">GA-Sen-A: 2017 House nominee Jon Ossoff is out with a <a href="https://twitter.com/ossoff/status/1257666406356865024">new statewide ad</a> ahead of the June 9 Democratic primary that prominently features Rep. John Lewis and touts his endorsement. Lewis speaks positively of Ossoff, imploring voters to support him and “send Donald Trump a message he will never forget”, while clips of the pair appearing together are shown. Lewis and Ossoff have a relationship that dates back several years. Ossoff <a href="https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/breaking-ossoff-run-for-senate-georgia/S7S3FWCEDm7UY6J4gN6fSL/">previously interned</a> for the civil rights icon and Atlanta-area congressman, while Lewis was one of <a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article134490239.html">Ossoff’s early supporters</a> in his 2017 special election bid for the 6th Congressional District. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588710044000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588710044000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588710044000"> Tuesday, May 5, 2020 · 8:20:44 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">PA-10: Attorney Tom Brier is <a href="https://twitter.com/AlexClearfield/status/1257743156625448966">up with his first TV spot</a> ahead of the June 2 Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. Scott Perry. The <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=kLGiLCRHTUM&feature=emb_title">commercial shows</a> several images of Brier’s volunteers as the candidate explains his campaign “has always been about bringing progressive Democrats together. Lots of Democrats who are now volunteering from home.” Brier’s supporters then say what they believe in, including taking money out of politics, dealing with the opioid crisis, and healthcare for all. Brier ends by telling the viewer, “Apply for your mail-in ballot today.” Brier faces state Auditor Eugene DePasquale, who <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/1/28/1914630/-House-Democrats-launch-2020-Red-to-Blue-program-highlighting-top-candidates">has the support of the DCCC</a>, in next month’s primary, and DePasquale ended March with a large <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">$657,000 to $145,000 cash-on-hand lead</a>. Perry, who narrowly won re-election last cycle, had $816,000 available to defend himself in a seat in the Harrisburg and York area that <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">backed Trump 52-43</a>. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588711174000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588711174000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588711174000"> Tuesday, May 5, 2020 · 8:39:34 PM +00:00 · Matt Booker </a> <div class="live-update-content">ME-Sen: The Democratic group Senate Majority PAC is out with a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqMwQxfSXUs&feature=youtu.be">health care-themed spot</a>, supported with a <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2020/05/05/does-this-mysterious-super-pac-actually-exist-787352">six-figure buy</a>, attacking Republican Sen. Susan Collins. The ad ties Collins to the pharmaceutical industry and also states that she “voted against Mainers with pre-existing conditions and for corporate special interests.” The commercial, which also shows images of Collins seated alongside Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, closes by saying, “Money changes everything, even Susan Collins.” </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588711295000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588711295000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588711295000"> Tuesday, May 5, 2020 · 8:41:35 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">NM-02: The June 2 GOP contest to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Xochitl Torres Small in New Mexico’s 2nd District turned negative a long time ago, and it may now be the ugliest primary anywhere in the country. The Associated Press' Russell Contreras <a href="https://www.ourmidland.com/news/article/GOP-US-House-primary-in-New-Mexico-gets-personal-15246808.php">reported Tuesday</a> that 2018 nominee Yvette Herrell had texted with a conservative cartoonist named Roger Rael about a meme Rael was creating that suggested that Herrell's main rival, businesswoman Claire Chase, had been unfaithful to her first husband. Herrell showed a close interest in Rael's illustration, going so far as to inform him about multiple spelling errors: “It should say gold digging, not good digging,” she wrote, adding, “Let me send them in the morning. There are a couple of more.” Herrell’s campaign did acknowledge that she had communicated with Rael, who it just so happens is currently under indictment for what Contreras describes as “disorderly conduct and criminal damage to property charges in connection with an alleged attack on a Republican state House candidate.” However, Herrell’s spokesperson claimed that Rael had incessantly messaged Herrell, saying that her texts only came in response to his. (What better way to fend off unwelcome texting than to turn into the grammar police?) Herrell also put out a statement saying, “I have never attempted to use personal rumors about Claire in this race, and will never do so. Neither has my campaign.” Chase, unsurprisingly, was not appeased, and she called for Herrell to drop out of the primary. Chase’s former husband, Ben Gray, issued his own statement slamming Herrell: “I can’t believe Yvette Herrell would try to use me in this false, disgusting attack,” he wrote. Gray, who said he was still friends with Chase and is a member of a group called Veterans for Claire, added, “What kind of person would smear a Veteran to win a political campaign?” But even before these latest developments, this was a messy campaign. Both candidates launched ads last month that accused the other of <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/28/1940881/-Morning-Digest-After-abrupt-postponement-of-March-s-election-Ohio-s-primary-is-finally-here#22">trying to undermine Donald Trump in 2016</a>; Herrell’s commercial even employed a narrator who used what Nathan Gonzalez <a href="https://www.rollcall.com/2020/04/28/the-campaign-attack-ad-no-man-could-get-away-with/">described as a “ditzy tone”</a> to impersonate Chase. Gonzalez, who titled his article, “The campaign attack ad no man could get away with,” also characterized the spot as “one of the most sexist campaign ads in recent memory.” Whoever makes it out of next month’s primary will emerge bruised, but the winner will still have a chance to beat Torres Small simply because of the district's conservative demographics: This southern New Mexico seat <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections?detail=hide">supported Donald Trump 50-40, a</a>nd Daily Kos Elections <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/1kHpGnR2VSAie2HYcF4R0-hv2Cc0EpdQ8Kkck51Hh2lk/edit#gid=178550510">rates the general election a Tossup</a>. But Torres Small, who <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=833259">defeated Herrell 51-49 last cycle</a>, had <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">nearly $3 million in the bank</a> to defend herself at the end of March, while her prospective opponents didn’t have anywhere close to that much. Herrell enjoyed a $378,000 to $264,000 cash-on-hand lead over Chase while a third candidate, self-funder Chris Mathys, had $200,000 to spend. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588716306000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588716306000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588716306000"> Tuesday, May 5, 2020 · 10:05:06 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">Baltimore, MD Mayor: On behalf of The Citizens for Ethical Progressive Leadership PAC, a <a href="https://www.baltimoresun.com/politics/bs-md-pol-mary-miller-super-pac-complaint-20200504-sweofgqamnbiplm47jdf66ocaa-story.html">group supporting</a> former U.S. Treasury official Mary Miller, the Democratic firm Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group is out with a mid-April poll showing a tight June 2 Democratic primary. The first survey we’ve seen since mid-March finds that Miller, former Mayor Sheila Dixon, and City Council President Brandon Scott are <a href="https://drive.google.com/open?id=1haV5J3Df8ag6fyQ8byE2gKG3BdkEOlp9">in a three-way tie</a> with 16% each, while incumbent Jack Young is at 13%. Two other contenders, former Baltimore Police Department spokesman T.J. Smith and former state prosecutor Thiru, are at 11% and 10%, respectively, while 18% are undecided. It only takes a simple plurality to win, and the Democratic nominee should have no trouble in November in this very blue city. The primary, which was delayed from April 28 to early June because of the coronavirus pandemic, has also turned into a very expensive contest. The Baltimore Sun reports that Miller has <a href="https://www.baltimoresun.com/politics/bs-md-pol-campaign-finance-update-20200429-xohdkz5q6jfeveiu3nyrfz52y4-story.html">raised $800,000</a> and self-funded an additional $1.5 million this year, which has allowed her to outspend her many opponents; Miller had only $150,000 left in late April, but she may have the resources to self-fund more. Miller is also the <a href="https://www.marylandmatters.org/2020/01/06/former-treasury-official-set-to-run-for-mayor-of-baltimore/">only one of the many major candidates</a> who is white in a city that’s <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/baltimorecitymarylandcounty/AGE295218">63% African American</a> and 32% white: The other notable candidates are Black except for Vignarajah, who is the <a href="https://www.wypr.org/post/thiru-vignarajah-democrat-baltimore-states-attorney">son of Sri Lankan immigrants</a>. Baltimore’s last white mayor was Martin O’Malley, who was elected in 1999 and resigned in early 2007 to become governor of Maryland. Vignarajah has also been a strong fundraiser, and he <a href="https://www.baltimoresun.com/politics/bs-md-pol-campaign-finance-update-20200429-xohdkz5q6jfeveiu3nyrfz52y4-story.html">had the largest war chest</a> in the field last month with $700,000 in the bank. Scott, who has the backing of several unions, led Dixon in cash-on-hand $415,000 to $300,000, while Young had $202,000 to spend; Young’s campaign said that he’s all but stopped fundraising as he deals with the coronavirus. Smith, meanwhile, was far behind with just $22,000 available. It would ordinarily be quite surprising to see a crowded race where the incumbent trailing in both the polls and the money contest, but Young has only been in office for about a year. He was elevated from City Council president to mayor when incumbent Catherine Pugh <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/5/3/1854979/-Morning-Digest-Can-Democrats-retake-Iowa-s-House-Our-data-shows-it-ll-be-tough-but-there-is-a-way#9">resigned in disgrace</a> (she later was <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/2/1923248/-Morning-Digest-Los-Angeles-to-vote-in-key-election-for-district-attorney-in-the-largest-U-S-county#27">sentenced to three years in prison</a> after pleading guilty to conspiracy and tax evasion charges <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/4/5/1848108/-Baltimore-mayor-takes-leave-of-absence-as-scandal-over-her-self-published-children-s-book-deepens">related to her self-published children's books</a>), and a number of candidates quickly made it clear that they’d challenge Young. Young’s <a href="https://www.baltimoresun.com/politics/elections/bs-md-pol-mayoral-race-coronavirus-20200430-xrmxozaewbavlgehqfakyghgcu-story.html">critics have argued</a> that the veteran local politician isn’t the right person to help Baltimore deal with its long-term problems, and they’ve also taken him to task for his <a href="https://www.baltimoremagazine.com/section/community/jack-young-may-be-baltimores-most-unlikely-modern-mayor">many gaffes</a>. To take one example, Young <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/11/21/1900851/-Morning-Digest-Pompeo-gets-blasted-in-impeachment-hearing-but-reportedly-still-weighing-Senate-bid#12">said of the city’s high homicide rate</a> last year, “I’m not committing the murders, and that’s what people need to understand, and, "How can you fault leadership? This has been five years of 300-plus murders. I don't see it as a lack of leadership." Several polls taken during the winter <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/30/1932459/-Morning-Digest-Trump-declares-war-on-GOP-congressman-who-held-up-coronavirus-bill#17">showed Young badly trailing</a>, and Mason-Dixon gave him a <a href="https://foxbaltimore.com/news/vote-2020/poll-mason-dixon-poll-shows-smith-leading-race-followed-by-dixon-scott-comes-in-third">28-39 favorable rating</a> in mid-March. However, that was during the early days of the coronavirus crisis in the United States, and we don’t have enough data to indicate if Young's handling of the situation at home has given him a better shot to win a full term this year. Miller began airing commercials months ago, and she’s <a href="https://www.baltimoresun.com/opinion/columnists/zurawik/bs-ed-zontv-baltimore-media-mayor-20200428-k2xunsai2vbwtkzcjxbav5rjdi-story.html">largely had the airwaves to herself</a>. Miller also has a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjYzNM5IntY&feature=emb_title">new commercial</a> where she tells viewers that Barack Obama brought her on at the Treasury Department during the Great Recession, and argues she has the experience to help Baltimore “come back stronger” from the current pandemic. Dixon, meanwhile, went up with her <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=euxgGLa8BTM&feature=emb_title">first spot last week</a>, which featured several people praising her accomplishments as mayor. Dixon <a href="https://www.baltimoresun.com/politics/bs-md-pol-sheila-campaign-kickoff-20191214-flexlaxmh5ddllwz4wemfu2pjy-story.html">resigned that post</a> in 2010 after she was convicted of stealing gift cards that were supposed to help needy families, but she’s maintained a base of support since then. Dixon ran for mayor again in 2016 and narrowly lost the primary<a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=804136"> to then-state Sen. Pugh 37-35</a>. Dixon<a href="https://www.wbaltv.com/article/sheila-dixon-seeks-to-file-as-write-in-mayoral-candidate/7030181"> launched a write-in campaign</a> just a month ahead of the competitive general election and took second place with 52,000 votes, which was<a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=806848"> good for a 58-22 loss</a>. Vignarajah also recently went up with a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oK2I_FyHrRY&feature=emb_title" target="_blank">new </a><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oK2I_FyHrRY&feature=emb_title" target="_blank">ad</a> that features several locals praising him as a responsive leader. Vignarajah’s supporters say he got them jobs, stopped their water from being shut off, halted illegal trash dumping. One woman also praises Vignarajah for convicting the men who murdered her young son. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588718181000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588718181000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588718181000"> Tuesday, May 5, 2020 · 10:36:21 PM +00:00 · David Nir </a> <div class="live-update-content">Election Changes • Florida: The Democratic super PAC Priorities USA, along with two other organizations and several voters, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/04/priorities-usa-florida-voting-coronavirus-234384">has filed a lawsuit</a> asking a federal court to relax a number of Florida laws related to absentee voting for the state's Aug. 18 primaries and the November general election. <a href="https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/41/2020/05/01-Complaint-05-04-20.pdf#page=58">In particular,</a> the plaintiffs want absentee ballots to count so long as they are postmarked by Election Day and received within 10 days; currently, ballots must be received by 7 PM local time on Election Day. They're also asking that the state pay for postage return envelopes for mail-in ballots, and that Florida's ban on paid organizers assisting with ballot collection be lifted. • Nevada: Nevada Democrats and their national counterparts <a href="https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/clark-county-election-officials-to-expand-in-person-voting-for-primary-election-mail-ballots-to-inactive-voters">have withdrawn their legal challenge</a> seeking a number of changes to the state's June 2 primary after officials in Clark County acceded to two of their biggest demands. <a href="https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/41/2020/05/2020.05.05_Corona-v-SOS_Notice-of-Withdrawal-of-Motion-for-PI_FINAL.pdf">According to a court filing</a>, plaintiffs say that Clark County Registrar of Voters Joe Gloria has agreed to mail ballots to all voters, not just those listed as "active," and will add two in-person voting sites, for a total of three. Officials in other parts of the state have made more limited concessions, per the filing, but Clark County, where Las Vegas is located, is home <a href="https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=8630">to 71% of Nevada voters</a> and <a href="https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=8622">81% of all "inactive" voters</a> in the state. Democrats also say they plan to continue pressing their claims for the general election. • North Carolina: Several North Carolina voters, backed by voting rights organizations, <a href="https://redistrictingfoundation.org/stringer-v-nc-lawsuit-in-nc">have brought a lawsuit</a> asking a state court to relax a number of laws related to absentee voting for the November general election. <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e909f4422f7a40a188de597/t/5eb03c4bd76904418cc97cd7/1588608076074/Stringer%2C+et+al.+v.+North+Carolina+-+AS+FILED+Complaint.pdf#page=29">In particular</a>, the plaintiffs want absentee ballots to count so long as they are postmarked by Election Day and received within nine days, which is the same deadline for military voters; currently, ballots must be postmarked by Election Day and received within just three days. They're also asking for an expanded definition of the term "postmark" to include modern imprints like barcodes, and in the event a postmark does not include a date, they want officials "to presume that the ballot was mailed on or before Election Day unless the preponderance of the evidence demonstrates it was mailed after Election Day." In addition, plaintiffs want the state to pay for postage for both absentee ballot applications and ballots, and they want the court to waive the requirement that absentee voters have their ballots either notarized or signed by two witnesses. Finally, plaintiffs are requesting that voters be given the opportunity to correct any issues if their signatures allegedly do not match those on file. • Oklahoma: The Oklahoma Supreme Court <a href="https://www.courthousenews.com/oklahoma-high-court-strikes-down-notary-mandate-for-absentee-ballots/">has struck down a requirement</a> that absentee ballots be notarized and issued an order prohibiting officials from sending out ballots or other voting materials suggesting that notarization is still mandatory. Last month, the League of Women Voters <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/24/1940130/-Voting-Rights-Roundup-Delay-in-2020-census-data-release-could-heavily-disrupt-redistricting-process#25">challenged the notary requirement</a>, calling it antithetical to stemming the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. The court's decision, however, was not grounded in public health but rather a state law that allows a signed statement made under penalty of perjury to suffice in lieu of a notarization in most cases where an affidavit is called for. </div> </div> rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) DailyKosElections DKELiveDigests _1941963 Tue, 05 May 2020 13:00:04 +0000 Morning Digest: Republican accused of pandemic profiteering defends herself with ... her private jet https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/5/5/1942591/-Morning-Digest-Republican-accused-of-pandemic-profiteering-defends-herself-with-her-private-jet The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar. <h4>Leading Off</h4> <a href="#1" name="1">●</a> GA-Sen-B: Wealthy Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler <a href="https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/georgia-senate-loeffler-put-behind-wave-new-ads/Jcf2ijVn3MtyXspdJsjMGI/">is launching a $4 million TV ad buy</a> with three different spots (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzmrZNmoLw4&feature=emb_title">here</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PElFyhNsQPE&feature=emb_title">here</a>, and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1SDGjd9JqMo&feature=emb_title">here</a>) defending herself amid her <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/6/1934586/-Morning-Digest-California-s-property-tax-revolt-may-finally-get-rolled-back-with-new-ballot-measure#10">scandal over her pandemic-related stock transactions</a>. The spots may be the first-ever ads to find a politician defending themselves amid a scandal by touting the use of their own private jet instead of being attacked over owning one; Loeffler notes she used it to fly home stranded cruise passengers. Loeffler's ads denounce the accusations against her as "liberal lies" and claim it's part of a conspiracy to stop a strong conservative from serving in the Senate. Loeffler's ads contend that she donated away her Senate salary and gave a couple million to charitable coronavirus relief efforts. However, the ads don't note how her net worth is <a href="https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/kelly-loeffler-outlines-millions-assets-financial-disclosures/bU0AYQgXQXD1y7E8VtECXI/">at least several hundred millions of dollars</a>, and <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/6/1934586/-Morning-Digest-California-s-property-tax-revolt-may-finally-get-rolled-back-with-new-ballot-measure#10">tens of millions of dollars worth of her stocks were sold</a> earlier this year after she had received briefings on the coronavirus threat but before the markets dropped. rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) Alabama AngieCraig BenSalango CA-11 California ClubForGrowth Connecticut DailyKosElections DianaHarshbarger DKEMorningDigest DougCollins EddieMauro Elections GA-Sen-B IA-02 IA-Sen JanGarbett JeffBurningham JimJustice JohnCornyn JoniErnst KellyLoeffler KevinMcCarthy KS-Sen MariannetteMiller-Meeks MarkDeSaulnier MattRosendale ME-Sen MichaelFranken MikeParson MJHegar MN-02 MO-Gov MT-AL NicoleGalloway PeteSessions PublicPolicyPolling RemingtonResearch reneeunterman RichMcCormick RogerMarshall RoyceWest SixteenThirtyFund SouthCarolina SusanCollins taxmarch Tennessee Texas TheresaGreenfield TN-01 TX-17 TX-Sen TylerKistner U.S.ChamberofCommerce UniversityofTexasAtTyler UT-Gov VA-05 Virginia Wisconsin WoodyThrasher WV-Gov _1942591 Tue, 05 May 2020 12:00:07 +0000 Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 5/4 https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/5/4/1941962/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-5-4 Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. Please note: The Live Digest is a 2016 and 2020 Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy. Sign up <a href="http://dailykos.com/electionsdigest" target="_blank">here</a> to receive the Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest in your inbox each weekday. <div><a name="update-1588352379000"></a></div> <div> <a name="update-1588607752000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588607752000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588607752000"> Monday, May 4, 2020 · 3:55:52 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">UT-Gov: The June 30 GOP primary field was finally solidified over the weekend after two candidates, businessman Jeff Burningham and businesswoman Jan Garbett, <a href="https://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/23732-garbett-drops-her-lawsuit-but-a-gop-legislative-candidate-is-also-suing-for-a-spot-in-the-primary">discontinued their lawsuits</a> to try and get on the ballot. Burningham had <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/5/1/1941692/-Morning-Digest-Daily-Kos-Elections-unveils-our-initial-2020-race-ratings-for-the-U-S-House#7">filed a lawsuit in federal court</a> asking Judge Richard Shelby to dramatically lower the number of signatures he needed to make the ballot, but Shelby rejected it on Friday. Burningham <a href="https://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/23731-federal-judge-denies-jeff-burningham-s-lawsuit-seeking-a-spot-in-the-june-primary">announced soon afterward that he would not appeal</a> the decision. Shelby had ruled in Garbett’s favor last week when he lowered the number of signatures she needed from 28,000 to just over 19,000, a decision that applied only to her. The state, though, soon said she didn’t have nearly enough, and Shelby <a href="https://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/23732-garbett-drops-her-lawsuit-but-a-gop-legislative-candidate-is-also-suing-for-a-spot-in-the-primary">denied Garbett’s request</a> to once again reduce the number of petitions required. Garbett appealed his decision on Friday, but she ended her lawsuit the following day. Altogether, state election officials announced that just over 8,700 of the 21,000 petitions Garbett turned in were valid. Four candidates will be on the ballot to succeed retiring Gov. Gary Herbert, and early polls show former Ambassador to Russia Jon Huntsman, who preceded Herbert as governor, and Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox as the frontrunners. Also in the mix are former state party chair Thomas Wright and former state House Speaker Greg Hughes. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588609171000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588609171000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588609171000"> Monday, May 4, 2020 · 4:19:31 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">IA-Sen: The Democratic firm Public Policy Polling is out with the first general election survey we’ve seen all year of the Iowa Senate race, and it shows GOP Sen. Joni Ernst leading businessman Theresa Greenfield <a href="https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/IowaResultsMay2020.pdf">just 43-42</a> in a hypothetical contest; this same sample finds Donald Trump leading 48-46 in a state he carried 51-42 four years ago. The release did not test any of the other candidates who are competing with Greenfield, who has the backing of national Democrats, in the June 2 primary. We haven’t seen any polls here since December when a PPP survey for Greenfield’s allies at End Citizens United that <a href="https://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/IowaResults.pdf">gave Ernst a 47-41 edge</a>. However, while you should never let one poll determine your view of a race (even when there is literally one poll to go off of), we have seen other indications that Ernst, who won by a <a href="https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=19&year=2014&f=0&off=3&elect=0&class=2">surprisingly large 52-44 margin</a> during the 2014 GOP wave, is more vulnerable than she looked at the start of the cycle. Perhaps most importantly, all four major Senate outside groups—the NRSC and Senate Leadership Fund on the Republican side and the DSCC and Senate Majority PAC in the Democratic one—have booked millions in TV ad time here. The NRSC has <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/15/1937287/-Morning-Digest-Senate-GOP-s-campaign-arm-reserves-33-million-in-TV-ads-across-these-seven-states#1">reserved $2.6 million</a> for a buy starting in June, while SLF has <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/23/1930462/-Mitch-McConnell-s-super-PAC-books-67-million-in-fall-TV-time-to-protect-GOP-s-Senate-majority">booked $12.6 million</a> in ads that will start after Labor Day. The DSCC, meanwhile, has <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/30/1941415/-Morning-Digest-Justin-Amash-s-presidential-bid-opens-up-potentially-competitive-Michigan-House-seat#10">reserved $7.3 million</a> in TV and digital ads for the fall, while its allies at SMP has <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/30/1932722/-New-TV-reservations-foreshadow-an-expensive-fight-for-Iowa-s-Republican-senator">booked a hefty $13.1 million</a> in TV spots for around that same period. Greenfield has also proven to be a good fundraiser. Ernst outraised her by a <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938848/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-Senate-fundraising-reports-roundup">modest $2.7 million to $2.2 million</a> during the first quarter of 2020, though the incumbent ended March with a clear $6.5 million to $3.8 million cash-on-hand lead. Greenfield, as we noted above, does face primary opposition next month, but none of her opponents have her resources and outside support. 2018 House candidate Eddie Mauro, who has almost been entirely self-funding his new campaign, had $1 million on-hand, while retired Navy Vice Adm. Michael Franken had only $225,000 to spend. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588615750000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588615750000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588615750000"> Monday, May 4, 2020 · 6:09:10 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf </a> <div class="live-update-content">GA-Sen-B: Wealthy Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler <a href="https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/georgia-senate-loeffler-put-behind-wave-new-ads/Jcf2ijVn3MtyXspdJsjMGI/" title="">is launching a $4 million TV ad buy</a> with three different spots (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzmrZNmoLw4&feature=emb_title">here</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PElFyhNsQPE&feature=emb_title">here</a>, and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1SDGjd9JqMo&feature=emb_title">here</a>) defending herself amid her <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/6/1934586/-Morning-Digest-California-s-property-tax-revolt-may-finally-get-rolled-back-with-new-ballot-measure#10" title="">scandal over her pandemic-related stock transactions</a>. The spots may be the first-ever ad to find a politician defending themselves amid a scandal by touting the use of their own private jet instead of being attacked over owning one, which Loeffler notes she used to fly home stranded cruise passengers. Loeffler's ads denounce the accusations against her as "liberal lies" and claim it's part of a conspiracy to stop a strong conservative from serving in the Senate. Loeffler's ads contend that she donated away her Senate salary and gave a couple million to charitable coronavirus relief efforts. However, the ads don't note how her net worth is <a href="https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/kelly-loeffler-outlines-millions-assets-financial-disclosures/bU0AYQgXQXD1y7E8VtECXI/">at least several hundred millions of dollars</a>, and <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/6/1934586/-Morning-Digest-California-s-property-tax-revolt-may-finally-get-rolled-back-with-new-ballot-measure#10" title="">tens of millions of dollars worth of her stocks were sold</a> earlier this year after she had received briefings on the coronavirus threat but before the markets dropped. By contrast, Loeffler's Senate salary <a href="https://www.senate.gov/CRSpubs/9c14ec69-c4e4-4bd8-8953-f73daa1640e4.pdf" target="_blank" title="">is only $174,000</a>, and she has pledged to <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/04/kelly-loeffler-georgia-senate-special-election-075218" title="">spend at least $20 million of her own fortune on her election</a>, making her charitable contributions pale in comparison to both her overall wealth and what she allegedly gained via pandemic profiteering. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588616221000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588616221000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588616221000"> Monday, May 4, 2020 · 6:17:01 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">MN-02: Republicans held their virtual convention on Saturday in this competitive suburban Twin Cities seat, and Marine veteran Tyler Kistner <a href="https://www.twincities.com/2020/05/02/political-newcomer-tyler-kistner-endorsed-gop-challenger-2nd-congressional-district-angie-craig/">decisively beat four other candidates</a> to win the party endorsement. Winning the party endorsement isn’t the same thing as winning the party’s nomination, but many candidates take it seriously and drop out of the race if they lose the convention. However, it remains to be seen whether any of the defeated contenders will keep campaigning into the August primary, or if Kistner will have the GOP side to himself. Minnesota’s <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/6/4/1855760/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-primary-calendar">filing deadline is June 2</a>, so we’ll know soon enough. Whoever emerges with the GOP nod will take on freshman Democratic Rep. Angie Craig in a seat that <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">both Barack Obama and Donald Trump narrowly carried</a>. Both parties spent millions here in 2016 and 2018, but the money race looks very lopsided right now: Craig ended March <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">with $2 million in the bank</a>, while Kistner had just shy of $100,000 to spend. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588617296000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588617296000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588617296000"> Monday, May 4, 2020 · 6:34:56 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf </a> <div class="live-update-content">KS-Sen: The anti-tax Club for Growth <a href="https://host2.advertisinganalyticsllc.com/admo/#/viewer/8ba88069-94ed-4052-a3cf-55e1de5c456a/">has gone up with a new TV ad</a> attacking Rep. Roger Marshall in the Republican primary, resorting to what has become a common subject of GOP ads: bashing China to distract from Trump's failures on the coronavirus pandemic. Their ad accuses the World Health Organization of becoming "China's puppet" and blasts Marshall for voting to fund it, an attack that is even more noteworthy in the context of experts <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/trump-freezes-us-funding-who-world-fights-pandemic" title="">widely criticizing Trump for freezing U.S. funding to the WHO</a> last month as detrimental to public health both domestically and abroad. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588617540000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588617540000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588617540000"> Monday, May 4, 2020 · 6:39:00 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf </a> <div class="live-update-content">ME-Sen: Tax March, a Democratic group that's part of the Sixteen Thirty Fund, <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2020/05/04/insurgent-left-learns-to-live-with-super-pacs-787317" title="">is spending $400,000 on a TV and digital ad buy</a> against Republican Sen. Susan Collins. Their TV commercial <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d17WHsLEn_c&feature=youtu.be" title="">attacks Collins for favoring her corporate donors over regular Mainers</a> by joining Mitch McConnell to give them a "$500 billion bailout" after having already showered them with billions in tax breaks. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588617839000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588617839000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588617839000"> Monday, May 4, 2020 · 6:43:59 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf </a> <div class="live-update-content">TX-Sen: The University of Texas at Tyler <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200502_TX.pdf" title="">has conducted a poll</a> on behalf of The Dallas Morning News, and they find an unusually high proportion of undecided voters in the Senate contest. In the Democratic primary runoff taking place on July 14, 2018 House nominee MJ Hegar leads state Sen. Royce West by 32-16. Looking at hypothetical general election matchups, Republican Sen. John Cornyn holds a 37-24 lead over Hegar and a similar 35-24 lead over West. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588623419000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588623419000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588623419000"> Monday, May 4, 2020 · 8:16:59 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf </a> <div class="live-update-content">MO-Gov: <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/missouri/" title="">Remington Research (R)</a> for the Missouri Scout: Mike Parson (R-inc): 52, Nichole Galloway (D): 39 (March: 52-39 Parson) </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588624279000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588624279000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588624279000"> Monday, May 4, 2020 · 8:31:19 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf </a> <div class="live-update-content">WV-Gov: Former state Commerce Secretary Woody Thrasher <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ppiRLyGncw&feature=emb_logo" title="">has debuted a new TV ad</a> for the GOP primary that bashes Gov. jim Justice for having "sided with the ACLU and released 70 criminals," claiming that one of the supposed non-violent offenders <a href="https://twitter.com/stevenadamswv/status/1257317465467441157" title="">released to stop the spread of coronavirus</a> included a convicted murderer. Meanwhile in the Democratic primary, Kanawha County Commissioner Ben Salango <a href="https://host2.advertisinganalyticsllc.com/admo/#/viewer/348117ef-61e2-460b-9b90-435a70dd8a97/">is airing a positive ad</a> touting how his county passed paid family leave and is providing relief aid to those in need amid the ongoing pandemic. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588624545000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588624545000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588624545000"> Monday, May 4, 2020 · 8:35:45 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf </a> <div class="live-update-content">CA-11: Democratic Rep. Mark DeSaulnier's family <a href="https://abc7news.com/mark-desaulnier-sick-hospital-released-from/6149797/">has released a statement</a> saying that the congressman has been released from the hospital, where he had been for nearly two months after suffering a fractured rib in a fall in March and developing pneumonia. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588625273000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588625273000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588625273000"> Monday, May 4, 2020 · 8:47:53 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf </a> <div class="live-update-content">GA-07: State Sen. Renee Unterman <a href="https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/the-jolt-signs-democratic-enthusiasm-georgia/FynIqKdOMyyqv2ox0DjkIJ/">is spending at least $20,000 on cable</a> for an ad opposing physician Rich McCormick in the GOP primary. The ad <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IM-pfn3mfto">says McCormick "refused to vote for Trump"</a> in 2016 and claims he's "bankrolled by Never Trumpers" who've also been opposing Senate candidate Doug Collins' bid against appointed GOP Sen. Kelly Loeffler. Unterman's spot then hits several common GOP talking points about being conservative, a "pro-life champion," and having "protected gun rights." </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588625484000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588625484000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588625484000"> Monday, May 4, 2020 · 8:51:24 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf </a> <div class="live-update-content">IA-02: House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy <a href="https://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/government/iowa-republican-primary-second-district-congress-mariannette-miller-meeks-kevin-mccarthy-20200504">has endorsed</a> state Sen. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who is the heavy frontrunner for the GOP nomination. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588625524000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588625524000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588625524000"> Monday, May 4, 2020 · 8:52:04 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf </a> <div class="live-update-content">MT-AL: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2020/05/04/insurgent-left-learns-to-live-with-super-pacs-787317" title="">is backing state Auditor Matt Rosendale</a> in the Republican primary. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588625837000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588625837000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588625837000"> Monday, May 4, 2020 · 8:57:17 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf </a> <div class="live-update-content">TN-01: Pharmacist Diana Harshbarger <a href="https://host2.advertisinganalyticsllc.com/admo/#/viewer/cbbe02b3-0413-4c0c-ad41-5921ee09979a/">is running a new TV ad</a> in the GOP primary where she resorts to the GOP's favorite punching bag in the coronavirus era, using anti-China xenophobia and calling the pandemic the "Wuhan crisis" to shift blame for Trump's failures. Harshbarger calls for "controlling our borders" and bringing pharmaceutical manufacturing back from overseas. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588627237000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588627237000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588627237000"> Monday, May 4, 2020 · 9:20:37 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf </a> <div class="live-update-content">TX-17: Former Rep. Pete Sessions is well-positioned to win July's GOP primary runoff, but the Texas Tribune reports that he <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2020/05/04/pete-sessions-campaign-legal-bills/" title="">has spent over $80,000 in campaign funds on legal fees</a> for an undisclosed purpose. The Tribune notes that most of the money has gone to a criminal defense attorney and began in October around the time that Sessions' name came up in the Ukraine scandal that Trump was impeached over. While spending campaign money on legal fees is typically allowed, the Tribune emphasizes that it's generally only for expenses related to holding office or running for it, and it's unclear whether Sessions' activities fall under that criteria without further investigation. Back in October, a federal grand jury had <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/ex-rep-sessions-subpoenaed-over-interactions-with-giuliani-giuliani-associates-11571176908?mod=djemalertNEWS">issued a subpoena</a> to Sessions as part of their investigation into Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani and two Giuliani associates, Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman, who had been charged with conspiring to funnel foreign donations to GOP candidates. The indictment said that Parnas <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/former-rep-pete-sessions-subpoenaed-by-grand-jury-investigating-giuliani-and-associates/2019/10/15/c7fb9204-ef98-11e9-8693-f487e46784aa_story.html" title="">met in 2018 with someone</a> identified only as "Congressman-1" to get his "assistance in causing the U.S. government to remove or recall the then-U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine." Prosecutors also alleged that, during this time, Parnas and Fruman were working to give more money to this congressman than was legally allowed. Multiple media organizations soon thereafter reported that this congressman was Sessions, and he responded, "If I am 'Congressman One', I could not have had any knowledge of the scheme described in the indictment or have involvement or coordination of it." Sessions had acknowledged that he'd sent a letter to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo saying that Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch was unfairly biased against Donald Trump. However, he had argued, "At no time did I take any official action" after his meeting with Parnas and Fruman, and he <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/ex-rep-sessions-subpoenaed-over-interactions-with-giuliani-giuliani-associates-11571176908?mod=djemalertNEWS">said he wrote to Pompeo</a> after he heard complaints from "several congressional colleagues" about Yovanovitch. There's been very little news since then on what Sessions' involvement with that affair was. However, this disclosure of significant spending on legal fees suggests Sessions may not be completely in the clear. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588631393000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588631393000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588631393000"> Monday, May 4, 2020 · 10:29:53 PM +00:00 · David Nir </a> <div class="live-update-content">Election Changes Please bookmark our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/1/14/1855760/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-primary-calendar">statewide 2020 primary calendar</a> and our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/2/17/1917521/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-calendar-of-key-elections-across-the-country">calendar of key downballot races</a>, both of which we're updating continually as changes are finalized. • Alabama: Civil rights organizations, including the NAACP, <a href="https://www.naacpldf.org/press-release/ldf-splc-and-adap-file-federal-lawsuit-challenging-alabamas-lack-of-safe-and-accessible-voting-during-covid-19-pandemic/">have filed a lawsuit</a> asking a federal judge to waive the requirement that absentee voters have their ballots notarized or signed by two witnesses, both for Alabama's July 14 primary runoffs and the November general election. The suit also asks that limitations on curbside voting be lifted. • Connecticut: Democratic Secretary of State Denise Merrill has announced that <a href="https://authoring.ct.gov/-/media/SOTS/ElectionServices/2020-Voting-Plan-FINAL-DRAFT-May-2-715-PM.pdf?page=9">she will send absentee ballot applications</a> to all active voters for Connecticut's Aug. 11 primaries and the November general election, part of <a href="https://authoring.ct.gov/-/media/SOTS/ElectionServices/2020-Voting-Plan-FINAL-DRAFT-May-2-715-PM.pdf">a comprehensive plan</a> to ensure the state's elections can proceed safely this year. Merrill's office will also prepay postage for voters returning both applications and ballots. In addition, the secretary of state will pay for any additional costs that Connecticut's 169 towns incur in order to safely run polling locations, as well as for extra staffers town clerks might need to handle the anticipated increase in absentee voting. However, Connecticut still requires an excuse to vote absentee, a requirement that Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/28/1940881/-Morning-Digest-After-abrupt-postponement-of-March-s-election-Ohio-s-primary-is-finally-here#2">has yet to waive</a>. • South Carolina: Several Democratic Party organizations and voters <a href="https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/41/2020/05/2020-05-01-SC-Federal-Four-Pillars-Complaint-FINAL.pdf">have filed a federal lawsuit</a> seeking to ease a number of restrictions on absentee voting in South Carolina. In particular, plaintiffs argue that the state's policy of allowing citizens 65 and older to vote absentee without an excuse while requiring one from any voter below that age violates the Constitution. They also want the court to order the state to pay for postage on ballot return envelopes and to waive the requirement that absentee ballots be witnessed by another person. In addition, the suit asks that absentee ballots be accepted so long as they are postmarked by Election Day and received within a minimum of 10 days; currently, South Carolina requires that ballots be received by 7 PM local time on Election day. In support of their argument, plaintiffs cite <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/7/1934953/-Conservative-courts-order-Wisconsin-election-to-proceed-risks-to-health-and-democracy-be-damned">the Supreme Court's ruling</a> in litigation last month over Wisconsin's elections. While that 5-4 decision was handed down by the court's conservative majority and appeared to undermine voting access, it in fact enshrined the principle that ballots should be counted if they are postmarked by Election Day rather than received by Election Day. Democratic election lawyer Marc Elias, one of the attorneys behind this latest lawsuit, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/unexpected-outcome-in-wisconsin-tens-of-thousands-of-ballots-that-arrived-after-voting-day-were-counted-thanks-to-court-decisions/2020/05/03/20c036f0-8a59-11ea-9dfd-990f9dcc71fc_story.html">has now relied on it in a number of cases</a> seeking to extend ballot receipt deadlines. Two related lawsuits <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/23/1939526/-Morning-Digest-Supreme-Court-elections-in-these-four-states-are-key-for-stopping-GOP-gerrymandering#9">are currently pending</a>, one in federal court and one in state court. • Tennessee: Voting rights organizations, including the NAACP, <a href="https://campaignlegal.org/press-releases/tennessee-must-ease-excuse-requirement-absentee-ballot-during-pandemic">have filed a federal lawsuit</a> seeking to have Tennessee's excuse requirement to vote absentee waived both for the state's Aug. 6 primary and the November general election. The suit also asks that voters be given the opportunity to correct any issues with their signatures allegedly not matching those on file. In addition, plaintiffs want third-party organizations such as themselves to be allowed to distribute absentee ballot applications—an act that can be charged as a crime under state law. • Texas: Despite a judge's <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/17/1937939/-Morning-Digest-Judge-allows-all-Texans-to-vote-absentee-by-mail-as-GOP-threatens-criminal-penalties">recent ruling to the contrary</a>, Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton <a href="https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/sites/default/files/images/admin/2020/Press/Mail-in%20Ballot%20Guidance%20Letter_05012020.pdf">has again issued a letter</a> to state officials saying that "fear of contracting COVID-19" does not constitute a valid reason for voters to ask for an absentee ballot under Texas law. As he did before, Paxton, who himself <a href="https://www.statesman.com/news/20200117/criminal-case-against-paxton-still-inching-along">is currently under felony indictment for alleged securities fraud</a>, also threatened "criminal sanctions" for third parties who provide contrary advice. Paxton claimed that, "pursuant to Texas law," the judge's order is stayed because the attorney general has appealed it. He also said that the order, issued by Travis County District Court Judge Tim Sulak, does not apply outside of Travis County (home of Austin), even though Paxton's office intervened in the case on behalf of the state of Texas and <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dBjcq60FmSM3Hrh8qNunVEj-KZ2JmCv_/view">several of Sulak's specific instructions</a> were directed at the state. The ACLU <a href="https://www.aclutx.org/en/press-releases/aclu-and-tcrp-respond-texas-attorney-generals-letter-vote-mail-laws">responded by saying</a> Paxton's letter "gets the law wrong." • Wisconsin: Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett <a href="https://milwaukee.legistar.com/LegislationDetail.aspx?ID=4421365&GUID=2B12F931-550A-42AE-B6B0-4F756B217A3B&Options=&Search=&FullText=1">has now signed legislation</a> that will send absentee ballot applications and postage-paid return envelopes to every voter in the city for the November general election. Officials in Racine, a city of 77,000 just to the south of Milwaukee, <a href="https://journaltimes.com/news/local/city-proposes-mailing-absentee-ballot-applications-envelopes-to-all-registered-voters-for-fall-election/article_3ab47c54-dab6-588a-aff5-0c4695317a80.html">are also considering a similar plan</a>. </div> </div> rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) DailyKosElections DKELiveDigests _1941962 Mon, 04 May 2020 13:00:12 +0000 Morning Digest: New GOP poll finds both of Georgia's Republican senators in danger https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/5/4/1942297/-Morning-Digest-New-GOP-poll-finds-both-of-Georgia-s-Republican-senators-in-danger The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar. <h4>Leading Off</h4> <a href="#1" name="1">●</a> GA-Sen-A, GA-Sen-B: The Republican pollster Cygnal is out with a survey of each of Georgia's 2020 U.S. Senate races for the Georgia House GOP Caucus, and it shows both Republican incumbents in real danger. Sen. David Perdue <a href="https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/internal-gop-poll-points-troubling-signs-for-georgia-republicans/hb6wfmQ7sQSkuHKXiipZdN/">leads Democrat Jon Ossoff 45-39</a> in the contest for a regular six-year term, while an unnamed third-party candidate takes 4%. The poll's sample also finds Donald Trump leading Joe Biden just 45-44 in a state he carried 50-45 four years ago. Respondents were also asked about the November all-party special election contest for the other Senate seat. GOP Rep. Doug Collins is in first with 29%, while Democratic businessman Matt Lieberman takes the second-place spot in a likely runoff with 12%. Pastor Raphael Warnock, who has the support of national Democrats, and appointed GOP Sen. Kelly Loeffler are just behind with 11% each, while a third Democrat, former U.S. Attorney Ed Tarver, is at 4%. The state House GOP caucus is led by Speaker of the House David Ralston, who is a major Collins ally. rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) 314Action AFL-CIO AZ-Sen BobHamilton CA-25 CarlBrizzi CaseyAskar CO-Sen Cygnal DailyKosElections DavidPerdue DavidRalston DavidZuckerman DianaBray DKEMorningDigest DougCollins EdTarver Elections FL-19 GA-14 GA-Sen-A GA-Sen-B GaryPeters Georgia GeorgiaHouseGOPCaucus IN-05 JakeLaturner JimJustice JohnBarge JohnJames JonOssoff JustinAmash KansasFarmBureau KatieHill KellyLoeffler KevinMcCarthy KS-02 KS-Sen LorenaGarcia MarthaMcSally MattLieberman MI-03 MI-Sen MT-Sen NancyGoroff Nevada NY-01 PeterMeijer PublicPolicyPolling RaphaelWarnock SenateMajorityPAC SteveBullock SteveDaines SteveWatkins VT-Gov WoodyThrasher WV-Gov _1942297 Mon, 04 May 2020 12:00:10 +0000 Daily Kos Elections weekly open thread https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/5/1/1941977/-Daily-Kos-Elections-weekly-open-thread <div class="dk-editor-embed embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9 center-block"> <div class="remove-embed-content">x</div> <div class="dk-editor-embed embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9 center-block"> <div class="remove-embed-content"><a class="new_iframe_placeholder" href="#">x</a></div> <a class="iframe_placeholder youtube dk-embed" href="//youtube.com/watch?v=7ZYgKCbFbWY" title="" data-frameborder="0" data-height="281" data-src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/7ZYgKCbFbWY" data-width="500">YouTube Video</a></div> </div> rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) DailyKosElections DKEOpenThreads _1941977 Fri, 01 May 2020 22:21:21 +0000 Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 5/1 https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/5/1/1940107/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-5-1 Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. Please note: The Live Digest is a 2016 and 2020 Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy. Sign up <a href="http://dailykos.com/electionsdigest" target="_blank">here</a> to receive the Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest in your inbox each weekday. <div><a name="update-1588352379000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588352379000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588352379000">Friday, May 1, 2020 · 4:59:39 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> AZ-Sen: GOP Sen. Martha McSally’s newest ad stars one of her constituents <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMSk1d9zmJk">praising her on healthcare issues</a>—a constituent who just happens to be <a href="https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/04/30/martha-mcsally-ad-features-health-care-testimonial-former-aide-kristen-douglas-arizona-senate-race/3060865001/">McSally’s former campaign manager</a>. The commercial, though, does not mention Kristen Douglas’ time running McSally’s 2014 House race or her subsequent work in her congressional office and on her 2018 Senate campaign. Douglas tells the audience that she faced massive healthcare bills after a mass was found in her brain, and that her insurance company dropped her. Douglas continues, “Just six weeks after I was given a clean bill of health, my path collided with Martha McSally. Meeting somebody like her after what I had just gone through gave me a new sense of hope.” Politico reports that this commercial is <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2020/04/30/katie-hills-super-pac-weighs-in-on-her-replacement-787247">airing on cable for $50,000</a>. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588353588000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588353588000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588353588000">Friday, May 1, 2020 · 5:19:48 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> CO-Sen: On Thursday, Denver District Court Judge Christopher Baumann ordered nonprofit head Lorena Garcia <a href="https://www.denverpost.com/2020/04/30/lorena-garcia-colorado-senate-election-2020/">onto the June 30 Democratic primary ballot</a>. Garcia had not been able to turn in the 10,500 signatures required, but Baumann ruled that, in light of disruptions caused by social distancing, she had collected enough to justify her place in the primary. Baumann recently ordered another Democrat, businesswoman Michelle Ferrigno Warren, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/28/1940881/-Morning-Digest-After-abrupt-postponement-of-March-s-election-Ohio-s-primary-is-finally-here#8">onto the ballot for the same reason</a>, but Democratic Secretary of State Jena Griswold is appealing his decision to the state Supreme Court. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588358948000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588358948000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588358948000">Friday, May 1, 2020 · 6:49:08 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer</a> GA-Sen-A, GA-Sen-B: The Republican pollster Cygnal is out with a survey of each of Georgia’s 2020 U.S. Senate races for the Georgia House GOP Caucus, and it shows both Republican incumbents in real danger. Sen. David Perdue <a href="https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/internal-gop-poll-points-troubling-signs-for-georgia-republicans/hb6wfmQ7sQSkuHKXiipZdN/">leads Democrat Jon Ossoff 45-39</a> in the contest for a regular six-year term, while an unnamed third-party candidate takes 4%. The poll’s sample also finds Donald Trump leading Joe Biden 45-44 in a state he carried 50-45 four years ago. <div class="live-update-content"> Respondents were also asked about the November all-party special election contest for the other Senate seat. GOP Rep. Doug Collins is in first with 29%, while Democratic businessman Matt Lieberman takes the second-place spot in a likely runoff with 12%. Pastor Raphael Warnock, who has the support of national Democrats, and appointed GOP Sen. Kelly Loeffler are just behind with 11% each, while a third Democrat, former U.S. Attorney Ed Tarver, is at 4%. The state House GOP caucus is led by Speaker of the House David Ralston, who is a major Collins ally. This is the first poll we’ve seen all year of Perdue’s race for a second term, and Cygnal only tested Ossoff, who was Team Blue’s nominee in the ultra-expensive 2017 special for the 6th District, against the incumbent. Two other notable Democrats, 2018 lieutenant governor nominee Sarah Riggs Amico and former Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson, are also competing with Ossoff in the June 9 primary, but Ossoff ended March with a <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/22/1939263/-Morning-Digest-The-Indiana-GOP-can-t-seem-to-shed-its-scandal-plagued-AG-but-one-guy-will-try#6">large cash-on-hand lead</a> over both his rivals. If no one takes a majority of the vote, the Democratic nomination would be decided in an August runoff. As we noted above, an unnamed third-party candidate takes 4%, and this sort of showing could potentially make a huge difference this fall. That’s because the state has an unusual law that requires candidates competing in the November general election in every race besides president to take a majority to avoid another runoff: Confusingly, the runoff for state-level general elections is set for Dec. 1, while the second round for federal general elections is on Jan. 5, 2021. In past cycles, Democratic turnout has disproportionately suffered during the second round of voting: In 2008, for example, Democrat Jim Martin trailed in the first round of Georgia's 2008 Senate race by just 3 points yet lost his runoff by 15. However, there’s no guarantee Democrats would face this kind of disadvantage if this cycle’s Senate contest went into overtime. In 2018, Democrat John Barrow <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/12/6/1817310/-Morning-Digest-New-Hampshire-lawmakers-re-elect-secretary-of-state-who-backed-GOP-voter-suppression#10">went from a 0.4% deficit</a> in the November contest for secretary of state to a 3.8% defeat the next month—still a clear move in the wrong direction, but not nearly as dramatic as what happened to Martin a decade before. If there is a runoff here, turnout on both sides may also be impacted because the special election for the state’s other seat is all but certain to go to a second round on Jan. 5. Georgia special election rules require all candidates to face off on one ballot, and if no one takes a majority then the two candidates with the most votes, regardless of party, will compete in a second round of voting. Because there are just so many candidates in this special it’s almost impossible for anyone to win outright in November. However, Cygnal’s special election portion does give Democrats reason for concern. While GOP Rep. Doug Collins is far ahead, there’s essentially a three-way tie for the second spot between appointed GOP Sen. Kelly Loeffler and two Democrats, Matt Lieberman and Raphael Warnock. If those results are on target, that means there’s a real chance that both Collins and Loeffler could advance to January, a result that would automatically keep this seat red and also potentially harm Democratic runoff turnout for the other Senate race. The good news for Loeffler’s detractors on both sides of the aisle is that the appointed senator has attracted the wrong kind of attention ever since the Daily Beast reported in March that she had <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/sen-kelly-loeffler-dumped-millions-in-stock-after-coronavirus-briefing">liquidated a number of assets</a> just before the markets tanked as the coronavirus pandemic worsened. Collins <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/6/1934586/-Morning-Digest-California-s-property-tax-revolt-may-finally-get-rolled-back-with-new-ballot-measure#10">released polls in the following weeks</a> showing her horribly unpopular, and this new Cygnal survey also shows her struggling: The incumbent posts an awful 20-47 favorable rating, while Collins is on positive ground at 32-22. (Numbers were not released for any of the Democratic candidates.) We haven’t seen any data from independent pollsters in months, though. No one has run TV ads yet attacking Loeffler over her transactions, which she’s insisted were made by “third-party advisors" without her knowledge,” but that may change soon. Great America PAC, which backs Collins, recently went up with digital ads <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2020/04/30/katie-hills-super-pac-weighs-in-on-her-replacement-787247">attacking Loeffler on the topic</a>, and <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pac-collins-releases-ad-attacking-loeffler">Fox writes</a> it “plans to release the ad digitally in Georgia in the next few weeks before buying TV spots for the ad as well.” Altogether, the group says it plans to spend seven figures here. Loeffler, though, does have more than enough personal wealth to fight back and go over both Collins and her Democratic opponents. The incumbent, who has <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938848/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-Senate-fundraising-reports-roundup">self-funded more than $10 million so far</a>, ended March with a $6.1 million to $2.2 million cash-on-hand lead over Collins, while Warnock had $1.2 million in the bank. The other two Democrats, Lieberman and Tarver, had $309,000 and $41,000 to spend, respectively. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588361978000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588361978000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588361978000">Friday, May 1, 2020 · 7:39:38 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> CO-Sen: However, another Democratic candidate, climate activist Diana Bray, announced Friday that she <a href="https://twitter.com/JustinWingerter/status/1256283813996421120">would not appeal Baumann’s decision</a> keeping her off the ballot. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588362514000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588362514000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588362514000">Friday, May 1, 2020 · 7:48:34 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> KS-Sen: Wealthy businessman Bob Hamilton is up with his first TV spot ahead of the August GOP primary, and Politico <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2020/05/01/future-forward-books-october-airtime-787278">reports that it’s running for six figures</a>. The narrator <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WaljhRPoOb8&feature=youtu.be">touts Hamilton’s business background</a> and praises him as a “Christian family man and father of 12.” Hamilton also declares he’s a “plumber, not a politician, and I’m asking for your vote.” (Note: If you’re asking for votes, you’re a politician.) </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588363450000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588363450000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588363450000">Friday, May 1, 2020 · 8:04:10 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> MI-Sen: The Democratic firm Public Policy Polling is out with another survey for the progressive group Progress Michigan, and it gives Democratic Sen. Gary Peters <a href="https://progressmichigan.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Lake-Effect-Poll-April.pdf">a 46-37 lead over Republican John James</a>; the sample also supports Joe Biden 50-42. PPP, which is polling monthly for Progress Michigan, gave Peters a similar 45-38 edge at the start of April. The news isn’t all bad for Republicans, though: Now that the Parks and Recreation Reunion Special is out, maybe someone will finally find <a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2019/08/07/political-insider-gop-attacks-jerry-peters-purpose/1931648001/">the NRSC's “Jerry Peters” jokes funny</a>. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588364252000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588364252000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588364252000">Friday, May 1, 2020 · 8:17:32 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> MT-Sen: CNN reports that the Democratic groups Senate Majority PAC is <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/01/politics/steve-daines-montana-senate-pac-ad/index.html">spending a hefty $700,000</a> on its opening ad buy against GOP Sen. Steve Daines. The <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=enru4s7lFec&feature=youtu.be">TV spot</a> declares, “Daines gave trillions in tax breaks to big corporations but pushed cuts to Medicare opposed emergency paid sick leave, and even tried to limit unemployment benefits for those thrown out of work by the coronavirus.” Daines faces a strong challenge from Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock, and the “Battle of the Steves” promises to be an expensive one. Bullock, who entered the race in March, outraised Daines <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938848/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-Senate-fundraising-reports-roundup">$3.3 million to $1.3 million</a> during the first quarter of 2020, though the incumbent ended March with a $5.6 million to $3.2 million cash-on-hand lead. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588364387000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588364387000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588364387000">Friday, May 1, 2020 · 8:19:47 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> VT-Gov: The state AFL-CIO has <a href="https://vtdigger.org/press_release/zuckerman-endorsed-by-labor/">endorsed Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman</a> in the August Democratic primary to face GOP Sen. Phil Scott. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588365021000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588365021000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588365021000">Friday, May 1, 2020 · 8:30:21 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> WV-Gov: Gov. Jim Justice is <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1P1RL_GhFM&feature=youtu.be">out with another spot</a> attacking former state Secretary of Commerce Woody Thrasher ahead of their June 9 GOP primary showdown. The narrator declares, “Thrasher designed a faulty sewage system in our town in Marion County. Thrasher’s negligence resulted in raw sewage flooding our homes for eight years!” The ad continues by declaring that, after Thrasher refused to accept a responsibility, a court forced him to pay $4 million. The on-screen text says that this settlement happed in late 2008, eight years before Justice himself <a href="https://governor.wv.gov/News/press-releases/2016/Pages/Justice-Names-Woody-Thrasher-Secretary-of-Commerce.aspx">brought Thrasher into his administration</a>. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588365786000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588365786000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588365786000">Friday, May 1, 2020 · 8:43:06 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> CA-25: Former Rep. Katie Hill, a Democrat who resigned last year after she was <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/10/28/1895661/-Freshman-Democrat-a-victim-of-revenge-porn-says-she-ll-resign-from-the-House">victimized by revenge porn</a>, is <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZYAV8e1-TE">starring in a commercial</a> for her new group, HER Time PAC, ahead of the May 12 special election. Hill, who appears in front of the White House wearing a facemask, does not mention either Democrat Christy Smith or Republican Mike Garcia in her spot. Instead, she tells the audience, “We’re all scared right now, and it’s even more dangerous because of what’s coming out of that building right behind me. But there’s something we can do about it.” Hill then encourages her former constituents to return their mail ballots before May 12 because “[T]his time, we have to vote like our lives depend on it.” The commercial is <a href="https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/04/30/katie-hills-pac-weighs-into-special-election-for-her-seat-1281393">running for $200,000 on cable TV and online</a>. The special election to succeed Hill in this competitive seat has been a very competitive race, and it’s one where both candidates have <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2020/05/01/future-forward-books-october-airtime-787278">raised and spent a comparable amount of money</a>. The only poll we’ve seen here at all, though, was a mid-March survey for Garcia from 1892 Polling that gave him a <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/23/1930094/-Morning-Digest-GOP-senators-who-dumped-stocks-ahead-of-pandemic-take-fire-from-their-own-party#12">small 43-39 edge</a>. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588366537000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588366537000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588366537000">Friday, May 1, 2020 · 8:55:37 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> FL-19, IN-05: Wealthy businessman <a href="https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1256213939857350656">Casey Askar</a> and Marion County Prosecutor <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvMABAiaC4w">Carl Brizzi</a> are the latest candidates to run commercials in GOP primaries attacking China and pledging to get tough on the world’s largest country and America’s largest trading partner. Askar, who is competing for a safely red Florida seat, also uses the racist term “Wuhan pandemic” in his ad declaring that “China must pay.” Brizzi, who is running in a competitive Indiana seat, argues that China has been “infiltrating our southern border,” an accusation he doesn’t bother to explain. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588366819000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588366819000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588366819000">Friday, May 1, 2020 · 9:00:19 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> GA-14: Former state School Superintendent John Barge uses his <a href="https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=255375802179332">new ad</a> in the June 9 GOP primary to grade both Donald Trump and “Nancy Pelosi and the socialist squad.” You can probably guess who gets awarded the A+ and who gets flunked on Bargehouse Rock. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588367292000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588367292000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588367292000">Friday, May 1, 2020 · 9:08:12 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> KS-02: On Friday, the Kansas Farm Bureau <a href="https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article242430516.html">endorsed state Treasurer Jake LaTurner</a> over freshman Rep. Steve Watkins in the August GOP primary. The Kansas City Star’s Bryan Lowry notes that, while the Farm Bureau didn’t support Watkins during his first race, it's <a href="https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1256281703041073154">rare to see it oppose an incumbent</a>. The group, which is a force in rural Kansas, did support Roger Marshall in his successful 2016 primary campaign against Rep. Tim Huelskamp in the neighboring 1st District, though. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588369521000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588369521000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588369521000">Friday, May 1, 2020 · 9:45:21 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> MI-03: House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy <a href="https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1256270993406001153">endorsed Peter Meijer</a>, an Army veteran and wealthy businessman, on Friday in the August GOP primary to succeed Libertarian presidential candidate Justin Amash. Amash, who left the GOP in July to become an independent, announced on Tuesday that he was giving up this Grand Rapids district to mount a White House bid, and he <a href="https://twitter.com/emilyelarsen/status/1255974333782073350?s=21">formally notified the House clerk</a> on Thursday that he was now a Libertarian. Amash’s move not only gives the Libertarian Party its first-ever member of Congress, it also makes him the first member House member in decades to officially identify as anything other than a Democrat, a Republican, or an independent. How many decades, though, isn’t quite clear. William Carney was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1978/11/09/archives/li-conservative-a-first-in-house.html">elected to a Long Island seat</a> as a member of New York’s Conservative Party back in 1978, but he was also able to run and win the GOP nomination under New York’s fusion voting rules. Carney, who caucused with the GOP during his tenure, only left the Conservatives to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1986/01/26/nyregion/politics-primary-troubles-seen-for-carney.html">become a Republican in 1986</a>, a move that came a few months before he <a href="https://www.newsday.com/long-island/obituaries/former-u-s-rep-william-carney-backed-shoreham-plant-dies-at-74-1.13659117">decided not to seek re-election</a>. The House’s website, though, <a href="https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/">lists Carney as a Republican</a> for each of the four Congresses he served in. The House does identify one “Independent Democrat” serving in both the 86th and 88th Congresses in the first half of the 1960s, but the last Congress that seemed to contain a member of full-fledged third-party was the 81st, which convened during the Truman administration from 1949 to 1951. That member was Rep. Vito Marcantonio, a New Yorker who represented East Harlem as a member of the left-wing American Labor Party and a favorite national GOP target: None other than California Rep. Richard Nixon won his 1950 Senate race on the other side with a campaign <a href="https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1990-04-09-me-664-story.html">tying his opponent</a>, Democratic Rep. Helen Gahagan Douglas, to Marcantonio. Like Amash, Marcantonio was originally elected to the House as a Republican. But while Marcantonio also bolted the GOP, he <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=75459">won his third term in 1938</a> as a member of his new party. Marcantonio would <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/CandidateDetail.html?CandidateID=38543">occasionally compete in</a> and sometimes win both Democratic and Republican primaries over the next decade, but he <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=75487">earned his final term in 1948</a> by defeating both parties in the general election. Two years later, at the same time that Nixon was using Marcantonio to win a Senate seat, the congressman finally <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=75488">lost the general election to a Democratic rival</a>. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588369919000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588369919000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588369919000">Friday, May 1, 2020 · 9:51:59 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> NY-01: 314 Action, a group that works to elect Democrats with scientific backgrounds, <a href="https://cl.ly/c6f667706fde">has announced</a> a “six-figure” cable TV buy backing Stony Brook University professor Nancy Goroff in the June 23 Democratic primary to face GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin. The <a href="https://vimeo.com/hgcreative/review/412383863/850160bce4">commercial argues</a> that Goroff “will use evidence for coronavirus recovery to fix our broken healthcare system and fight climate change.” </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588527795000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588527795000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588527795000"> Sunday, May 3, 2020 · 5:43:15 PM +00:00 · David Nir </a> <div class="live-update-content">Election Changes Please bookmark our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/1/14/1855760/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-primary-calendar">statewide 2020 primary calendar</a> and our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/2/17/1917521/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-calendar-of-key-elections-across-the-country">calendar of key downballot races</a>, both of which we're updating continually as changes are finalized. Georgia: A federal judge <a href="https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.gand.275762/gov.uscourts.gand.275762.83.0.pdf">has rejected a request</a> by voting rights advocates that Georgia officials be required to provide pre-paid postage for absentee ballots and ballot applications. However, the judge emphasized that her ruling only pertained to the state's June 9 primary and held out the possibility that she could reach a different conclusion regarding the Aug. 11 runoff or the November general elections. Nevada: A federal judge <a href="https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/judge-rejects-conservative-groups-attempt-to-block-planned-all-mail-primary">has rejected a lawsuit</a> brought by a conservative group that sought to prevent Republican Secretary of State Barbara Cegavske from conducting Nevada's June 9 primary by mail. The judge ruled that the plaintiffs had failed to show they would be harmed by Cegavske's plan, but even had they been able to, he concluded that their worries about voter fraud were "without any factual basis." </div> </div> rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) DailyKosElections DKELiveDigests _1940107 Fri, 01 May 2020 13:00:03 +0000 Morning Digest: Daily Kos Elections unveils our initial 2020 race ratings for the U.S. House https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/5/1/1941692/-Morning-Digest-Daily-Kos-Elections-unveils-our-initial-2020-race-ratings-for-the-U-S-House The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar. <h4>Leading Off</h4> <a href="#1" name="1">●</a> Race Ratings: Daily Kos Elections is <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/30/1941431/-Even-if-Republicans-run-the-table-that-won-t-be-enough-to-take-back-the-House-our-new-ratings-show">pleased to announce our initial House race ratings</a> for the 2020 election cycle. Including vacancies, Democrats hold 234 House seats while Republicans control 200 (the final seat is held by independent Justin Amash), meaning that the GOP needs to net 18 seats this year to retake control of the chamber. However, as our ratings illustrate, Republicans have a monumentally difficult task ahead of them. Altogether, we give Democrats an advantage in 222 seats to 197 for the GOP, while the remaining 16 we classify as Tossups (you can find specific descriptions of each category in our post). This means that, even if Republicans were to hold every seat where they have the edge and sweep the entire Tossup column, they'd still need to take five districts we rate as Lean Democratic or better in order to seize the majority. rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) AdamSchleifer AdemBunkeddeko AlexandriaOcasio-Cortez AllisonFine AndomGhebreghiorgis AndrewGarbarino AnthonyBrindisi AntonioDelgado AshaCastleberry-Hernandez BethParlato BridgetFleming CarmelitaGreco CarolynMaloney CatherineParker ChaimDeutsch CheleFarley ChrisFink ChrisJacobs ClaudiaTenney ClubForGrowth DailyKosElections DanaBalter DanForest DavidBuchwald DavidCarlucci DKE2020HouseRaceRatings DKEMorningDigest Elections EliotEngel EliseStefanik EMILYsList EvelynFarkas FrancisConole Garin-Hart-Yang HaleyStevens Indiana JackieGordon JamaalBowman JanGarbett JeffBurningham JerryNadler JoeCaldarera JohnKatko JonathanHerzog KansasFarmBureau KateSchroeder KS-Sen KY-04 KyleVanDeWater LeeZeldin LindseyBoylan MaxRose MelissaMark-Viverito MI-11 MichaelBlake MikeLiPetri MondaireJones NancyGoroff NateMcMurray NC-Gov NicoleMalliotakis NY-01 NY-02 NY-09 NY-10 NY-11 NY-12 NY-14 NY-16 NY-17 NY-18 NY-19 NY-21 NY-22 NY-23 NY-24 NY-27 OH-01 OlaHawatmeh PerryGershon RaceRatings RealFactsNC ritchietorres RogerMarshall RoyCooper RubenDiazSr SamelysLopez SC-Sen SeanMaloney securityisstrength Senate StefanMychajliw SurajPatel TedraCobb ThomasMassie ToddMcMurtry TomReed TracyMitrano UT-Gov WPAIntelligence _1941692 Fri, 01 May 2020 12:00:23 +0000 Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/30 https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/30/1940106/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-4-30 Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. Please note: The Live Digest is a 2016 and 2020 Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy. Sign up <a href="http://dailykos.com/electionsdigest" target="_blank">here</a> to receive the Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest in your inbox each weekday. <div><a name="update-1588264601000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588264601000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588264601000">Thursday, Apr 30, 2020 · 4:36:41 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> Race Ratings: Daily Kos Elections is <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/30/1941431/-Even-if-Republicans-run-the-table-that-won-t-be-enough-to-take-back-the-House-our-new-ratings-show">pleased to announce our initial House race ratings</a> for the 2020 election cycle. Including vacancies, Democrats hold 234 House seats while Republicans control 200 (the final seat is held by independent Justin Amash), meaning that the GOP needs to net 18 seats this year to retake control of the chamber. However, as our ratings illustrate, Republicans have a monumentally difficult task ahead of themselves. Altogether, we give Democrats an advantage in 222 seats to 197 for the GOP, while the remaining 16 we classify as Tossups (you can find specific descriptions of each category in our post). This means that, even if Republicans were to hold every seat where they have the edge and sweep the entire Tossup column, they’d still need to take five districts we rate as Lean Democratic or better in order to seize the majority. The big problem for the GOP is that a combination of strong Democratic incumbents and poor GOP fundraising has narrowed the map for Republicans long before Election Day. One telling example comes in Michigan’s 11th District, which <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">backed Donald Trump 50-45</a> but changed hands in 2018 when Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens captured it as an open seat. This suburban Detroit district should have automatically been a top GOP target, but Stevens ended March with a <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup" title="">huge $2.5 million war-chest</a> while her best-funded Republican opponent, self-funding businesswoman Carmelita Greco, had less than a tenth that sum. Trump could still do well enough to put his party over the top, but Stevens is very much the favorite in a race we rate as Likely Democratic. The scene that's unfolded in Michigan’s 11th is not unique. Under ordinary circumstances, seats held by freshmen members of Congress and carried by the opposite party in the most recent presidential election would be among the most vulnerable. Nevertheless, we rate another five such seats as Likely Democratic and half a dozen more as Lean Democratic. Republicans don’t need to win all of these seats to take back the House, but there's no way for them to seize the speaker's gavel without a good chunk of them. A failure to put a sufficient number of seats in play is by no means the only problem facing the GOP, though. <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/30/1941431/-Even-if-Republicans-run-the-table-that-won-t-be-enough-to-take-back-the-House-our-new-ratings-show">Check out our post for our expansive take on the big picture</a>, as well as our complete set of ratings and maps and a bonus appearance by the Whig Party. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588265754000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588265754000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588265754000">Thursday, Apr 30, 2020 · 4:55:54 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> OH-01: EMILY’s List has <a href="https://www.emilyslist.org/news/entry/emilys-list-endorses-kate-schroder-in-ohios-1st-congressional-district">endorsed Democrat Kate Schroeder</a>, who won the primary Tuesday to take on GOP Rep. Steve Chabot. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588266523000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588266523000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588266523000">Thursday, Apr 30, 2020 · 5:08:43 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> NC-Gov: The Democratic pollster Garin-Hart-Yang is <a href="https://cardinalpine.com/story/gov-coopers-support-is-surging-during-the-pandemic-even-with-trump-voters/" title="">out with a survey for the progressive group</a> Real Facts NC that gives Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper <a href="http://pulse.ncpolicywatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/RFNC-Yang-Polling-Memo-Covid-19-1.pdf">a 55-36 lead</a> over Republican Dan Forest; this sample also shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump 48-45. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588266880000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588266880000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588266880000"> Thursday, Apr 30, 2020 · 5:14:40 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">KS-Sen: This week, the Kansas Farm Bureau <a href="https://www.gbtribune.com/news/local-news/kfb-endorses-marshall-senate/">endorsed Rep. Roger Marshall</a> in the August GOP primary. The group, which is a powerful force in rural Kansas, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/7/11/1546519/-Morning-Digest-A-new-poll-gives-Kamala-Harris-a-15-point-lead-in-all-Dem-California-Senate-race#7">previously supported Marshall</a> in his successful 2016 primary bid against Rep. Tim Huelskamp, who had a terrible relationship with agriculture interests. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588268044000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588268044000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588268044000"> Thursday, Apr 30, 2020 · 5:34:04 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">KY-04: While GOP Rep. Thomas Massie found himself on the <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/27/1931887/-Trump-declares-war-on-GOP-congressman-who-held-up-coronavirus-bill">receiving of a Donald Trump Twitter tirade</a> last month after the congressman delayed the $2 trillion coronavirus economic bill, Massie’s allies at the anti-tax Club for Growth are out with a poll showing him easily winning renomination. WPA Intelligence finds Massie <a href="https://www.clubforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/CFG_KY4_PollingMemo_2004291.pdf">crushing attorney Todd McMurtry 70-13</a> in the June primary for this safely red northern Kentucky seat. Massie’s antics came during the final days of the first fundraising quarter, and so far, he seems to be benefiting financially from his time in the spotlight. Massie <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">took in $646,000 for the quarter</a>, which is almost four times what he brought in during all of 2019, and he ended March with $690,000 on hand. McMurtry raised $185,000 during this time and self-funded an additional $136,000, and he had $237,000 to spend. McMurtry may need to do more self-funding to compete, because he may have a tough time raising money from major donors. While Wyoming GOP Rep. Liz Cheney initially endorsed McMurtry and contributed to his campaign, she <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/21/1938971/-Morning-Digest-Daily-Kos-Elections-presents-our-first-quarter-House-and-Senate-fundraising-roundups#14">asked for her money back</a> weeks later after tweets surfaced that showed him using bigoted language. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588268702000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588268702000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588268702000"> Thursday, Apr 30, 2020 · 5:45:02 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">SC-Sen: Security is Strength, a super PAC supporting GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham, has <a href="https://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/election/article242373111.html">reserved $1.6 million in TV time</a> for October and early November. The State reports that the group spent $755,000 on ads earlier this year attacking Democrat Jaime Harrison. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588276075000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588276075000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588276075000"> Thursday, Apr 30, 2020 · 7:47:55 PM +00:00 · David Nir </a> <div class="live-update-content">Senate: Daily Kos political director David Nir was the inaugural guest on Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas' <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUsSf0zKkF8">new short-form YouTube show, The Brief, on Thursday</a>. The two ran down the entire Senate picture, hitting every competitive seat from Arizona to Texas in a quick, concise summary—with a few jokes thrown in, too. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1Z1i5ClfrJhyu9z1hlmDkQ/videos">Click here to subscribe</a>! (And if you're curious, <a href="https://www.earthlymission.com/the-literal-meanings-of-place-names-in-the-us-the-world/">this is the map on the wall</a> behind David.) </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588276284000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588276284000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588276284000"> Thursday, Apr 30, 2020 · 7:51:24 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">UT-Gov: On Wednesday, wealthy businessman Jeff Burningham <a href="https://www.fox13now.com/news/coronavirus/local-coronavirus-news/burningham-sues-over-lost-signature-gathering-opportunity-in-the-covid-19-pandemic">filed a lawsuit in federal court</a> asking a judge to either dramatically lower the number of signatures he needs to advance to the June 30 GOP primary or to put him directly on the ballot. Burningham noted that the court had responded to a lawsuit by another Republican, businesswoman Jan Garbett, by reducing the amount of signatures she needed to reach the primary from 28,000 to 19,040, and he <a href="https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2020/04/30/eliminated-candidate-jeff/">argued that he deserved</a> a remedy as well. Burningham’s campaign had collected about 19,150 signatures until mid-March, a little less than a month before the deadline, when he <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/17/1928090/-Morning-Digest-Ohio-cancels-in-person-voting-despite-judge-denying-request-to-delay-Tuesday-primary#9">announced that he would stop</a> because of the dangers of the coronavirus. Burningham also tried to advance to the primary by competing at the April 25 convention, but he <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/28/1940881/-Morning-Digest-After-abrupt-postponement-of-March-s-election-Ohio-s-primary-is-finally-here#10">did not earn enough support</a> from delegates. That seemed to be the end of his campaign, but he filed a lawsuit this week arguing that, if a judge won’t order him onto the ballot, Burningham should be placed there if election officials found that at least 70% of the petitions he collected were valid. Meanwhile, Garbett got some unwelcome news Wednesday when state attorneys announced that, despite the judicial order lowering the number of signatures she needed, she <a href="https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/4/29/21242091/state-says-its-mathematically-impossible-for-garbett-to-qualify-for-gop-ballot">still did not have enough</a>. Garbett had turned in about 21,000 petitions, so she could only afford to have about 10% rejected. However, the state said that election officials had reviewed 3,000 of her signatures and rejected around 60% of them, and that it was “mathematically impossible” for her to have the required 19,040. Garbett’s team responded by asking the judge to once again reduce the number of valid signatures she needs to make the ballot. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588277659000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588277659000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588277659000"> Thursday, Apr 30, 2020 · 8:14:19 PM +00:00 · David Nir </a> <div class="live-update-content">Election Changes Please bookmark our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/1/14/1855760/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-primary-calendar">statewide 2020 primary calendar</a> and our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/2/17/1917521/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-calendar-of-key-elections-across-the-country">calendar of key downballot races</a>, both of which we're updating continually as changes are finalized. • Indiana: A group of Indiana voters and a local voting rights organization <a href="https://www.tribstar.com/news/lawsuit-seeks-no-excuse-absentee-voting-for-general-election/article_d74542f6-8a47-11ea-a6ac-476bc18e87d2.html">have filed a federal lawsuit</a> asking that all voters be allowed to cast absentee ballots in the November general election. Last month, officials <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/26/1931264/-Morning-Digest-Coronavirus-leaves-Virginia-GOP-unsure-how-to-hold-House-nominating-conventions#3">waived the state's requirement</a> that voters present an excuse to vote absentee for the state's June 2 primaries but did not include the November elections in that order. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588283345000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588283345000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588283345000"> Thursday, Apr 30, 2020 · 9:49:05 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">• New York: Candidate filing closed April 2 for <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/6/4/1855760/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-primary-calendar">New York’s June 23 primaries</a>, but as usual, we had to wait several weeks before we could get a (mostly) complete list of congressional candidates. The state does publish a list of candidates who've filed for Congress, but it doesn't include all House seats. Candidates running for a district that is contained entirely within a single county or within the five boroughs of New York City file with their local election authorities, while everyone else files with the state. As a result, the state's list only covers 14 of New York's 27 congressional districts; the rest we've had to obtain from New York City, Suffolk County, and Monroe County. We've consolidated these various lists and <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1o_D_qxGSQ7zzF8TEXD4GTw568qdQmyMo/view?usp=sharing">put them into a single document here</a>. We're still missing NY-04 (which is entirely located in Nassau County), but Democratic Rep. Kathleen Rice faces minimal opposition for a fourth term. • NY-01: GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=832965">won re-election last cycle 51-47</a> against Democrat Perry Gershon, and Gershon is once again running for this <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16GoSYgRx5Mqfyfd355FMDRtr13tOAXFDOT94d9Dzwt0/edit#gid=0">eastern Suffolk County seat</a>. However, two other notable Democrats, Stony Brook University professor Nancy Goroff and Suffolk County Legislator Bridget Fleming, are also competing in the June primary. Goroff, who has the support of EMILY’s List, ended March with a <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">$646,000 to $504,000 cash-on-hand lead</a> over Gershon, though Gershon demonstrated last cycle that he’s capable of some serious self-funding. Fleming, who is the only elected official in the primary, was further behind with $305,000 on-hand. While Zeldin only pulled off a modest win in 2018, he’ll be difficult to unseat in a presidential year. While this seat narrowly supported Barack Obama in 2012, Donald Trump <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">took it 55-42 four years later</a>. Zeldin also had a hefty $1.80 million to defend himself in a race Daily Kos Elections rates as <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kHpGnR2VSAie2HYcF4R0-hv2Cc0EpdQ8Kkck51Hh2lk/edit#gid=178550510">Likely Republican</a>. • NY-02: Longtime GOP Rep. Peter King’s retirement makes this <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16GoSYgRx5Mqfyfd355FMDRtr13tOAXFDOT94d9Dzwt0/edit#gid=0">southern Long Island</a> one of Team Blue’s top pickup opportunities in the nation, but Republicans still have a good chance to keep it. The district swung <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">from 52-47 Obama to 53-44 Trump</a>, and Republicans do well downballot in this area. Daily Kos Elections rates this contrast as <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kHpGnR2VSAie2HYcF4R0-hv2Cc0EpdQ8Kkck51Hh2lk/edit#gid=178550510">Lean Republican</a>, but it’s one we’ll be watching closely for developments. While plenty of Republicans jumped in the race in the months after this seat opened up, almost all of them dropped out after Assemblyman Andrew Garbarino <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/11/1926252/-Morning-Digest-Donald-Trump-deals-yet-another-blow-to-Jeff-Sessions-by-endorsing-his-runoff-rival#8">picked up endorsements</a> from King and the leaders of the Nassau and Suffolk County Republican Parties. Fellow Assemblyman Mike LiPetri decided to stay in the primary, but Garbarino ended March <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">with a $322,000 to $136,000 cash-on-hand edge</a>. On the Democratic side, Babylon Town Councilor Jackie Gordon faces little intra-party opposition. Gordon, an Army veteran who deployed to Afghanistan in 2012, spent months challenging King before he retired, and she ended the last quarter with $536,000 to spend. • NY-09: Democratic Rep. Yvette Clarke defeated community organizer Adem Bunkeddeko in an unexpectedly close 53-47 primary last cycle, and Bunkeddeko is <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/7/23/1873652/-Morning-Digest-Puerto-Rico-governor-won-t-run-again-but-refuses-to-resign-amid-scandal-and-protests#10">back for a rematch</a>. This time, though, three other candidates are also running for this safely blue seat in <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16GoSYgRx5Mqfyfd355FMDRtr13tOAXFDOT94d9Dzwt0/edit#gid=0">central Brooklyn</a>. The most notably newcomer is New York City Councilman Chaim Deutsch, a <a href="https://forward.com/fast-forward/438634/chaim-deutsch-yvette-clarke-congress/">self-described "conservative Democrat</a>” who <a href="https://www.gaycitynews.com/brooklyn-councilmembers-quiet-anti-lgbtq-crusade/">has a record of consistently opposing LGBTQ rights</a>. Clarke ended March with a <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">$267,000 to $116,000 cash-on-hand lead</a> over Bunkeddeko, while Deutsch had $65,000 to spend. • NY-10: Longtime Democratic Rep. Jerry Nadler faces a primary challenge from Lindsey Boylan, a former economic advisor to Gov. Andrew Cuomo, in a safely blue seat that <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16GoSYgRx5Mqfyfd355FMDRtr13tOAXFDOT94d9Dzwt0/edit#gid=0">includes the West Side of Manhattan and part of southern Brooklyn</a>. Boylan <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/5/29/1860992/-Morning-Digest-Texas-mayoral-hopeful-tries-to-dispute-existence-of-police-report-on-abuse-charges#8">entered the race last spring</a> arguing that the incumbent had been slow to use his powerful post as chair of the House Judiciary Committee to fight the Trump administration. Nadler, though, later went on to play a prominent role in impeaching Donald Trump. Nadler ended March with a <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">$957,000 to $147,000 cash-on-hand lead</a> over Boylan. One other Democrat, political organizer Jonathan Herzog, is also in, but he had <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00714824/1394571/">just $27,000 on-hand</a>. • NY-11: Democrat Max Rose’ <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=832975">53-47</a> win over GOP incumbent Dan Donovan was one of the biggest upsets of 2018, and this is a constituency that Republicans badly want to take back. National Republicans, including Donald Trump, have consolidated behind Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis. While a few other local Republicans, including disgraced ex-Rep. Mike Grimm, talked about running here (Grimm <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/3/29/1846057/-Morning-Digest-Disgraced-former-New-York-GOP-congressman-90-percent-in-for-comeback-bid#1">even said at one point</a> he was “90% of the way there to run”), Malliotakis’ only intra-party foe is former Brooklyn prosecutor Joe Caldarera. Malliotakis ended March with a wide<a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup"> $884,000 to $51,000 cash-on-hand lead</a> over Caldarera, though, and she should have no trouble winning in June. The November election will be a much tougher affair for Team Red, though. Rose is one of the strongest fundraisers in the House, and he had $3.33 million in the bank at the end of the first quarter. Rose, who is a captain in the National Guard, also earned national attention in early April when he was <a href="https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/kadiagoba/coronavirus-max-rose-deployment-staten-island-new-york">deployed to Staten Island</a> to set up an emergency hospital to deal with the coronavirus pandemic. However, this is still a difficult area for Democrats. This seat, which includes <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16GoSYgRx5Mqfyfd355FMDRtr13tOAXFDOT94d9Dzwt0/edit#gid=0">all of Staten Island and part of southern Brooklyn</a>, swung <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">from 52-47 Obama to 54-44 Trump</a>, and even a strong incumbent like Rose will be in for a real fight. National Republicans have also <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HKLPJvY6M4OBXZW_IykRzwSkI_GmErUeEV7PttkDtcc/edit#gid=2047965155">reserved $1.4 million in fall TV time</a> for a contest that we rate as a <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kHpGnR2VSAie2HYcF4R0-hv2Cc0EpdQ8Kkck51Hh2lk/edit#gid=178550510">Tossup</a>. • NY-12: Democratic Rep. Carolyn Maloney <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=832942">defeated attorney Suraj Patel 60-40</a> in an expensive 2018 primary, and Patel is back for a rematch. However, while Patel outraised the congresswoman last time, Maloney ended March with a <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">$427,000 to $195,000 cash-on-hand lead</a>. Two other candidates are also running, which complicates Patel’s task. This seat, which includes the <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16GoSYgRx5Mqfyfd355FMDRtr13tOAXFDOT94d9Dzwt0/edit#gid=0">East Side of Manhattan and nearby parts of Queens and Brooklyn</a>, is safely blue. • NY-14: Freshman Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who pulled off one of the most shocking primary wins we’ve ever seen, faces an <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/10/1935982/-Morning-Digest-Two-years-after-upset-win-AOC-faces-a-well-funded-primary-challenge-at-home">expensive intra-party challenge from the right</a> from former CNBC anchor Michelle Caruso-Cabrera. Caruso-Cabrera has the backing of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, and she ended March with a large <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">$854,000 war chest</a> after just seven weeks in the race. AOC, though, has a national base of support to draw on, and she had a massive $3.51 million in the bank. Two other Democrats are also running for this safely blue seat in the <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16GoSYgRx5Mqfyfd355FMDRtr13tOAXFDOT94d9Dzwt0/edit#gid=0">East Bronx and northern Queens</a>. • NY-15: Longtime Rep. José Serrano is retiring from the <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">bluest district in the entire country</a>, and 12 fellow Democrats are running to succeed him. However, the <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16GoSYgRx5Mqfyfd355FMDRtr13tOAXFDOT94d9Dzwt0/edit#gid=0">crowded field in this Bronx seat</a> could allow New York City Councilman Ruben Diaz Sr., who has a <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/4/16/1850539/-Morning-Digest-Check-out-our-maps-and-extensive-stats-on-every-congressional-seat-s-demographics#18">long and ugly history of homophobia</a>, to win the nomination with just a plurality. A number of other candidates are running well to Diaz’s left. The best-funded contender at the end of March by far was fellow New York City Councilman Ritchie Torres, who held a <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">$939,000 to $125,000 cash-on-hand lead</a> over Diaz. Torres, who would be the first gay Latino member of Congress, also has the <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/1/31/1915249/-Morning-Digest-Dems-need-four-seats-to-flip-Michigan-s-House-Our-new-data-shows-the-top-targets#19">backing of the Hotel Trades Council</a>, which is one of the most influential unions in city politics. Assemblyman Michael Blake has the support of two other powerful unions, SEIU 32BJ and 1199 SEIU, but he had just $77,000 in the bank. Other notable candidates include former New York City Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito; New York City Councilman Ydanis Rodriguez; and activist Samelys Lopez, who has the endorsement of neighboring Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and the Working Families Party. • NY-16: Longtime Rep. Eliot Engel faces four Democratic primary opponents in this safely blue seat, which includes <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16GoSYgRx5Mqfyfd355FMDRtr13tOAXFDOT94d9Dzwt0/edit#gid=0">southern Westchester County and the northern Bronx</a>. The challenger who has attracted the most national attention so far is middle school principal Jamaal Bowman, who has the support of the Working Families Party. Engel ended March with a huge <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">$1.05 million to $217,000 cash-on-hand lead</a> over Bowman while two other contenders, educator Andom Ghebreghiorgis and attorney Chris Fink, each had about $80,000 to spend. • NY-17: Longtime Rep. Nita Lowey is retiring from a safely blue seat that includes <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18adZpIghSQQTZLrUNzEdn78ng7mnk2l4-h6IYPsv34I/edit?ts=5ca11736#gid=555991721" target="_blank">much of Westchester County and all of Rockland County</a>, and 10 fellow Democrats are running to succeed her. The best-funded contender is former federal prosecutor Adam Schleifer, who <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">had $1.52 million in the bank</a> in March after self-funding most of his campaign. Behind him in the money race is former Obama administration official Evelyn Farkas, who had $688,000 on-hand. Another candidate to watch is attorney Mondaire Jones, who was challenging Lowey before she retired. Jones, who had $544,000 in the bank, <a href="https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2019/10/10/lowey-retirement-kicks-off-scramble-for-rare-open-congressional-seat-1225535">would be the first</a> openly gay black member of Congress. (It was only after she died in 1996 that news accounts identified legendary Texas Rep. Barbara Jordan as a lesbian; she<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-out/11-black-lgbtq-history-makers-you-should-know-n848631"> never discussed her sexuality during her lifetime</a>.) The contest also includes two state legislators. Assemblyman David Buchwald had $496,000 in the bank while state Sen. David Carlucci, who was a <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/10/22/1894133/-Morning-Digest-Democrat-who-helped-keep-GOP-in-charge-of-New-York-Senate-now-running-for-Congress#1">founding member of turncoat Independent Democratic Conference</a>, had only $99,000. Also in the race are former NARAL board chair Allison Fine; Catherine Parker, who is the majority leader of the Westchester County Board of Legislators; and Army veteran Asha Castleberry-Hernandez, though none of them had much money to spend. • NY-18: Democratic Rep. Sean Maloney is seeking re-election in a <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16GoSYgRx5Mqfyfd355FMDRtr13tOAXFDOT94d9Dzwt0/edit#gid=0">Lower Hudson Valley</a> seat that swung from <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">51-47 Obama to 49-47 Trump</a>, but it doesn’t look like the GOP will be making much of an effort to beat him. The only Republican candidate is 2018 Senate nominee Chele Farley, who lost that contest <a href="https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=36&year=2018&f=0&off=3&elect=0&class=1">to Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand 67-33</a>. Maloney ended March with a wide <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">$893,000 to $258,000 cash-on-hand lead</a> in a race we rate as <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kHpGnR2VSAie2HYcF4R0-hv2Cc0EpdQ8Kkck51Hh2lk/edit#gid=178550510">Safe Democratic</a>. • NY-19: Freshman Democratic Rep. Antonio Delgado should have been a top GOP target, but national Republicans failed to recruit a strong candidate after their top choice, 2018 gubernatorial nominee Marc Molinaro, declined. Delgado ended March with a massive<a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup"> $2.65 million to $254,000 cash-on-hand lead</a> over fashion designer Ola Hawatmeh, who has been self-funding most of her campaign; the other Republican, Army veteran Kyle Van De Water, had a mere $14,000 in the bank. This Hudson Valley seat <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">swung from 52-46 Obama to 51-44 Trump</a>, so it’s still possible for the GOP to score a win here if the political climate is good for them, but we’re rating this swing seat as <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kHpGnR2VSAie2HYcF4R0-hv2Cc0EpdQ8Kkck51Hh2lk/edit#gid=178550510">Likely Democratic</a>. • NY-21: GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik defeated Democrat Tedra Cobb <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/CandidateDetail.html?CandidateID=339065">56-42 last cycle</a> in a contest that didn’t attract much attention, but their rematch has turned into a nationally-watched affair. Stefanik infuriated progressives and <a href="https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/news/politics/albany/2019/11/18/upstate-ny-rep-elise-stefanik-lauded-trump-impeachment-hearings/4228459002/">delighted Trump</a> and his fans with her antics during an impeachment hearing in November when she <a href="https://americanindependent.com/elise-stefanik-impeachment-hearing-donald-trump-ukraine-adam-schiff-new-york-gop-republicans/">sought to violate</a> House Intelligence Committee rules and then lied about why the committee's chair, Democrat Adam Schiff, had cut her off. Both candidates raised millions afterwards, and Stefanik ended March with a <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">$4 million to $2.38 million cash-on-hand lead</a>. However, as Stefanik’s large win last time demonstrated, this is a very difficult race for Team Blue. The district, which includes the farthest upstate reaches of New York, swung from <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">52-46 Obama all the way to 54-40 Trump</a>, and we rate this contest as <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kHpGnR2VSAie2HYcF4R0-hv2Cc0EpdQ8Kkck51Hh2lk/edit#gid=178550510">Safe Republican</a>. • NY-22: Democrat Anthony Brindisi <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/10/2/1889371/-Morning-Digest-GOP-ex-congresswoman-who-lost-a-seat-Trump-easily-won-accidentally-launches-2020-bid#1">unseated GOP incumbent Claudia Tenney 51-49 in 2018</a>, and Tenney is back for a rematch. The former congresswoman only faces minimal intra-party opposition, but Brindisi ended March with a wide <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">$2.16 million to $408,000 cash-on-hand lead</a>. Despite Brindisi’s huge financial edge and Tenney’s <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/10/2/1889371/-Morning-Digest-GOP-ex-congresswoman-who-lost-a-seat-Trump-easily-won-accidentally-launches-2020-bid#1">many mistakes last cycle</a>, this is still a tough race for Team Blue. This seat, which includes Binghamton, Utica, and Rome, moved from a tiny win for Mitt Romney <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">all the way to 55-39 Trump</a>, and national Republicans have <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HKLPJvY6M4OBXZW_IykRzwSkI_GmErUeEV7PttkDtcc/edit#gid=2047965155">reserved over $2 million in fall TV time</a> here. Daily Kos Elections rates this contest as a <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kHpGnR2VSAie2HYcF4R0-hv2Cc0EpdQ8Kkck51Hh2lk/edit#gid=178550510">Tossup</a>. • NY-23: GOP Rep. Tom Reed <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=832987">beat Democrat Tracy Mitrano 54-46</a> last cycle in an expensive race, and Mitrano is running again. This seat, which <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16GoSYgRx5Mqfyfd355FMDRtr13tOAXFDOT94d9Dzwt0/edit#gid=0">includes Ithaca and southwestern New York</a>, moved from <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">50-48 Romney to 55-40 Trump</a>, and Reed ended March with a wide <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">$763,000 to $206,000 cash-on-hand lead</a>. So far this contest hasn’t attracted much outside attention, and we rate it as <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kHpGnR2VSAie2HYcF4R0-hv2Cc0EpdQ8Kkck51Hh2lk/edit#gid=178550510">Safe Republican</a>. • NY-24: Rep. John Katko, who is one of just two Republican incumbents seeking re-election in a Clinton seat, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/4/18/1851092/-Morning-Digest-Arizona-Republican-says-he-won-t-resign-in-the-face-of-ethics-investigation#15">defeated Democrat Dana Balter 53-47</a> in 2018, and Balter is running again. First, though, Balter has to get past Navy veteran Francis Conole, who held a small <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">$313,000 to $268,000 cash-on-hand edge</a> at the end of March. Whoever wins the June primary will be in for a difficult race against Katko, who had $1.19 million to defend himself; the incumbent’s allies at the Congressional Leadership Fund have also <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HKLPJvY6M4OBXZW_IykRzwSkI_GmErUeEV7PttkDtcc/edit#gid=2047965155">reserved $600,000 to aid him</a>. This Syracuse seat <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">moved from 57-41 to just 49-45 Clinton</a>, and this is an area where Republicans do well downballot. Daily Kos Elections rates this contest as <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kHpGnR2VSAie2HYcF4R0-hv2Cc0EpdQ8Kkck51Hh2lk/edit#gid=178550510">Lean Republican</a>. • NY-27: The special election to succeed disgraced GOP Rep. Chris Collins, who is <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/politics/chris-collins-jail-coronavirus-delayed/index.html">scheduled to report to prison on June 23</a> after pleading guilty to insider trading charges, will take place on the same day as the regular two-year primary. (The contest was originally set for April, but Gov. Andrew Cuomo moved it due to the coronavirus pandemic.) That’s created a bit of an awkward situation for state Sen. Chris Jacobs, who is the GOP’s special election nominee but faces primary <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/1/28/1914512/-Morning-Digest-The-fix-is-in-Bitter-charges-follow-GOP-s-choice-to-succeed-convicted-congressman#1">challenges from the right</a> from both attorney Beth Parlato, who has the Conservative Party’s backing, and Erie County Comptroller Stefan Mychajliw. However, the split field could give Jacobs the advantage as the de facto incumbent; Parlato and Mychajliw will also need to win over plenty of Republican voters at the same time that they’re supporting Jacobs in the special election. Jacobs ended March with a<a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup"> $521,000 to $451,000 cash-on-hand lead</a> over Parlato, while Mychajliw had $72,000 to spend. The Democratic candidate for the special election is 2018 nominee Nate McMurray, who faces no intra-party opposition in the regular primary and had $267,000 in the bank. McMurray held Collins, who was under indictment but had not been convicted, to a <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=832991">49.1-48.7 win</a> last cycle, but he’s in for an even tougher race in June. This seat in the Buffalo suburbs moved from <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">55-43 Romney to 60-35 Trump</a>, and Jacobs doesn’t have Collins’ problems. We rate the special election as <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kHpGnR2VSAie2HYcF4R0-hv2Cc0EpdQ8Kkck51Hh2lk/edit#gid=178550510">Safe Republican</a>. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588366555000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588366555000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588366555000"> Friday, May 1, 2020 · 8:55:55 PM +00:00 · David Nir </a> <div class="live-update-content">Election Changes Please bookmark our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/1/14/1855760/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-primary-calendar">statewide 2020 primary calendar</a> and our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/2/17/1917521/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-calendar-of-key-elections-across-the-country">calendar of key downballot races</a>, both of which we're updating continually as changes are finalized. • Georgia: A federal judge <a href="https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.gand.275762/gov.uscourts.gand.275762.83.0.pdf">has rejected a request</a> by voting rights advocates that Georgia officials be required to provide pre-paid postage for absentee ballots and ballot applications. However, the judge emphasized that her ruling only pertained to the state's June 9 primary and held out the possibility that she could reach a different conclusion regarding the Aug. 11 runoff or the November general elections. • Nevada: A federal judge <a href="https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/judge-rejects-conservative-groups-attempt-to-block-planned-all-mail-primary">has rejected a lawsuit</a> brought by a conservative group that sought to prevent Republican Secretary of State Barbara Cegavske from conducting Nevada's June 9 primary by mail. The judge ruled that the plaintiffs had failed to show they would be harmed by Cegavske's plan, but even had they been able to, he concluded that their worries about voter fraud were "without any factual basis." </div> </div> rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) DailyKosElections DKELiveDigests _1940106 Thu, 30 Apr 2020 13:00:16 +0000 Morning Digest: Justin Amash's presidential bid opens up potentially competitive Michigan House seat https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/30/1941415/-Morning-Digest-Justin-Amash-s-presidential-bid-opens-up-potentially-competitive-Michigan-House-seat The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar. <h4>Leading Off</h4> <a href="#1" name="1">●</a> MI-03: On Tuesday evening, Republican-turned-independent Rep. Justin Amash announced that he was <a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2020/04/29/amash-confident-winning-white-house-bid/3046156001/">forming an exploratory committee</a> to run for president as a member of the Libertarian Party. Michigan doesn't allow candidates to run for president and for Congress at the same time, and Amash soon confirmed that he was giving up his seat in the Grand Rapids area. Amash, who left the GOP last year, also said that he'd be informing the House clerk <a href="https://twitter.com/nannburke/status/1255476281791205376">that he's now a Libertarian</a>, which would give the party its first-ever member of Congress. The Libertarian Party is <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/28/politics/justin-amash-exploratory-committee/index.html" title="">scheduled to award its presidential nomination</a> in late May, so Amash will soon know if he'll be its standard bearer. However, he does have a backup option if delegates reject him: While Michigan's filing deadline for major party candidates is May 8, everyone else <a href="https://www.michigan.gov/documents/sos/2020_Elec-Dates-Booklet_ED-12_10-09-19_668275_7.pdf#page=4">has until July 16 to turn in their paperwork</a>. rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) AZ-Sen CA-25 CalCunningham California ChristySmith ClubForGrowth CO-Sen DailyKosElections DanForest DianaBray DKEMorningDigest DSCC Elections GA-09 IA-04 IA-Sen JeanSchmidt JoyceBeatty JustinAmash KateSchroder KeepAmericaGreatPAC KrisKobach KS-Sen KweisiMfume MattGurtler MayaRockeymooreCummings MD-07 MI-03 MikeGarcia MorganHarper MT-Sen NC-Gov NC-Sen NewYork NikkiFoster OH-01 OH-03 Ohio OHstateHouse RandyFeenstra RhodeIsland RoyCooper Senate SouthCarolina SteveChabot SteveKing SurveyUSA Texas ThomTillis _1941415 Thu, 30 Apr 2020 12:00:08 +0000 Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/29 https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/29/1940105/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-4-29 Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. Please note: The Live Digest is a 2016 and 2020 Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy. Sign up <a href="http://dailykos.com/electionsdigest" target="_blank">here</a> to receive the Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest in your inbox each weekday. <div><a name="update-1588174972000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588174972000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588174972000">Wednesday, Apr 29, 2020 · 3:42:52 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> MD-07: The <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/15/1937287/-Morning-Digest-Senate-GOP-s-campaign-arm-reserves-33-million-in-TV-ads-across-these-seven-states#7">almost all-mail general election</a> for the final months of the late Rep. Elijah Cummings’ term took place on Tuesday, and former Democratic Rep. Kweisi Mfume <a href="https://www.wbaltv.com/article/election-results-2020-maryland-congressional-district-7-special-general-election-results/32290971#">won 73-27</a> in a seat that <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">Hillary Clinton carried 76-20</a>. Mfume represented a previous version of this Baltimore-based seat from 1987 until he resigned in 1996 to lead the NAACP. However, former Rep. Rick Nolan <a href="https://www.marylandmatters.org/2020/04/29/mfume-headed-back-to-hill-but-no-one-knows-when/" target="_blank">still </a><a href="https://www.marylandmatters.org/2020/04/29/mfume-headed-back-to-hill-but-no-one-knows-when/" target="_blank" title="">holds the record for the longest gap</a> in congressional service: The Minnesota Democrat retired in 1981 and returned 32 years later in 2013. Mfume does have one more contest in his near future, but it doesn’t look very competitive. The primary for the full two-year term is on June 2, and Mfume faces both former state party chair Maya Rockeymoore Cummings, who is Elijah Cummings’ widow, state Sen. Jill Carter, and Del. Jay Jalisi. This group faced off in the February special election primary, which ended with Mfume decisively <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=873113">defeating Rockeymoore Cummings 43-17</a>; Carter and Jalisi took 16% and 2%, respectively. P.S. In a tweet encouraging people to vote on Tuesday, <a href="https://twitter.com/MayaRCummings/status/1255212435079868423">Rockeymoore Cummings wrote</a>, “A lot of people have asked me if you can write my name in. The answer is yes.” Only <a href="https://elections.maryland.gov/elections/2020/results/Special_General/gen_results_2020_3_009X.html">about 1% of voters</a> ended up writing in another candidate’s name, though, and it’s not clear how many of them selected Rockeymoore Cummings. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588175386000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588175386000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588175386000">Wednesday, Apr 29, 2020 · 3:49:46 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> Ohio: After an <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/17/1928090/-Morning-Digest-Ohio-cancels-in-person-voting-despite-judge-denying-request-to-delay-Tuesday-primary">abrupt cancellation</a>, Ohio’s primaries, originally scheduled for March 17, took place on Tuesday. The election took place almost entirely by mail, and only voters with disabilities or those who lacked a home address were allowed to vote in person. Ballots will <a href="https://radio.wosu.org/post/ohio-voting-guide-what-know-about-2020-election">still be accepted through May 8</a> as long as they were postmarked by Monday, so, the margin may shift in some races. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588176248000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588176248000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588176248000">Wednesday, Apr 29, 2020 · 4:04:08 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> OH-01: Former healthcare executive Kate Schroder defeated retired Air Force pilot Nikki Foster <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/28/1941085/-2020-Ohio-primary-election-results">by a decisive 68-32 margin</a> in the Democratic primary to face GOP Rep. Steve Chabot. This seat in the Cincinnati area was heavily gerrymandered to keep Chabot, who lost re-election in a previous version of this district in 2008 but returned two years later, from going down again. However, Donald Trump only carried the 1st District <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">by a modest 51-45 margin</a>, and Chabot himself won an <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=833444">expensive re-election campaign 51-47</a> in 2018. Chabot’s campaign was also thrown into turmoil last summer <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/9/6/1883918/-Vulnerable-GOP-congressman-under-scrutiny-for-124-000-that-just-popped-up-in-his-campaign-account">when the FEC sent a letter</a> asking why the congressman's first-quarter fundraising report was belatedly amended to show $124,000 in receipts that hadn't previously been accounted for. From there, a bizarre series of events unfolded. First, Chabot's longtime consultant, Jamie Schwartz, shuttered his firm, called the Fountain Square Group, and allegedly disappeared. Then Schwartz's father, Jim Schwartz, told reporters that despite appearing as Chabot's treasurer on his FEC filings for many years, he had in fact never served in that capacity. Chabot's team was certainly bewildered, because<a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/9/19/1886423/-Morning-Digest-Longtime-House-Republican-is-undecided-about-re-election-in-swingy-New-York-district#13"> it issued a statement saying</a>, "As far as the campaign was aware, James Schwartz, Sr. has been the treasurer since 2011." Evidently there's a whole lot the campaign wasn't aware of. The elder Schwartz also claimed of his son, "I couldn't tell you where he's at" because "he's doing a lot of running around right now." Well, apparently, he’d run right into the arms of the feds. In December, local news station Fox19 reported that Jamie Schwartz<a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/12/13/1905277/-Morning-Digest-New-2019-election-data-shows-Mississippi-s-Jim-Crow-era-law-still-harms-black-voters#14"> had turned himself in</a> to the U.S. Attorney's office, which, Fox19 said, has been investigating the matter "for a while." Adding to the weirdness, it turned out that Chabot<a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/10/21/1893847/-Morning-Digest-Florida-Republican-retires-soon-after-he-didn-t-rule-out-backing-impeachment-inquiry#11"> had paid Schwartz's now-defunct consultancy</a> $57,000 in July and August for "unknown" purposes. Yes, that's literally the word Chabot's third-quarter FEC report used to describe payments to the Fountain Square Group<a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00301838/1358734/sb/17"> no fewer than five times</a>. (Remember how we were saying the campaign seems to miss quite a bit?) We still don't know what those payments were for, or what the deal was with the original $124,000 in mystery money that triggered this whole saga. Chabot himself has refused to offer any details, insisting only that he's been the victim of an unspecified "financial crime." There haven’t been any public developments since December, but until there’s a resolution, this story always has the potential to resurface at exactly the wrong time for Chabot. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588176541000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588176541000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588176541000">Wednesday, Apr 29, 2020 · 4:09:01 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> OH-03: Democratic Rep. Joyce Beatty won renomination in this safely blue Columbus seat by defeating Morgan Harper, a former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau adviser, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/28/1941085/-2020-Ohio-primary-election-results">68-32</a>. Harper, who is 36 and a first-time candidate, had <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/10/24/1894622/-Morning-Digest-With-NC-gerrymanders-looking-doomed-GOP-congressman-concludes-he-likely-is-too#9">contrasted herself against Beatty</a>, who is 69 and has held elected office for two decades, by calling for generational change. However, while Harper raised a credible amount of money, she was always at a big disadvantage against the well-funded incumbent. Beatty also had considerably more cash left to use than Harper when the race was unexpectedly extended, and the incumbent kept up her spending advantage over the final weeks. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588177712000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588177712000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588177712000">Wednesday, Apr 29, 2020 · 4:28:32 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> OH State House, Where Are They Now?: Former GOP Rep. Jean Schmidt, who <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/1/17/1826864/-Morning-Digest-As-he-mulls-a-Kansas-Senate-bid-Republican-Kris-Kobach-has-a-date-with-a-grand-jury#12">lost renomination in a 2012 upset</a> against now-Rep. Brad Wenstrup, looks to be on-track to return to her old stomping grounds in the Ohio state House. Schmidt ended Tuesday evening with a 44-42 lead―<a href="https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/2020/04/28/ohio-primary-2020-mike-dewines-daughter-alice-dewine-loses-primary/3045867001/">a margin of 287 votes</a>―in the GOP primary for House District 65, which is based in Clermont County to the east of Cincinnati. There are close to 3,000 absentee ballots left to tally countywide (HD-65 makes up just over 60% of the county), so it may be a little while before we have a resolution. This seat <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YZRfFiCDBEYB7M18fDGLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=123466262">backed Donald Trump 66-29</a>, so the GOP nominee should have little trouble in November. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588181106000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588181106000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588181106000">Wednesday, Apr 29, 2020 · 5:25:06 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> MI-03: On Tuesday evening, Republican-turned-independent Rep. Justin Amash announced that he was <a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2020/04/29/amash-confident-winning-white-house-bid/3046156001/">forming an exploratory committee</a> to run for president as a member of the Libertarian Party. Michigan doesn’t allow candidates to run for president and for Congress at the same time, and Amash soon confirmed that he was giving up his seat in the Grand Rapids area. Amash, who left the GOP last year, also said that he’d be informing the House clerk <a href="https://twitter.com/nannburke/status/1255476281791205376">that he’s now a Libertarian</a>, which would give the party its first-ever member of Congress. The Libertarian Party is <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/28/politics/justin-amash-exploratory-committee/index.html">scheduled to award its presidential nomination</a> in late May, so Amash will soon know if he’ll be its standard bearer. However, he does have a backup option if delegates reject him: While Michigan’s filing deadline for major party candidates is May 8, everyone else <a href="https://www.michigan.gov/documents/sos/2020_Elec-Dates-Booklet_ED-12_10-09-19_668275_7.pdf#page=4">has until July 16 to turn in their paperwork</a>. For now, though, we have an open seat race in an area that’s been friendly to the GOP for a long time. Gerald Ford himself represented Grand Rapids for decades, and the current 3rd District went <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">from 53-46 Romney to 52-42 Trump</a>. However, Democrats may still have an opening if 2020 turns out to be a favorable year. 2018 GOP gubernatorial nominee Bill Schuette took the seat <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17yr9mcAtuUdNjI9NEPYKxXsEldzzQ2ZaDwEAbnPRyS4/edit#gid=497907023">by a very slim 48.6-48.2 margin</a> while he was losing statewide 53-44, while GOP Senate nominee John James carried the district by a modest 51-47 that same year while he was going down 52-46. Several candidates were already running against Amash, and while the deadline to run in the August primary isn’t until next month, it’s unlikely the field will expand. Congressional candidates need to <a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/04/25/judge-rejects-petition-signature-request-state-michigan/3010988001/">turn in 1,200 valid signatures</a> to make the ballot this year, and social distancing makes that task especially difficult. The main GOP candidates are Army veteran and wealthy businessman Peter Meijer and state Rep. Lynn Afendoulis, while attorney Hillary Scholten has the Democratic side to herself. Amash’s decision to leave Congress will mark the end of a 10-year career defined by fights with GOP leaders. Amash first ran for the House in 2010 as a first-term state representative who had already established a reputation for libertarian principles: Notably, Amash was the only state lawmaker <a href="https://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/2010/07/do_rep_justin_amashs_no_votes.html">to oppose 59 different bills</a>, and he posted explanations for each negative vote on his Facebook page. Amash was one of several Republicans to campaign to succeed retiring Rep. Vern Ehlers, and he earned the support of the anti-tax Club for Growth and <a href="https://www.mlive.com/talkingpolitics/2010/02/spokesman_dick_and_betsy_devos.html">local conservative powerplayers Dick and Besty DeVos</a>. Amash <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=625186">won the primary 40-26</a>, and he had no trouble in November. Amash brought to D.C. his habit of voting no on any bills that didn’t pass his personal purity test, as well as a reputation for being difficult to work with. In late 2012, Amash was one of three GOP House members who <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/house-leaders-make-examples-of-obstinate-members-085034">were removed from their committees</a> for, as one unnamed member put it, being “the most egregious a—holes” in the caucus. Amash <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2015/01/john-boehner-house-speaker-vote-2015-113968">refused to vote for John Bohner</a> in the following year’s speakership election, and he <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CRECB-2015-pt1/pdf/CRECB-2015-pt1-Pg29-3.pdf">opposed him again two years later</a>. Amash had more success with the GOP’s emerging tea party wing, though, and he was one of the founding members of the <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/10/justin-amash-house-freedom-caucus-1359614">nihilist House Freedom Caucus</a>. Amash’s establishment enemies backed wealthy businessman Brian Ellis in the 2014 primary in what turned into an expensive and nasty race. Ellis attempted to portray Amash as weak on abortion issues and <a href="http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/210513-amash-opponent-calls-him-al-qaedas-best-friend-in-ad">even labeled him</a> “Al Qaeda's best friend in Congress,” while the Club for Growth <a href="https://www.rollcall.com/2014/07/31/club-for-growth-back-on-tv-for-justin-amash/">spent heavily to defend the incumbent</a>. Amash <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=792234">won 57-43</a>, though, and he was never again seriously threatened. Amash’s final break with the GOP came from his frustration with Donald Trump. Amash was the rare Republican who never fell into line with the administration, and he <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/3/12/1841314/-Morning-Digest-This-Georgia-Democrat-is-one-of-the-lousiest-in-the-House-and-he-may-get-a-primary#8">openly started musing</a> about a third-party or independent presidential bid in March of last year. Two months later, Amash took to social media and wrote that, <a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2019/05/20/state-lawmaker-primary-challenge-amash/3738134002/">after reading the Mueller Report</a> he believed that Trump “has engaged in impeachable conduct.” That attracted a typically belligerent response from Trump, and a number of candidates soon entered the GOP primary against Amash as his old allies almost all abandoned him. Amash announced in July that he was <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/7/4/1869406/-After-weeks-of-calling-for-Trump-impeachment-Michigan-congressman-leaves-GOP-to-become-independent">leaving the GOP to become an independent</a>, and he voted to impeach Trump at the end of last year. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588182826000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588182826000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588182826000">Wednesday, Apr 29, 2020 · 5:53:46 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> CO-Sen: On Tuesday, Denver District Court Christopher Baumann <a href="https://www.coloradopolitics.com/quick-hits/judge-rules-bray-wont-appear-on-primary-ballot-despite-covid-19-obstacles-to-petition-drive/article_8f54cf62-8988-11ea-a3ba-fbd8a6fff168.html#utm_source=coloradopolitics.com">ruled against</a> placing climate activist Diana Bray in on the June Democratic primary ballot. Bray had only turned in just over 2,700 of the necessary 10,500 signatures, and Baumann argued that she had not demonstrated a “significant modicum of support” from the state’s voters. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588182971000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588182971000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588182971000">Wednesday, Apr 29, 2020 · 5:56:11 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> KS-Sen: Rep. Roger Marshall’s allies at Keep Kansas Great PAC <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/29/1941147/-Morning-Digest-GOP-congressman-facing-scandal-rumors-and-his-primary-foe-struggle-to-raise-money#8">recently ran a spot</a> against former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach ahead of the August GOP primary, and Advertising Analytics reports that the size of the buy was <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2020/04/29/what-happened-in-ohio-787218">at least $35,000</a>. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588183330000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588183330000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588183330000">Wednesday, Apr 29, 2020 · 6:02:10 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> CA-25: Democrat Christy Smith is out with what Politico <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2020/04/29/what-happened-in-ohio-787218">describes as her “closing TV spot”</a> ahead of the May 12 special election. The narrator <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUcG_KKQO_g&feature=youtu.be">goes after Donald Trump’s handling</a> of the coronavirus crisis and argues that Republican Mike Garcia “attacks anyone who doesn’t agree with Trump.” The commercial then shows a clip of Garcia saying that “everyone should have to figure out how to fend for themselves.” The rest of the spot praises Smith’s work during the pandemic. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588183510000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588183510000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588183510000">Wednesday, Apr 29, 2020 · 6:05:10 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> GA-09: State Rep. Matt Gurtler picked up an endorsement this week <a href="https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/the-jolt-stacey-abrams-says-joe-biden-will-make-women-proud/t1kYLMRDR2FeDk1fqs3EwO/">from the radical anti-tax Club for Growth</a> ahead of the crowded June GOP primary for this safely red seat. Gurtler has spent his two terms in the legislature <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/2/13/1918785/-Morning-Digest-GOP-House-candidate-welcomes-Trump-endorsement-His-district-s-voters-probably-won-t#8">fighting with party leaders</a>, which makes him an ideal candidate for the Club. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588184047000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588184047000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588184047000">Wednesday, Apr 29, 2020 · 6:14:07 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> NC-Sen, NC-Gov: SurveyUSA is out with a poll for WRAL-TV that has <a href="http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8e72c24e-b823-4a36-b5d6-984918df4ef9" target="_blank">some good news for Team Blue</a>. Democrat Cal Cunningham posts a small 41-39 lead over GOP Sen. Thom Tillis, while Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper leads Republican Dan Forest 57-30. This sample also shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump 50-45. April polls have consistently shown Cooper, who has received strong marks for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, leading Forest by double digits, but there’s less agreement on the state of the Senate race. The conservative Civitas Institute released numbers two weeks ago from the GOP firm Harper Polling that <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/16/1937612/-Morning-Digest-Yet-another-poll-finds-Democrats-positioned-to-flip-GOP-held-Arizona-Senate-seat#8">showed Tillis ahead 38-34</a>, while the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling found Cunningham ahead 47-40 around that same time. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588184758000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588184758000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588184758000">Wednesday, Apr 29, 2020 · 6:25:58 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> IA-04: State Sen. Randy Feenstra is out with a poll from American Viewpoint that shows him trailing white supremacist Rep. Steve King <a href="https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000171-c3ae-d9e7-a3f1-cbffde2f0000">by a modest 41-34</a> in the June 2 GOP primary; another 8% opt for another candidate. While Feenstra is down, the memo says that this is a big shift in his favor from late January, when a previously-unreleased poll found King up 53-22. We haven’t seen any other surveys of the contest for this rural western Iowa seat all year. Feenstra is also using his <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/21/1938971/-Morning-Digest-Daily-Kos-Elections-presents-our-first-quarter-House-and-Senate-fundraising-roundups#13">huge financial edge</a> over King to air a spot <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BCaDefzzkCw&feature=youtu.be">contrasting the two candidates</a>. The narrator declares, “Steve King couldn't protect our farmers, and couldn’t defend President Trump from impeachment.” He continues, “King lost his congressional committees, can’t do his job, can’t protect us.” The rest of the commercial praises Feenstra as an effective and pro-Trump conservative. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588185996000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588185996000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588185996000">Wednesday, Apr 29, 2020 · 6:46:36 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> Senate: On Tuesday, the DSCC announced its <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2020/04/29/what-happened-in-ohio-787218">first wave of TV and digital ad reservations</a> for the fall. The Democratic group’s initial bookings consists of $30.6 million in four GOP-held Senate seats: <ul> <li>Arizona (Martha McSally): $6.4 Million</li> <li>Iowa (Joni Ernst): $7.3 Million</li> <li>Montana (Steve Daines): $5.2 Million</li> <li>North Carolina (Thom Tillis): $11.7 Million</li> </ul> The DSCC’s reservations come weeks after its allies at <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/30/1932722/-New-TV-reservations-foreshadow-an-expensive-fight-for-Iowa-s-Republican-senator">Senate Majority PAC</a>, as well as the GOP organizations <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/15/1937287/-Morning-Digest-Senate-GOP-s-campaign-arm-reserves-33-million-in-TV-ads-across-these-seven-states#1">NRSC</a> and <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/23/1930462/-Mitch-McConnell-s-super-PAC-books-67-million-in-fall-TV-time-to-protect-GOP-s-Senate-majority">Senate Leadership Fund</a>, made their own first wave of bookings. All four groups made their largest reservations in North Carolina, a race that could very well decide control of the U.S. Senate in 2020. What’s more surprising, though, is that all four organizations also booked millions for Iowa, which has <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/30/1932722/-New-TV-reservations-foreshadow-an-expensive-fight-for-Iowa-s-Republican-senator">long looked like a reach target</a> for Democrats. The state swung hard to the right in 2014 and 2016, and while Democrats did considerably better last cycle, GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds still won a close contest for a full term. We haven’t seen a single poll of the Senate race since December, so we don’t have a good sense for how vulnerable incumbent Joni Ernst is. However, this quartet of well-funded groups is at least acting like this race is very much in play. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588196248000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588196248000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588196248000">Wednesday, Apr 29, 2020 · 9:37:28 PM +00:00 · David Nir </a> <div class="live-update-content"> Election Changes Please bookmark our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/1/14/1855760/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-primary-calendar">statewide 2020 primary calendar</a> and our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/2/17/1917521/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-calendar-of-key-elections-across-the-country">calendar of key downballot races</a>, both of which we're updating continually as changes are finalized. California: The Board of Supervisors in Los Angeles County, which is the largest county in the nation, <a href="https://www.cbs8.com/article/news/local/los-angeles-county-to-send-vote-by-mail-ballots-to-all-registered-voters-in-november/509-9c2c92b2-4b27-4f63-bf87-d3aeeb56fb06">has voted to mail a ballot</a> to every voter for the November general election. The county is home to more than 10 million people and <a href="https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/ror/15day-presprim-2020/county.pdf#page=3">has more than 5.5 million registered voters</a>. While voting by mail is very popular in California, it's been less so in Los Angeles: <a href="https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov/2018-general/sov/03-voter-participation-stats-by-county.pdf">45% of L.A. voters cast ballots by mail in 2018</a>, compared to 72% in the rest of the state. New York: Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/28/andrew-yang-lawsuit-new-york-primary-217349">has sued the New York State Board of Elections</a>, asking that New York's June 23 Democratic primary for president be reinstated. Earlier this week, the board canceled the primary. Rhode Island: Democratic Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea says every voter <a href="https://www.abc6.com/ri-residents-to-receive-mail-in-ballots-for-state-primary/">will be sent an absentee ballot application</a> for Rhode Island's June 2 presidential primary. The effort does not appear to apply to the state's downballot primaries, which will not take place until Sept. 8. South Carolina: Republican Gov. Henry McMaster <a href="https://www.thestate.com/news/coronavirus/article242340221.html">has postponed a number of local elections</a> that were set to take place on May 5 and May 12. New dates have not yet been set. Texas: A group of Texas voters, supported by the National Redistricting Foundation, <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e909f4422f7a40a188de597/t/5ea991c0774c731ba9972f1c/1588171201803/Gloria.v.Hughs.pdf">have filed a lawsuit in federal court</a> alleging that the state's practice of allowing all voters 65 or older to cast absentee ballots without an excuse while requiring an excuse for anyone younger violates the Constitution. Specifically, the suit charges that the law in question <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/interactive-constitution/amendment/amendment-xxvi">violates the 26th Amendment</a>, which guarantees that the right to vote "shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of age." Two other cases on the issue of Texas' excuse requirement are still pending. <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/21/1938971/-Morning-Digest-Daily-Kos-Elections-presents-our-first-quarter-House-and-Senate-fundraising-roundups#6">In one</a>, filed in state court, a judge ruled that all voters can cite the ongoing coronavirus pandemic to request an absentee ballot, though Republicans have said they will appeal. <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/8/1935319/-Morning-Digest-Why-Richmond-Virginia-has-one-of-the-country-s-strangest-electoral-systems#5">A second similar case</a> in federal court awaits a ruling. Separately, commissioners in Harris County have allocated $12 million in new election funds, which would allow the county to mail ballots to every voter for the November general election. Harris is home to Houston and is the largest county in the state, with 4.7 million people. </div> </div> rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) DailyKosElections DKELiveDigests _1940105 Wed, 29 Apr 2020 13:00:07 +0000 Morning Digest: GOP congressman facing scandal rumors and his primary foe struggle to raise money https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/29/1941147/-Morning-Digest-GOP-congressman-facing-scandal-rumors-and-his-primary-foe-struggle-to-raise-money The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar. Ohio: The Buckeye State held its primary on Tuesday, and we'll recap the outcomes of key races in our next Digest. You can <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/28/1941085/-/">find the results of the election here</a>. <h4>Leading Off</h4> <a href="#1" name="1">●</a> KS-02: On Tuesday, EMILY's List <a href="https://www.emilyslist.org/news/entry/emilys-list-endorses-michelle-de-la-isla-in-kansas-2nd-congressional-distri" title="">endorsed Topeka Mayor Michelle De La Isla</a> in the contest to take on freshman GOP Rep. Steve Watkins. Kansas' 2nd District <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">backed Trump 56-37</a>, but Watkins' ongoing primary and legal issues could give De La Isla, who doesn't have any serious Democratic primary opposition in August, an opening. Watkins spent the end of the summer<a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/8/23/1880951/-Kansas-Republican-refuses-to-resign-as-rumors-swirl-about-unrevealed-scandal"> dogged by intense speculation</a> that he'd resign from office due to an unspecified (and still unrevealed) scandal. Soon thereafter, he drew<a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/9/4/1883372/-Kansas-state-treasurer-launches-GOP-primary-bid-against-congressman-dogged-by-scandal-rumors" title=""> a serious challenge</a> in the GOP primary from state Treasurer Jake LaTurner, who argued that Watkins was such a weak candidate that he'd put this seat into play. LaTurner didn't drop any obvious clues about what the rumors dogging the congressman were, though, and instead pointed to Watkins' <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=833271" title="">narrow 48-47 win</a> in the 2018 general election. rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) AmyKennedy AZ-Sen ClaytonFuller ClubForGrowth DailyKosElections DanRodimer DanSchwartz DavidPerdue DKEMorningDigest EDF eduardobhatia Elections EMILYsList FL-19 GA-14 GA-Sen-A GaryPeters JakeLaturner JanGarbett JoeCunningham KathyLanding KeepKansasGreatPAC KrisKobach KS-02 KS-Sen LeagueofConservationVoters Louisiana majorityforward MarthaMcSally Massachusetts ME-Sen MI-Sen MichelleDeLaIsla MT-Gov NewJerseyEducationAssociation NJ-02 NRDC NV-03 onenation PedroPierluisi Pennsylvania PeteSessions PR-Gov ReneeSwann RogerMarshall SC-01 ScottBland SteveWatkins SusanCollins SusieLee TeresaTomlinson ThomasWright TriciaZunker TX-17 UT-Gov Virginia WandaVazquez WhitneyWilliams WI-07 WilliamFiglesthaler YulinCruz _1941147 Wed, 29 Apr 2020 12:00:06 +0000 Live Coverage: 2020 Ohio primaries https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/28/1941091/-Live-Coverage-2020-Ohio-primaries After an abrupt cancellation, Ohio’s primaries, originally scheduled for March 17, are finally here. Notably, this election was conducted almost entirely by mail and will feature virtually no in-person voting. The majority of results will come in when “polls” close at 7:30 ET, although as long as ballots were postmarked by Monday, they will still count if they are received within 10 days of Election Day. It’s therefore possible we won’t know final results in some races tonight. As returns come in, check out our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/27/1940736/-Ohio-downballot-primary-preview-Democrats-compete-to-take-on-vulnerable-Republican-congressman" target="_blank">preview of tonight’s key contests</a>. Results: <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/04/28/1941085/-" target="_blank">OH</a> <div> <a name="update-1588123919000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588123919000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588123919000"> Wednesday, Apr 29, 2020 · 1:31:59 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser </a> <div class="live-update-content">So for those just joining us, tonight is the Ohio primary, delayed from March 17th due to COVID-19 concerns and moved to an all-mail format, as a result. Results are trickling in, mainly from smaller and less populous counties. The only one of the seven largest counties in the state to fully report thus far has been Montgomery County (Dayton), which is not a county with what is projected to be a particularly competitive Congressional race. We do have partial returns in OH-01, which will be competitive in the Fall and where the Democratic primary pits former healthcare executive and city council staffer Kate Schroder (who leads with 55%) and engineer and former Air Force pilot Nikki Foster (who has 45%). The race is far from over, given that the population center of the district (Cincinnati’s Hamilton County) has yet to report. In addition, we have no returns yet from Franklin County (Columbus), where the most competitive primary pf the night pits incumbent Rep. Joyce Beatty against former CFPB advisor Morgan Harper, who has support from Justice Democrats and a handful of other likeminded organizations. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588124694000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588124694000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588124694000"> Wednesday, Apr 29, 2020 · 1:44:54 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser </a> <div class="live-update-content">Downballot, we have an incumbent falling to defeat in a primary, but it is hard to call it an upset. In HD-43, a seat very high on Democratic target lists, incumbent Rep. Todd Smith <a href="https://www.daytondailynews.com/news/local/todd-smith-drops-out-gop-primary-for-ohio-house-seat/yfQ6SjAxziqOjsDxY0FIOL/" target="_blank">actually dropped out</a> shortly after filing, leaving Preble County Commissioner Rodney Creech as the de facto nominee. But in the primary, Creech only holds a 58-42 lead over Smith. The winner takes on Democratic school teacher Amy Cox, who was unopposed for the Democratic nomination. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588124877000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588124877000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588124877000"> Wednesday, Apr 29, 2020 · 1:47:57 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser </a> <div class="live-update-content">Looks like it’ll be a minute or 130 till we find out the Democratic nominee in OH-01: <div class="dk-editor-embed center-block" data-twitter-content='&lt;blockquote class="twitter-tweet"&gt;&lt;p lang="en" dir="ltr"&gt;From &lt;a href="https://twitter.com/VoteHamCoBOE?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw"&gt;@VoteHamCoBOE&lt;/a&gt;: results won’t be in till after midnight. &lt;a href="https://t.co/Zg6njK1Kfu"&gt;pic.twitter.com/Zg6njK1Kfu&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&amp;mdash; Jessie Balmert (@jbalmert) &lt;a href="https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1255299423770480640?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw"&gt;April 29, 2020&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt; '><div class="remove-embed-content">x</div><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">From <a href="https://twitter.com/VoteHamCoBOE?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@VoteHamCoBOE</a>: results wonÃ¢Â€Â™t be in till after midnight. <a href="https://t.co/Zg6njK1Kfu">pic.twitter.com/Zg6njK1Kfu</a>— Jessie Balmert (@jbalmert) <a href="https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1255299423770480640?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 29, 2020</a></blockquote> </div> </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588132136000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588132136000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588132136000"> Wednesday, Apr 29, 2020 · 3:48:56 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser </a> <div class="live-update-content">No, we haven’t gone to bed just yet, but while we (still) wait for Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincy, we do have one dollop of good news. Melissa Ackison, a state Senate candidate last seen <a href="https://www.dispatch.com/news/20200414/ohio-senate-candidate-attacks-dewinersquos-lsquotyrannyrsquo-in-coronavirus-response" target="_blank">re-enacting the Walking Dead</a> in a now-famous photograph for the Columbus Dispatch during the anti-lockdown protests at the Ohio statehouse a few weeks back, got whomped in her primary tonight 62-38 by state Rep. Bill Reineke. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588135498000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588135498000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588135498000"> Wednesday, Apr 29, 2020 · 4:44:58 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser </a> <div class="live-update-content">In doing these liveblogs for this many years, I can’t say one has ever broken me. But...dammit...here we are. It’s nearing 1 AM in the Eastern Time Zone, and there are still five counties yet to report. The two pivotal ones to our primaries to watch are among those five. Ohio, you’re on the clock. If this thing ain’t over in 20 minutes, I’m watching a 29 year-old NHL all-star game on NBCSN. You’ve been warned. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588137478000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588137478000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588137478000"> Wednesday, Apr 29, 2020 · 5:17:58 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser </a> <div class="live-update-content">OH-03 (D): Our collective patience has been rewarded. Franklin County finally reported a few minutes after 1 AM eastern, and we have an unambiguous outcome in the highest-profile race of the night. Despite enthusiastic endorsements from groups like Justice Dems, Morgan Harper has failed to unseat veteran Rep. Joyce Beatty. With all precincts reporting, Beatty holds an insurmountable 68-32 lead over Harper. While additional ballots will certainly come in the mail over the next few days, it will not change the outcome, given Beatty’s lead (which is 23,400 votes). And, with that, we will call it a night. Or an early morning, depending on where you are. If you checked in tonight, we appreciate you! </div> </div> rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) DailyKosElections DKELiveblogs _1941091 Wed, 29 Apr 2020 01:17:02 +0000 2020 Ohio primary election results https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/28/1941085/-2020-Ohio-primary-election-results <div class="dk-editor-embed center-block"> <div class="remove-embed-content">x</div> <a class="iframe_placeholder dk-x-embed" href="#" title="" data-frameborder="1" data-height="100%" data-src="https://elections.ap.org/widgets/content/476bf4106afd8e245aadea0ebc3ad26d" data-width="100%">Embedded Content</a></div> rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) DailyKosElections DKELiveblogs _1941085 Tue, 28 Apr 2020 23:29:17 +0000 Live Coverage: 2020 Ohio primaries https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/28/1941071/-Live-Coverage-2020-Ohio-primaries After an abrupt cancellation, Ohio’s primaries, originally scheduled for March 17, are finally here. Notably, this election was conducted almost entirely by mail and will feature virtually no in-person voting. The majority of results will come in when “polls” close at 7:30 ET, although as long as ballots were postmarked by Monday, they will still count if they are received within 10 days of Election Day. It’s therefore possible we won’t know final results in some races tonight. As returns come in, check out our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/27/1940736/-Ohio-downballot-primary-preview-Democrats-compete-to-take-on-vulnerable-Republican-congressman" target="_blank">preview of tonight’s key contests</a>. Results: <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/04/28/1941085/-" target="_blank">OH</a> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588117389000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588117389000">Tuesday, Apr 28, 2020 · 11:43:09 PM +00:00 · Steve Singiser </a> <div class="live-update-content"> One variable which is highly unclear is when results will be reported to us. As was the case a few weeks ago in Wisconsin, this is kind of a brave new world for all of us. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588118356000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588118356000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588118356000">Tuesday, Apr 28, 2020 · 11:59:16 PM +00:00 · Steve Singiser </a> <div class="live-update-content"> Well...<a href="https://www.ohiosos.gov/media-center/press-releases/2020/2020-04-28/" target="_blank">this clarifies things</a>. Guidance from the Ohio Secretary of State’s office says that each of Ohio’s 88 counties will report all of their results at once. So, we will have an unofficial total by the end of the night. Remember, late mail-in ballots are being accepted as long as they were postmarked by Monday. So there will be some adjustment to the final totals. For what it’s worth, we have already had four smallish counties report their results. None of them are in a competitive Congressional district. If anyone still cares about the Ohio presidential primary, Biden is winning. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588118547000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588118547000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588118547000">Wednesday, Apr 29, 2020 · 12:02:27 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser </a> <div class="live-update-content"> For those who are wondering, there are three counties we will be most intently focused on this evening, and their sheer size makes it likely that it will be a while for results to come in. Look for Hamilton County (Cincinnati/OH-01), Warren County (Cincy Suburbs/OH-01), and Franklin County (Columbus/OH-03). We will also keep one eye on the other incumbents, just to see if anyone is endangered in a surprisingly competitive primary. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588119760000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588119760000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588119760000">Wednesday, Apr 29, 2020 · 12:22:40 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser </a> <div class="live-update-content"> MD-07: Aside from the action in the Buckeye State, there was also a special election in Maryland this evening to replace the late and beloved Rep. Elijah Cummings. And, as was widely presumed, it marks the return to Congress of the man who preceded Cummings in Congress. The Associated Press has declared that Democrat Kweisi Mfume, who served in Congress representing Baltimore between 1987-1996, has defeated Republican Kimberly Klacik by a very comfortable 73-27 margin, with roughly 2/3 of the precincts reporting. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588120052000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588120052000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588120052000">Wednesday, Apr 29, 2020 · 12:27:32 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser </a> <div class="live-update-content"> OH-01 (D): We have our first results in this hotly-contested primary to challenge veteran GOP Rep. Steve Chabot. With suburban Warren County reporting its ballots, Kate Schroder holds a 55-45 lead over Air Force veteran Nikki Foster. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588120109000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588120725000"> <div class="live-update-content"> One thing that might make tonight a bit of a long slog is that over a third of the precincts in the state of Ohio reside in just five counties: <ul> <li>Cuyahoga (Cleveland)</li> <li>Franklin (Columbus)</li> <li>Hamilton (Cincinnati)</li> <li>Montgomery (Dayton)</li> <li>Summit (Akron)</li> </ul> One can imagine that their load of mail-in ballots is substantially heavier. Thus far, the biggest county to report is suburban Cincinnati’s Warren County, which (at 175 counties) is only a bit more than half the size of the smallest of the aforementioned five counties. In other words, patience will likely be required tonight. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588123077000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588123077000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588123077000"> Wednesday, Apr 29, 2020 · 1:17:57 AM +00:00 · David Nir </a> <div class="live-update-content"><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/28/1941091/-Live-Coverage-2020-Ohio-primaries" target="_blank">The liveblog continues here</a>. </div> </div> rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) DailyKosElections DKELiveblogs _1941071 Tue, 28 Apr 2020 23:29:15 +0000 Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/28 https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/28/1940104/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-4-28 Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. Please note: The Live Digest is a 2016 and 2020 Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy. Sign up <a href="http://dailykos.com/electionsdigest" target="_blank">here</a> to receive the Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest in your inbox each weekday. <div><a name="update-1588088969000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588088969000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588088969000">Tuesday, Apr 28, 2020 · 3:49:29 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> NJ-02: The New Jersey Education Association, which the New Jersey Globe describes as the “largest public employee union” in the state, has <a href="https://newjerseyglobe.com/campaigns/njea-backs-amy-kennedy-for-congress/">endorsed mental health advocate Amy Kennedy</a> in the July Democratic primary. Montclair State University professor Brigid Callahan Harrison previously earned the backing of the American Federation of Teachers in the contest to take on GOP Rep. Jeff Van Drew. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588089723000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588089723000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588089723000">Tuesday, Apr 28, 2020 · 4:02:03 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> SC-01: Mount Pleasant Town Councilwoman Kathy Landing is out with her second TV spot ahead of the June GOP primary to face Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham, and the Post & Courier reports that it's <a href="https://www.postandcourier.com/news/republican-kathy-landing-calls-democrat-joe-cunningham-self-promoting-talker-in-campaign-ad/article_64c1a4a6-894b-11ea-b4a5-d73221dda4a4.html">part of the same $125,000 buy</a> she launched a few weeks ago. The <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGU39ZehY70&feature=em-uploademail">narrator argues that</a>, with the economy in trouble, “We need adults in Congress to help President Trump restore stability.” (“Adults” and “Trump” are usually not words that go together outside of Republican campaign ads.) Landing then tells the audience about her background as a financial planner and says that “assessing financial situations, budgeting and planning for an uncertain future are what I do every day.” The ad then takes a quick shot at Cunningham, who is pictured holding an air horn, as the narrator declares, “Congress has enough self-promoting talkers. This is a time for real expertise and real leadership.” Cunningham had <a href="https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/sc-rep-joe-cunningham-blows-air-horn-to-sound-alarm-about-offshore-oil-work/article_aeb4efc2-40f0-11e9-bfe2-4b50821537c2.html">used that device</a> at a subcommittee meeting last year in order to demonstrate how “seismic air gun blasting is an incredibly disruptive process for marine life that depend on sound to communicate and navigate,” including whales. That’s an important issue for a coastal South Carolina district where much of the economy depends on tourism, but Landing’s ad ignores all that and is happy to just make Cunningham look like an unserious attention-seeker. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588091040000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588091040000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588091040000">Tuesday, Apr 28, 2020 · 4:24:00 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> TX-17: Former Rep. Pete Sessions is <a href="https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1254849581839536129">up with a TV spot</a> ahead of the July GOP primary runoff, and as the Texas Tribune’s Patrick Svitek notes, it <a href="https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1254850361854132225">contains footage</a> used during Sessions failed 2018 re-election campaign in the 32nd District 80 miles away. (Both ads show the same B-roll of Sessions talking to voters.) Sadly, for us at least, this partially-recycled commercial does not emphasize Sessions’ fiscal conservatism. Instead, the ad stars Scott Bland, who <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/03/03/1923893/-">took 7% of the vote</a> in the crowded March primary, arguing that Sessions won’t need “on the job training.” Bland also tells the audience that the NRA is backing the former congressman and that Sessions wants “to build the wall where we can.” Last month, Sessions outpaced businesswoman Renee Swann, who has the support of retiring Rep. Bill Flores, 32-19 in the first round of the primary for this reliably red seat. Swann, who has self-funded most of her campaign, ended March with a <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">$131,000 to $93,000 cash-on-hand lead</a>. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588093684000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588093684000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588093684000">Tuesday, Apr 28, 2020 · 5:08:04 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> UT-Gov: On Monday evening, a federal judge <a href="https://www.kuer.org/post/judge-rules-gop-candidate-governor-jan-garbett-can-qualify-ballot-fewer-signatures" title="">lowered the number of valid signatures</a> businesswoman Jan Garbett needs to reach the June GOP primary from 28,000 to 19,040. This ruling applies only to Garbett, who filed a lawsuit arguing that the state had not done enough to make it easier for candidates to collect signatures during the coronavirus pandemic. While the ruling is good news for Garbett, she isn’t guaranteed a spot on the ballot yet. Garbett turned in around 21,000 signatures on the April 13 deadline, so she needs election officials to accept about 90% of them as valid. The state’s director of elections said that his team would finish reviewing Garbett’s petitions <a href="https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2020/04/28/republican-gubernatorial/">no later than May 6</a>. Meanwhile, former state GOP chair Thomas Wright is <a href="https://host2.advertisinganalyticsllc.com/admo/#/viewer/0c673d2f-11f6-45f8-9650-b742b75be97b/">up with a commercial</a> touting his business record. The candidate’s wife declares, “Now more than ever, we need a strong experienced leader, a businessman with years of experience who knows how to lead during times of crisis.” </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588094146000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588094146000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588094146000">Tuesday, Apr 28, 2020 · 5:15:46 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> FL-19: Wealthy physician William Figlesthaler’s <a href="https://host2.advertisinganalyticsllc.com/admo/#/viewer/82f57f31-3035-4ecf-b83c-f098460fed72/">new GOP primary ad</a> touts the candidate, whom the narrator identifies as Dr. Fig, “took his family from poverty to prosperity while building a massive statewide medical operation, saving thousands of lives, and hiring hundreds of employees.” </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588094497000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588094497000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588094497000">Tuesday, Apr 28, 2020 · 5:21:37 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> GA-14: Air Force veteran Clayton Fuller is <a href="https://host2.advertisinganalyticsllc.com/admo/#/viewer/2417ebe9-faca-49be-b0b9-138b8e71145e/">out with a TV spot</a> ahead of the crowded June primary for this safely red open seat. Fuller, who is shown in uniform kissing his wife and children goodbye, tells the audience that “recently I was activated to fulfill the oath I swore to serve our country. The mission this time: Contain the coronavirus.” The candidate continues, “President Trump appointed me to fight terrorism. I’ve served as a prosecutor to make our communities safer. And with lives at stake, it’s important to be a pro-life Christian, not just campaign like one.” </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588094575000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588094575000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588094575000">Tuesday, Apr 28, 2020 · 5:22:55 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> WI-07: EMILY’s List has <a href="https://www.emilyslist.org/news/entry/emilys-list-endorses-tricia-zunker-in-wisconsins-7th-congressional-district">endorsed Tricia Zunker</a> ahead of the May 12 special election. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588094894000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588094894000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588094894000">Tuesday, Apr 28, 2020 · 5:28:14 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> AZ-Sen: The Democratic group Majority Forward is out with what it tells Politico is a new TV spot <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2020/04/28/election-night-ish-in-ohio-787184">running for six figures</a>. The <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ch1WTuv8ea0">commercial argues</a> that, rather than looking out for her constituents during the current crisis, GOP Sen. Martha McSally “repeatedly voted to let big insurance companies deny health coverage for people with pre-existing conditions. The same people most vulnerable to coronavirus.” The narrator continues, “Now, she refuses to support a bill that would provide desperately needed protective equipment for doctors and nurses on the front lines.” </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588095555000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588095555000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588095555000">Tuesday, Apr 28, 2020 · 5:39:15 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> GA-Sen-A: Former Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson is out with a new TV spot ahead of the June Democratic primary, and Politico reports that <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2020/04/28/election-night-ish-in-ohio-787184">she's put at least $50,000</a> behind it. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7oHR2JmsoOk">After arguing</a> that Gov. Brian Kemp, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, and Donald Trump have all behaved irresponsibly during the pandemic, Tomlinson declares, “And while we fight an invisible enemy, David Perdue’s an invisible senator.” The candidate goes on to describe herself as “a public safety director and two-term mayor who led Columbus as one of the best-run cities in America.” </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588101180000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588101180000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588101180000">Tuesday, Apr 28, 2020 · 7:13:00 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> KS-Sen: The super PAC Keep Kansas Great, which supports Rep. Roger Marshall, is <a href="https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1255138389315084291">out with a new spot</a> ahead of the August GOP primary attacking both former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach and Marshall’s adversaries at the Club for Growth. The narrator begins, “Kris Kobach let President Trump down. Kobach demanded Trump give him a taxpayer-funded jet to accept a job.” The commercial then spends a significant amount of time laying into the Club, and if we didn’t know any better, we’d think that the extremist anti-tax group was also a candidate in this race. The Club hasn’t endorsed anyone, but Keep Kansas Great still charges that Kobach is “being bankrolled by an anti-Trump D.C. special interest group.” The narrator continues, “Trump called the Club for Growth ‘pathetic’ and phony,’” and a clip then plays of Trump proclaiming, “We have the Club for Growth, which is … forget ‘em. They’re a fraud! They’re crooked!” The Club famously <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/10/23/1894361/-Morning-Digest-Club-for-Growth-which-spent-millions-to-stop-Trump-takes-on-anti-Trump-GOPer#1">spent millions on ads</a> during the 2016 primaries attacking Trump, but it’s reinvented itself as a fanatically pro-Trump organization over the last few years. However, Keep Kansas Great isn’t the first group this year that’s tried to make the Club’s past transgressions a current issue for Republican primary voters. In the February contest for Wisconsin’s 7th District, a group called Americans 4 Security PAC ran <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/2/17/1919630/-Morning-Digest-GOP-retirement-in-key-seat-boosts-Democratic-chances-of-flipping-Minnesota-s-Senate#16">ads arguing</a> that Club-endorsed state Sen. Tom Tiffany “opposed Donald Trump, and his big money backers spent millions to stop Trump.” However, the argument wasn’t enough to stop Tiffany from decisively winning the nomination. The Congressional Leadership Fund had far more success the following month, though, with its victorious campaign to defend Texas Rep. Kay Granger from the Club’s attacks. The CLF <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/2/19/1920184/-Morning-Digest-GOP-legislator-threatens-an-independent-run-for-VA-governor-if-shenanigans-occur#13">went up with a commercial</a> arguing that the incumbent’s opponents "spent millions attacking President Trump. They lost. America won." Just like Keep Kansas Great’s ad, the CLF spot never actually accused Granger’s opponent, businessman Chris Putnam, of opposing Trump, it simply framed the contest as a battle between the Trump-backed congresswoman and anti-Trump forces and asked the audience, “Whose side are you on?" After several seconds attacking the Club, Keep Kansas Great’s ad goes back to hitting the actual candidate in the race and declares, “Now, Trump is done with Kobach.” This <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/2/18/1919918/-Morning-Digest-Daily-Kos-Elections-presents-our-2020-calendar-of-key-elections-across-the-country#2">doesn’t seem to be true at all</a>, though: While Trump’s aides advisers have reportedly tried to convince him to back Marshall in order to stop Kobach from being nominated, Trump hasn’t taken sides yet or even publicly come out against Kobach. The narrator then predicts, “Kris Kobach will lose again, and the liberal radicals will be back in charge.” </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588101723000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588101723000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588101723000">Tuesday, Apr 28, 2020 · 7:22:03 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> ME-Sen: The GOP group One Nation has launched what <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2020/04/28/election-night-ish-in-ohio-787184">Politico reports</a> is a new $510,000 TV, radio, and digital buy supporting Sen. Susan Collins. The <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPIuBr_aG4s">narrator praises</a> Collins for working to get help to Maine healthcare providers during the pandemic despite what “dark money groups” say. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588102099000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588102099000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588102099000">Tuesday, Apr 28, 2020 · 7:28:19 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> MI-Sen: The environmental groups NRDC Action Votes, LCV Victory Fund, and EDF Action Votes are out with a <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2020/04/28/election-night-ish-in-ohio-787184">joint $1 million TV buy</a> supporting Democratic Sen. Gary Peters. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUk-yq4wtp8">The commercial</a> features a woman named Cathy Wusterbarth telling the audience, “I was diagnosed with cancer and arthritis at the age of 28. When we learned about the PFAS contamination in the water we suspected there was a link.” After decrying that no one did anything about the problem for decades even as others suffered, Wusterbarth says of Peters, “He’s fighting to get these contaminated areas cleaned up. And making sure this never happens again.” </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588102330000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588102330000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588102330000">Tuesday, Apr 28, 2020 · 7:32:10 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> MT-Gov: Businesswoman Whitney Williams is out with a trio of ads for the June Democratic primary (<a href="https://host2.advertisinganalyticsllc.com/admo/#/viewer/dc217e16-8e73-4621-93c0-431aaebafe3f/">here</a>, <a href="https://host2.advertisinganalyticsllc.com/admo/#/viewer/7aedd07c-4421-4491-b3c4-d7e87019611a/">here</a>, and <a href="https://host2.advertisinganalyticsllc.com/admo/#/viewer/4607c1cb-b78b-4732-a809-0908e575f51d/">here</a>) where she argues she can lead Montana to recover from the coronavirus pandemic. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588104525000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588104525000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588104525000">Tuesday, Apr 28, 2020 · 8:08:45 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> KS-02: On Tuesday, EMILY’s List <a href="https://www.emilyslist.org/news/entry/emilys-list-endorses-michelle-de-la-isla-in-kansas-2nd-congressional-distri">endorsed Topeka Mayor Michelle De La Isla</a> in the contest to take on freshman GOP Rep. Steve Watkins. Kansas’ 2nd District <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">backed Trump 56-37</a>, but Watkins’ ongoing primary and legal issues could give De La Isla, who doesn’t have any serious Democratic primary opposition in August, an opening. Watkins spent the end of the summer<a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/8/23/1880951/-Kansas-Republican-refuses-to-resign-as-rumors-swirl-about-unrevealed-scandal"> dogged by intense speculation</a> that he'd resign from office due to an unspecified (and still unrevealed) scandal. Soon thereafter, he drew<a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/9/4/1883372/-Kansas-state-treasurer-launches-GOP-primary-bid-against-congressman-dogged-by-scandal-rumors"> a serious challenge</a> in the GOP primary from state Treasurer Jake LaTurner, who argued that Watkins was such a weak candidate that he’d put this seat into play. LaTurner didn’t drop any obvious clues about what the rumors dogging the congressman were, though, and instead pointed to Watkins’ <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=833271">narrow 48-47 win</a> in the 2018 general election. However, while LaTurner decisively outraised Watkins during his opening months on the campaign trail, the treasurer seems to have lost steam since then. Watkins <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">took in $122,000</a> during the first quarter of 2020, which, while lousy for an incumbent, was well ahead of the $43,000 that LaTurner brought in. LaTurner, who entered the race with some leftover money from his aborted Senate bid, still ended March with a $572,000 to $438,000 cash-on-hand lead, though. De La Isla raised $338,000 during her first quarter, which was more than twice as much as the two Republicans’ combined haul, and she had $267,000 on-hand. Watkins may have more immediate worries than his August primary, though. The Shawnee County Sheriff’s Office has been <a href="https://www.wibw.com/content/news/Shawnee-Co-DA-reviewing-Watkins-voter-registration-case--569987621.html">investigating allegations</a> that Watkins committed voter fraud last year, and District Attorney Mike Kagay announced Monday that he’d received the findings. It will be up to Kagay to decide whether or not to pursue charges, though he may also ask for additional information from investigators. As we’ve <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/6/1925117/-Ne-er-do-well-congressman-s-dad-under-investigation-for-illegal-donations-to-son-s-campaign">written before</a>, Watkins gave as his address on his voter registration form<a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/12/5/1903547/-Morning-Digest-Georgia-governor-snubs-Trump-s-preference-in-appointing-new-GOP-senator#7"> the location of a UPS store</a> in Topeka and then proceeded to cast a ballot in November of last year as though he lived there—a move that could expose him to felony voter fraud charges. Watkins’ team insisted in December that it was all just an "inadvertent" error, and the congressman soon filled out paperwork<a href="https://www.wibw.com/content/news/Steve-Watkins-will-need-to-correct-his-voter-registration-for-the-second-time--566199261.html"> listing his address as a Topeka apartment complex</a>. Further muddying the waters, though, Watkins didn’t actually include an apartment number in his paperwork, which is a problem since the complex is split between two different state Senate districts. Watkins isn’t the only member of his family being probed. In March, Politico reported that the FEC was<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/06/steve-watkins-fec-probe-122525"> investigating his father</a>, Steve Watkins Sr., for allegedly making so-called “straw” donations to his son’s 2018 campaign. A spokesperson for the younger Watkins<a href="https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article240956161.html"> said that</a> neither the congressman “nor his campaign committee are under FEC investigation.” </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588106146000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588106146000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588106146000">Tuesday, Apr 28, 2020 · 8:35:46 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> NV-03: Former state Treasurer Dan Schwartz <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/16/1937612/-Morning-Digest-Yet-another-poll-finds-Democrats-positioned-to-flip-GOP-held-Arizona-Senate-seat#13">launched a spot earlier this month</a> that focused on the three times his June GOP primary opponent, former wrestler Dan Rodimer, has been accused of assault, and Rodimer is now <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVlMk-j8zCM">firing back with his own ad</a>. The ad begins with a shot of a CGI wrestling arena as the announcer proclaims, “Starting from San Francisco, the gun-grabbing, tax-hiking, amnesty-loving liberal, Daaannnn Schwartz.” The crowd loudly boos Schwartz, but they respond much more favorably to “Conservative Big Dan Rodimer!” Rodimer himself then appears in a suit in a very non-CGI outdoors and asks the audience, “The wrestling thing again? Let’s cut the hype.” (Dude, this is your ad!) Rodimer continues, “I’m just a small businessman, a family man, living in the suburbs. But I see what the liberals do to President Trump. And he needs backup.” Rodimer concludes, “Liberals like Dan Schwartz will keep attacking, but I’m always ready!” The spot ends with Rodimer’s children rushing the candidate, who is revealed to be wearing shorts and wrestling boots. Somewhat surprisingly, though, Rodimer doesn’t actually get around to mentioning freshman Rep. Susie Lee, the Democratic incumbent he and Schwartz are competing to face. This seat, which includes the southern Las Vegas suburbs, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">narrowly backed both Obama and Trump</a>, but neither Republican has raised much money from donors. Rodimer, who has the support of House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">outraised Schwartz $163,000 to $43,000</a> during the first quarter, but Schwartz threw in additional $100,000 of his own money; Schwartz, who has self-funded most of his campaign, ended March with a $424,000 to $323,000 cash-on-hand lead. Lee took in $509,000 during this time and had $1.89 million in the bank. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588107844000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588107844000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588107844000">Tuesday, Apr 28, 2020 · 9:04:04 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> PR-Gov: While Puerto Rico’s Democratic presidential primary has been <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/6/1934586/-Morning-Digest-California-s-property-tax-revolt-may-finally-get-rolled-back-with-new-ballot-measure#5">indefinitely postponed</a>, it’s still hosting <a href="https://pasquines.us/2020/04/08/wanda-vazquez-candidacy-a-wildcard-in-puerto-rico-gubernatorial-race/">competitive primaries for governor on June 7</a> for the pro-statehood New Progressive Party (NPP) and pro-commonwealth Popular Democratic Party (PDP). The race to lead the NPP pits incumbent Wanda Vázquez, who <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/8/8/1872197/-Morning-Digest-Puerto-Rico-Supreme-Court-overturns-swearing-in-for-acting-governor-after-mere-days">became governor last summer</a> after Ricardo Rosselló resigned in disgrace, against former Resident Commissioner Pedro Pierluisi, who acted as governor in August until the Supreme Court of Puerto Rico ruled that Vázquez was actually the one who was next-in-line for the post. The coronavirus has <a href="https://pasquines.us/2020/04/08/wanda-vazquez-candidacy-a-wildcard-in-puerto-rico-gubernatorial-race/">largely put this campaign on hold</a>, but Pierluisi has argued that Vázquez hasn’t been fixing mistakes made by her administration during the crisis. The PDP, which Pasquines writes is holding its first-ever gubernatorial primary, has a duel between San Juan Mayor Carmen Yulín Cruz and Puerto Rico Senate Minority Leader Eduardo Bhatia. So far, both candidates have largely focused on criticizing NPP rather than one another. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588111159000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588111159000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588111159000">Tuesday, Apr 28, 2020 · 9:59:19 PM +00:00 · David Nir </a> <div class="live-update-content"> Election Changes Please bookmark our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/1/14/1855760/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-primary-calendar">statewide 2020 primary calendar</a> and our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/2/17/1917521/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-calendar-of-key-elections-across-the-country">calendar of key downballot races</a>, both of which we're updating continually as changes are finalized. Louisiana: Both chambers of Louisiana's Republican-run legislature <a href="https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/coronavirus/article_5d1b0542-895c-11ea-b75e-6bba365dcb80.html">have approved modest expansions to mail voting</a> for the state's July 11 primaries and Aug. 15 runoffs for local elections. The measure now goes to Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards, who has said he supports the legislation. The bill allows <a href="https://www.sos.la.gov/OurOffice/PublishedDocuments/Revised%20Emergency%20Election%20Plan%20for%20PPP%20and%20Mun%20General%20Rev.%204-20.pdf#page=8">the following groups of people</a> to request absentee ballots: <ul> <li>those at "higher risk of severe illness from COVID-19 due to serious underlying medical conditions";</li> <li>those under a "a medically necessary quarantine or isolation order as a result of COVID-19";</li> <li>those "advised by a health care provider to self-quarantine due to COVID-19 concerns";</li> <li>those "experiencing symptoms of COVID-19 and seeking a medical diagnosis"; and</li> <li>those "caring for an identified individual who is subject to a medically necessary quarantine." </li> </ul> Voters who may be asymptomatic or who are concerned about contracting or spreading the coronavirus are not permitted to ask for an absentee ballot. Lawmakers voted on the bill remotely, <a href="https://twitter.com/MelindaDeslatte/status/1253021040982327296" title="">via ballots they received and returned by email</a>. Massachusetts: A spokesperson for Democratic Secretary of State Bill Galvin says that if lawmakers want to conduct the state's Sept. 1 primaries by mail, <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/massachusetts-playbook/2020/04/28/clock-is-ticking-on-vote-by-mail-walsh-says-may-4-deadline-too-soon-to-reopen-somerville-gets-strict-on-masks-489049">they will need to pass a bill by June 2</a>, which is the deadline by which candidates must file with state officials and when the secretary's office begins preparations for printing ballots. Galvin <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/23/1939526/-Morning-Digest-Supreme-Court-elections-in-these-four-states-are-key-for-stopping-GOP-gerrymandering#5" title="">previously said</a> he would release his own proposal for an all-mail primary in May. At least one vote-by-mail bill <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/16/1937612/-Morning-Digest-Yet-another-poll-finds-Democrats-positioned-to-flip-GOP-held-Arizona-Senate-seat#2">is already pending</a> before the legislature. Pennsylvania: Voting rights advocates <a href="https://www.pubintlaw.org/cases-and-projects/groups-representing-diverse-voters-file-suit-asking-the-pennsylvania-supreme-court-to-extend-the-deadline-for-mail-in-ballots-due-to-covid-19/" title="">have filed a second lawsuit</a> asking that absentee ballots be counted in Pennsylvania's June 2 primaries and November general election, so long as they are postmarked by Election Day and received within seven days. Under current law, ballots must be received by Election Day. <a href="https://www.pubintlaw.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/20.04.27-mail-in-ballot-Petition-for-Review-pubintlaw.pdf">The suit</a> was filed directly with the state Supreme Court. <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/23/1939526/-Morning-Digest-Supreme-Court-elections-in-these-four-states-are-key-for-stopping-GOP-gerrymandering#8">A separate case filed last week</a> by different plaintiffs was brought in an intermediate appellate court; it also seeks an extension to the absentee receipt deadline as well as several other measures that would make mail voting easier. Virginia: The ACLU <a href="https://acluva.org/en/press-releases/aclu-reaches-agreement-federal-lawsuit-remove-virginia-witness-requirement-during">has reached a settlement</a> with the state of Virginia that will relax the requirement that voters have someone witness their absentee ballots for the state's June 23 primaries. The agreement specifies that the requirement may not be enforced against voters "who believe they may not safely have a witness present while completing their ballot." </div> </div> rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) DailyKosElections DKELiveDigests _1940104 Tue, 28 Apr 2020 13:00:05 +0000 Morning Digest: After abrupt postponement of March's election, Ohio's primary is finally here https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/28/1940881/-Morning-Digest-After-abrupt-postponement-of-March-s-election-Ohio-s-primary-is-finally-here The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar. <h4>Leading Off</h4> <a href="#1" name="1">●</a> Primary Night: The Buckeye stops here: Ohio goes to the polls Tuesday for its presidential and downballot primaries … finally. The election was originally scheduled for March 17, but GOP Gov. Mike DeWine, citing the coronavirus pandemic, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/17/1928090/-Morning-Digest-Ohio-cancels-in-person-voting-despite-judge-denying-request-to-delay-Tuesday-primary">haphazardly canceled it</a> hours before it was to begin. DeWine eventually signed a bill into law that <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/30/1932459/-Morning-Digest-Trump-declares-war-on-GOP-congressman-who-held-up-coronavirus-bill#8" title="">moved the election to April 28</a> and all but eliminated in-person voting. We've put together our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/27/1940736/-Ohio-downballot-primary-preview-Democrats-compete-to-take-on-vulnerable-Republican-congressman">preview of the downballot contests</a> to watch. The biggest race will be the Democratic contest to take on GOP Rep. Steve Chabot in the 1st Congressional District, a Cincinnati-area seat that <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections?detail=hide">Donald Trump carried 51-45</a>. We'll also be watching the safely blue 3rd District in Columbus, where Democratic Rep. Joyce Beatty faces a challenge from former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau advisor Morgan Harper. rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) AimeeWinderNewton AZ-Sen BenMcAdams BlakeMoore BobStevenson BurgessOwens CarlosGimenez ChrisBiesinger chriscox ChrisPeterson CindyThompson ClaireChase CO-Sen DailyKosElections DavidLeavitt DKEMorningDigest Elections FL-03 FL-05 FL-07 FL-13 FL-15 FL-16 FL-18 FL-19 FL-26 FL-27 Florida GregHughes jasonchristensen JayMcfarland JeffBurningham JohnSwallow JonHuntsman KathleenAnderson KatieWitt KerryGibson KimColeman MarkKelly MarkShepherd MichelleFerrigno NM-02 Ohio PamKeith SpencerCox TinaCannon UT-01 UT-04 Ut-AG UT-Gov Utah YvetteHerrell _1940881 Tue, 28 Apr 2020 12:00:12 +0000 Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/27 https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/27/1940103/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-4-27 Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. Please note: The Live Digest is a 2016 and 2020 Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy. Sign up <a href="http://dailykos.com/electionsdigest" target="_blank">here</a> to receive the Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest in your inbox each weekday. <div><a name="update-1588000044000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588000044000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588000044000">Monday, Apr 27, 2020 · 3:07:24 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> Primary Night: The Buckeye stops here: Ohio goes to the polls Tuesday for its presidential and downballot primaries … finally. The election was originally scheduled for March 17, but GOP Gov. Mike DeWine, citing the coronavirus pandemic, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/17/1928090/-Morning-Digest-Ohio-cancels-in-person-voting-despite-judge-denying-request-to-delay-Tuesday-primary">haphazardly canceled it</a> hours before it was to begin. DeWine eventually signed a bill that <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/30/1932459/-Morning-Digest-Trump-declares-war-on-GOP-congressman-who-held-up-coronavirus-bill#8">moved the election to April 28</a> and all but eliminated in-person voting. We’ve put together our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/27/1940736/-Ohio-downballot-primary-preview-Democrats-compete-to-take-on-vulnerable-Republican-congressman">preview of the downballot contests</a> to watch. The biggest race will be the Democratic contest to take on GOP Rep. Steve Chabot in the 1st Congressional District, a Cincinnati-area seat that <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections?detail=hide">Donald Trump carried 51-45</a>. We’ll also be watching the safely blue 3rd District in Columbus, where Democratic Rep. Joyce Beatty faces a challenge from former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau advisor Morgan Harper. Our live coverage will begin at 7:30 PM ET at <a href="https://elections.dailykos.com/">Daily Kos Elections</a>. You can also <a href="https://twitter.com/DKElections">follow us on Twitter</a> for blow-by-blow updates. And you’ll want to bookmark our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/6/4/1855760/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-primary-calendar">primary calendar</a>, which includes the dates of the presidential and downballot primaries in all 50 states, as well as our separate calendar <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/2/17/1917521/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-calendar-of-key-elections-across-the-country">tracking key contests further down the ballot</a> taking place nationwide this year. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588000622000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588000622000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588000622000">Monday, Apr 27, 2020 · 3:17:02 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> Utah: Both parties held their conventions on Saturday as virtual events, and the lineup for Utah’s June 30 primaries is now set. As we’ve written before, Utah allows candidates to reach the primary ballot either by turning in the requisite number of signatures or by competing at their party conventions, though contenders had the option to try both methods. Any candidate who handed in enough petitions was guaranteed a spot in the primary no matter how well or poorly they did at their convention on Saturday. Both Republicans and Democrats <a href="https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/4/21/21229824/utah-state-party-conventions-virtual-republican-democrat">used ranked-choice ballots</a> at this year's conventions in contests with more than two candidates. If one contender took more than 60% of the delegate vote, they would be the only candidate to advance to the primary ballot. If, however, no one hit this threshold, then the two competitors left standing would make it to the primary. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588002850000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588002850000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588002850000">Monday, Apr 27, 2020 · 3:54:10 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> UT-Gov: The GOP field to succeed retiring Republican Gov. Gary Herbert <a href="https://www.fox13now.com/news/coronavirus/local-coronavirus-news/cox-hughes-advance-to-gop-primary-election-for-governor-after-online-only-convention">went from seven candidates to just four</a> after Saturday’s convention. While Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox had already turned in enough signatures to advance to the primary, he still took the top spot at the party gathering by winning 53% of the delegates. Former state House Speaker Greg Hughes, who was only pursuing the convention route, grabbed the second spot with 43%. Saturday was game over, though, for wealthy businessman Jeff Burningham, Salt Lake County Council chair Aimee Winder Newton, and perennial candidate Jason Christensen. Former Ambassador to Russia Jon Huntsman, who preceded Herbert as governor, and former state party chair Thomas Wright each had already earned a spot on the the primary ballot by turning in enough signatures. Early polls show Huntsman and Cox, who has Herbert’s support, far ahead of the other candidates, but that could change now that the field has been reduced to four contenders. Cox, however, does begin the contest with a big financial advantage: The lieutenant governor led Huntsman in cash-on-hand <a href="https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2020/04/21/gop-candidates-utah/">$703,000 to $336,000</a> on April 15, while Wright and Hughes had $222,000 and $164,000 to spend, respectively. The Democrats, by contrast, avoided a primary altogether. All six of Team Blue’s candidates ended up pursuing only the convention route, and University of Utah law professor Chris Peterson <a href="https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2020/04/25/democratic-candidate/">won the event with 88% of the vote</a>. Democrats haven’t won a statewide race in Utah since Jan Graham was re-elected as attorney general <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1REYGxQTXblXMHmWuyRiYbbaRlhezrFmMfyNJQwGioYU/edit#gid=711118416">back in 1996</a>, and we <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kHpGnR2VSAie2HYcF4R0-hv2Cc0EpdQ8Kkck51Hh2lk/edit#gid=411216535">rate the gubernatorial contest as Safe Republican</a>. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588004082000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588004082000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588004082000">Monday, Apr 27, 2020 · 4:14:42 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> UT-01: The Republican field to succeed retiring Rep. Rob Bishop, who is running for lieutenant governor on former state GOP chair Thomas Wright’s ticket, was <a href="https://www.fox13now.com/news/coronavirus/local-coronavirus-news/cox-hughes-advance-to-gop-primary-election-for-governor-after-online-only-convention">dramatically cut from 12 to four</a> after Saturday’s convention. This seat, which includes Ogden and northern Utah, is safely red turf, and whoever emerges with the GOP nod on June 30 should have no trouble holding it. Former Commissioner of Agriculture Kerry Gibson took first place at the convention with 53%, while former U.S. Foreign Service officer Blake Moore grabbed second with 40%. Two other contenders, Davis County Commissioner Bob Stevenson and Kaysville Mayor Katie Witt, had already made the primary ballot by turning in signatures. It’s game over, though, for Morgan County Councilor Tina Cannon, Clearfield Mayor Mark Shepherd, and six other contenders. There’s no obvious frontrunner here, and none of the candidates had a large amount of money to spend on April 5. (Because the party convention came so close to the April 15 quarterly reporting deadline, Utah congressional candidates’ reports cover the period of Jan. 1 through April 5.) Gibson led Moore in cash-on-hand <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">$102,000 to $84,000</a>, while Stevenson had $65,000 in the bank. Witt, though, was far behind with just $9,000 to spend. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588006402000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588006402000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588006402000">Monday, Apr 27, 2020 · 4:53:22 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> UT-04: The GOP field to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams was reduced from seven to four at the weekend’s convention. State Rep. Kim Coleman secured a spot in the primary by <a href="https://www.fox13now.com/news/coronavirus/local-coronavirus-news/cox-hughes-advance-to-gop-primary-election-for-governor-after-online-only-convention">taking 54% of the delegates</a>, while former NFL player Burgess Owens, who had already successfully petitioned his way onto the ballot, took 45%. Coleman and Owens will also face former radio host Jay Mcfarland and Trent Christensen, who served as a regional finance director for Mitt Romney's 2012 presidential campaign, on June 30. However, it’s game over for party activist Kathleen Anderson, nurse practitioner Chris Biesinger, and businesswoman Cindy Thompson. This suburban Salt Lake City seat is likely to be a top GOP target, but none of the Republicans had much money on April 5. Coleman led Owens <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">$115,000 to $93,000</a> in cash-on-hand, while Mcfarland had $33,000. Christensen, who only entered the race in mid-March, had a mere $4,000 in the bank, though he may have the connections to haul in more. McAdams, who has no intra-party opposition, had a hefty $2.2 million to spend. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588007090000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588007090000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588007090000">Monday, Apr 27, 2020 · 5:04:50 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> UT-AG: GOP incumbent Sean Reyes, who <a href="https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2020/04/25/utah-atty-gen-sean-reyes/">picked up an endorsement from Donald Trump</a> on Thursday evening, will face Utah County Attorney David Leavitt in the June 30 primary. Reyes <a href="https://www.fox13now.com/news/coronavirus/local-coronavirus-news/cox-hughes-advance-to-gop-primary-election-for-governor-after-online-only-convention">outpaced Leavitt 56-42 at Saturday’s convention</a> after the third candidate, former Attorney General John Swallow, was eliminated from contention in the first round of balloting. The Democrats are fielding defense attorney Greg Skordas, who <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=67803">lost the 2004 general election 68-28</a>. Leavitt, who is the the brother of former Gov. Mike Leavitt, <a href="https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/03/13/utah-countys-top/">has pitched himself as a reformer</a> and focused his campaign on lowering the state's incarceration rate. Leavitt has also argued that Reyes is "shameless" for <a href="https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2020/04/18/utah-attorney-generals/">keeping large donations</a> from an energy company whose leaders were convicted of fraud in federal court. Reyes, who is <a href="https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2020/04/25/utah-atty-gen-sean-reyes/">running as an ardent Trump ally</a>, held a <a href="https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2020/04/21/big-donors-shower-utah/">$128,000 to $23,000 cash-on-hand lead</a> in mid-April. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588012218000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588012218000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588012218000">Monday, Apr 27, 2020 · 6:30:18 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> CO-Sen: Democratic Secretary of State Jena Griswold announced Friday <a href="https://www.coloradopolitics.com/2020-election/colorado-secretary-of-state-appeals-decision-adding-democrat-to-us-senate-primary-ballot/article_defeacfc-8719-11ea-be39-0fdb426beced.html">that she would appeal a state judge’s decision</a> to place businesswoman Michelle Ferrigno Warren on the June Democratic primary ballot. Judge Christopher Baumann <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/23/1939526/-Morning-Digest-Supreme-Court-elections-in-these-four-states-are-key-for-stopping-GOP-gerrymandering#13">wrote that</a>, while Ferrigno Warren had only submitted about half of the 10,500 petitions needed, she "had to collect petition signatures in the shadow of a global pandemic and looming public health emergency." Baumann <a href="https://durangoherald.com/articles/322191-us-senate-candidate-with-half-of-necessary-signatures-to-appear-on-primary-ballot">also said</a> that the candidate's ability to collect about 5,400 petitions "suggests Ms. Ferrigno Warren has a 'significant modicum' of support for her candidacy." Griswold’s team, though, <a href="https://www.coloradopolitics.com/2020-election/colorado-secretary-of-state-appeals-decision-adding-democrat-to-us-senate-primary-ballot/article_defeacfc-8719-11ea-be39-0fdb426beced.html">argued that the decision was unfair</a> to the contenders who had met the requirements as well as to candidates who had fallen short but hadn’t sued to get on the ballot. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588013427000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588013427000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588013427000">Monday, Apr 27, 2020 · 6:50:27 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf </a> <div class="live-update-content"> AZ-Sen: Democrat Mark Kelly <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2020/04/27/states-hustle-to-prepare-for-mail-voting-787162">has debuted two new TV ads</a> that showcase the candidate talking directly to viewers. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4OI-xMCBLhA">The first spot</a> highlights his background as a former Navy pilot and touts his political independence. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyZnXJ55jso">The second one</a> focuses on the coronavirus pandemic and the need to provide healthcare workers with the resources they require and to ensure everyone can access life-saving care without going bankrupt. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588014162000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588014162000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588014162000">Monday, Apr 27, 2020 · 7:02:42 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf </a> <div class="live-update-content"> NM-02: Oil businesswoman Claire Chase <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jc1Ysfbh0SE&feature=youtu.be">has launched</a> a Republican primary ad accusing 2018 GOP nominee Yvette Herrell of having "undermined Trump's campaign" and breaking a promise not to raise taxes. The spot repeatedly labels Chase as the "pro-Trump" conservative instead. Meanwhile, Herrell <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jDQVVNnums">has launched a TV spot</a> of her own attacking Chase over the latter's old anti-Trump Facebook posts. As a cutout of Chase appears on screen, speech bubbles pop up with posts such as "(Donald Trump)'s an a**hole unworthy of the office... of the President." Lastly, Herrell <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9fWLs4MvhSY">is airing another spot</a> that features Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan, who previously led the House's far-right Freedom Caucus, praising her candidacy. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588027071000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588027071000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588027071000">Monday, Apr 27, 2020 · 10:37:51 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> Florida: Filing closed Friday for congressional candidates <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/6/4/1855760/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-primary-calendar">running in Florida’s Aug. 18 primaries</a>, and the state <a href="https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/candidates/Index.asp">has a list of contenders available here</a>. The deadline for candidates for the state legislature is not until June 19, even though the primary is the same date. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588027091000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588027091000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588027091000">Monday, Apr 27, 2020 · 10:38:11 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> FL-03: Far-right Rep. Ted Yoho <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/12/10/1904738/-Republican-who-once-called-for-bringing-back-property-requirements-to-vote-will-retire-from-House">is retiring</a>, and 10 fellow Republicans are running to succeed him. This north-central Florida seat, which <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16GoSYgRx5Mqfyfd355FMDRtr13tOAXFDOT94d9Dzwt0/edit#gid=0">includes Gainesville and Ocala</a>, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">backed Donald Trump 56-40</a>, and the GOP nominee should have no trouble holding it. Physician James St. George, who has self-funded about half of his campaign, led the field <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup" title="">with $336,000 in the bank</a> on March 31. Just behind was another self-funder, 2018 candidate Judson Sapp, who had $310,000 available. Sapp <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=833748">lost to Yoho 76-24</a> last cycle in a campaign that attracted very little attention, but this time, Sapp has the <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/12/16/1905826/-Morning-Digest-Recount-confirms-Democrats-will-control-Virginia-s-state-House-55-45-after-2019#4">support of neighboring Rep. John Rutherford</a>. Another candidate to watch is Kat Cammack, who served as Yoho’s campaign manager during his upset 2012 win and later worked in his congressional office. Cammack ended March with $166,000 in the bank, which was a little more than the $137,000 that former Gainesville City Commissioner Todd Chase had available. Two other contenders, businessman Ryan Chamberlin and Clay County Commissioner Gavin Rollins, had $97,000 on-hand, while none of the other candidates had more than $25,000 to spend. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588027112000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588027112000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588027112000">Monday, Apr 27, 2020 · 10:38:32 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> FL-05: While Democratic Rep. Al Lawson’s weak fundraising early last year <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/4/16/1850539/-Morning-Digest-Check-out-our-maps-and-extensive-stats-on-every-congressional-seat-s-demographics#12">had us wondering if he’d retire</a>, the two-term congressman filed to run again. Lawson doesn’t face any serious intra-party opposition for this safely blue seat in the northern part of the state. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588027134000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588027134000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588027134000">Monday, Apr 27, 2020 · 10:38:54 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> FL-07: Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy is defending a seat in the <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16GoSYgRx5Mqfyfd355FMDRtr13tOAXFDOT94d9Dzwt0/edit#gid=0">northern Orlando suburbs</a> that <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">backed Hillary Clinton 51-44</a> four years after Barack Obama won it by an extremely narrow margin, and it doesn’t look like she’ll be a major GOP target this year. While a number of Republicans launched bids here, the only two who ended up filing were physician Leo Valentin and mortgage broker Richard Goble. Valentin, who has self-funded a portion of his campaign, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">had $276,000 to spend</a> at the end of March, while Goble had <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00723346/1398667/">only $13,000 on-hand</a>. Murphy, who <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=833182">turned back a touted opponent 58-42</a> last cycle, had $1.32 million in the bank. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588027154000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588027154000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588027154000">Monday, Apr 27, 2020 · 10:39:14 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> FL-13: Democratic Rep. Charlie Crist, who served as Florida’s Republican governor from 2007 to 2011, is seeking a third term in a <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16GoSYgRx5Mqfyfd355FMDRtr13tOAXFDOT94d9Dzwt0/edit#gid=0">St. Petersburg seat</a> that <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">moved from 55-44 Obama to 50-46 Clinton</a>. Crist had a <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">hefty $2.94 million in the bank</a> at the end of March, and it remains to be seen if national Republicans will target his seat after ignoring it last cycle. Five Republicans filed to challenge Crist, and attorney Amanda Makki looks like the frontrunner. Makki, who has the support of House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">ended March with $613,000 on-hand</a>, while Air Force veteran Anna Paulina Luna was a distant second with $147,000 in the bank. 2018 nominee George Buck, who <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=833188">lost to Crist 58-42 last time</a>, had just $59,000 available; the NRCC <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/12/5/1903547/-Morning-Digest-Georgia-governor-snubs-Trump-s-preference-in-appointing-new-GOP-senator#4">also cut ties with Buck last year</a> after he sent out a fundraising email calling for Minnesota Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar to be hanged for "treason." The other two Republicans had less than $7,000 to spend. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588027173000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588027173000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588027173000">Monday, Apr 27, 2020 · 10:39:33 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> FL-15: Freshman GOP Rep. Ross Spano is <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/2/11/1918486/-Florida-Bar-investigating-questionable-loans-to-Republican-congressman-already-being-probed-by-feds">under federal investigation</a> for allegedly violating campaign finance laws during his successful 2018 bid, and he faces notable primary and general opposition. This seat, which <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16GoSYgRx5Mqfyfd355FMDRtr13tOAXFDOT94d9Dzwt0/edit#gid=0">includes Lakeland and the exurbs of Tampa and Orlando</a>, went from <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">52-47 Romney to 53-43 Trump</a>, but Spano won it by a <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=833190">modest 53-47</a> before his scandal came out. Lakeland City Commissioner Scott Franklin announced last month that he’d challenge Spano for the GOP nod, and he quickly <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">raised $107,000</a> and self-funded an additional $160,000. Spano took in $229,000 during this time, but he held only a $293,000 to $266,000 cash-on-hand lead over Franklin at the end of March. Three Democrats are also competing here. State Rep. Adam Hattersley ended last month with a $231,000 to $90,000 cash-on-hand lead over Alan Cohn, a former local TV news anchor who lost a 2014 primary for a previous version of this seat. The third candidate, Iraq War veteran Jesse Philippe, has <a href="https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00708222/?cycle=2020" title="">not reported raising any money yet</a>. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588027196000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588027196000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588027196000">Monday, Apr 27, 2020 · 10:39:56 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> FL-16: GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan turned back a credible Democratic foe <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/CandidateDetail.html?CandidateID=97859">55-45 last cycle</a>, and he faces another expensive race. State Rep. Margaret Good, who won her seat in a 2018 special by <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/7/23/1873652/-Morning-Digest-Puerto-Rico-governor-won-t-run-again-but-refuses-to-resign-amid-scandal-and-protests#5">defeating the congressman’s son</a>, faces no opposition in the Democratic primary. Good has been a strong fundraiser, though the wealthy and well-connected Buchanan ended March with a <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">$1.12 million to $737,000 cash-on-hand lead</a>. This <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16GoSYgRx5Mqfyfd355FMDRtr13tOAXFDOT94d9Dzwt0/edit#gid=0">Sarasota-area seat</a> went from <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">54-45 Romney to 54-43 Trump</a>. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588027214000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588027214000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588027214000">Monday, Apr 27, 2020 · 10:40:14 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> FL-18: GOP Rep. Brian Mast <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=833193">won re-election 54-46</a> against a well-funded opponent, and Democrats don’t seem to be making a play for this seat this time. Mast ended March with a huge <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">$1.52 million to $98,000</a> cash-on-hand lead over Oz Vazquez, a former state deputy solicitor general. Pam Keith, who <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=832814">lost the 2018 primary 60-40</a>, also recently entered the Democratic primary. This seat, <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16GoSYgRx5Mqfyfd355FMDRtr13tOAXFDOT94d9Dzwt0/edit#gid=0">which includes</a> the Palm Beach area and the Treasure Coast to the north, moved <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">from 51-48 Romney to 53-44 Trump</a>. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588027233000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588027233000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588027233000">Monday, Apr 27, 2020 · 10:40:33 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> FL-19: GOP Rep. Francis Rooney is retiring from this safely red district <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16GoSYgRx5Mqfyfd355FMDRtr13tOAXFDOT94d9Dzwt0/edit#gid=0">in the Cape Coral and Fort Myers area</a> after only two terms, which means that we have our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/10/19/1893663/-Florida-Republican-retires-one-day-after-he-refused-to-rule-out-supporting-impeachment-inquiry">fourth open seat contest</a> here in just 8 years. Ten Republicans are running here, and it’s already turning into an expensive fight. Wealthy businessman Casey Askar, who only entered the race last month, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">quickly raised $506,000</a> and self-funded $3 million, which left him with a massive $3.48 million war chest. Urologist William Figlesthaler, who has also been doing some heavy self-funding, had a significant $1 million to spend as well. Three state representatives are also in. Dane Eagle, who serves as majority leader, held a $334,000 to $221,000 cash-on-hand lead over Byron Donalds, while Heather Fitzenhagen was far behind with $90,000. Fort Myers Mayor Randy Henderson and former Minnesota state Rep. Dan Severson had $69,000 and $62,000 to spend, respectively, while the rest of the field was even further behind. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588027260000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588027260000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588027260000">Monday, Apr 27, 2020 · 10:41:00 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> FL-26: Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=833201">won this district 51-49</a> in a very expensive 2018 race, and the new incumbent will be a top GOP target this cycle. This seat, which includes southwestern Miami area and the Florida Keys, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">went from 55-44 Obama to 57-41 Clinton</a>, but Republicans <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/1/24/1913608/-Morning-Digest-Anti-tax-hardliners-spend-big-to-beat-Texas-only-GOP-congresswoman-in-primary#13">still do well downballot here</a>. National Republicans, including Donald Trump, are supporting Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Giménez, and he starts with a strong geographic base. <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18adZpIghSQQTZLrUNzEdn78ng7mnk2l4-h6IYPsv34I/edit?ts=5ca11736#gid=1349641426">About 90% of this seat</a> is located in Miami-Dade County (the balance is in neighboring Monroe County), and Giménez has <a href="https://www.rollcall.com/2020/04/21/directing-florida-countys-coronavirus-response-puts-spotlight-on-house-candidate/">consistently been in the news during the coronavirus pandemic</a>. Mucarsel-Powell, though, ended March with a strong <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">$2.2 million to $405,000 cash-on-hand edge</a> over Giménez, who entered the race in late January. The only other Republican, firefighter Omar Blanco, had just $59,000 in the bank. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1588027283000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588027283000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588027283000">Monday, Apr 27, 2020 · 10:41:23 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> FL-27: Democrat Donna Shalala won an open seat race last cycle <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=832766">52-46</a> against former Spanish-language TV journalist Maria Elvira Salazar, and the Republican is back for a rematch. This seat, which includes the southern Miami area and Coral Gables, went from <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections" title="">53-46 Obama all the way to 59-39 Clinton</a>, though this is another district where the GOP does better downballot. Shalala ended March with a <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup" title="">$1.45 million to $895,000 cash-on-hand lead</a>. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1588027447000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1588027447000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1588027447000"> Monday, Apr 27, 2020 · 10:44:07 PM +00:00 · David Nir </a> <div class="live-update-content">Election Changes Please bookmark our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/1/14/1855760/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-primary-calendar">statewide 2020 primary calendar</a> and our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/2/17/1917521/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-calendar-of-key-elections-across-the-country">calendar of key downballot races</a>, both of which we're updating continually as changes are finalized. • Connecticut: Democratic Secretary of State Denise Merrill says <a href="https://www.ctnewsjunkie.com/archives/entry/20200426_merrill_mulls_sending_absentee_ballot_applications_to_voters/">she's considering sending absentee ballot applications</a> to all registered Democrats and Republicans ahead of Connecticut's Aug. 11 primaries (the state only allows party members to vote in primaries). Merrill <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/10/1935982/-Morning-Digest-Two-years-after-upset-win-AOC-faces-a-well-funded-primary-challenge-at-home#2">had previously planned</a> to send ballot applications to voters for the state's presidential primary, but that election was postponed from June 2 to Aug. 11 and consolidated with Connecticut's downballot primaries. Because the state currently requires voters to present an excuse to request an absentee ballot, Merrill has encouraged Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont to issue an executive order allowing all voters to cite the coronavirus pandemic as an acceptable excuse. On Friday, Lamont refused to say whether he would sign such an order, saying only, "We’re working on that right now as we speak." <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/10/1935982/-Morning-Digest-Two-years-after-upset-win-AOC-faces-a-well-funded-primary-challenge-at-home#2">Three weeks ago</a>, Lamont's top counsel said the governor's office was researching whether the excuse requirement could be relaxed. • Missouri: Republican State House Speaker Elijah Haahr says <a href="https://www.news-leader.com/story/news/2020/04/24/speaker-backs-clerks-plan-keep-elections-safe-amid-covid/3021406001/">he supports relaxing Missouri's excuse requirement</a> to vote absentee and says that the legislature will hold a hearing on election-related issues sometime during its session over the next three weeks. Many county clerks have advocated for waiving the requirement, but Republican Gov. Mike Parson has opposed the idea. A lawsuit seeking to allow voters to cite the coronavirus pandemic as a valid excuse is pending in state court. • New Jersey: Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy says <a href="https://newjerseyglobe.com/governor/still-no-news-on-further-primary-changes-murphy-says/">he still has not made a decision</a> about whether to conduct New Jersey's July 7 primaries by mail. <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/10/1935982/-Morning-Digest-Two-years-after-upset-win-AOC-faces-a-well-funded-primary-challenge-at-home#7">Three weeks ago</a>, the last time Murphy addressed the matter, the governor said the state would have to decide in "a number of weeks." • New York: New York's Board of Elections, a bipartisan panel whose members are all appointed by Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/27/us/politics/democratic-primary-canceled-coronavirus.html">has canceled the state's June 23 presidential primary</a>. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders had asked that the Democratic primary go forward, but a Democratic board member, Douglas Kellner, said, "What the Sanders campaign wanted is essentially a beauty contest that, given the situation with the public health emergency, seems to be unnecessary and, indeed, frivolous." However, the state's downballot primaries, which are taking place the same day, will proceed as planned, meaning the only way public safety might be enhanced is if turnout is lower as a result. According to the New York Times, about one third of New York counties have no other races on the ballot and therefore will not hold an election. It is not clear what proportion of the state would be affected. Separately, Cuomo <a href="https://www.cityandstateny.com/articles/politics/campaigns-elections/cuomo-cancels-most-june-special-elections.html">canceled the June 23 special election</a> for Queens Borough President, an all-party race that would have allowed the winner to serve out the current calendar year. However, a second, separate special election for the final year of now-Queens District Attorney Melinda Katz's term will still go forward. This will be a traditional race, with party primaries on June 23 and a general election in November. There will then be <a href="https://thecity.nyc/2020/01/five-trips-to-the-polls-to-pick-queens-borough-president.html">still another election next year</a> for the borough presidency's regular four-year term. Cuomo also canceled several state legislative special elections, instead leaving those seats vacant until the November general election. The special election for New York's 27th Congressional District in the Buffalo suburbs will still proceed on June 23. • Virginia: Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam <a href="https://www.insidenova.com/news/election/northam-moves-local-elections-to-may-19/article_0ef7a2a6-8657-11ea-820f-af1415c8505f.html">has postponed</a> Virginia's May 5 local elections to May 19, the longest delay he is permitted to unilaterally impose under state law. Last week, the Democratic-run legislature <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/24/1939867/-Morning-Digest-Why-the-Utah-GOP-s-convention-will-leave-lots-of-Republican-campaigns-crying#4">rejected Northam's proposal</a> to consolidate local races with the November general election. </div> </div> rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) DailyKosElections DKELiveDigests _1940103 Mon, 27 Apr 2020 13:00:15 +0000 Morning Digest: Kansas GOP asks Senate candidates to drop out to unify primary field vs. Kris Kobach https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/27/1940548/-Morning-Digest-Kansas-GOP-asks-Senate-candidates-to-drop-out-to-unify-primary-field-vs-Kris-Kobach The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar. <h4>Leading Off</h4> <a href="#1" name="1">●</a> KS-Sen: In an unusual move, Kansas GOP chair Mike Kuckelman <a href="https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article242232001.html">sent letters on Thursday</a> to two Senate candidates, state Senate Senate President Susan Wagle and Kansas Turnpike Authority chair Dave Lindstrom, that asked them to drop out of the August primary in order to "to allow our Party to coalesce behind a candidate who will not only win, but will help Republicans down the ballot this November." Kuckelman did not mention former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, who lost the 2018 gubernatorial race and whom national Republicans fear will endanger their hold on this Senate seat if he's nominated. However, there's no question that the chair sent these messages in order to try to reduce the field and make it tougher for Kobach to win a crowded primary. rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) ALANGRAYSON BarbaraBollier BobHamilton BradMole chriscox ClubForGrowth DailyKosElections DaveLindstrom DKEMorningDigest DonaldTrump EastBatonRougeParishLA Elections FL-06 FL-25 FreeForeverPAC GaryPeters Hodas&Associates JimJustice JohnJames KathyLanding Kentucky KrisKobach KS-Sen MarioDiaz-Balart MI-Sen MichaelWaltz NancyMace NewYork NorthDakota PeterThiel RestorationPAC RogerMarshall SC-01 SharonWestonBroome St.GeorgeLA susanwagle Utah WPAIntelligence WV-Gov yadiraescobar _1940548 Mon, 27 Apr 2020 12:00:07 +0000 Daily Kos Elections weekly open thread https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/24/1940165/-Daily-Kos-Elections-weekly-open-thread <div class="dk-editor-embed embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9 center-block"> <div class="remove-embed-content">x</div> <div class="dk-editor-embed embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9 center-block"> <div class="remove-embed-content"><a class="new_iframe_placeholder" href="#">x</a></div> <a class="iframe_placeholder youtube dk-embed" href="//youtube.com/watch?v=a5uQMwRMHcs" title="" data-frameborder="0" data-height="281" data-src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/a5uQMwRMHcs" data-width="500">YouTube Video</a></div> </div> rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) DailyKosElections DKEOpenThreads _1940165 Fri, 24 Apr 2020 22:22:54 +0000 Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/24 https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/24/1938197/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-4-24 Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. Please note: The Live Digest is a 2016 and 2020 Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy. Sign up <a href="http://dailykos.com/electionsdigest" target="_blank">here</a> to receive the Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest in your inbox each weekday. <div><a name="update-1587742841000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587742841000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587742841000">Friday, Apr 24, 2020 · 3:40:41 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> SC-01: State Rep. Nancy Mace’s allies at the anti-tax Club for Growth are <a href="https://www.clubforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/CFG_SC1_PollingMemo_20042231-1.pdf">out a WPA Intelligence poll</a> of the June 9 GOP primary that shows her well ahead in the contest to face Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham. Mace takes 42%, which is a bit below the majority she’d need to avoid a runoff two weeks later, while Mount Pleasant Town Councilwoman Kathy Landing is in second with 13%. Two other candidates, Bikers for Trump founder Chris Cox and Some Dude Brad Mole, take 8% and 3%, respectively. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587744955000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587744955000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587744955000">Friday, Apr 24, 2020 · 4:15:55 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> FL-06: In an odd move <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/12/14/1610777/-Morning-Digest-Democratic-Rep-Michelle-Lujan-Grisham-launches-campaign-to-succeed-Susana-Martinez#9">even for him</a>, former Democratic Rep. Alan Grayson announced Thursday that he would challenge GOP Rep. Michael Waltz in the reliably red 6th District … <a href="https://floridapolitics.com/archives/329618-alan-grayson-files-to-run-in-cd-6-just-to-mess-with-michael-waltzs-franking">as a write-in candidate</a>. Grayson, who tried to return to the House last cycle by <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/8/30/1791947/-Morning-Digest-National-GOP-group-to-spend-millions-for-Ted-Cruz-revealing-worry-about-Texas#24">unsuccessfully challenging Democratic Rep. Darren Soto</a> in the nearby 9th District, admitted, “I don’t expect to win in a write-in campaign as a member of Congress. That’s not realistic at all.” However, Grayson said he was campaigning in order to limit Waltz’s ability to send taxpayer-funded communications to constituents, a practice known as franking. <a href="https://cha.house.gov/franking-commission/franking-tips/franking-blackout-rules">House members are prohibited</a> from sending out “unsolicited mass mailing or mass communication” within 90 days of any election <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL34274.pdf#page=22" title="">where their name will be on the ballot</a>. Florida <a href="http://www.leg.state.fl.us/statutes/index.cfm?App_mode=Display_Statute&Search_String=&URL=0100-0199/0105/Sections/0105.051.html" target="_blank">does not include races on the ballot</a> where there is just one person who is registered to run, but by filing to run as a write-in candidate, Grayson says he’s ensured that Waltz <a href="https://floridapolitics.com/archives/329618-alan-grayson-files-to-run-in-cd-6-just-to-mess-with-michael-waltzs-franking">won’t be able to exercise his franking privileges</a> for the final three months of the cycle. Several other candidates have <a href="https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/candidates/CanList.asp">filed to run against Waltz</a>, though, including two Democrats. When Florida Politics mentioned this to Grayson on Thursday <a href="https://floridapolitics.com/archives/329618-alan-grayson-files-to-run-in-cd-6-just-to-mess-with-michael-waltzs-franking">he replied</a>, “It’s working out that way. But there was no way to know.” Actually, there was: Both Democrats <a href="https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/candidates/CanDetail.asp?account=74903">Richard Thripp</a> and <a href="https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/candidates/CanDetail.asp?account=74929">Clint Curtis</a> qualified for the ballot on Monday, <a href="https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/candidates/CanDetail.asp?account=75572">two days before Grayson</a>. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587755807000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587755807000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587755807000">Friday, Apr 24, 2020 · 7:16:47 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> East Baton Rouge Parish, LA: Back in October, residents in Baton Rouge's mostly white southeastern suburbs voted 54-46 to <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/11/26/1901892/-Morning-Digest-Lawsuit-freezes-white-suburb-s-plan-to-distance-itself-from-heavily-black-LA-city#1" title="">create a new city to be called St. George</a>, but the area still remains an unincorporated part of East Baton Rouge Parish six months later. The effort remains stalled in in the legislature and in court, and there’s no telling when there will be a resolution. Last month, GOP state Sen. Bodi White filed legislation to <a href="https://www.businessreport.com/politics/st-george-transition-bill-waiting-for-hearing-when-legislature-reconvenes">create a transition district</a> that would lay out how the proposed new city would share sales taxes and expenses with the rest of the parish. However, while the Baton Rouge Business Report <a href="https://www.businessreport.com/politics/st-george-to-appeal-ruling-allowing-broome-cole-to-sue">writes that the bill was “expected” to pass</a> the heavily Republican legislature, the session was put on hold as the coronavirus pandemic got worse. Legislators are able to <a href="https://www.wbrz.com/news/reworked-louisiana-elections-plan-crosses-legislative-hurdle/">cast votes remotely</a>, but it <a href="https://www.houmatoday.com/opinion/20200417/opinion-heres-whats-coming-from-louisiana-legislature">remains to be seen</a> when they'll be able to meet again or how much of a priority White’s proposal will be when they do. Meanwhile, East Baton Rouge Parish Mayor-President Sharon Weston Broome, a Democrat, is part of an ongoing lawsuit that seeks to prevent the incorporation. The <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/11/26/1901892/-Morning-Digest-Lawsuit-freezes-white-suburb-s-plan-to-distance-itself-from-heavily-black-LA-city#1">suit charges</a> that St. George's backers have failed to explain how the area, which currently receives services from the parish government, would provide necessary services like sanitation and policing on its own. It also argues that St. George's incorporation would have a "substantial adverse impact" on the city of Baton Rouge, as well as other unincorporated areas of the parish, by necessitating cuts to government operations. St. George supporters <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/10/14/1892401/-Louisiana-suburb-votes-to-form-its-own-city-and-a-mostly-white-school-district">say they were driven</a> to create a new city by a desire to form their own school district. Opponents, which include<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/10/us/baton-rouge-st-george.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share"> much of Baton Rouge's political and business establishment</a>, have in turn accused backers of seeking to segregate St. George's white students from the predominantly black East Baton Rouge Parish school system. The St. George area is also more affluent than the rest of Baton Rouge, so its incorporation could undermine parish schools and government financially: One analysis concluded that St. George's creation<a href="https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/article_4c842ecc-ec43-11e9-bf9c-7f1c0b207650.html"> could lead to an 18% budget cut</a> unless the rest of the parish raises taxes. The situation is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon, but Broome, who is perhaps the most prominent opponent of the St. George effort, is up for re-election in November. At the beginning of the year it <a href="https://www.businessreport.com/business/baton-rouge-mayor-election-sharon-weston-broome">looked like</a> she would face a crowded field of opponents and that the issue could play a role in the campaign. However, several would-be Broome foes <a href="https://www.businessreport.com/newsletters/coronavirus-crisis-changes-dynamics-of-baton-rouge-mayoral-race">acknowledged earlier this month</a> that the ongoing pandemic has them reconsidering whether they’ll actually run. The <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/2/17/1917521/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-calendar-of-key-elections-across-the-country">filing deadline is in mid-July</a>, so it may be a while before this contest comes into focus. P.S. If St. George does eventually win incorporation when all is said and done, it <a href="https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/article_4c842ecc-ec43-11e9-bf9c-7f1c0b207650.html">would still be years</a> before a separate school district, which is what its proponents say is driving their effort, could even come into being. The process of creating a new district is a separate process from creating a new city, and St. George organizers have said in October that they wouldn’t get is started for another two or three years. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587760502000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587760502000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587760502000">Friday, Apr 24, 2020 · 8:35:02 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> KS-Sen: In an unusual move, Kansas GOP chair Mike Kuckelman <a href="https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article242232001.html">sent letters on Thursday</a> to two Senate candidates, state Senate Senate President Susan Wagle and Kansas Turnpike Authority chair Dave Lindstrom, that asked them to drop out of the August primary in order to “to allow our Party to coalesce behind a candidate who will not only win, but will help Republicans down the ballot this November.” Kuckelman did not mention former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, who lost the 2018 gubernatorial race and who national Republicans fear will endanger their hold on this Senate seat if he’s nominated. However, there’s no question that the chair sent these messages in order to try and reduce the field and make it tougher for Kobach to win a crowded primary. So far, though, Kuckelman’s efforts aren’t working. Wagle’s team responded to the news by saying, “Private conversations with Mike Kuckelman over the past year have made it clear he’s been opposed to Susan’s campaign from the start, and today, he simply put that on paper. Others can speculate on his motives, but it may be as simple as he doesn’t support strong, pro-life conservative women.” Lindstrom in turn told the Kansas City Star that, while he didn’t think Kuckelman was trying to get him to leave the race, “The polling information I have, it says that I can win.” The <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/6/4/1855760/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-primary-calendar">state’s filing deadline is in early June</a>, so the pressure campaign could last for a while longer. Shannon Golden, who serves as the state party’s executive director, <a href="https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article242232001.html">confirmed to the paper that Wagle and Lindstrom</a> were the only candidates that Kuckelman asked to quit the race. Golden said that the party leaders wanted to set up a clear choice for primary voters between Rep. Roger Marshall and Kobach, though she denied that they were trying to undermine Kobach. Wealthy businessman Bob Hamilton and a few minor candidates are also in, and while Golden confirmed Hamilton wasn’t asked to drop out, she argued that he couldn’t win the nod. “He entered the race late,” Golden explained, “His name ID is nonexistent outside of Johnson County.” Hamilton, though, has the resources to get his name out <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938848/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-Senate-fundraising-reports-roundup">thanks to $2 million in self-funding</a>. Hamilton, who also raised $156,000 from donors, ended March with a small $2.15 million to $1.95 million cash-on-hand lead over Marshall, but that margin may get larger. Marshall only raised $373,000 during the first quarter of 2020, and so far, he hasn’t done any serious self-funding. Wagle <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938848/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-Senate-fundraising-reports-roundup">took in just $101,000 during the first quarter</a> with $515,000 on-hand, while Lindstrom was further behind with $79,000 raised and $266,000 in the bank. Kobach took in a smaller $239,000 during the quarter and had only $317,000 on-hand, but he may very well be tough to beat in a crowded field. Kobach, earned national infamy <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/7/9/1870324/-Morning-Digest-Infamous-vote-suppressor-and-anti-immigrant-activist-joins-Kansas-GOP-Senate-primary#1">for his voter suppression tactics</a>, also likely retains plenty of name recognition with the party base, and he has some powerful friends. Notably, billionaire Peter Thiel has <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/peter-thiel-dumps-another-quarter-million-into-group-backing-right-wing-firebrand-kris-kobachs-senate-bid">given $350,000 so far</a> to the pro-Kobach super PAC Free Forever PAC, <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2020/04/24/kansas-republicans-try-to-cull-the-field-787121">with $250,000 of that coming</a> during the first quarter of the year. And while the anti-tax Club for Growth hasn’t taken sides in this contest, it reportedly <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/31/1933125/-Radical-anti-tax-group-launches-expensive-campaign-against-an-old-enemy-in-Kansas-Senate-race">reserved $2.1 million for an upcoming ad campaign</a> against Marshall—a move that could very much benefit Kobach by weakening his main primary foe. Democrats could also benefit from a Kobach win in August. National Democrats have consolidated behind state Sen. Barbara Bollier, who <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938848/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-Senate-fundraising-reports-roundup">hauled in $2.34 million</a> during the opening months of 2020, a <a href="https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article242232001.html">figure Golden called</a> “extremely shocking.” Bollier also ended March with $2.4 million in the bank, which was more than any of the Republicans had. Manhattan Mayor Pro Tem Usha Reddi is also seeking the Democratic nod, but she had just $65,000 to spend. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587761332000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587761332000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587761332000">Friday, Apr 24, 2020 · 8:48:52 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> MI-Sen: The conservative group Restoration PAC, which has been airing ads attacking Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, is out with a new poll from the GOP firm Hodas & Associates that shows the incumbent <a href="https://www.restorationofamerica.com/reelection_index_release_april_23">leading Republican John James 46-37</a>, while Joe Biden beats Donald Trump 49-43. The Senate numbers are <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/2/1933477/-Morning-Digest-Mirroring-Trump-Texas-GOP-candidate-s-ad-fans-anti-Chinese-racism-over-coronavirus#13">similar to the 48-39 lead</a> for Peters that Hodas found last month. Restoration PAC’s <a href="https://www.restorationofamerica.com/reelection_index_release_april_23">release says it’s decided to regularly poll Michigan</a>, along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, because “national polling results are disjointed and hard to interpret. By zeroing in on three crucial swing states that President Trump almost certainly needs to win to be re-elected, citizens can figure out how the election is going at a glance.” The writeup only noted the Michigan Senate race briefly and mostly focused on Trump’s standing in these three states. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587761683000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587761683000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587761683000">Friday, Apr 24, 2020 · 8:54:43 PM +00:00 · David Nir </a> <div class="live-update-content"> Election Changes Please bookmark our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/1/14/1855760/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-primary-calendar">statewide 2020 primary calendar</a> and our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/2/17/1917521/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-calendar-of-key-elections-across-the-country">calendar of key downballot races</a>, both of which we're updating continually as changes are finalized. Kentucky: Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear <a href="https://kentucky.gov/Pages/Activity-stream.aspx?n=GovernorBeshear&prId=139">has issued an executive order</a> after receiving recommendations from Republican Secretary of State Michael Adams that will expand mail voting for Kentucky's June 23 primary. As outlined by election law expert Josh Douglas, <a href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaADouglas/status/1253697420787101696">the order implements a wide variety of reforms</a>, chief among them: <ul> <li>All voters may now vote absentee (Kentucky ordinarily requires an excuse).</li> <li>All voters will be sent a postcard explaining how to request an absentee ballot, including via a new online portal.</li> <li>Ballot requests and ballots will not need to be notarized.</li> <li>Voters who need to cast ballots in person will be able to do so during a two-week early voting period (during which they can schedule an appointment to vote) and at limited sites on Election Day.</li> <li>Ballots will count as long as they are postmarked by Election Day and received three days later.</li> </ul> Douglas notes that final regulations have not yet been promulgated, and in particular, he says he has urged officials to extend the absentee ballot receipt deadline. New York: Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo said <a href="https://twitter.com/KatieMorseNews/status/1253713478868705282">he would issue an executive order</a> directing that all voters receive an absentee ballot application for New York's June 23 primaries. Local news station NY1 <a href="https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2020/04/20/new-york-voting-by-mail-to-be-allowed-for-june-elections-queens-borough-president-congress">had previously reported</a> that Cuomo would order ballots, rather than applications, sent to voters, but a Cuomo aide <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/24/1939867/-Morning-Digest-Why-the-Utah-GOP-s-convention-will-leave-lots-of-Republican-campaigns-crying#3">declined to confirm that report</a>. North Dakota: All 53 North Dakota counties <a href="https://www.ndaco.org/ndaco-news/north-dakotans-to-receive-ballots-by-mail-for-june-election/">say they will conduct</a> the state's June 9 primaries entirely by mail, following <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/30/1932459/-Morning-Digest-Trump-declares-war-on-GOP-congressman-who-held-up-coronavirus-bill#7">an executive order</a> from Republican Gov. Doug Burgum allowing them to do so. Under Burgum's order, voters will be sent absentee ballot applications. However, the counties say that no in-person voting locations of any kind will be open on Election Day, which could run afoul of federal laws requiring that voting be accessible to persons with disabilities. An all-mail election also poses particular difficulties for Native voters on reservations, where mail service can be limited. The counties say in a statement that "[r]eservation counties have worked with tribal governments in their county to secure agreements to support Vote by Mail" but provide no further details. Utah: Republican Gov. Gary Herbert <a href="https://governor.utah.gov/2020/04/23/governor-signs-ten-bills/">has signed a bill</a> to conduct Utah's June 30 primaries <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938632/-Morning-Digest-Facing-ethics-probe-GOP-congressman-in-competitive-seat-spends-big-on-legal-fees#25">entirely by mail</a> and cancel in-person voting. The legislation does however require that counties "provide a method of accessible voting" to those voters with disabilities who are unable to vote by mail. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587762049000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587762049000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587762049000">Friday, Apr 24, 2020 · 9:00:49 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> WV-Gov: On Thursday evening, Donald Trump <a href="https://www.wboy.com/news/your-local-election-hq/president-trump-takes-to-twitter-to-endorse-wv-gov-big-jim-justice/">tweeted out his endorsement</a> for Gov. Jim Justice in the June GOP primary. (This is the one time anyone can honestly say that Trump supports Justice.) Justice, who was elected as a Democrat, switched parties at a 2017 Trump rally, and Trump has gushed over him ever since. Justice faces an expensive intra-party fight against former state Commerce Secretary Woody Thrasher. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587763116000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587763116000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587763116000">Friday, Apr 24, 2020 · 9:18:36 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> FL-25: While GOP Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart represents a South Florida seat that <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">only backed Donald Trump 50-48</a>, he won’t face any opposition whatsoever this cycle. Diaz-Balart’s sole opponent, Democrat Yadira Escobar, didn’t end up filing, and neither did anyone else before candidate qualifying closed on Friday. Florida doesn’t <a href="http://www.leg.state.fl.us/statutes/index.cfm?App_mode=Display_Statute&Search_String=&URL=0100-0199/0105/Sections/0105.051.html">list races on the ballot</a> where there is just one person who is registered to run, so Diaz-Balart has won his 10th term by default. Diaz-Balart would have been very difficult to beat even under the most favorable circumstances, though. While Trump only narrowly carried the district, Republicans still do very well here downballot. Last cycle, Diaz-Balart turned back a well-funded challenge <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Mario_Diaz-Balart">from Democrat Mary Barzee Flores 60.5-39.5</a>, and according to analyst Matthew Isbell, all five members of the GOP’s 2018 statewide ticket <a href="http://mcimaps.com/2018-congress/">won at least 57% of the vote here</a>. Still, it’s always good to field a candidate in case the unexpected happens, and that’s impossible now. </div> </div> rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) DailyKosElections DKELiveDigests _1938197 Fri, 24 Apr 2020 13:00:10 +0000 Morning Digest: Why the Utah GOP's convention will leave lots of Republican campaigns crying https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/24/1939867/-Morning-Digest-Why-the-Utah-GOP-s-convention-will-leave-lots-of-Republican-campaigns-crying The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar. <h4>Leading Off</h4> <a href="#1" name="1">●</a> Utah: Utah Republicans and Democrats will hold their virtual party conventions on Saturday, and several campaigns are counting on a strong performance to make it to the June 30 primary ballot. Not all of them will get their desired results, though, and at least some contenders for governor, U.S. House, and attorney general will see their campaigns come to an end this weekend. rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) AmyMcGrath AndersonRobbinsResearch AnnKirkpatrick AZ-02 AZ-Sen BeaconResearch DailyKosElections DanForest DitchMitchFund DKEMorningDigest Elections FL-03 FL-26 GaryPeters IrinaVilarino JohnBlair JohnJames JosephSanchez KentGuinn KY-Sen Maine MarcoSerna MarthaMcSally MI-Sen MitchMcConnell NC-Gov NewYork NM-03 NoranRuden ProtectOurCare PublicPolicyPolling RoyCooper Shaw&CompanyResearch ShayStautz TeresaLegerFernandez TerryMcAuliffe UT-01 UT-04 Ut-AG UT-Gov Utah VA-Gov ValeriePlame Virginia _1939867 Fri, 24 Apr 2020 12:00:20 +0000 Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/23 https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/23/1938196/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-4-23 Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. Please note: The Live Digest is a 2016 and 2020 Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy. Sign up <a href="http://dailykos.com/electionsdigest" target="_blank">here</a> to receive the Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest in your inbox each weekday. <div> <a name="update-1587659160000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587659160000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587659160000"> Thursday, Apr 23, 2020 · 4:26:00 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">Utah: Utah Republicans and Democrats will hold their virtual party conventions on Saturday, and several campaigns are counting on a strong performance to make it to the June 30 primary ballot. Not all of them will get their desired results, though, and at least some contenders for governor, U.S. House, and attorney general will see their campaigns come to an end this weekend. First, the rules. Utah allows candidates to reach the primary ballot either by turning in the requisite number of signatures or by competing at their party conventions, though contenders have the options to try both methods. Any candidate who has handed in enough signatures will be in the primary no matter how well or poorly they do at the convention. Utah Republicans will <a href="https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/4/21/21229824/utah-state-party-conventions-virtual-republican-democrat">use a ranked-choice ballot</a> at this year’s convention, which will take place online because of restrictions on in-person gatherings, in contests with more than two candidates. In place of the traditional speeches, delegates will be able to watch a pre-recorded video from each candidate. Voting, which will be done over an app, opened on Thursday and closes <a href="https://utgop.org/convention-voting/">Saturday at 5 PM local time</a> (7 PM ET), and the results will be announced sometime afterwards. If one contender ends up taking more than 60% of the delegate vote, they will be the only candidate to reach the primary ballot. If, however, no one hits this threshold, then the two competitors left standing will advance to the primary. Utah Democrats are <a href="https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/4/21/21229824/utah-state-party-conventions-virtual-republican-democrat">operating under similar rules</a>, though Team Blue’s delegates will only be able to vote on Saturday. The biggest race to watch this weekend will be the GOP contest to succeed retiring Gov. Gary Herbert. Businessman Jeff Burningham, former state House Speaker Greg Hughes, Salt Lake County Council chair Aimee Winder Newton, and perennial candidate Jason Christensen are only pursuing the convention route to the ballot, so if they fare poorly, their campaigns are over. Former party chair Thomas Wright, Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox, and former Ambassador to Russia Jon Huntsman have each turned in enough signatures to reach the primary, though they’re each also taking part at the convention. There will also be some drama in the GOP races for the 1st and 4th Congressional Districts. A total of 12 Republicans are running in the safely red 1st District to succeed retiring Rep. Rob Bishop, who is Wright's candidate for lieutenant governor, and they all are attending the convention. However, just <a href="https://kutv.com/news/local/poll-stevenson-witt-lead-race-for-gop-nomination-in-utahs-1st-congressional-district">two of these candidates</a>, Davis County Commissioner Bob Stevenson and Kaysville Mayor Katie Witt, turned in the requisite number of signatures to make the ballot, while election officials are <a href="https://elections.utah.gov/2020-signature-gathering-candidates">still verifying</a> businessman Blake Moore’s petitions. It’s definitely convention or bust, though, for the rest of the field, including Morgan County Councilor Tina Cannon, former Commissioner of Agriculture Kerry Gibson, and Clearfield Mayor Mark Shepherd. The convention will also winnow the field in the GOP contest to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams in the 4th District. All seven Republicans are competing, but <a href="https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/4/21/21229824/utah-state-party-conventions-virtual-republican-democrat">the only three</a> who also turned in the requisite number of petitions are former radio host Jay Mcfarland; former NFL player Burgess Owens; and Trent Christensen, who served as a regional finance director for Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign. The four contenders who are depending on the convention are party activist Kathleen Anderson; nurse practitioner Chris Biesinger; state Rep. Kim Coleman; and businesswoman Cindy Thompson. The final major GOP race to watch is the contest for attorney general, where <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/25/1930862/-Morning-Digest-Comeback-bid-by-former-attorney-general-highlights-Utah-s-quirky-ballot-access-rules">none of the three candidates</a> decided to collect signatures. Incumbent Sean Reyes faces both John Swallow, who is running to regain the office he resigned from in 2013 due to corruption charges he was later acquitted of, and Utah County Attorney David Leavitt. This has <a href="https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/4/21/21229631/attorney-general-republican-ag-gop-race-john-swallow-website-sean-reyes-david-leavitt">become a very nasty contest</a>, with Swallow accusing Reyes of being part of a political “assassination” to remove him from office. Leavitt has also declared that Reyes is “shameless” for <a href="https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2020/04/18/utah-attorney-generals/">keeping large donations</a> from an energy company whose leaders were convicted of fraud in federal court. Things are far less eventful in any of these contests on the Democratic side. Republicans have held the governorship, the 1st District, and the attorney general’s office for decades, and that’s very unlikely to change this cycle. Over in the 4th District, McAdams should have little trouble winning his convention against a little-known challenger. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1587660956000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587660956000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587660956000"> Thursday, Apr 23, 2020 · 4:55:56 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">VA-Gov: Former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe told a University of Virginia politics class on Wednesday that he was <a href="https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1253056910821150732">still mulling a 2021 bid</a> for his old job and would decide after this year’s election. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1587666585000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587666585000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587666585000"> Thursday, Apr 23, 2020 · 6:29:45 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">AZ-Sen: Appointed GOP Sen. Martha McSally is out with a <a href="https://twitter.com/Zachary_Cohen/status/1253318898918854656">positive TV ad</a> that <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lIHWjGZOslI&feature=youtu.be">touts her work</a> during the coronavirus </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1587667464000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587667464000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587667464000"> Thursday, Apr 23, 2020 · 6:44:24 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">KY-Sen: The Hill reports that the Democratic group Ditch Mitch Fund has <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/494103-democratic-group-reserves-1-million-in-tv-ads-against-mcconnell">booked $1 million in TV ads</a> for the final weeks of the contest, which is larger than the $648,000 investment we <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/23/1939526/-Morning-Digest-Supreme-Court-elections-in-these-four-states-are-key-for-stopping-GOP-gerrymandering#14">had in our last Digest</a>. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s allies at the Senate Leadership Fund previously <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/24/1930470/-Morning-Digest-Mitch-McConnell-linked-super-PAC-reserves-67-million-in-TV-ads-for-key-Senate-races#1">reserved $10.8 million in fall TV ads</a>. While Kentucky is a deep red state, this is already turning into one of the most expensive Senate races of the cycle. Retired Marine pilot Amy McGrath, who has the support of the national Democratic establishment, outraised McConnell <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938848/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-Senate-fundraising-reports-roundup">$12.7 million to $7.3 million</a> during the first quarter of the year, though the incumbent still had a narrow $15.0 million to $14.8 million cash-on-hand lead at the end of March. A few other Democrats are also competing in the June primary, but Marine veteran Michael Broihier and state Rep. Charles Booker each had less than $80,000 in the bank. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1587668841000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587668841000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587668841000"> Thursday, Apr 23, 2020 · 7:07:21 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">MI-Sen: On behalf of Fox News, the Democratic group Beacon Research (formally known as Anderson Robbins Research) and the GOP firm Shaw & Company Research are out with a survey with some good news for Team Blue. Democratic Sen. Gary Peters <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-april-18-21-2020-michigan">leads Republican John James 46-36</a>, while the sample gives Joe Biden a 49-41 edge against Donald Trump. We’ve seen two other polls of this contest this month, and they’ve also found Peters ahead. The GOP pollster Spry Strategies’ survey for the conservative think tank American Principles Project <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/7/1934953/-Conservative-courts-order-Wisconsin-election-to-proceed-risks-to-health-and-democracy-be-damned#13">gave Peters a small 42-40 edge</a>, while the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/6/1934586/-Morning-Digest-California-s-property-tax-revolt-may-finally-get-rolled-back-with-new-ballot-measure#11">showed the incumbent up 45-38</a> in its monthly tracking poll for Peters’ allies at Progress Michigan. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1587669853000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587669853000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587669853000"> Thursday, Apr 23, 2020 · 7:24:13 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">NC-Gov: On behalf of the progressive group Protect Our Care, the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling is out with a survey that gives Democratic incumbent Roy Cooper <a href="https://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/NorthCarolinaResults1.pdf">a 53-40 lead over Republican Dan Forest</a>; this sample finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump 49-46. The margins for both races are very similar to what <a href="https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/presidential-race-in-nc-a-tossup-cunningham-and-cooper-lead/">PPP found earlier this month</a>. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1587670652000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587670652000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587670652000"> Thursday, Apr 23, 2020 · 7:37:32 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">AZ-02: Former University of Arizona lobbyist Shay Stautz announced Wednesday that he was <a href="https://tucson.com/news/local/political-notebook-gop-challenger-to-kirkpatrick-drops-out-spanish-language-ad-targets-mcsally/article_51adc168-5e5a-566b-a903-efa79c57b708.html">dropping out of the August GOP primary</a> to face Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick. Stautz’s decision came after two petitions were filed arguing that he didn’t have enough valid signatures to make the ballot. Stautz responded by saying that, because he felt that he would have reached “this point in the coming months anyway,” he would not “challenge the challenge.” The only remaining Republican who <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938632/-Morning-Digest-Facing-ethics-probe-GOP-congressman-in-competitive-seat-spends-big-on-legal-fees#6">had a notable amount of money</a> at the end of March was businessman Noran Ruden, who has mostly been self-funding his campaign <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">for this 50-45 Clinton seat</a>. Ruden, who owns a pest control company, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">had $156,000 on-hand</a>, which was well short of the $690,000 that Kirkpatrick had to spend. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1587670921000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587670921000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587670921000"> Thursday, Apr 23, 2020 · 7:42:01 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">FL-03: Ocala Mayor Kent Guinn announced this week that he was <a href="https://mycbs4.com/news/local/ocala-mayor-drops-out-of-race-for-congress">dropping out of the crowded August GOP primary</a> for this reliably red open seat. Guinn, who had <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">raised very little money</a>, wrote that he was departing “so that I can focus all of my attention on the local recovery efforts from effects of the COVID-19 and my duties as Mayor.” The filing deadline for federal candidates in Florida <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/6/4/1855760/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-primary-calendar" target="_blank">is on Friday</a>, so the field will be set here soon. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1587672004000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587672004000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587672004000"> Thursday, Apr 23, 2020 · 8:00:04 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">NM-03: Attorney Teresa Leger Fernandez is <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7P9-LhY9PWs">out with her second spot</a> ahead of the June Democratic primary for this safely blue seat. Leger Fernandez tells the audience she beat cancer 12 years ago, but “only because I had insurance that covered my treatment.” The candidate continues, “In times like these, too many just can’t afford to get sick,” and she declares, “It’s time to lower healthcare costs and finally bring down the price of prescriptions.” Leger Fernandez, who <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/10/1925945/-Morning-Digest-Montana-Democrats-land-their-top-candidate-to-challenge-GOP-Sen-Steve-Daines#20">won the state party convention</a> last month and has EMILY’s List endorsement, is one of several Democrats campaigning for this northern New Mexico seat. The top fundraiser in the first quarter of 2020 was former CIA agent Valerie Plame, who <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">outpaced Leger Fernandez $579,000 to $371,000</a>; Plame, ended March with a small $690,000 to $640,000 cash-on-hand edge. First Judicial District Attorney Marco Serna was further behind with $140,000 raised and $256,000 on-hand, while former New Mexico deputy secretary of state John Blair took in $104,000 and had $141,000 in the bank. State Rep. Joseph Sanchez had just $29,000 in the bank, while the rest of the field had less than $7,000 to spend. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1587673593000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587673593000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587673593000"> Thursday, Apr 23, 2020 · 8:26:33 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">FL-26: Restaurateur Irina Vilariño said Thursday that she was <a href="https://floridapolitics.com/archives/329633-vilarino-withdraws-cd-26">dropping out of the GOP contest</a> to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a decision that came one day before candidate filing closed. Vilariño’s departure from the race means that Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Giménez, who has Donald Trump’s endorsement, has no serious opposition in the August primary. NRCC recruiting chair Susan Brooks <a href="https://www.rollcall.com/2019/04/10/house-recruiter-to-gop-do-a-better-job-of-looking-like-america/">touted Vilariño in April of last year</a> as one of the House candidates who was “representing the very diverse country that we have,” but she quickly lost her luster. Talking Points Memo reported the next month that Vilariño had a <a href="https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/irina-vilarino-obama-birther-conspiracy-theory">habit of spreading far-right conspiracy theories</a>, including a video that was faked to make Barack Obama sound like he was saying, “I wasn’t born in the United States of America. I come from Kenya.” Vilariño remained in the race even Giménez launched his campaign in January and quickly earned Trump’s backing, but she <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">barely raised anything</a> in the first quarter of 2020 and finally bowed out on Thursday. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1587679607000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587679607000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587679607000"> Thursday, Apr 23, 2020 · 10:06:47 PM +00:00 · David Nir </a> <div class="live-update-content">Election Changes Please bookmark our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/1/14/1855760/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-primary-calendar">statewide 2020 primary calendar</a> and our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/2/17/1917521/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-calendar-of-key-elections-across-the-country">calendar of key downballot races</a>, both of which we're updating continually as changes are finalized. Maine: Democratic Secretary of State Matt Dunlap <a href="https://www.wmtw.com/article/maines-top-election-official-ready-for-coronavirus-delayed-primary-will-request-federal-election-assistance-funds/32241101">has reversed his stance</a> in favor of conducting Maine's July 14 primary by mail, saying now that he "would not recommend sending every voter a ballot, because people move a lot." Earlier this month, however, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/9/1935662/-Morning-Digest-Alaska-Supreme-Court-will-soon-decide-whether-GOP-governor-may-be-recalled#3">Dunlap told reporters</a> that an all-mail election would be the easiest option. New York: In response <a href="https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2020/04/20/new-york-voting-by-mail-to-be-allowed-for-june-elections-queens-borough-president-congress">to a report on Monday</a> from NY1's Zack Fink saying Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo would order that every voter be mailed a ballot for New York's June 23 primaries, <a href="https://www.syracuse.com/news/2020/04/coronavirus-in-ny-will-cuomo-order-vote-by-mail-for-june-primary-election.html">an unnamed Cuomo adviser tells Syracuse.com</a> that "the governor never stated he would issue such an order" but would not answer questions about Cuomo's plans. Unusually, voting rights advocates have come out against the idea, saying that while they support mail voting in principle, they believe New York is not ready to implement such a dramatic change in such a short timeframe. Virginia: While the Virginia state House passed Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam's proposal to consolidate the state's May 5 local elections with the November general election, the state Senate <a href="https://www.roanoke.com/news/local/state-senate-blocks-northams-proposal-to-move-may-elections-to-november-amid-push-for-june/article_5f8dfb6c-f3df-559a-9a8a-acd242715dbf.html">declined to take up the measure</a>, rendering the plan dead. A Northam spokesperson said the governor would "carefully review next steps" but did not indicate what those might be. However, with the legislative session now over, Northam would have to call a special session of the legislature to pass any new bills, a move he has opposed. He could also use his executive powers to postpone the elections two weeks, as he did with the state's June 23 primary, which had originally been scheduled for June 9. </div> </div> rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) DailyKosElections DKELiveDigests _1938196 Thu, 23 Apr 2020 13:00:07 +0000 Morning Digest: Supreme Court elections in these four states are key for stopping GOP gerrymandering https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/23/1939526/-Morning-Digest-Supreme-Court-elections-in-these-four-states-are-key-for-stopping-GOP-gerrymandering The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar. <h4>Leading Off</h4> <a href="#1" name="1">●</a> State Supreme Courts: Progressives <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/14/1936964/-Morning-Digest-Progressives-flip-Wisconsin-Supreme-Court-seat-held-by-Scott-Walker-appointee">just celebrated a decisive victory</a> for the Wisconsin Supreme Court last week, one that sets them up to flip the court in just a few years and finally put them in a position to police Republicans' voter suppression tactics, including their extreme gerrymanders. Wisconsin, though, is by no means the only state Democrats should have on their target lists for 2020 when it comes to supreme courts. As Stephen Wolf explains in a new story, progressives <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/22/1937550/-After-Wisconsin-these-four-states-Supreme-Court-elections-are-key-for-stopping-GOP-gerrymandering">have the chance to make major gains</a>—or even take outright majorities—on several other top courts this year, including those in Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) AdvancingArizona AndyBeshear AntoneMelton-Meaux AZ-Sen BarbaraCegavske BillGalvin CO-Sen DailyKosElections DianaBray DitchFund DKEMorningDigest Elections Florida IlhanOmar JimJustice JohnBelEdwards Kentucky KY-Sen KyleArdoin Louisiana MaryKiffmeyer Massachusetts michaeladams MichelleFerrignoWarren Minnesota MN-05 Nevada Pennsylvania SouthCarolina StateSupremeCourts TomBarrett TomWolf TonyEvers truethevote WestVirginia Wisconsin _1939526 Thu, 23 Apr 2020 12:00:25 +0000 Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/22 https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/22/1938195/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-4-22 Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. Please note: The Live Digest is a 2016 and 2020 Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy. Sign up <a href="http://dailykos.com/electionsdigest" target="_blank">here</a> to receive the Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest in your inbox each weekday. <div><a name="update-1587569516000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587569516000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587569516000">Wednesday, Apr 22, 2020 · 3:31:56 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> AZ-Sen: The Democratic group Advancing Arizona is up with a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1PUHD0oMCE&feature=youtu.be">Spanish-language ad</a> hitting GOP Sen. Martha McSally on healthcare. Politico reports that the <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2020/04/22/house-democrats-dominate-the-cash-on-hand-battle-787045">size of the buy is $700,000</a>. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587569651000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587569651000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587569651000">Wednesday, Apr 22, 2020 · 3:34:11 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> KY-Sen: Advertising Analytics‎ reports that Ditch Fund, which opposes Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, has <a href="https://twitter.com/Ad_Analytics/status/1252970075755347970">reserved $648,000</a> for a TV ad campaign that will run from Oct. 20 to Election Day. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587584654000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587584654000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587584654000">Wednesday, Apr 22, 2020 · 7:44:14 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> CO-Sen: On Tuesday, Denver District Court Judge Christopher Baumann ordered businesswoman Michelle Ferrigno Warren <a href="https://www.coloradopolitics.com/news/judge-orders-democrat-michelle-ferrigno-warren-onto-ballot-in-us-senate-primary/article_3ca78136-841c-11ea-b211-e7ef44a8a6d4.html">onto the June Democratic primary ballot</a> to take on GOP Sen. Cory Gardner. Democratic Secretary of State Jena Griswold has three days to appeal the decision from the time it was issued, but she has not yet said if she’ll do so. Ferrigno Warren only submitted about half of the 10,500 petitions needed, but Baumann noted that she “had to collect petition signatures in the shadow of a global pandemic and looming public health emergency.” Baumann <a href="https://durangoherald.com/articles/322191-us-senate-candidate-with-half-of-necessary-signatures-to-appear-on-primary-ballot">also wrote</a> that the candidate’s ability to collect about 5,400 petitions “suggests Ms. Ferrigno Warren has a ‘significant modicum’ of support for her candidacy.” Two other Democrats, climate activist Diana Bray and nonprofit head Lorena Garcia, are also suing to make the ballot. Ferrigno Warren had <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00714832/1395760/">just $22,000 to spend</a> at the end of March, though, while Bray and Garcia had even less, so they’d all have a very tough time getting their names out. The two main candidates are former Gov. John Hickenlooper and former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587584679000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587584679000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587584679000">Wednesday, Apr 22, 2020 · 7:44:39 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf </a> <div class="live-update-content"> State Supreme Courts: Progressives <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/14/1936964/-Morning-Digest-Progressives-flip-Wisconsin-Supreme-Court-seat-held-by-Scott-Walker-appointee">just celebrated a decisive victory</a> for the Wisconsin Supreme Court last week, one that sets them up to flip the court in just a few years and finally put them in a position to police Republicans’ voter suppression tactics, including their extreme gerrymanders. But Wisconsin is by no means the only state Democrats should have on their target lists for 2020 when it comes to supreme courts. As Stephen Wolf explains in a new story, progressives <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/22/1937550/-After-Wisconsin-these-four-states-Supreme-Court-elections-are-key-for-stopping-GOP-gerrymandering">have the chance to make major gains</a>—or even take outright majorities—on several other top courts this year, including those in Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. The federal judiciary has grown ever more hostile to voting rights during the Trump era, and the U.S. Supreme Court has refused to curtail partisan maps designed to entrench one-party rule. But at the same time, state courts have started striking down these gerrymanders—and crucially, these decisions rely on protections found in state constitutions, meaning that <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/29/1808108/-U-S-Supreme-Court-paves-the-way-for-state-supreme-courts-to-strike-down-GOP-gerrymanders">they’re insulated from John Roberts’ review</a>. Almost every state constitution, in fact, <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/03/partisan-gerrymandering-state-supreme-court-constitutions.html">offers similar protections</a>. The issue is who’s interpreting them. But unlike federal judges, many state Supreme Court justices are elected to their posts, so progressives have the opportunity to replace conservative ideologues with independent-minded jurists. That’s critical in Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas—states that the GOP has gerrymandered at every level. If Democrats can roll back the right-wing stranglehold on the state courts, they can make great strides toward fairer maps for the coming decade. <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/22/1937550/-After-Wisconsin-these-four-states-Supreme-Court-elections-are-key-for-stopping-GOP-gerrymandering">Read our full story</a> for more details on the high courts in each of these four states and how progressives can win back judicial power in each of them. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587586656000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587586656000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587586656000">Wednesday, Apr 22, 2020 · 8:17:36 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> MN-05: Rep. Ilhan Omar, who has been one of the most high-profile members of the freshman Democratic class, <a href="https://www.startribune.com/minneapolis-attorney-launches-primary-bid-against-rep-ilhan-omar/565808552/">picked up a primary challenge</a> back in December from attorney Antone Melton-Meaux. Melton-Meaux’s campaign hasn’t earned much national attention so far, but he did end March with almost $200,000 in the bank. Omar, though, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">had a hefty $1.32 million available</a> to defend herself in the August primary for this safely blue Minneapolis seat. Melton-Meaux <a href="https://www.startribune.com/minneapolis-attorney-launches-primary-bid-against-rep-ilhan-omar/565808552/">kicked off his campaign last year</a> by saying, “I think there’s a deep hunger from residents of this district for someone who is deeply engaged and has experience building community and coalitions and being effective,” but he didn’t go into any more detail at the time about why Omar should be ousted. This month, though, Melton-Meaux <a href="https://www.startribune.com/here-s-why-i-m-challenging-rep-ilhan-omar-in-the-dfl-primary/569421622/">wrote a piece</a> in the Star Tribune arguing that Omar “failed to find time to even visit all of her district” and “appears to be more focused on her own celebrity than on serving the district.” </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587592830000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587592830000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587592830000">Wednesday, Apr 22, 2020 · 10:00:30 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf </a> <div class="live-update-content"> Election Changes Please bookmark our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/1/14/1855760/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-primary-calendar">statewide 2020 primary calendar</a> and our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/2/17/1917521/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-calendar-of-key-elections-across-the-country">calendar of key downballot races</a>, both of which we're updating continually as changes are finalized. • Florida: Voting rights organizations <a href="https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/04/21/florida-sued-again-over-covid-19-voting-protocols/">have filed a lawsuit in federal court</a> over Florida’s election procedures. The plaintiffs are suing to require the state to extend the deadline to register to vote, return absentee mail ballots, and fix any issues with ballot envelope signatures not matching. This lawsuit also seeks to expand voter outreach efforts to unregistered voters; make it easier to register online; expand early voting; allow drop boxes for returning mail ballots; and establish alternative in-person voting methods such as curbside voting. Meanwhile, election supervisors in populous Broward, Miami-Dade, and Palm Beach Counties in southeast Florida have confirmed that they <a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article242180901.html">are planning to mail absentee ballot applications</a> with prepaid return postage to all registered voters for the August primary and November general election, but they are asking county authorities to provide the funding for them to do so. Collectively, these three counties are home to one in four Florida voters. • Kentucky: Republican Secretary of State Michael Adams <a href="https://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article242168791.html">announced that there will be</a> "a significant expansion" of absentee voting for the June 23 primary, saying he and Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear are "pretty close in agreement" on how it'll work. The state Board of Elections will also meet on Friday to discuss a plan for the primary to allow almost everyone to vote by mail, which currently requires an excuse, though it would need both Beshear and Adams to sign off. • Louisiana: Both chambers of Louisiana's heavily Republican legislature <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/news/article/Reworked-Louisiana-elections-plan-crosses-15218786.php">have passed a bill in committee</a> to expand early and mail voting for the state’s July 11 elections, which include the presidential primaries and several municipal contests, and for any local runoffs that take place on Aug. 15. The legislation came after Republican Secretary of State Kyle Ardoin <a href="https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/coronavirus/article_60a9f64c-83fc-11ea-9b42-73ed8882a09c.html">submitted a new emergency plan</a> with more limited loosening of the excuse requirement for mail voting, which Ardoin did after GOP lawmakers rejected his first proposal. The AP writes that both chambers are expected to pass the bill, and Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards has already said he supports it despite having previously backed Ardoin's broader first proposal. Instead of effectively waiving the excuse requirement by letting anyone vote absentee due to concerns over coronavirus, the GOP's legislation loosens the requirement only for people in certain medical situations. The bill would also let Ardoin extend early voting from seven days to 13 days and relocate polling places if needed. • Massachusetts: Democratic Secretary of State Bill Galvin <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/21/nation/mass-secretary-state-crafting-vote-by-mail-package-cautions-against-mailing-every-voter-ballot/">announced he is drafting legislation to enable no-excuse mail voting</a> for the September state primary and to expand mail voting for the November general election with the aim of releasing the proposal in May. The heavily Democratic state legislature would need to pass Galvin’s plan for it to take effect. Galvin, though, said he opposed automatically mailing ballots to all registered voters despite some Democrats calling on the state to do so. • Minnesota: On Tuesday, Democratic state senators <a href="https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/04/21/dfl-lawmakers-continue-push-for-mailin-voting">proposed automatically sending all registered voters a ballot</a> for this year's elections, but the chamber’s GOP majority quickly came out in opposition to the plan. Instead, Republican state Sen. Mary Kiffmeyer, who chairs the upper house’s Elections Committee, would only support expanding the state's existing no-excuse absentee mail voting option. • Nevada: True the Vote, a conservative organization that <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/a-reading-guide-to-true-the-vote-the-controversial-voter-fraud-watchdog">pushes voting restrictions</a> in the name of supposed voter fraud and has <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/true-vote-intimidating-minority-voters-polls/story?id=17618823">been accused of trying to intimidate black</a> and <a href="https://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckraker/in-texas-biggest-county-a-minority-registration-drive-is-crippled-by-fraud-allegations">Latino voters</a> into not voting, <a href="https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/another-lawsuit-filed-against-planned-mail-only-primary-election-by-conservative-voting-monitoring-group">has filed a federal lawsuit</a> opposing Republican Secretary of State Barbara Cegavske's plan to hold the June primary under universal mail voting. The lawsuit claims without sufficient evidence that it would "all but ensure an election replete with ballot fraud" even though five states already mail every registered voter a ballot by default and <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/false-narrative-vote-mail-fraud">have seen only vanishingly rare cases of voter fraud</a>. • Pennsylvania: Democrats <a href="https://www.inquirer.com/news/democratic-lawsuit-pennsylvania-voting-by-mail-2020-20200422.html">have filed a lawsuit</a> in state court seeking to require that Pennsylvania prepay the postage for all mail-in ballots, count ballots if they are postmarked by Election Day instead of only if they're received by Election Day, give voters a chance to correct problems with their ballot signature, and let third-party groups collect and return mail ballots. Meanwhile, Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf is encouraging all registered voters to apply for mail-in ballots for the June primary and <a href="https://www.governor.pa.gov/newsroom/gov-wolf-encourages-voters-to-apply-for-a-mail-in-ballot/">has sent out postcards with relevant information</a>. • South Carolina: On Wednesday, Democrats <a href="https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/41/2020/04/2020-04-22-South-Carolina-COVID-19-Petition-Complaint-and-Notice-of-Return-TO-RESPONDENTS.pdf">filed a lawsuit with South Carolina's Supreme Court</a> to allow anyone to vote absentee by mail this year due to concerns over coronavirus. Civil rights groups shortly thereafter <a href="https://www.naacpldf.org/press-release/ldf-and-aclu-file-federal-lawsuit-challenging-south-carolina-requirements-that-put-voters-at-risk-during-covid-19-pandemic/">filed a separate lawsuit in federal court</a> seeking to both relax the excuse requirement and eliminate the need for voters to have a witness sign their mail ballot envelope. South Carolina currently requires an excuse to vote absentee for all voters under age 65 and doesn't offer in-person early voting. • West Virginia: Democratic members in both chambers of the heavily GOP legislature have urged Republican Gov. Jim Justice to <a href="https://www.wymt.com/content/news/West-Virginia-legislators-consider-569860921.html">make the June primary take place near-entirely via mail</a> by sending every registered voter a ballot automatically and limiting in-person voting. West Virginia already <a href="http://wvmetronews.com/2020/04/19/1-2-million-absentee-ballot-applications-sent-to-west-virginia-voters/">implemented a plan to mail absentee ballot applications to all voters</a>, but voters still have to return the application and have it processed by election workers before getting mailed a ballot, which universal mail voting would render unnecessary. • Wisconsin: The Milwaukee Common Council (the equivalent of the city council) has unanimously voted to <a href="https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/04/21/milwaukee-council-votes-mail-absentee-ballot-applications/2995101001/" title="">create a program to send absentee mail ballot applications</a> out by mail to all 300,000 of the heavily Democratic city's registered voters. Both Democratic Mayor Tom Barrett and Gov. Tony Evers support it, and if other Democratic-leaning local jurisdictions follow suit, Republicans may feel pressured to expand absentee voting statewide to avoid putting GOP-leaning areas at a disadvantage. </div> </div> rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) DailyKosElections DKELiveDigests _1938195 Wed, 22 Apr 2020 13:00:22 +0000 Morning Digest: The Indiana GOP can't seem to shed its scandal-plagued AG, but one guy will try https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/22/1939263/-Morning-Digest-The-Indiana-GOP-can-t-seem-to-shed-its-scandal-plagued-AG-but-one-guy-will-try The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar. <h4>Leading Off</h4> <a href="#1" name="1">●</a> IN-AG: Decatur County Prosecutor Nate Harter announced Tuesday <a href="https://www.theindychannel.com/news/politics/republican-county-prosecutor-joins-race-for-attorney-general-other-candidate-drops-out">that he would challenge</a> scandal-ridden Indiana Attorney General Curtis Hill for the GOP nomination at the June party convention. There's a lot of uncertainty surrounding this contest, though, including whether Hill will even be allowed to complete his term. In 2018, four women <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/11/25/1901840/-Indiana-s-Republican-attorney-general-awaits-disciplinary-ruling-that-could-cost-him-his-job">accused Hill of groping them</a> at a party in March of that year, which prompted widespread calls from Hill's fellow Republicans for him to resign—calls he's refused to heed. The Indiana Supreme Court <a href="https://www.indystar.com/story/news/2020/02/14/indiana-attorney-general-curtis-hill-groping-allegations-hearing-officer-recommends-suspension/4764281002/" title="">later appointed Myra Selby</a>, a former justice, to preside over Hill's October 2019 disciplinary hearing and issue a report. rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) AdamKrupp AlOlszewski AmericanFederationofTeachers CurtisHill DailyKosElections DavidPerdue DKEMorningDigest Elections FL-13 GA-Sen-A Georgia GregGianforte Idaho IN-AG JimdeMint JohnWestercamp JonathanWeinzapfel JonOssoff KarenTallian KathyLanding MattBecker Michigan MikeCooney MJHegar MT-Gov NancyMace NateHarter NewYork NH-Gov RGA RoyceWest sarahriggsamico SC-01 TeresaTomlinson TimFox TomTiffany TriciaZunker TX-Sen WhitneyWilliams WI-07 _1939263 Wed, 22 Apr 2020 12:30:08 +0000 Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/21 https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/21/1938198/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-4-21 Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. Please note: The Live Digest is a 2016 and 2020 Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy. Sign up <a href="http://dailykos.com/electionsdigest" target="_blank">here</a> to receive the Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest in your inbox each weekday. <div> <a name="update-1587484085000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587484085000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587484085000"> Tuesday, Apr 21, 2020 · 3:48:05 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">FL-13: Businessman Matt Becker, who had <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">raised very little for his campaign</a>, announced this week that he was dropping out of the August GOP primary to face Democratic Rep. Charlie Crist. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1587484321000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587484321000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587484321000"> Tuesday, Apr 21, 2020 · 3:52:01 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">WI-07: Democrat Tricia Zunker is <a href="https://www.wispolitics.com/2020/zunkers-first-tv-ad-of-general-election-calls-tiffany-bad-for-our-health-and-economy">up with her first TV spot</a> for the May 12 general election for what has become a very red seat. The <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtdSS0D947M&feature=emb_title">narrator praises Zunker</a> as a “community leader we can trust to put politics aside and deliver on healthcare and jobs when we need it most.” The commercial also argues that Republican Tom Tiffany “opposed the law the protects patients with pre-existing conditions who are most at risk for COVID-19.” The narrator continues, “And he spoke against the bipartisan bill signed by President Trump to help small businesses hit hard by the pandemic.” </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1587494705000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587494705000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587494705000"> Tuesday, Apr 21, 2020 · 6:45:05 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">IN-AG: Decatur County Prosecutor Nate Harter announced Tuesday <a href="https://www.theindychannel.com/news/politics/republican-county-prosecutor-joins-race-for-attorney-general-other-candidate-drops-out">that he would challenge</a> scandal-ridden Indiana Attorney General Curtis Hill for the GOP nomination at the June party convention. There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding this contest, though, including whether Hill will even be allowed to complete his term. In 2018, four women <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/11/25/1901840/-Indiana-s-Republican-attorney-general-awaits-disciplinary-ruling-that-could-cost-him-his-job">accused Hill of groping them</a> at a party in March of that year, which prompted widespread calls from Hill’s fellow Republicans that he resign—calls he’s refused to heed. The Indiana Supreme Court <a href="https://www.indystar.com/story/news/2020/02/14/indiana-attorney-general-curtis-hill-groping-allegations-hearing-officer-recommends-suspension/4764281002/">later appointed Myra Selby</a>, a former justice, to preside over Hill’s October 2019 disciplinary hearing and issue a report. In February, <a href="http://media.ibj.com/Lawyer/websites/opinions/index.php?pdf=2020/February/SelbyRecommendation.pdf">Selby concluded</a> that the attorney general had committed battery and had “used his state office staff and others to engage in public campaign to defend himself and intimidate the complainants.” She also recommended that the Indiana Supreme Court <a href="https://www.southbendtribune.com/news/local/disciplinary-hearing-officer-recommends--day-suspension-in-curtis-hill/article_930f3024-4f73-11ea-be89-0f1dd6830278.html">suspend Hill's law license for 60 days</a> without an automatic reinstatement afterwards. It’s up to the justices to make the final decision on what Hill’s punishment will be, though, and they have not yet announced their verdict. It’s also unclear if Hill would be able to remain in office if his law license is suspended for any length of time. State law does require the attorney general to <a href="http://indypolitics.org/house-approves-amendment-to-remove-curtis-hill-from-office/">have a valid license</a>, but there isn’t any agreement whether or not a suspended license would be acceptable. The state House, with GOP Gov. Eric Holcomb’s support, <a href="https://howeypolitics.com/Files/HPI200312-08b6038272f0433e885d381ea79be39f.pdf#page=10">tried to clarify</a> this last month by passing an amendment that would remove the attorney general from office if their license were suspended for at least 30 days, but the provision died in the Senate. Hill remains in office for now, and he’s made it clear he’s running for re-election. Both parties in Indiana select nominees for attorney general at conventions rather than in party primaries, and the GOP gathering is <a href="http://indypolitics.org/harter-announces-ag-run/">scheduled for June 20</a>. However, no one knows if in-person gatherings will be possible by then, and Indy Politics writes that party leaders are looking at alternatives. Before Tuesday, Hill <a href="http://indypolitics.org/harter-announces-ag-run/">faced intra-party challenges</a> from attorney John Westercamp and former Department of Revenue Commissioner Adam Krupp. Krupp, though, announced Tuesday that he was exiting the contest and endorsing Harter, the Decatur County prosecutor who launched his own campaign that day. A crowded field won’t necessarily help Hill, either, since GOP rules <a href="http://indiana.gop/sites/default/files/03%2011%202019%20Amendment%20-%20Indiana%20State%20Party%20Rules.pdf#page=38">require candidates to win a majority of the delegates</a> in order to be nominated. If no one hits this threshold, then the candidate with the lowest amount of support is eliminated and voting continues until someone wins a majority. Democrats, who <a href="https://www.indems.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/IDP-Rules-August-2019.pdf#page=41">operate under the same rules</a>, will hold their nominating convention on June 13, but Team Blue has already decided to <a href="https://www.indems.org/state-convention/">make this a virtual event</a>. Former Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel and state Sen. Karen Tallian are both running to become the first Democrat to serve as Indiana attorney general since early 2001. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1587496977000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587496977000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587496977000"> Tuesday, Apr 21, 2020 · 7:22:57 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">GA-Sen-A: Jon Ossoff, who was Team Blue’s nominee in the 2017 special election for the 6th District, is <a href="https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/jon-ossoff-blasts-health-insurers-first-senate-georgia/LSV7KEzWF5SLWFME0FMZNL/">up with his first TV spot</a> for the June primary. Ossoff <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xrSbLMR2bg">tells the audience</a> that “like all our nurses and doctors, my wife Alisha is at the hospital every day, putting herself at risk to save lives during this crisis.” He continues, “We need to make sure our medical teams have every resource they need. We’ll get through this together, but it’s never been clearer we need to stand up to the health insurance companies that have bought off Congress.” Ossoff is one of three notable Democrats competing to take on GOP Sen. David Perdue, and he ended March with by far the most money of any of his intra-party competitors. Ossoff outraised former Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson<a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938848/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-Senate-fundraising-reports-roundup"> $1.02 million to $607,000</a> during the first three months of the year, and he had a $1.83 million to $436,000 cash-on-hand lead. Sarah Riggs Amico, who was the 2018 nominee for lieutenant governor, hauled in $159,000 during this time and had $279,000 in the bank. If no one takes a majority in the primary, a runoff <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/6/4/1855760/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-primary-calendar">would take place in August</a>. Whoever wins the Democratic nod will be in for a very expensive race against Perdue. The incumbent raised $1.65 million during the first quarter, and he had a hefty $9.05 million in the bank. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1587497283000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587497283000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587497283000"> Tuesday, Apr 21, 2020 · 7:28:03 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">TX-Sen: On Tuesday, state Sen. Royce West <a href="https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1252635709803868160">picked up an endorsement</a> from the Texas branch of the American Federation of Teachers for the July Democratic primary runoff. West faces retired Air Force pilot MJ Hegar in the contest to take on GOP Sen. John Cornyn. Hegar outraised West <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938848/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-Senate-fundraising-reports-roundup">$1.58 million to $361,000</a> during the first quarter of the year, while West self-funded an additional $40,000; Hegar ended March with a $1.1 million to $121,000 cash-on-hand. Cornyn took in $2.58 million during this time and had a huge $12.89 million war chest at the end of the quarter. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1587500951000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587500951000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587500951000"> Tuesday, Apr 21, 2020 · 8:29:11 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">MT-Gov, NH-Gov: Politico reports that the RGA’s state affiliates have <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2020/04/21/what-we-learned-from-the-monthly-filings-787017">reserved $3.6 million in TV time</a> in each of these contests for commercials that will start in early September. Republicans are hoping to win the contest to succeed termed-out Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock in Montana and defend GOP incumbent Chris Sununu in New Hampshire. Sununu won’t learn the identity of his Democratic opponent <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/6/4/1855760/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-primary-calendar">until the September nomination contest</a>, but Montana’s June 2 primary is coming up quickly. Plenty of votes will be cast well before then, though: Republican Secretary of State Corey Stapleton announced last month that all 56 Montana counties <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/7/1934953/-Conservative-courts-order-Wisconsin-election-to-proceed-risks-to-health-and-democracy-be-damned#3">plan to conduct the state's primary by mail</a>, and that ballots will be <a href="https://www.ktvh.com/news/montana-news/looks-like-all-mt-counties-will-do-all-mail-ballots-for-june-2-primary">mailed out to registered voters on May 8</a>. We haven’t seen any polls of either side’s primary all year, but the GOP’s money race remains as one-sided as even. Rep. Greg GIanforte <a href="https://www.ktvh.com/news/montana-news/gianforte-adds-another-500k-to-campaign-kitty">raised $100,000 from donors</a> from March 16 through April 15 and self-funded an additional $500,000. Attorney General Tim Fox was far back with $36,000 raised in the last month, while state Sen. Al Olszewski took in just $7,000. Montana requires candidates to <a href="http://politicalpractices.mt.gov/Portals/144/2018forms/Campaign%20Accounts%20Guidance.pdf?ver=2018-01-24-090215-210">establish separate accounts</a> for the primary and the general elections, so candidates also have two war chests: They have money they can use to win the primary, and funds they can only utilize if they advance to the general election. A victorious primary candidate may use leftover primary money in the general election, but candidates who lose their party’s nomination need to either refund their remaining primary funds or donate the money to a nonprofit. Unsurprisingly, Gianforte <a href="https://www.ktvh.com/news/montana-news/gianforte-adds-another-500k-to-campaign-kitty">held a large lead</a> over both his intra-party rivals in both primary and general election cash-on-hand on April 15. Gianforte led Olszewski $310,000 to $42,000 in primary cash, while Fox had just $21,000 to spend. Gianforte also had $546,000 in general election funds to Fox’s $161,000, while Olszewski had only $27,000. Things are far less lopsided on the Democratic side. Businesswoman Whitney Williams raised $127,000 from donors and self-funded another $50,000 during the last month, while Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney took in $62,000. Cooney, though, held a $173,000 to $138,000 cash-on-hand lead for the primary, while Williams led in general election funds $216,000 to $70,000. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1587503073000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587503073000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587503073000"> Tuesday, Apr 21, 2020 · 9:04:33 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">SC-01: In a blast-from-the-past, former Sen. Jim DeMint <a href="https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/former-u-s-sen-jim-demint-endorses-kathy-landing-in-south-carolinas-top-u-s/article_b1c200c4-83d4-11ea-88fe-2f0956ce575b.html">threw his support behind Mount Pleasant Town Councilwoman Kathy Landing</a> this week in the June 9 GOP primary to face freshman Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham. State Rep. Nancy Mace has most of the major endorsements in this race, including from House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and the anti-tax Club for Growth, and she had considerably more money than the rest of the GOP field. However, if there’s anyone who would defy party leaders and go his own way, it’s Jim DeMint. The hardline DeMint was elected to the House in 1998 and later the Senate in 2004, and he <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/03/jim-demint-the-most-hated-man-in-washington-104209">frequently fought his party’s leadership in both chambers</a>. The senator surprised everyone at the end of 2012 when he announced he was resigning to become president of the conservative think tank The Heritage Foundation, but that career change did not work out well for him. After years of internal fighting, Heritage’s <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/02/why-jim-demint-was-ousted-from-heritage-237876">board fired DeMint in 2017</a> for what its head described as “significant and worsening management issues that led to a breakdown of internal communications and cooperation.” Landing will hope that DeMint is still viewed favorably in this coastal South Carolina seat, though, because she’s badly trailing Mace in the money contest. Mace <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">outraised Landing $295,000 to $92,000</a> during the first quarter of 2020 (Landing self-funded another $8,000), and she ended March with an $806,000 to $344,000 cash-on-hand lead. Two other Republicans are running, and while they each had very little money, they could prevent anyone from taking the majority of the vote needed to avoid a June 23 runoff. Cunningham will have a tough task <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">defending this 53-40 Trump seat</a>, but he’ll have the resources he needs to put up a very serious fight. The freshman congressman hauled in $692,000 for the quarter, and he ended last month with a huge $2.46 million war chest. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1587505662000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587505662000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587505662000"> Tuesday, Apr 21, 2020 · 9:47:42 PM +00:00 · David Nir </a> <div class="live-update-content">Election Changes Please bookmark our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/1/14/1855760/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-primary-calendar">statewide 2020 primary calendar</a> and our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/2/17/1917521/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-calendar-of-key-elections-across-the-country">calendar of key downballot races</a>, both of which we're updating continually as changes are finalized. Georgia: Voting rights advocates <a href="https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/federal-lawsuit-demands-health-protections-for-georgia-primary-voters/FTsQWgIBWQz1rgsPADhsxI/">have filed a lawsuit</a> asking a federal judge to delay Georgia's June 9 primary at least until June 30, saying it would not be safe to conduct it any earlier. Plaintiffs are also asking for the implementation of a number of other safety measures, such as curbside voting, as well as the elimination of touchscreen voting machines, which they say pose a health hazard. Idaho: While Idaho officially says that its upcoming all-mail primary is taking place on May 19, Republican Gov. Brad Little <a href="https://coronavirus.idaho.gov/wp-content/uploads/sites/127/2020/04/proclamation_elections_040120.pdf#page=5">has issued an order</a> specifying that absentee ballots will be counted so long as they are received by June 2, with no deadline for postmarking them. To reflect this, we have updated <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/1/14/1855760/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-primary-calendar">our calendar</a> to recognize June 2 as the date of the primary. Michigan: Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, both Democrats, <a href="https://twitter.com/jonathanoosting/status/1252664263593938948">have appealed</a> a federal judge's ruling that <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/21/1938971/-Morning-Digest-Daily-Kos-Elections-presents-our-first-quarter-House-and-Senate-fundraising-roundups#3">delayed the candidate filing deadline</a> from April 21 to May 8 and halved the number of signatures candidates are required to submit. New York: Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo <a href="https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/politics/2020/04/20/new-york-voting-by-mail-to-be-allowed-for-june-elections-queens-borough-president-congress">will reportedly issue an executive order</a> to mail absentee ballots to all voters for New York's June 23 primaries and special elections. Previously, Cuomo <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/9/1935662/-Morning-Digest-Alaska-Supreme-Court-will-soon-decide-whether-GOP-governor-may-be-recalled#6">had waived the excuse requirement</a> to vote absentee. </div> </div> rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) DailyKosElections DKELiveDigests _1938198 Tue, 21 Apr 2020 13:00:11 +0000 Morning Digest: Daily Kos Elections presents our first quarter House and Senate fundraising roundups https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/21/1938971/-Morning-Digest-Daily-Kos-Elections-presents-our-first-quarter-House-and-Senate-fundraising-roundups The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar. <h4>Leading Off</h4> <a href="#1" name="1">●</a> 1Q Fundraising: Daily Kos Elections is pleased to present our first quarterly fundraising charts of the 2020 election cycle for both the <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">House</a> and the <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/20/1938848/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-Senate-fundraising-reports-roundup">Senate</a>. The fundraising period that just concluded, of course, ended in a way that no campaign could have anticipated when it began on New Year's Day. While the coronavirus pandemic has altered how candidates raise money—in-person events are a thing of the past—we don't yet know how it will impact bottom-line totals as candidates switch their focus to online fundraising. And given that stay-at-home measures were ordered toward the end of the quarter, it may be several more months before we really have insight. Now, to the numbers. Vulnerable House Democrats have been raising money all cycle at a pace that would have been unthinkable just a few short years ago, and our data shows that Democratic incumbents remain in very good shape. Seven Democrats holding competitive seats took in over $1 million for this quarter alone, while another five broke $900,000. An additional 12 Democrats who flipped a GOP-held seat in 2018 raised more than $600,000. rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) 1qfundraising AndrewRomanoff BretRichards CA-25 ChangeResearch ChristySmith ClubForGrowth CO-Sen Connecticut CoryGardner DailyKosElections DefendingMainStreet DKEMorningDigest Elections EricHolcomb GA-07 IA-04 IA-Sen IN-Gov J.D.Scholten JeremyTaylor JohnHickenlooper KY-04 LizCheney LorenaGarcia Michigan MikeGarcia Missouri MT-Sen NathanDeal NRCC Pennsylvania RandyFeenstra reneeunterman SenateMajorityPAC SteveDaines SteveKing StevenReeder Texas TheresaGreenfield ThomasMassie ToddMcMurtry WoodyMyers _1938971 Tue, 21 Apr 2020 12:00:35 +0000 Daily Kos Elections 1Q 2020 House fundraising reports roundup https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup Quarterly fundraising reports for federal candidates, covering the period from Jan. 1 to March 31, were due at the Federal Elections Commission on April 15 at midnight Eastern Time. Below is our chart of fundraising numbers for House candidates in all key races this cycle. (<a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938848/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-Senate-fundraising-reports-roundup" target="_blank">Click here for our companion chart for the Senate</a>.) That includes, among others: <ul> <li>Races we expect to be competitive in this year's general elections</li> <li>Open seats in otherwise safe districts that feature contested primaries</li> <li>Under-the-radar contests where a candidate raised or self-funded an unexpectedly high sum</li> <li>Races where incumbents potentially face a credible primary challenge</li> </ul> As always, all numbers are in thousands. The chart, and an explanation of each column, can be found below. You can also <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uWWBQwTLWTRLyvw60uGwcAwxknI7QmLYHLDD36ox-Ys/edit#gid=1790698027" target="_blank">view this chart in spreadsheet form</a> and <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uWWBQwTLWTRLyvw60uGwcAwxknI7QmLYHLDD36ox-Ys/edit#gid=1792043297" target="_blank">check out our separate chart</a> listing fundraising data for every House incumbent seeking re-election. <div class="dk-editor-embed center-block"> <div class="remove-embed-content">x</div> <a class="iframe_placeholder dk-x-embed" href="#" data-src="//docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uWWBQwTLWTRLyvw60uGwcAwxknI7QmLYHLDD36ox-Ys/pubhtml/sheet?headers=false&chrome=false&gid=1790698027&range=A1:I1" data-width="530" data-height="40" data-frameborder="0">Embedded Content</a></div> <div class="dk-editor-embed center-block"> <div class="remove-embed-content">x</div> <a class="iframe_placeholder dk-x-embed" href="#" data-src="//docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uWWBQwTLWTRLyvw60uGwcAwxknI7QmLYHLDD36ox-Ys/pubhtml/sheet?headers=false&chrome=false&gid=1790698027&range=A2:I550" data-width="530" data-height="600" data-frameborder="0">Embedded Content</a></div> <div></div> rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) 1Q2020 2020 DailyKosElections Elections Fundraising House _1938838 Mon, 20 Apr 2020 21:49:56 +0000 Daily Kos Elections 1Q 2020 Senate fundraising reports roundup https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/20/1938848/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-Senate-fundraising-reports-roundup Quarterly fundraising reports for federal candidates, covering the period from Jan. 1 to March 31, were due at the Federal Elections Commission on April 15 at midnight Eastern Time. Below is our chart of fundraising numbers for Senate candidates in all key races this cycle. (<a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup" target="_blank" title="">Click here for our companion chart for the House</a>.) That includes, among others, races we expect to be competitive in next year's general elections and open seats in otherwise safe states that feature contested primaries. As always, all numbers are in thousands. The chart, and an explanation of each column, can be found below. You can also <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uWWBQwTLWTRLyvw60uGwcAwxknI7QmLYHLDD36ox-Ys/edit#gid=21361040" target="_blank">view this chart in spreadsheet form</a> and <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uWWBQwTLWTRLyvw60uGwcAwxknI7QmLYHLDD36ox-Ys/edit#gid=2075671005" target="_blank">check out our separate chart</a> listing fundraising data for every Senate incumbent seeking re-election. <div class="dk-editor-embed center-block"> <div class="remove-embed-content">x</div> <a class="iframe_placeholder dk-x-embed" href="#" data-src="//docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uWWBQwTLWTRLyvw60uGwcAwxknI7QmLYHLDD36ox-Ys/pubhtml/sheet?headers=false&chrome=false&gid=21361040&range=A1:I1" data-width="530" data-height="40" data-frameborder="0">Embedded Content</a></div> <div class="dk-editor-embed center-block"> <div class="remove-embed-content">x</div> <a class="iframe_placeholder dk-x-embed" href="#" data-src="//docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uWWBQwTLWTRLyvw60uGwcAwxknI7QmLYHLDD36ox-Ys/pubhtml/sheet?headers=false&chrome=false&gid=21361040&range=A2:I100" data-width="530" data-height="600" data-frameborder="0">Embedded Content</a></div> rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) 1Q2020 2020 DailyKosElections Elections Fundraising Senate _1938848 Mon, 20 Apr 2020 21:49:51 +0000 Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/20 https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/20/1938193/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-4-20 Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. Please note: The Live Digest is a 2016 and 2020 Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy. Sign up <a href="http://dailykos.com/electionsdigest" target="_blank">here</a> to receive the Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest in your inbox each weekday. <div> <a name="update-1587397677000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587397677000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587397677000"> Monday, Apr 20, 2020 · 3:47:57 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">IN-Gov: The Democratic firm Change Research is out with a survey for Indy Politics that finds GOP Gov. Eric Holcomb <a href="http://indypolitics.org/poll-positions-9/">with a 45-25 lead</a> over Democrat Woody Myers. This is the first survey we’ve seen from this contest, which Daily Kos Elections rates as <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kHpGnR2VSAie2HYcF4R0-hv2Cc0EpdQ8Kkck51Hh2lk/edit#gid=411216535">Safe Republican</a>. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1587399088000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587399088000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587399088000"> Monday, Apr 20, 2020 · 4:11:28 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">IA-Sen: Senate Majority PAC has <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2020/04/20/politicos-election-forecast-updates-on-senate-house-races-786918">begun a new seven-figure ad buy</a> supporting businesswoman Theresa Greenfield in the June Democratic primary to take on GOP Sen. Joni Ernst. The <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bP7aWb73uN4&feature=youtu.be">TV spot</a> praises the candidate as “Iowa tough” and declares, “Greenfield will take on the big drug companies to lower prescription prices, force insurance companies to protect coverage for pre-existing conditions. And Greenfield will stand up to Wall Street to keep their hands off our Social Security.” </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1587399214000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587399214000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587399214000"> Monday, Apr 20, 2020 · 4:13:34 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">MT-Sen: GOP Sen. Steve Daines is out with a commercial <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJgDo9ZhKdI">praising his work</a> during the coronavirus pandemic. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1587415259000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587415259000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587415259000"> Monday, Apr 20, 2020 · 8:40:59 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">CO-Sen: On Saturday, former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff <a href="https://www.coloradopolitics.com/news/andrew-romanoff-wins-top-line-in-u-s-senate-primary-at-democrats-state-assembly/article_d46aeabc-81c4-11ea-8bb6-bf11f325544f.html">won the state Democratic Party convention</a>, which ensures him the top spot on the June primary ballot. Romanoff will face former Gov. John Hickenlooper, who did not compete at the party gathering, for the right to take on GOP Sen. Cory Gardner. Colorado allows candidates to reach the primary ballot either by turning in enough signatures or by taking at least 30% of the vote at their party convention. A few other Democrats competed with Romanoff at the convention, but because the former speaker took 86% of the vote, none of them advanced to the primary. In addition to Hickenlooper one other candidate, nonprofit head Lorena Garcia, pursued the signature route, but state election officials said Friday that she hadn’t turned in enough valid petitions. Garcia has announced that she’ll sue to get her name on the ballot, but she’s unlikely to make much of an impact on the contest even if she prevails in court: At the end of March, Garcia <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00691089/1400663/">reported having a negative amount of money</a> on-hand. For now, at least, the primary is a duel between Hickenlooper and Romanoff. Hickenlooper has the backing of the DSCC, and he ended March with a huge <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00716720/1399723/">$4.88 million</a> to <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00696724/1399608/">$806,000</a> cash-on-hand lead. Romanoff, for his part, is portraying himself as a progressive alternative to Hickenlooper, who ran for president last year as a moderate. Whoever prevails in June will start out the favorite against Gardner, who is running for re-election in a state that Hillary Clinton carried 48-43, but he won’t be going down without an expensive fight. The incumbent ended March <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00492454/1399797/">with $9.57 million in the bank</a>, and the former NRSC chair has the connections to haul in a lot more. Polls taken last year showed Hickenlooper <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Colorado#Polling_2">leading Gardner by double digits</a>, but we haven’t seen any fresh numbers since October. Major outside groups from both sides haven’t booked as much TV time as they have in many other Senate contests, but no one is acting like Gardner is doomed: The <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/15/1937287/-Morning-Digest-Senate-GOP-s-campaign-arm-reserves-33-million-in-TV-ads-across-these-seven-states">NRSC</a> and <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/23/1930462/-Mitch-McConnell-s-super-PAC-books-67-million-in-fall-TV-time-to-protect-GOP-s-Senate-majority">Senate Leadership Fund</a> recently reserved $6.4 million and $5.5 million to boost Gardner, while <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/30/1932722/-New-TV-reservations-foreshadow-an-expensive-fight-for-Iowa-s-Republican-senator">Senate Majority PAC</a> has booked $5.2 million to oppose him. (The DSCC, the other major Democratic Senate group, has not yet announced its first wave of TV reservations.) There’s little question that Gardner is the most vulnerable Republican in the Senate, though, and Daily Kos Elections rates this contest as <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/1kHpGnR2VSAie2HYcF4R0-hv2Cc0EpdQ8Kkck51Hh2lk/edit?usp=sharing">Lean Democratic</a>. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1587416875000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587416875000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587416875000"> Monday, Apr 20, 2020 · 9:07:55 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf </a> <div class="live-update-content">CA-25: The NRCC's <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a0ne4I7Ruwg" title="">latest TV ad</a> against Democrat Christy Smith finds Republicans once more attacking her over taxes. The spot claims Smith supported higher taxes and "gutting prop. 13," which has limited the annual increase in property taxes for more than four decades, and they imply that she's calling for tax hikes in response to the coronavirus-induced economic crisis without citing any evidence. The ad also claims Smith supported teacher layoffs, but Smith's campaign has disputed that assertion. Smith <a href="https://www.christyforcongress.org/get-the-facts" title="">contends that</a> when she was serving on the school board in Newhall during the Great Recession, the school district rehired every employee who had been given a layoff notice after lawmakers revised the state budget. Meanwhile, the anti-tax Club for Growth <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00487470/1401678/se" title="">is spending $187,000</a> on get-out-the-vote efforts on behalf of Republican Mike Garcia. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1587418336000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587418336000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587418336000"> Monday, Apr 20, 2020 · 9:32:16 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">IA-04: Defending Main Street, a super PAC set up to <a href="https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/defending-main-street-republicans">stop anti-establishment candidates from winning GOP primaries</a>, has announced that it will <a href="https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1252319945540673537">spend $100,000</a> on mail and get-out-the-vote efforts against white supremist Rep. Steve King in the June GOP primary. The group is <a href="http://mainstreetpac.com/republican-main-street-partnership-pac-announces-endorsement-of-seven-congressional-candidates-in-key-suburban-districts-2/">supporting state Sen. Randy Feenstra</a>, who is King’s main intra-party opponent. King has been a weak fundraiser for a long time, but he’s been in an especially bad place since he was stripped of his committee assignments last year <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/1/16/1826550/-Morning-Digest-House-Republicans-finally-move-to-rebuke-Steve-King-now-that-he-s-a-burden-to-them#1">after musing</a>, “White nationalist, white supremacist, Western civilization—how did that language become offensive?" Feenstra ended March with a wide <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00693663/1399942/">$416,000</a> to <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00373563/1400632/">$27,000</a> cash-on-hand lead over the incumbent, while another Republican, Army veteran Bret Richards, <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00694208/1397827/">had $83,000 to spend</a>. Two other Republicans, Woodbury County Supervisor Jeremy Taylor and real estate developer Steven Reeder, had less money than King, but their presence could have an impact on this race. In Iowa, a candidate needs to win at least 35% of the vote to win the primary outright, and it’s very possible King could take a plurality with a split field. If no one hits this threshold then nomination would be decided at a party convention. Whoever emerges with the GOP nod will take on Democrat J.D. Scholten, who lost the 2018 general election to King by a surprisingly close 50-47. Scholten ended March <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00650622/1398557/">with $715,000 on-hand</a> as he tries to flip this <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">61-34 Trump</a> seat. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1587418496000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587418496000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587418496000"> Monday, Apr 20, 2020 · 9:34:56 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf </a> <div class="live-update-content">GA-07: Former Gov. Nathan Deal <a href="https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/the-jolt-bimbo-eruption-gop-congressional-race/JvEhNinODI28OcLf1EFUUL/" title="">has endorsed state Sen. Renee Unterman</a> ahead of the Republican primary in June. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1587420413000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587420413000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587420413000"> Monday, Apr 20, 2020 · 10:06:53 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf </a> <div class="live-update-content">KY-04: High-ranking Wyoming GOP Rep. Liz Cheney donated to attorney Todd McMurtry's primary campaign against Republican Rep. Thomas Massie after the incumbent <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/30/1932459/-Morning-Digest-Trump-declares-war-on-GOP-congressman-who-held-up-coronavirus-bill" title="">pissed off all of his colleagues and Donald Trump</a> last month by using a procedural move to require all Congress members to travel back to D.C. to vote in-person on the $2 trillion coronavirus spending bill, but Cheney <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/candidates-racist-hashtag-spur-two-house-republicans-to-seek-return-of-donations" title="">has quickly found herself in an unsavory situation</a> after failing to properly vet McMurtry first. Cheney <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/candidates-racist-hashtag-spur-two-house-republicans-to-seek-return-of-donations" title="">is now asking for her money back</a> after 2019 tweets surfaced that showed McMurtry using bigoted language. In one tweet, McMurtry touted a blog post subtitled "A Very Brief Primer on Being Alt Right," which included a part about "telling the truth about transsexualism being a mental illness, or about the implication of IQ disparities between different racial groups." In another, he described how he's pushing back against the "demonization of white people" as "scapegoats for someone else's agenda," and another tweet found him bemoaning a "cartel-looking dude [...] playing a video of some wild Mexican birthday party at full volume” in an airport as a reason to "question unlimited immigration." As of Monday, McMurtry <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/17/us/politics/house-republicans-thomas-massie.html" title="">hasn't deleted or disavowed the tweets</a>, but he instead has attacked Massie for using them against him. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1587421038000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587421038000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587421038000"> Monday, Apr 20, 2020 · 10:17:18 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">Fundraising: Daily Kos Elections is pleased to present our first quarterly fundraising charts of the 2020 election cycle for both the <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup">House</a> and the <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/20/1938848/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-Senate-fundraising-reports-roundup">Senate</a>. The fundraising period that just concluded, of course, ended in a way that no campaign could have anticipated when it began on New Year's Day. While the coronavirus pandemic has altered how candidates raise money—in-person events are a thing of the past—we don't yet know how it will impact bottom-line totals as candidates switch their focus to online fundraising. And given that stay-at-home measures were ordered toward the end of the quarter, it may be several more months before we really have insight. Now, to the numbers. Vulnerable House Democrats have been raising money all cycle at a pace that would have been unthinkable just a few short years ago, and our data shows that Democratic incumbents remain in very good shape. Seven Democrats holding competitive seats took in over $1 million for this quarter alone, while another five broke $900,000. An additional 12 Democrats who flipped a GOP-held seat in 2018 raised more than $600,000. Republicans, meanwhile, have struggled in several of the districts that they lost last cycle and badly want to win back now. The most telling example of the lopsided fundraising battle may be in New York’s 19th District, a Hudson Valley seat that swung <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">from 52-46 Obama to 51-44 Trump</a>. Democrat Antonio Delgado unseated Republican John Faso in an expensive race last cycle, and the new incumbent raised $758,000 to defend his seat during the first quarter and ended March with $2.65 million on-hand. Fashion designer Ola Hawatmeh, who had by far the most money on the GOP side, took in just $59,000 from donors and self-funded another $201,000, and she had $254,000 in the bank. However, that was considerably better than the $14,000 that attorney and Army veteran Kyle Van De Water had on-hand. This isn’t the only competitive House district where Republicans are struggling. In Minnesota’s 2nd District, a suburban Twin Cities seat that narrowly voted for both Obama and Trump, freshman Democratic Rep. Angie Craig ended March with $2 million in the bank while Marine veteran Tyler Kistner led the GOP field with just shy of $100,000 on-hand. In Utah’s 4th District, which favored both Mitt Romney and Trump, Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams had $2.2 million on-hand compared to the $156,000 that former state party official Kathleen Anderson had to spend ahead of her crowded June primary. And in Washington’s 8th District, a seat that narrowly backed Obama and Hillary Clinton, Democratic Rep. Kim Schrier held a $1.87 million to $37,000 cash-on-hand lead over former Amazon project manager Jesse Jensen. Of course, the GOP does have some strong fundraisers. Republican Mike Garcia and Democrat Christy Smith each took in just over $1 million ahead of the May 12 special election for California’s 25th District, and Garcia held a $447,000 to $357,000 cash-on-hand. Republican Wesley Hunt also hauled in a hefty $874,000 in his bid against Democratic incumbent Lizzie Fletcher in Texas’ 7th District, but he only had $432,000 on-hand after winning his primary last month. Fletcher also took in a larger $1 million for the quarter, and she had a huge $2.69 million in the bank. Overall, though, the big picture for House Republicans remains bad in plenty of competitive seats. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy himself reportedly <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/28/house-gop-fundraising-2020-107572">told his GOP colleagues</a> at the end of January that Democrats "are kicking our ass" in fundraising, and our new data shows that remains just as true now as it did back then. The fundraising battle for the Senate is more even, though Team Blue still has some very strong candidates. Team Blue's fundraising all-star once again was Arizona's Mark Kelly, who outraised appointed Sen. Martha McSally $10.9 million to $6.3 million and had a $19.7 million to $10.2 million cash-on-hand lead. Democrats also outraised Republicans in Colorado, Kentucky, Maine, Montana, North Carolina, and South Carolina; Alaska’s Al Gross, who is seeking the Democratic nod while still remaining an independent, also outraised GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan. All these GOP incumbents still had more money than their opponents at the close of March, though. And for the third quarter in a row, the top GOP challenger, and the only one who outraised a Democratic incumbent, was Michigan's John James. James outpaced Democratic Sen. Gary Peters $4.8 million to $4 million, and Peters had just a small $8.8 million to $8.6 million cash-on-hand lead. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1587422656000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587422656000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587422656000"> Monday, Apr 20, 2020 · 10:44:16 PM +00:00 · David Nir </a> <div class="live-update-content">Election Changes Please bookmark our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/1/14/1855760/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-primary-calendar">statewide 2020 primary calendar</a> and our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/2/17/1917521/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-calendar-of-key-elections-across-the-country">calendar of key downballot races</a>, both of which we're updating continually as changes are finalized. • Connecticut: Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont <a href="https://www.ctnewsjunkie.com/archives/entry/20200417_lamont_moves_presidential_primary_to_aug._11/">has postponed Connecticut's presidential primary once again</a>, this time consolidating it with the state's regularly scheduled downballot primaries on Aug. 11. Previously, Lamont had delayed the presidential primaries from April 28 to June 2. • Michigan: A federal judge <a href="https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/judge-extends-filing-deadline-michigan-candidates-citing-coronavirus">has postponed Michigan's candidate filing deadline</a> from April 21 to May 8, halved the number of signatures candidates must gather, and ordered the secretary of state to establish procedures for campaigns to collect signatures electronically. This ruling makes Michigan the first state to delay its filing deadline for federal and state office due to the coronavirus pandemic. Under Michigan law, candidates for the U.S. Senate must ordinarily submit 15,000 signatures while U.S. House candidates must submit 1,000. Candidates for the state legislature can pay a filing fee in lieu of submitting signatures. • Missouri: The ACLU <a href="https://www.aclu.org/press-releases/aclu-and-missouri-voter-protection-coalition-file-lawsuit-ensure-all-missouri-voters">has sued the state of Missouri</a> on behalf of the NAACP and the League of Women Voters asking a judge to permit all voters to request absentee ballots due to the coronavirus pandemic. State officials <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/16/1937612/-Morning-Digest-Yet-another-poll-finds-Democrats-positioned-to-flip-GOP-held-Arizona-Senate-seat#3">have given wildly varying instructions</a> to voters on whether they may vote absentee: Republican Gov. Mike Parson has said he believes it's not permissible and some local jurisdictions agree, but others say voters are allowed to ask for absentee ballots on account of COVID-19, and still others are actively encouraging citizens to vote by mail. Republican Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft has refused to provide any guidance. • Pennsylvania: Officials in Allegheny County <a href="https://www.post-gazette.com/news/politics-local/2020/04/17/Allegheny-County-will-send-mail-in-ballot-applications-to-all-registered-voters/stories/202004170118">say they will send absentee ballot applications</a> to all voters ahead of Pennsylvania's June 2 primaries. The county <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938632/-Morning-Digest-Facing-ethics-probe-GOP-congressman-in-competitive-seat-spends-big-on-legal-fees#23">had previously asked</a> Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf for permission to conduct the primaries by mail but had not received a response from the governor. With 1.2 million residents, Allegheny is the second-largest county in the state and is also home to Pittsburgh. • Texas: <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/17/1937939/-Morning-Digest-Judge-allows-all-Texans-to-vote-absentee-by-mail-as-GOP-threatens-criminal-penalties">As he'd said he would</a>, state Judge Tim Sulak <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dBjcq60FmSM3Hrh8qNunVEj-KZ2JmCv_/view">has issued an injunction</a> allowing all Texans to vote absentee due to the coronavirus pandemic. Republicans have said <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/15/835515753/texas-judge-set-to-order-state-to-allow-all-voters-to-request-mail-in-ballots">they plan to appeal</a>. </div> </div> rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) DailyKosElections DKELiveDigests _1938193 Mon, 20 Apr 2020 13:00:07 +0000 Morning Digest: Facing ethics probe, GOP congressman in competitive seat spends big on legal fees https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/20/1938632/-Morning-Digest-Facing-ethics-probe-GOP-congressman-in-competitive-seat-spends-big-on-legal-fees The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar. <h4>Leading Off</h4> <a href="#1" name="1">●</a> AZ-06: GOP Rep. David Schweikert has become accustomed to easy re-election campaigns, but political shifts in his Scottsdale and North Phoenix constituency, as well as his continuing legal woes, threaten the GOP's hold on this seat. This district moved from <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">60-39 Romney to 52-42 Trump</a>, and even more alarming for Schweikert, Republican Martha McSally carried it by only a modest 51-47 <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17yr9mcAtuUdNjI9NEPYKxXsEldzzQ2ZaDwEAbnPRyS4/edit#gid=670824951">margin in the 2018 Senate race</a>. Schweikert has also been <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/9/6/1883868/-More-details-emerge-about-ethics-investigation-engulfing-vulnerable-Arizona-Republican">under investigation by the House Ethics Committee</a> since 2018 over allegations that, among things, he'd pressured his congressional staff to perform political activities for him. rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) AnnKirkpatrick Arizona AZ-01 AZ-02 AZ-06 AZ-Sen BeckyWalkerGrossman BrigidCallahanHarrison CliffBentz DailyKosElections DavidSchweikert Deaths DKEMorningDigest DoyelShamley EdMarkey Elections GA-14 HiralTipirneni JakeAuchincloss JaneDeeHull JasonAtkinson JesseMermell JimmyCrumpacker JustinLivingston KarlGentles Kentucky KnuteBuehler LaborersInternationalUnionofNorthAmerica MA-04 MA-Sen MarkKelly MarthaMcSally MattLaughridge Nevada NJ-02 NolanReidhead NoranRuden NY-15 OR-02 Pennsylvania PhilKnight RepublicanLeadershipforOregon SamelysLopez ShayStautz SouthCarolina StephanieRimmer TiffanyShedd TomOHalleran Utah Virginia Wisconsin WorkingFamiliesParty _1938632 Mon, 20 Apr 2020 12:00:26 +0000 Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/17 https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/17/1936266/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-4-17 Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. Please note: The Live Digest is a 2016 and 2020 Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy. Sign up <a href="http://dailykos.com/electionsdigest" target="_blank">here</a> to receive the Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest in your inbox each weekday. <div><a name="update-1587139637000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587139637000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587139637000">Friday, Apr 17, 2020 · 4:07:17 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> NJ-02: On Thursday, the Laborers’ International Union of North America <a href="https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/laborers-endorse-harrison-for-congress/">endorsed political science professor Brigid Callahan Harrison</a> in the July Democratic primary to take on Republican Rep. Jeff Van Drew. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587139908000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587139908000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587139908000">Friday, Apr 17, 2020 · 4:11:48 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> Arizona: Candidate filing closed April 6<a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/6/4/1855760/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-primary-calendar"> for Arizona’s Aug. 4 primary</a>, and the state has a<a href="https://apps.arizona.vote/electioninfo/elections/2020-primary-election/federal/2439/17/0"> list of candidates available here</a>. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587141023000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587141023000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587141023000">Friday, Apr 17, 2020 · 4:30:23 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> AZ-Sen: While it looked at the start of the cycle that both parties could have competitive primaries for the special election for the final two years of the late Sen. John McCain’s term, that didn’t happen. Republican incumbent Martha McSally, who was appointed to the Senate weeks <a href="https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=4&year=2018&f=0&off=3&elect=0&class=1">after her 50-48 loss</a> to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema last cycle in the state’s other seat, only faces intra-party opposition from underfunded businessman Daniel McCarthy. Retired astronaut Mark Kelly, who is the husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords, has no opponent in his Democratic primary. Whoever wins in November will be up for a full six-year term in 2022. Kelly has been one of Team Blue’s strongest fundraisers, and he ended March with a <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/15/1937539/-Another-poll-finds-Arizona-Democrat-well-ahead-in-Senate-race">$19.7 million to $10.2 million cash-on-hand lead</a> over McSally. Kelly has also led in every poll released this year, with the exception of one January McSally internal. While Kelly’s in a strong position, Arizona is still a difficult state for Team Blue. Donald Trump <a href="https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=4&year=2016&f=0&off=0&elect=0">carried Arizona 48-45 in 2016</a>, and Sinema only narrowly beat McSally two years later in a good year for her party. Major outside groups are also preparing to spend heavily here: The NRSC and Senate Leadership Fund recently reserved <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/15/1937287/-Morning-Digest-Senate-GOP-s-campaign-arm-reserves-33-million-in-TV-ads-across-these-seven-states">$5.7 million</a> and <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/23/1930462/-Mitch-McConnell-s-super-PAC-books-67-million-in-fall-TV-time-to-protect-GOP-s-Senate-majority">$9.2 million</a> on TV ads to aid McSally, while Kelly’s allies at Senate Majority PAC <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/30/1932722/-New-TV-reservations-foreshadow-an-expensive-fight-for-Iowa-s-Republican-senator">booked $15.7 million</a>. (The DSCC, the other major Democratic Senate group, has not yet announced its first wave of TV reservations.) We expect the Grand Canyon State to be fiercely contested up and down the ballot, and Daily Kos Elections rates this contest as a <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/1kHpGnR2VSAie2HYcF4R0-hv2Cc0EpdQ8Kkck51Hh2lk/edit?usp=sharing">Tossup</a>. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587142223000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587142223000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587142223000">Friday, Apr 17, 2020 · 4:50:23 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> AZ-01: Democratic Rep. Tom O'Halleran is seeking his third term in a northeastern Arizona seat that both <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">Mitt Romney and Donald Trump narrowly carried</a>, but Republicans haven’t managed to win this seat since before the 2012 round of redistricting. Three Republicans are running this time, but the only one who looks like she’ll have the resources to compete is farmer Tiffany Shedd. Shedd ran in the 2018 primary and <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=832844">took a distant third place with 19% of the vote</a> (the winner, perennial candidate Wendy Rogers, went on to <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=832816">lose to O'Halleran 54-46</a>), but this time, she has the support of House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy. Shedd ended March <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00657155/1397908/">with a $180,000 war chest</a> while her two primary foes, attorney Nolan Reidhead and former Apache County Supervisor Doyel Shamley, had <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00722694/1395615/">$30,000</a> and <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00739862/1399502/">$3,000</a> to spend, respectively. O'Halleran, who served in the state legislature as a moderate Republican, does face a challenge on his left from former Flagstaff City Councilor Eva Putzova. Putzova, though, has struggled to attract donors and outside support, and O'Halleran ended last month with a <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00582890/1399607/">$1.08 million</a> to <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00694091/1394069/">$40,000</a> cash-on-hand lead. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587143052000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587143052000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587143052000">Friday, Apr 17, 2020 · 5:04:12 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> AZ-02: This Tucson-area seat swung from <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">50-48 Romney to 50-45 Clinton</a>, and Republicans don’t seem to be making much of an effort to take it back after badly losing it last cycle. Four Republicans filed to challenge Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, who ended the quarter <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00651042/1400001/">with $690,000 on-hand</a> and only faces minor intra-party opposition. Businessman Noran Ruden, who has self-funded almost his entire campaign, ended March with <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00734087/1396824/">$156,000 on-hand</a>. Former University of Arizona lobbyist Shay Stautz, who has also been doing some self-funding, has been running since last summer, but he had a smaller<a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00710582/1399970/"> $114,000 war chest</a>. The other two candidates had less than $30,000 in the bank. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587151084000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587151084000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587151084000">Friday, Apr 17, 2020 · 7:18:04 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> AZ-06: GOP Rep. David Schweikert has become accustomed to easy re-election campaigns, but political shifts in his Scottsdale and North Phoenix constituency, as well as his continuing legal woes, threaten the GOP’s hold on this seat. This district moved from <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">60-39 Romney to 52-42 Trump</a>, and even more alarming for Schweikert, Republican Martha McSally carried it by only a modest 51-47 <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17yr9mcAtuUdNjI9NEPYKxXsEldzzQ2ZaDwEAbnPRyS4/edit#gid=670824951">margin in the 2018 Senate race</a>. Schweikert has also been <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/9/6/1883868/-More-details-emerge-about-ethics-investigation-engulfing-vulnerable-Arizona-Republican">under investigation by the House Ethics Committee</a> since 2018 over allegations that, among things, he’d pressured his congressional staff to perform political activities for him. While the ethics probe hasn’t made much news in recent months, it’s continued to harm the congressman’s campaign’s finances. Schweikert <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00540617/1398424/">raised $216,000</a> during the first three months of 2020 but spent $269,000, and the Arizona Republic reports that <a href="https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/04/16/hiral-tipirneni-padded-her-cash-lead-over-rep-david-schweikert-arizona/5142086002/">$181,000 of that</a> went to legal fees. This is <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/10/17/1892955/-Morning-Digest-Kansas-lawmaker-who-quit-GOP-over-its-transphobia-will-run-for-Senate-as-a-Democrat#8">not a new problem for the incumbent</a>, and he ended March with just $226,000 to spend. While Schweikert avoided a primary challenge, he’s in for an expensive re-election campaign. The <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/1/29/1914711/-Morning-Digest-Ardent-Trump-ally-will-reportedly-challenge-GOP-senator-in-Georgia-special-election#19">DCCC is backing physician Hiral Tipirneni</a>, who came unexpectedly close to winning the neighboring and redder 8th District in a 2018 special election. Tipirneni has been a strong fundraiser, and she ended the quarter with <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00649897/1398478/" title="">$1.21 million in the bank</a>. The other three Democrats in the race are businesswoman Stephanie Rimmer; 2018 nominee Anita Malik, who <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/CandidateDetail.html?CandidateID=86977">lost to Schweikert 55-45</a>; and public relations executive Karl Gentles. However, none of this trio had so much as $100,000 on-hand at the end of March. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587155551000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587155551000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587155551000">Friday, Apr 17, 2020 · 8:32:31 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> MA-Sen, MA-04: Massachusetts’ highest court issued a ruling on Friday that <a href="https://www.wbur.org/news/2020/04/17/sjc-rules-signature-collection-ballot-case" title="">cut in half the number of signatures needed</a> to appear on the September primary, a move that comes as very welcome news to Democratic Sen. Ed Markey’s re-election campaign as well as most of the candidates running for the open 4th Congressional District. The Supreme Judicial Court’s verdict means that Senate candidates are now required to submit 5,000 valid signatures by the May 5 deadline, while U.S. House contenders need to turn in 1,000 petitions. The court’s decision said that this ruling, which came in response to a lawsuit by several candidates running for office in Massachusetts, was “limited to the primary election in these extraordinary circumstances” and “does not affect the minimum signature requirements for the general election this year or for the primary elections in any other year.” Social distancing had made it incredibly difficult for candidates to collect signatures, and it threatened to derail Markey’s re-election campaign. Markey’s team announced on April 7 that the senator <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/14/1936964/-Morning-Digest-Progressives-flip-Wisconsin-Supreme-Court-seat-held-by-Scott-Walker-appointee#20">only had 7,000 of the 10,000 signatures</a> that were required until Friday’s ruling; his primary opponent, Rep. Joe Kennedy III, said he’d already collected 15,000 petitions. In the crowded Democratic contest to succeed Kennedy, only two candidates, Newton City Councilors <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/10/1935982/-Morning-Digest-Two-years-after-upset-win-AOC-faces-a-well-funded-primary-challenge-at-home#18">Jake Auchincloss</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/TedNesi/status/1249819403979497479">Becky Walker Grossman</a>, said they had turned in the necessary 2,000 signatures. However, after Friday’s court ruling reduced this number by half, former Alliance for Business Leadership head Jesse Mermell <a href="https://twitter.com/TedNesi/status/1249819403979497479">said she had</a> “well over the 1,000 signatures required.” P.S. The ruling halving the number of signatures required to make the primary ballot also applies to candidates for state and county offices. The court also moved the filing deadline for these local candidates from April 28 to May 5, which is the same as the federal filing deadline. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587156295000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587156295000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587156295000">Friday, Apr 17, 2020 · 8:44:55 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> GA-14: In his <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTz-mS9Lc5U">first ad</a> ahead of the June GOP primary for this safely red seat, auto dealer Matt Laughridge uses a <a href="https://twitter.com/cam_joseph/status/1250908901354209282">fake picture of Joe Biden</a> standing in front of Saint Basil's Cathedral wearing a facemask and a Soviet-era hat to attack “socialist Democrats.” Weirdly, the narrator twice pronounces the candidate’s name as “Laugh-ridge,” but Laughridge pronounces his own name as “Lof-ridge” at the very end. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587157762000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587157762000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587157762000">Friday, Apr 17, 2020 · 9:09:22 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> OR-02: Republican Leadership for Oregon is <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00737361/1401522/se">spending $45,000 on a TV ad</a> supporting 2018 gubernatorial nominee Knute Buehler in the May 19 GOP primary, and while we don’t have a copy yet, there’s probably a lot more advertising in store from this new super PAC. The group’s <a href="https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1251162310137147400">largest donor is Nike co-founder Phil Knight</a>, who has <a href="https://www.wweek.com/news/2020/04/16/phil-knight-jumps-into-oregons-hotly-contested-second-congressional-district-gop-primary/">contributed $100,000 so far</a>, while it received another $75,000 from two other businessmen. This is far from the first time that Knight, who is Oregon’s wealthiest resident, has thrown down his own money to aid Buehler. Knight donated a total of $2.5 million to Buehler’s gubernatorial bid, as well as another $1 million to the Republican Governors Association: These investments made Knight the largest single contributor in Oregon political history, but Buehler <a href="https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=41&year=2018&f=0&off=5&elect=0">still lost 50-44</a> to Democratic Gov. Kate Brown. This time, Buehler is running for a reliably red open seat in the eastern part of the state, and he ended March with more money in his war chest than any of his primary foes. Buehler held a <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00730507/1399016/">$468,000</a> to <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00731943/1399487/">$301,000</a> cash-on-hand lead over businessman Jimmy Crumpacker, while state Sen. Cliff Bentz had <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00725465/1397437/">$238,000</a> to spend (both Crumpacker and Bentz have been self-funding a portion of their campaigns). Former state Sen. Jason Atkinson had a <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00726786/1400059/">mere $30,000 available</a>, while Bend City Councilor Justin Livingston had <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00740811/1401006/">just over $3,000</a>. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587158856000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587158856000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587158856000">Friday, Apr 17, 2020 · 9:27:36 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> NY-15: The Working Families Party has <a href="https://www.cityandstateny.com/articles/politics/campaigns-elections/wfp-backs-newcomer-samelys-l%C3%B3pez-open-south-bronx-house-seat">endorsed activist Samelys López</a> in the crowded June Democratic primary for this safely blue seat. The WFP has long been a force in New York politics, but several unions have <a href="https://www.cityandstateny.com/articles/politics/campaigns-elections/unions-in-out-working-families-party.html">withdrawn support in recent years</a>. López’s performance in this Bronx seat could therefore serve as an important test of how much influence the WFP has in local elections. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587165334000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587165334000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587165334000">Friday, Apr 17, 2020 · 11:15:34 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> Deaths: Former Arizona Gov. Jane Dee Hull, a Republican who served from 1997 until 2003, <a href="https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2020/04/17/former-arizona-governor-jane-dee-hull-and-her-husband-terry-hull-have-died/5152662002/">died Thursday at the age of 84</a>. Hull was the second woman to serve as the state’s governor, as well as the first to win the post in an election. During her time in office, Hull set up the state’s version of the federal Children’s Health Insurance Program and pushed for a successful sales tax increase to fund education. Hull <a href="https://www.eacourier.com/copper_era/jane-hull-left-her-mark-on-arizona-during-26-year-career/article_efda559a-80ec-11ea-a1d1-e329f54330c6.html">also signed legislation</a> that repealed the state’s ban on sodomy and cohabitation, saying, “I choose not to judge the conduct of others, even when I know others will judge me for signing this bill.” Hull got her start in office when she was elected to the state House in 1978, and she soon earned a reputation as an ardent conservative. As majority leader, Hull was also the first Republican to call for GOP Gov. Evan Mecham to resign as the legislature prepared to impeach him for misuse of public funds and obstruction of justice. Mecham didn’t listen, though, and Hull’s colleagues removed him from office in 1988. In Arizona, both then and now, the secretary of state is next in line for governor, and Democrat <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/9/16/1570663/-Morning-Digest-This-ad-from-Missouri-Democrat-Jason-Kander-is-one-of-the-best-we-ve-ever-seen#21">Rose Mofford was elevated to the governorship</a>. Hull went on to become the first woman to serve as speaker, and she was in charge in 1991 when several members were <a href="https://kjzz.org/content/290916/maricopas-former-top-prosecutor-reflects-azscam-25-years-later">caught taking bribes from fake casino operators</a> in a scandal nicknamed “AzScam.” Hull <a href="https://www.eacourier.com/copper_era/jane-hull-left-her-mark-on-arizona-during-26-year-career/article_efda559a-80ec-11ea-a1d1-e329f54330c6.html">pressured these representatives to resign</a> by taking away their committee assignments, and she told the ones who wouldn’t quit not to appear on the House floor. Hull also <a href="https://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/ascent-of-a-woman-6423124">shed her old conservative reputation</a> during her time as a legislative leader, and she even pushed through tax increases. Hull would also say in 1997 about her views on abortion, “Actually, both sides dislike me, probably pretty intently.” Hull resigned in 1993 saying she was tired of the “meanness” in the legislature, and she soon launched a bid for secretary of state. Hull <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=249589">won an unexpectedly close primary</a> the following year but decisively prevailed in November, and her victory made her the first Republican to hold this office <a href="https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2020/04/17/former-arizona-governor-jane-dee-hull-and-her-husband-terry-hull-have-died/5152662002/">in more than 60 years</a>. But while Hull was elected to what was usually a low-profile job, she was thrust into the spotlight in 1997 when GOP Gov. Fife Symington was convicted for bank fraud. Symington resigned, and for the second time in a decade, the secretary of state became governor. Unlike Mofford, Hull sought a full term as governor. While several Republicans <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1997/09/05/us/once-again-arizona-secretary-state-suddenly-thrust-into-job-governor.html">considered challenging her for the nomination</a> before she was sworn in, Hull decisively won both the primary and general election: Women <a href="https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2020/04/17/former-arizona-governor-jane-dee-hull-and-her-husband-terry-hull-have-died/5152662002/">won all the other state’s top posts</a> in 1998, a first in American history. Hull also made waves when she <a href="https://www.eacourier.com/copper_era/jane-hull-left-her-mark-on-arizona-during-26-year-career/article_efda559a-80ec-11ea-a1d1-e329f54330c6.html">endorsed George W. Bush for president</a> over home state Sen. John McCain, whom she’d often come into conflict with. The state constitution’s two term limit prevented Hull from running again in 2002 even though she’d only served part of one term, but she <a href="https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2020/04/17/former-arizona-governor-jane-dee-hull-and-her-husband-terry-hull-have-died/5152662002/">soon made it clear</a> she was done with politics anyway: When Hull was asked in 2005 if she’d run again she responded, “Oh, God, no!” </div> </div> rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) DailyKosElections DKELiveDigests _1936266 Fri, 17 Apr 2020 13:00:15 +0000 Morning Digest: Judge allows all Texans to vote absentee by mail as GOP threatens criminal penalties https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/17/1937939/-Morning-Digest-Judge-allows-all-Texans-to-vote-absentee-by-mail-as-GOP-threatens-criminal-penalties The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar. <h4>Leading Off</h4> <a href="#1" name="1">●</a> Texas: A state judge said on Wednesday afternoon that he'll issue an order <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2020/04/15/texas-judge-will-issue-order-could-greatly-expand-mail-voting/" title="">allowing all Texans to vote absentee</a> due to the coronavirus pandemic, less than an hour after the attorney general's office <a href="https://twitter.com/srl/status/1250508771190849536">threatened criminal prosecution</a> for groups recommending voters concerned about contracting the virus request absentee ballots. rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) Alaska americaspac AndrewRomanoff Arizona BillHagerty CA-25 CalCunningham CaseyAskar CO-03 CO-06 CO-Sen Colorado CongressionalLeadershipFund DailyKosElections DanForest DavidHill DianeMitschBush DKEMorningDigest Elections FL-19 GA-06 IA-Sen IL-14 JamesIacino JanetBarresi JasonCrow jimoberweis JohnHickenlooper JohnJames JoniErnst.MikeFranken JosephSilk KarenHandel KendraHorn LaurenBoebert LaurenUnderwood Louisiana LucyMcBath MarkwayneMullin MI-Sen MikeParson MO-Gov NC-Gov NC-Sen NicoleGalloway NorthStarOpinionResearch NRCC OK-02 OK-05 Oklahoma PublicPolicyPolling richarduihlein RoyCooper ScottTipton StephanieBice SteveHouse TerryNeese Texas ThomTillis TN-Sen TomTiffany WI-07 Wisconsin _1937939 Fri, 17 Apr 2020 12:00:09 +0000 Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/16 https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/16/1936263/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-4-16 Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. Please note: The Live Digest is a 2016 and 2020 Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy. Sign up <a href="http://dailykos.com/electionsdigest" target="_blank">here</a> to receive the Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest in your inbox each weekday. <div><a name="update-1587053493000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587053493000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587053493000">Thursday, Apr 16, 2020 · 4:11:33 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> IA-Sen, MI-Sen: Politico reports that the conservative Americas PAC, which is funded by megadonor Richard Uihlein, has <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2020/04/16/how-outside-groups-are-raising-and-spending-their-money-786916">booked TV time for mid-May</a> in two Midwestern Senate contests. The group will reportedly spend $1.3 million to aid Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst and $894,000 to help Republican John James in Michigan. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587056984000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587056984000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587056984000">Thursday, Apr 16, 2020 · 5:09:44 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> Colorado: The deadline to turn in signatures to make <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/6/4/1855760/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-primary-calendar">Colorado’s June 30 primary</a> was March 17, and the state has a <a href="https://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/vote/primaryPetitionCandidates.html">list of contenders who submitted enough petitions</a> here. However, candidates can also reach the primary ballot by competing at their party conventions, also known as assemblies, and many of them chose to go with this route instead in large part because of the high cost of gathering signatures. Democrats in CO-03 and Republicans in CO-06 recently held their virtual assemblies, and we’ll be running down the results in our House section. The state Democratic Party will also hold their statewide convention on Saturday where they’ll endorse a candidate to take on GOP Sen. Cory Gardner, which we’ll talk about in our CO-Sen item below. First, some notes about the convention rules. Contenders need to <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/7/16/1872228/-Want-to-get-on-the-ballot-in-Colorado-Door-No-1-and-Door-No-2-are-both-fraught-with-risk">win the support of at least 30% of the delegates</a> to advance to June, and whoever takes the most support will be listed first on the primary ballot. Candidates have the option to both turn in signatures and take part in the convention, but doing so still doesn't offer a guarantee: If a candidate <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/1/17/1733409/-Morning-Digest-Why-are-some-Michigan-Democrats-tepid-on-Gretchen-Whitmer-s-campaign-for-governor#26">takes less than 10% of the vote</a> at the convention, then their campaign is over no matter how many signatures they turn in. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587057401000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587057401000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587057401000">Thursday, Apr 16, 2020 · 5:16:41 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> CO-Sen: Colorado Democrats will <a href="https://www.coloradodems.org/the-2020-state-assembly-and-convention/">hold their virtual state party convention</a> on Saturday, but unlike in past years, there shouldn’t be much suspense about how this gathering will go. Former Gov. John Hickenlooper, who has the support of national Democrats in the contest to take on GOP Sen. Cory Gardner, announced in late March that he’d <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/17/1928090/-Morning-Digest-Ohio-cancels-in-person-voting-despite-judge-denying-request-to-delay-Tuesday-primary#12">skip the convention</a> after the state verified that he’d submitted enough petitions. That move left former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, who <a href="https://www.cpr.org/2020/04/15/trish-zornio-is-out-of-colorados-democratic-primary-senate-race/">overwhelmingly beat Hickenlooper</a> at the pre-convention party caucuses earlier in March, as the only well-funded candidate competing at the assembly, so it would be a massive surprise if he doesn’t win this weekend. A <a href="https://www.cpr.org/2020/04/15/trish-zornio-is-out-of-colorados-democratic-primary-senate-race/">few other Democrats</a> are also competing at the convention including nonprofit director Lorena Garcia; Stephany Rose Spaulding, who was the <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Stephany_Rose_Spaulding">2018 nominee in the safely red 5th Congressional District</a>; and businesswoman Michelle Ferrigno Warren. It’s possible that some of them will do well enough at the party gathering to make it to the primary, but <a href="https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/senate/CO/2020/">they’ve each raised very little money</a> and would struggle to gain traction in June. Another long-shot candidate, scientist Trish Zornio announced Wednesday that she was <a href="https://www.cpr.org/2020/04/15/trish-zornio-is-out-of-colorados-democratic-primary-senate-race/">suspending her campaign</a>. Hickenlooper <a href="https://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/vote/primaryPetitionCandidates.html">appears to be the only Democrat</a> who made the ballot by turning in enough signatures. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587058820000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587058820000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587058820000">Thursday, Apr 16, 2020 · 5:40:20 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> CO-03: All three Democrats running to take on GOP Rep. Scott Tipton <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/8/1935319/-Morning-Digest-Why-Richmond-Virginia-has-one-of-the-country-s-strangest-electoral-systems#16">chose to compete at Tuesday’s virtual party convention</a> rather than collect signatures, and two of them <a href="https://www.coloradopolitics.com/news/premium/tipton-challenger-iacino-wins-top-line-at-assembly-faces-mitsch-bush-in-primary/article_f5ac05ba-7f41-11ea-9f61-63ed0743e05e.html">advanced to the June primary</a>. Businessman James Iacino won the top spot on the ballot by winning the support of 49% of the delegates, while 2018 nominee Diane Mitsch Bush was just behind with 48%. The third candidate, climate activist Root Routledge was far back with just 3%. Whoever wins the nomination this summer will be in for a difficult race in this seat in the western part of the state. The district moved from <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">52-46 Romney to 52-40 Trump</a>, and Tipton <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=833165">beat Mitsch Bush 52-44 last cycle</a>. Tipton himself does <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/12/10/1904571/-Morning-Digest-Grandson-of-George-H-W-Bush-joins-GOP-primary-for-swingy-Texas-House-seat#17">face an intra-party primary challenge</a> from Lauren Boebert, who runs a restaurant called Shooters Grill in Rifle where staffers openly carry firearms, but she doesn’t look like much of a threat. Tipton ended March with a huge <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00470757/1398033/">$626,000</a> to <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00728238/1399128/">$26,000</a> cash-on-hand lead, and because he <a href="https://www.coloradopolitics.com/quick-hits/scott-tipton-qualifies-for-gop-primary-ballot-by-petition-in-bid-for-6th-term/article_63361f6c-7830-11ea-9591-ef4231065ef1.html">successfully turned in enough signatures</a> to reach the ballot, he can survive all but the worst performance at Friday’s party assembly. Tipton also received Donald Trump’s endorsement in December. The money gap isn’t as stark on the Democratic side. Mitsch Bush ended March with a <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00707638/1398098/">$478,000</a> to<a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00723338/1397616/"> $361,000</a> cash-on-hand lead over Iacino, who has done some self-funding. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587059633000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587059633000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587059633000">Thursday, Apr 16, 2020 · 5:53:53 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> CO-06: Former state party CEO Steve House won last week’s GOP party assembly by <a href="https://www.coloradopolitics.com/quick-hits/steve-house-wins-gop-nod-to-take-on-us-rep-jason-crow/article_41ca68b4-7840-11ea-a968-3312920abb2d.html">easily defeating an unheralded opponent</a>, and because no one gathered signatures, this result means that House will be Team Red’s nominee against freshman Democratic Rep. Jason Crow. However, House is in for a very uphill battle in a suburban Denver seat that has been rapidly moving to the left. This district went from <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">52-47 Obama to 50-41 Clinton</a>, and Crow unseated GOP incumbent Mike Coffman last cycle <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=833168">by a wide 54-43 margin</a>. House doesn’t seem interested in winning over the voters who have turned against the GOP in recent years, though, since he recently held a virtual event with a doctor who has a long track record of <a href="https://www.denverpost.com/2020/04/07/coronavirus-steve-house-congress-victory/">circulating conspiracy theories</a> about the coronavirus pandemic. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587062488000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587062488000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587062488000">Thursday, Apr 16, 2020 · 6:41:28 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> NC-Sen, NC-Gov: The Democratic firm Public Policy Polling is out with a new look at its home state of North Carolina, and it has <a href="https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/NCResultsApril2020.pdf">overall good news for Team Blue</a>. Democrat Cal Cunningham holds a 47-40 lead over GOP Sen. Thom Tillis, which is up from <a href="https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrats-lead-by-at-least-4-in-4-gop-held-senate-seats/">Cunningham’s 46-41 edge in late February</a>. PPP also shows Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper defeating Republican Dan Forest by a wide 50-36 margin, which is a big change from the 45-41 lead Cooper posted <a href="https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/PPP_Release_NC_62019.pdf">the last time the pollster</a> surveyed this race in June. This sample shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by a narrow 48-47 margin. This is the second poll we’ve seen from North Carolina since the early March primaries. Earlier this week, the conservative Civitas Institute released numbers from the GOP firm Harper Polling that <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/16/1937612/-Morning-Digest-Yet-another-poll-finds-Democrats-positioned-to-flip-GOP-held-Arizona-Senate-seat#8">showed Tillis ahead 38-34</a> while Trump was winning by a wide 49-42 margin. Harper, though, found Cooper up 50-33, which is very similar to PPP’s numbers. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587069202000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587069202000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587069202000">Thursday, Apr 16, 2020 · 8:33:22 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> IL-14: National Republicans badly want to beat freshman Democratic Rep. Lauren Underwood, but they’re stuck with a nominee they actively tried to defeat in last month’s Illinois primary. Politico reported on Thursday that the Congressional Leadership Fund, which is the largest spender on House races among outside groups on the Republican side, <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2020/04/16/how-outside-groups-are-raising-and-spending-their-money-786916">financed a group called Illinois Conservatives PAC</a> that ran ads against state Sen. Jim Oberweis in the 14th Congressional District. The CLF <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00504530/1400746//sb/ALL">spent $911,000</a> to fund <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/12/1926592/-Morning-Digest-With-some-racism-and-homophobia-Darrell-Issa-comes-one-step-closer-to-a-comeback#7">commercials that declared</a>, “Higher taxes, personally attacking President Donald Trump, and comparing pro-lifers to terrorists, that's the real Jim Oberweis.” This expensive effort fell just short: Oberweis <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=863335">defeated fellow state Sen. Sue Rezin 26-23</a>, a margin of just under 1,500 votes. While the CLF has gotten involved in GOP primaries to protect incumbents, it’s other very unusual to see it intervene in an intra-party battle. However, if there’s one Republican that national Republicans rightly should want far away from a general election ballot, it’s Jim Oberweis. The wealthy dairy magnate has unsuccessfully run for the House or statewide office a <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/18/1928713/-Over-a-decade-after-high-profile-Illinois-congressional-loss-GOP-nominates-Jim-Oberweis-once-more">grand total of six times</a> beginning with his 2002 primary defeat to take on Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin, but his most high-profile defeat came in 2008 for a previous version of this seat. Oberweis lost the special election to succeed former House Speaker Dennis Hastert in a historically red distinct by a <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=403895">52.5-47.5 margin</a> against Democrat Bill Foster, and it took no time at all for Republicans to place the blame on him. Oberweis and Foster had won their primaries for the regular November contest months before the special was decided, but Republicans reportedly <a href="http://swingstateproject.com/diary/tag/217/page/4">tried to convince their nominee to drop out</a>. Then-state Rep. Aaron Schock, who was the GOP nominee for a congressional seat to the south, loudly threw Oberweis under the ice cream truck following his defeat, declaring, “Anybody in Illinois who knows Jim Oberweis knows that was not a referendum on the Republican Party; it was a referendum on Jim Oberweis.” Schock, whose own congressional career <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/3/6/1840059/-Prosecutors-just-let-this-disgraced-Illinois-Republican-off-easy-We-don-t">would self-destruct the next decade</a>, also volunteered that when it came to Oberweis, “The people that knew him best, liked him least.” Oberweis didn’t listen, and he <a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=343142">lost to Foster again 58-42</a>. The CLF’s staff should know Oberweis quite well at this point, and like him they don’t. But while it’s too late to deny Oberweis the GOP nod (or <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/18/1928713/-Over-a-decade-after-high-profile-Illinois-congressional-loss-GOP-nominates-Jim-Oberweis-once-more">convince him to run for Congress in Florida</a>), they don’t need to spend to prop him up. Indeed, the CLF announced last week that it had <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/10/1935982/-Morning-Digest-Two-years-after-upset-win-AOC-faces-a-well-funded-primary-challenge-at-home#23">reserved $43 million for fall TV ads</a> in House races across the nation, but it’s first wave of bookings <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HKLPJvY6M4OBXZW_IykRzwSkI_GmErUeEV7PttkDtcc/edit#gid=2047965155">did not include this exurban Chicago district</a>. Still, this <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">49-45 Trump seat</a> may just be too tempting a target for Team Red even with an unwelcome nominee, and it’s very possible that CLF or its allies will end up airing ads against Underwood. And for all of Oberweis’ considerable flaws, he may have the personal resources to fend for himself. Oberweis has invested millions into his past failed campaigns, and he <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00696872/1397559/">self-funded a total of $1.1 million</a> for this race through the end of March. However, he’s raised a grand total of $558,000 from people who aren’t named Jim Oberweis during his more than 13 months of campaigning, so he may need to throw down a lot more of his money if he’s to compete with Underwood: At the end of March, the incumbent held a <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00652719/1399135/">$2.26 million</a> to<a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00696872/1397559/"> $222,000</a> cash-on-hand lead. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587070381000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587070381000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587070381000">Thursday, Apr 16, 2020 · 8:53:01 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> IA-Sen: Retired Navy Vice Adm. Mike Franken is <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81EzVT0fsG0&feature=youtu.be">up with his first TV spot</a> ahead of the June Democratic primary to face GOP Sen. Joni Ernst, and The Courier reports that it’s <a href="https://wcfcourier.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/michael-franken-launches-ad-campaign-in-iowa-democratic-senate-race/article_0fd11c42-6f74-53ce-bbb5-2123022fd995.html">part of a six-figure buy</a>. Franken declares that, while Donald Trump and Ernst are dividing America, “I’ve brought people together to take on terrorists, Ebola, and hurricanes from Hugo to Katrina.” </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587070543000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587070543000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587070543000">Thursday, Apr 16, 2020 · 8:55:43 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> TN-Sen: Former Ambassador to Japan Bill Hagerty is the latest Republican to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RnPQ2RYMi9Q&feature=youtu.be">run a commercial</a> echoing Donald Trump’s racist attacks on China. The narrator declares, “Communist China covered up the Wuhan virus, putting America at risk. Conservative Bill Hagerty says we must hold China accountable.” </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587070991000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587070991000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587070991000">Thursday, Apr 16, 2020 · 9:03:11 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> MO-Gov: Democratic state Auditor Nichole Galloway outraised GOP Gov. Mike Parson <a href="https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/parson-tops-in-ad-spending-as-landscape-for-political-campaigns-undergoes-shift/article_51928b01-f22b-5fbb-8741-22017dcb08ad.html">$640,000 to $332,000</a> during the first quarter of 2020, and Parson ended March with only a modest $1.4 million to $1 million cash-on-hand lead. However, Parson’s allied PAC holds a large financial edge over its Democratic counterpart. Uniting Missouri PAC took in $830,000 while Keep Government Accountable hauled in $230,000, and the GOP group held a large $3.8 million to $939,000 cash-on-hand advantage. In April, after the reporting deadline, Uniting Missouri PAC received $500,000 from the Republican Governors Association. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587071435000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587071435000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587071435000">Thursday, Apr 16, 2020 · 9:10:35 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> CA-25: The conservative Congressional Leadership Fund has announced that it <a href="https://www.rollcall.com/2020/04/16/gop-super-pac-enters-special-election-battle-in-california/">will spend $600,000</a> on mail and digital ads for the May 12 special election. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587071886000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587071886000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587071886000">Thursday, Apr 16, 2020 · 9:18:06 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> FL-19: Wealthy businessman Casey Askar is <a href="https://floridapolitics.com/archives/328381-casey-askar-tv-spot-shares-immigration-story">out with his first TV spot</a> ahead of the August GOP primary for this open seat. As a clip plays of Saddam Hussein, <a href="https://youtu.be/vrxM-jkyoZA">Askar narrates</a>, “On my seventh birthday, we fled our homes for America. Christians like us were being persecuted.” The candidate goes on to say, “I worked hard. Joined the Marines. Built a business. I lived the American dream.” Askar pledges he’ll be a Donald Trump ally and concludes, “I’ll defend America with everything I have because I owe everything I have to America.” </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587072311000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587072311000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587072311000">Thursday, Apr 16, 2020 · 9:25:11 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> GA-06: The <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2020/04/16/how-outside-groups-are-raising-and-spending-their-money-786916">NRCC has released</a> a month-old survey from North Star Opinion Research that <a href="https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000171-811c-ddd3-a173-f79c54e50000">gives former GOP Rep. Karen Handel a 49-47 edge</a> in her rematch campaign against freshman Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath. This is the first poll we’ve seen from this year’s race for this competitive suburban Atlanta seat. McBath narrowly unseated Handel in a 2018 upset, and this time, the Democrat is the one who has the clear cash advantage. McBath outraised Handel <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00672295/1399908/">$1.07 million</a> to <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00633362/1400165/">$283,000</a> during the first quarter of the year, and the incumbent ended March with a $2.61 million to $966,000 cash-on-hand lead. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587072746000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587072746000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587072746000">Thursday, Apr 16, 2020 · 9:32:26 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> WI-07: In his <a href="https://www.wispolitics.com/2020/tiffany-says-in-new-ad-hed-like-to-shake-hands-ask-for-votes-but-thatll-have-to-wait">first general election TV spot</a> ahead of the May 12 special, Republican Tom Tiffany <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=flCCJbqoUCM&feature=emb_title">tells the audience</a> that “while I’d prefer to shake your hand and ask for your vote, that’ll have to wait.” After laying out his background Tiffany says, “In Congress I’ll stand with President Trump to get people back to work and America up on her feet.” </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587072896000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587072896000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587072896000">Thursday, Apr 16, 2020 · 9:34:56 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> Oklahoma: Candidate filing<a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/6/4/1855760/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-primary-calendar"> closed last week for Oklahoma's June 30 primary</a>, and the state has a<a href="https://www.ok.gov/elections/documents/2020Listbook.pdf"> list of contenders available here</a>. A runoff will take place Aug. 25 in contests where no one takes a majority of the vote. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1587073171000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587073171000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587073171000">Thursday, Apr 16, 2020 · 9:39:31 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> OK-02: GOP Rep. Markwayne Mullin <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/10/15/1892442/-Morning-Digest-Louisiana-suburb-votes-to-form-its-own-city-and-a-mostly-white-school-district#13">picked up a primary challenge from the right</a> in October from state Sen. Joseph Silk, but so far, the incumbent looks safe in this safely red seat in the eastern part of the state. Mullin, who has Donald Trump’s endorsement, ended March <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00498345/1397444/" title="">with a $637,000 war chest</a>, while Silk only <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/H0OK02228/1395408/" title="">set up his fundraising committee on Monday</a>. One other Republican filed, so it’s possible this could go to a runoff if this primary turns out to be more competitive than it looks. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1587073869000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587073869000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587073869000"> Thursday, Apr 16, 2020 · 9:51:09 PM +00:00 · David Nir </a> <div class="live-update-content">Election Changes Please bookmark our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/1/14/1855760/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-primary-calendar">statewide 2020 primary calendar</a> and our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/2/17/1917521/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-calendar-of-key-elections-across-the-country">calendar of key downballot races</a>, both of which we're updating continually as changes are finalized. • Alaska: Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy <a href="http://www.akleg.gov/basis/Bill/Detail/31?Root=SB241">has signed</a> a multi-faceted bill addressing the coronavirus emergency <a href="http://akhouse.org/2020/03/26/house-passes-bill-extending-public-health-emergency-to-november/">that includes a provision</a> allowing Republican Lt. Gov. Kevin Meyer to order that Alaska's Aug. 18 primary and any special elections this year be conducted by mail. (In Alaska, the lieutenant governor is the state's top elections official.) Meyer has not yet said whether he'll issue such an order regarding the primary. • Arizona: Republican Gov. Doug Ducey says <a href="https://www.azmirror.com/2020/04/16/officials-in-all-mail-balloting-states-say-gop-claims-of-fraud-are-false/">he's opposed</a> to conducting Arizona's Aug. 4 primary by mail, a move that both <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/1/1933152/-Morning-Digest-Anti-tax-hardliners-launch-costly-campaign-against-old-enemy-in-Kansas-Senate-race#3">Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs</a> and <a href="https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/2020/04/08/arizona-all-mail-election-2020-wouldnt-ruin-its-integrity/2957970001/">the state's local election officials</a> support. Ducey said he did not want the state "to disenfranchise anyone from voting on Election Day," but every state that conducts all-mail elections still allows voters to cast ballots on Election Day. • Louisiana: Louisiana's Republican-run legislature <a href="https://www.kalb.com/content/news/LA-Senate-committee-blocks-COVID-19-deceleration-to-expand-mail-in-ballots-569665671.html">has rejected a proposal</a> by Republican Secretary of State Kyle Ardoin to modestly expand the availability of mail voting for the state's July 11 presidential and municipal primaries. Ardoin's plan would have allowed certain groups of voters, such as those over 60, those at high risk for contracting COVID-19, or those who are self-quarantining. It also would have increased the number of days for early voting from seven to 13. Lawmakers have asked Ardoin to come up with an alternate plan by April 24. • Texas: A state judge said on Wednesday afternoon that he'll issue an order <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2020/04/15/texas-judge-will-issue-order-could-greatly-expand-mail-voting/">allowing all Texans to vote absentee</a> due to the coronavirus pandemic, less than an hour after the attorney general's office <a href="https://twitter.com/srl/status/1250508771190849536">threatened criminal prosecution</a> for groups recommending voters concerned about contracting the virus request absentee ballots. Last month, because Texas is <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/16/1927986/-These-17-states-must-change-their-laws-to-let-voters-cast-absentee-mail-ballots-without-an-excuse">one of a number of states</a> that requires voters to present an excuse in order to vote absentee, Democrats filed suit in state court asking that this requirement be relaxed. Specifically, plaintiffs said that a provision of law permitting mail voting if a voter has "a sickness or physical condition that prevents the voter from appearing at the polling place on election day without a likelihood of needing personal assistance or of injuring the voter's health" should apply to anyone practicing social distancing. Judge Tim Sulak agreed, though it is not yet clear whether his injunction will affect only the state's July 14 runoffs or extend through the November general election; conceivably, it could remain in effect for the duration of the pandemic. Whatever the case, Texas Republicans have shown a great deal of hostility toward expanding mail voting and are almost certain to appeal. That hostility was on vivid display shortly before Sulak announced his plans, when Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton <a href="https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/sites/default/files/images/admin/2020/Press/4.14.20%20Letter%20to%20Rep.%20Klick.pdf?utm_content=&utm_medium=email&utm_name=&utm_source=govdelivery&utm_term=">issued guidance to the legislature</a> concluding that "fear of contracting COVID-19" does not constitute a valid reason for voters to ask for an absentee ballot. Paxton concluded his letter by warning that if voting rights advocates were to provide the opposite advice to voters, that "could subject those third parties to criminal sanctions." Should Sulak's anticipated ruling stand, however, Paxton's threats will be moot. But even if it's overturned, Democrats could nevertheless obtain the relief they seek <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/8/1935319/-Morning-Digest-Why-Richmond-Virginia-has-one-of-the-country-s-strangest-electoral-systems#5">thanks to a similar lawsuit </a>they filed in federal court. • Wisconsin: Democrat Marina Dimitrijevic, who last week was elected to Milwaukee's city council, <a href="https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2020/04/15/milwaukee-could-mail-absentee-ballot-forms-all-registered-voters/5138190002/">is promoting a new proposal</a> to send absentee ballot applications to all 300,000 voters in the city for Wisconsin's Aug. 11 primary and the November general election. Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett and at least nine other members of the council, including the body's president, support the measure. Election officials in three large South Florida counties <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/15/1937287/-Morning-Digest-Senate-GOP-s-campaign-arm-reserves-33-million-in-TV-ads-across-these-seven-states#3">are also considering similar plans</a>. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1587074345000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587074345000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587074345000"> Thursday, Apr 16, 2020 · 9:59:05 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">OK-05: Democrat Kendra Horn unseated GOP Rep. Steve Russell in <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/11/8/1811343/-How-an-Oklahoma-Democrat-pulled-off-a-historic-upset-her-opponent-didn-t-see-coming">one of the most shocking upsets of 2018</a>, and she’ll be a top Republican target as she defends an Oklahoma City seat that <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections?detail=hide">favored Donald Trump 53-40</a>. Nine Republicans <a href="https://www.ok.gov/elections/documents/2020Listbook.pdf#page=5">filed to take on Horn</a>, and so far, there’s no obvious frontrunner. Only four of the Republicans, though, appear to have the resources needed to run a credible campaign. Businesswoman Terry Neese, who has self-funded just over half of her campaign so far, <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00704064/1398936/">had $651,000 to spend</a> at the end of March, while state Sen. Stephanie Bice <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00703843/1400570/">had $406,000 available</a>. Former state School Superintendent Janet Barresi, who has financed almost her entire race so far, <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00721357/1400503/">had $367,000 on-hand</a>, while businessman David Hill <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00721092/1399729/">had $180,000 in the bank</a>. Horn didn’t attract much attention from donors during most of her 2018 campaign, but the incumbent ended March with a <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00648915/1400003/">hefty $2.23 million on-hand</a>. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1587074620000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1587074620000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1587074620000"> Thursday, Apr 16, 2020 · 10:03:40 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content">CO-06: Crow ended March with a <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00637363/1398614/">$1.7 million</a> to <a href="https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00717868/1400815/">$409,000</a> cash-on-hand lead over House. </div> </div> rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) DailyKosElections DKELiveDigests _1936263 Thu, 16 Apr 2020 13:00:06 +0000 Morning Digest: Yet another poll finds Democrats positioned to flip GOP-held Arizona Senate seat https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/16/1937612/-Morning-Digest-Yet-another-poll-finds-Democrats-positioned-to-flip-GOP-held-Arizona-Senate-seat The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar. <h4>Leading Off</h4> <a href="#1" name="1">●</a> AZ-Sen: The GOP firm OH Predictive Insights' newest survey finds Democrat Mark Kelly leading appointed GOP Sen. Martha McSally <a href="https://ohpredictive.com/press-releases/markkelly_marthamcsally_senate2020/">by a wide 51-42 margin</a>, which is very similar to the 52-43 edge Joe Biden posts over Donald Trump in this sample. The pollster, which <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2020/04/15/how-a-census-delay-could-complicate-post-2020-redistricting-plans-786887" title="">is not working for</a> any candidate or group involved in this contest, found Kelly <a href="https://ohpredictive.com/press-releases/march-senate-2020/">ahead by a 49-42 margin last month</a>. rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) 314Action AZ-Sen BarbaraBollier BasswoodResearch BobHamilton CalCunningham CivitasInistitute CongressionalLeadershipFund DailyKosElections DanForest DanRodimer DanSchwartz DKEMorningDigest Elections EricHolcomb GA-07 HarperPolling IN-Gov JimBognet JustinAmash KrisKobach KS-Sen majorityforward MarkKelly MarthaMcSally Massachusetts ME-Sen MI-03 Missouri NC-Gov NC-Sen Nevada NewMexico NJ-07 NV-03 ohpredictiveinsights PA-08 PublicPolicyPolling RichMcCormick RogerMarshall RoyCooper SusanCollins ThomTillis TomKean TomMalinowski WoodyMyers _1937612 Thu, 16 Apr 2020 12:00:09 +0000 Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/15 https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/15/1936262/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-4-15 Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. Please note: The Live Digest is a 2016 and 2020 Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy. Sign up <a href="http://dailykos.com/electionsdigest" target="_blank">here</a> to receive the Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest in your inbox each weekday. <div><a name="update-1586973868000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586973868000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586973868000">Wednesday, Apr 15, 2020 · 6:04:28 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> AZ-Sen: The GOP firm OH Predictive Insights’ newest survey finds Democrat Mark Kelly leading appointed GOP Sen. Martha McSally <a href="https://ohpredictive.com/press-releases/markkelly_marthamcsally_senate2020/">by a wide 51-42 margin</a>, which is very similar to the 52-43 edge Joe Biden posts over Donald Trump in this sample. The pollster, which <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2020/04/15/how-a-census-delay-could-complicate-post-2020-redistricting-plans-786887">is not working for</a> any candidate or group involved in this contest, found Kelly <a href="https://ohpredictive.com/press-releases/march-senate-2020/" title="">ahead by a 49-42 margin last month</a>. Every single poll we’ve seen this year, with the exception of <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/10/1925945/-Morning-Digest-Montana-Democrats-land-their-top-candidate-to-challenge-GOP-Sen-Steve-Daines#3">one January McSally internal</a>, has found Kelly in the lead, but there’s little consensus just how far he’s ahead. In March, a Marist poll for NBC <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/nbc-news-marist-polls-biden-holds-big-leads-over-sanders-n1160536">had Kelly up just 48-45</a>, while a Latino Decisions survey for Arizona State University and Univision <a href="https://st1.uvnimg.com/07/2e/d0d9a91c4000996d8bcc95b85319/univisionpolling-march-arizona.pdf">had the Democrat dominating 48-36</a>. Monmouth and the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling fell between those two ranges with surveys showing Kelly up <a href="https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_az_031620/">50-44</a> and<a href="https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/ArizonaResults.pdf"> 47-42</a>, respectively. One other constant in this race has been Kelly’s dominant fundraising. Kelly outraised McSally <a href="https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/04/14/kelly-widens-fundraising-lead-over-mcsally-arizonas-senate-race/2989385001/">$11 million to $6.3 million</a> during the first three months of the year, and he ended March with a large $19.7 million to $10.2 million cash-on-hand edge. The good news for McSally is that her August primary foe, businessman Daniel McCarthy, <a href="https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/senate/AZ/2020/">had a mere $12,000 to spend</a>. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1586977008000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586977008000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586977008000">Wednesday, Apr 15, 2020 · 6:56:48 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> KS-Sen: 314 Action, which supports Democratic state Sen. Barbara Bollier, is out with a survey from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling that shows her <a href="https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000171-7d10-d92d-a5ff-fd3a416c0000">leading former GOP Secretary of State Kris Kobach 44-42</a>. The release did not include numbers for any of the other Republicans competing in the August primary for this open seat. Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in Kansas since 1932, but national Republicans <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/31/1933125/-Radical-anti-tax-group-launches-expensive-campaign-against-an-old-enemy-in-Kansas-Senate-race">have fretted</a> that Kobach is weak enough to put this contest into play against Bollier, who is the heavy favorite to win the Democratic nod. Polling of a Kobach-Bollier race has been limited, but a February survey from the Democratic firm DFM Research for the union SMART <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/2/18/1919918/-Morning-Digest-Daily-Kos-Elections-presents-our-2020-calendar-of-key-elections-across-the-country#2">found the two tied 43-43</a>. Kobach quickly responded with numbers from the <a href="https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/vb9jgb/trump-fired-three-pollsters-but-kept-the-one-who-keeps-telling-him-hes-winning">less-than-reliable</a> McLaughlin & Associates that showed him <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/2/18/1919918/-Morning-Digest-Daily-Kos-Elections-presents-our-2020-calendar-of-key-elections-across-the-country#2">leading Bollier 47-38</a>. Several other notable candidates are seeking the GOP nomination this summer, though, and one of them has begun advertising to get his name out. Advertising Analytics reports that Rep. Roger Marshall is <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2020/04/15/how-a-census-delay-could-complicate-post-2020-redistricting-plans-786887">spending $60,000</a> on his <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMO6o2sMUm8">opening TV spot</a>, which touts his background as an OB/GYN and argues, “With coronavirus putting lives and livelihoods at risk, Kansas could use a pro-life doctor in the Senate.” The ad also features old footage of Donald Trump praising him as “a great friend.” Marshall had the most money by far of all the GOP candidates at the end of 2019, but a new contender also has the personal resources to fund a campaign. Plumbing magnate Bob Hamilton entered the contest late last month, and we learned Wednesday that he had <a href="https://twitter.com/lindsaywise/status/1250433904076447745" title="">thrown down $2 million of his own money</a> before the end of the quarter. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1586977911000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586977911000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586977911000">Wednesday, Apr 15, 2020 · 7:11:51 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> ME-Sen: The Democratic group Majority Forward reports <a href="https://cl.ly/f518910f0a2a" title="">that it’s launched a new</a> “sizeable six-figure buy” against GOP Sen. Susan Collins. Its <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDLTO08Zxd8&feature=youtu.be">newest commercial</a> begins with a narrator saying, “Maine doctors and nurses are scrounging for medical supplies. Only 21% of what we needed came from Washington and no national plan to produce more.” The screen then shows a quote from Collins saying, “The president did a lot that was right in the beginning” as the narrator bemoans, “Once again, Susan Collins defends the president. But that’s wrong for Maine.” </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1586979254000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586979254000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586979254000">Wednesday, Apr 15, 2020 · 7:34:14 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> NC-Sen, NC-Gov: The conservative Civitas Institute is out with a new survey from the GOP firm Harper Polling that has <a href="https://1ttd918ylvt17775r1u6ng1adc-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/20.04-Civitas-NC-Statewide-Toplines-2.pdf">mixed news</a> for both parties. It finds GOP Sen. Thom Tillis leading Democrat Cal Cunningham 38-34, while Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper crushes Republican Dan Forest 50-33. This sample shows Donald Trump defeating Joe Biden 49-42. This is the first poll we’ve seen from either downballot race since Cunningham and Forest took their parties’ nominations on March 3, so we don’t have any other recent data to compare this too. There’s no question, though, that both parties will devote plenty of money to this Senate race. Cunningham, who won what turned out to be a very expensive primary, <a href="https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1250491744589950977">outraised Tillis $4.4 million to $2.1 million</a> during the first three months of 2020, while the incumbent ended March with a $6.5 million to $3 million cash-on-hand edge. Major outside groups on both sides have also <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/30/1932722/-New-TV-reservations-foreshadow-an-expensive-fight-for-Iowa-s-Republican-senator">begun making huge fall TV reservations</a> here. Cooper won his 2016 race after a very competitive race, and it remains to be seen if the GOP will invest in his contest this time. Cooper <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/4/1924026/-Morning-Digest-Primary-winner-set-in-North-Carolina-which-could-decide-which-party-runs-the-Senate" title="">held a huge cash-on-hand lead</a> over Forest in mid-February, and new campaign finance reports <a href="https://www.ncsbe.gov/Campaign-Finance/reporting-schedules">aren’t due until July 10</a>. Harper shows Cooper with a <a href="https://1ttd918ylvt17775r1u6ng1adc-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/20.04-Civitas-NC-Statewide-Toplines-2.pdf">massive 70-24 approval rating</a> as he leads the state’s response to the coronavirus, and Forest will have a hard time getting outside support if the incumbent is anywhere near this popular later in the year. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1586979530000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586979530000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586979530000">Wednesday, Apr 15, 2020 · 7:38:50 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> IN-Gov: Democrat Woody Myers outraised GOP Gov. Eric Holcomb<a href="https://twitter.com/AttyAbdul/status/1250467834855141378"> $526,000</a> to <a href="https://twitter.com/AttyAbdul/status/1250468534511177728">$391,000</a>, but the incumbent still holds a massive $7.1 million to $158,000 cash-on-hand lead. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1586980082000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586980082000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586980082000">Wednesday, Apr 15, 2020 · 7:48:02 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> GA-07: Physician Rich McCormick is out with his <a href="https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/the-jolt-poll-that-undercuts-stacey-abrams-chances-joe-biden-veep-pick/VvJygfLy1JCKNvqwNqEL4H">first TV spot</a> ahead of the June GOP primary for this competitive open seat. The <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MPjo78F77qU&feature=emb_title">narrator touts McCormick</a> as a “decorated Marine, an emergency room doctor, a Christian, and father of seven” who is ready to lead in a crisis. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1586981509000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586981509000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586981509000">Wednesday, Apr 15, 2020 · 8:11:49 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> MI-03: While Republican-turned-independent Rep. Justin Amash spent months insisting that he planned to seek re-election, his <a href="https://www.michiganadvance.com/2020/04/15/amash-has-paused-congressional-campaign-to-consider-2020-prez-run/" title="">team revealed Wednesday</a> that he’d “paused active campaigning for his congressional seat” in mid-February as he mulled a White House bid. Amash’s campaign added that a “decision can be expected soon,” though they didn’t give any more details on his timeline. Michigan <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Running_for_U.S._Congress_and_the_presidency_simultaneously">doesn’t allow candidates</a> to run for president and for Congress at the same time, so Amash would need to give up his Grand Rapids-area seat to campaign for president. The state’s filing deadline for major party candidates is <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/6/4/1855760/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-primary-calendar">on Tuesday</a> (independents <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/10/1935982/-Morning-Digest-Two-years-after-upset-win-AOC-faces-a-well-funded-primary-challenge-at-home#19">have until July</a>), so Amash’s would-be successors may not know if they’ll be running for an open seat when they submit their paperwork to run for this <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">52-42 Trump district</a>. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1586981928000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586981928000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586981928000">Wednesday, Apr 15, 2020 · 8:18:48 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> NJ-07: The conservative super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund has dusted off a month-old survey from Basswood Research that shows state Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. <a href="https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000171-7bbb-d92d-a5ff-fbbbc7fc0000">with a 39-38 edge</a> against freshman Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski. This is the first survey we’ve seen <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">for this 49-48 Clinton seat</a>. Kean has been one of the GOP’s stronger House fundraisers, but Malinowski <a href="https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/huge-fundraising-haul-for-malinowski-who-has-almost-2-7-million-banked/">outraised him $939,000 to $509,000</a> during the first three months of 2020. The incumbent ended March with a $2.67 million to $1.14 million cash-on-hand lead. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1586983152000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586983152000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586983152000">Wednesday, Apr 15, 2020 · 8:39:12 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> NV-03: Former state Treasurer Dan Schwartz is <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2020/04/15/how-a-census-delay-could-complicate-post-2020-redistricting-plans-786887">already up with a negative commercial</a> against former wrestler Dan Rodimer nearly two months ahead of their June GOP primary to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Susie Lee. Politico reports that the ad against Rodimer, who <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/17/1928090/-Morning-Digest-Ohio-cancels-in-person-voting-despite-judge-denying-request-to-delay-Tuesday-primary#24" title="">has House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s endorsement</a>, is “backed [by] a six-figure multi-media campaign.” The <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_HjN27YabPc">narrator says of Rodimer</a>, “From fraud to forgery, he’s been caught taking advantage of innocent people. Rodimer’s also been arrested three times for brutal assaults.” The ad continues, “One Rodimer attack was so horrific his victim had innercranial bleeding. A police report also described Rodimer’s harassment of a teenage girl. And an arrest warrant called Rodimer ‘armed’ or ‘dangerous.’” As we’ve written before, Rodimer was <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/10/8/1890853/-Morning-Digest-San-Francisco-s-top-prosecutor-resigns-possibly-to-run-against-Los-Angeles-DA#18">accused of assault three different times</a> from 2010 to 2013. In 2010, according to the police report, Rodimer threatened another man at a Waffle House, grabbed him by the neck, and threw him "into a chair and onto the floor." Rodimer pleaded guilty to battery and completed an anger management course, and the charges were subsequently dropped. In 2018, during his unsuccessful state Senate run, Rodimer <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/8/26/1881269/-Morning-Digest-Kansas-Republican-refuses-to-resign-as-rumors-swirl-about-unrevealed-scandal#12" title="">said of this altercation</a>, "Yes, I pushed a bully." This was the only one of the three alleged incidents, all of which took place in Florida, that resulted in any charges for Rodimer or anyone else. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1586983859000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586983859000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586983859000">Wednesday, Apr 15, 2020 · 8:50:59 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> PA-08: Former Trump official Jim Bognet, who is running in the June GOP primary to face Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright, is <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfcIYZ03OZo" title="">out with an ad called</a> “Make China Pay,” and it’s about as bad as the title suggests. Bognet tells the audience, “When I’m your congressman, we’ll make China pay. For the lies they told, for the jobs they stole, and the lives we lost.” Bognet does not go into any detail about how he’ll punish the world’s largest country and America’s largest trading partner. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1586986077000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586986077000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586986077000"> Wednesday, Apr 15, 2020 · 9:27:57 PM +00:00 · David Nir </a> <div class="live-update-content">Election Changes Please bookmark our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/1/14/1855760/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-primary-calendar">statewide 2020 primary calendar</a> and our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/2/17/1917521/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-calendar-of-key-elections-across-the-country">calendar of key downballot races</a>, both of which we're updating continually as changes are finalized. Massachusetts: State Senate Majority Leader Cynthia Creem <a href="https://www.masslive.com/coronavirus/2020/04/coronavirus-pandemic-prompts-massachusetts-lawmakers-to-file-vote-by-mail-bill.html">has introduced a bill</a> to allow all voters to request an absentee ballot both for Massachusetts' Sept. 1 primary and the November general election. The measure would also set up a period of early voting for the primary. State Senate President Karen Spilka, a fellow Democrat, <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/14/metro/with-legislature-stalled-mass-high-court-tackle-coronavirus-ballot-issue/">has said she supports the legislation</a>. <a href="https://www.beccarauschma.com/2020-vote-by-mail-act">A separate bill</a> filed by a pair of Democratic lawmakers, state Sen. Becca Rausch and state Rep. Adrian Madaro, would have the state send mail-in ballots to all voters for both the primary and general election. Missouri: Republican Gov. Mike Parson says <a href="https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article242023221.html">he does not believe</a> it is permissible for voters who are concerned about the coronavirus pandemic or are abiding by his stay-at-home order to cite either as a reason for requesting an absentee ballot. He further derided the idea of expanded absentee voting as a "political issue" and a "Democrat-Republican issue." Parson, however, may not have the last word. Republican Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft <a href="https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article241275436.html">has refused to address the issue</a>, saying "it is not up to" him to determine whether concerns about the virus are a valid reason for voting absentee. That has left the matter in the hands of Missouri's 115 county-level election administrators. Activists <a href="https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article242023221.html">have canvassed every local clerk's office</a> and received many different answers. Some <a href="https://dailyjournalonline.com/news/local/county-clerk-says-vote-absentee/article_7e3b74e2-fbdc-52bc-b610-9e8c2219fb7e.html">are explicitly encouraging voters</a> to cast absentee ballots, others are saying COVID-19 permits the practice, and still others are siding with Parson in saying it's forbidden. Nevada: Republican Secretary of State Barbara Cegavske's office <a href="https://twitter.com/RileySnyder/status/1250241420016758784">says it will take no action</a> in response to a letter from the Nevada Democratic Party charging that the state's plan to conduct its June 9 primaries by mail is deficient. <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/15/1937287/-Morning-Digest-Senate-GOP-s-campaign-arm-reserves-33-million-in-TV-ads-across-these-seven-states#8">Democrats had said</a> that opening only one in-person voting site per county would be insufficient. They also said that the state should mail ballots to all registered voters, not only those who are listed as "active" in the state's files. A Cegavske aide countered that adding polling locations would lead to "logistical and staffing challenges" and said that sending ballots to so-called "inactive" voters "would increase printing and mailing costs and result in a significant amount of undeliverable ballots." <a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/stevesebelius/image/upload/v1586886992/200410_Letter_to_Hon._Barbara_Cegavske_jm2exy.pdf">In their letter</a>, Democrats suggested they would sue in the absence of a satisfactory response. New Mexico: The New Mexico Supreme Court <a href="https://www.lcsun-news.com/story/news/2020/04/14/coronavirus-new-mexico-supreme-court-rejects-request-vote-mail-june-primary/2991724001/">has rejected a request</a> by 27 of the state's 33 county clerks to order that the June 2 primaries be conducted by mail, saying that state law forbids mailing ballots to every voter. However, the court noted that there's no similar prohibition on sending absentee ballot applications to all voters, prompting Democratic Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver to say <a href="https://www.krwg.org/post/new-mexico-secretary-state-mail-absentee-ballot-applications">her office would do so</a>. An attorney for the clerks argued that seeking relief from the court was a "last resort" because the legislature is unable to meet to consider any changes to the law. The justices were unmoved, but notably, the court issued its decision after hearing the case remotely. </div> </div> rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) DailyKosElections DKELiveDigests _1936262 Wed, 15 Apr 2020 13:00:13 +0000 Morning Digest: Senate GOP's campaign arm reserves $33 million in TV ads across these seven states https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/15/1937287/-Morning-Digest-Senate-GOP-s-campaign-arm-reserves-33-million-in-TV-ads-across-these-seven-states The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar. <h4>Leading Off</h4> <a href="#1" name="1">●</a> Senate: The NRSC has announced <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/13/senate-republicans-campaign-majority-184136">it has reserved a total of $33 million</a> in TV ads for seven states. The bookings come weeks after the GOP super PAC <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/23/1930462/-Mitch-McConnell-s-super-PAC-books-67-million-in-fall-TV-time-to-protect-GOP-s-Senate-majority">Senate Leadership Fund</a> and the Democratic group <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/30/1932722/-New-TV-reservations-foreshadow-an-expensive-fight-for-Iowa-s-Republican-senator">Senate Majority PAC</a> made their first reservations. However, while both those groups will start going on the air just after Labor Day, the NRSC will start advertising in some contests <a href="https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1249787500522024960">as early as June</a>. The NRSC's reservations by state, as well as the planned ad start dates, are below. All the seats are held by Republicans except for Michigan, which is represented by Democratic Sen. Gary Peters: <ul> <li>Arizona (Martha McSally): $5.7 million, starts June 1.</li> <li>Colorado: (Cory Gardner): $6.4 million, starts July 8</li> <li>Iowa: (Joni Ernst): $2.6 million, starts June 9</li> <li>Maine: (Susan Collins): $5.1 million, starts June 3</li> <li>Michigan: (Gary Peters): $3.1 million, starts June 1</li> <li>Montana: (Steve Daines): $2.8 million, starts Sept. 8</li> <li>North Carolina: (Thom Tillis): $7.3 million, starts July 3</li> </ul> rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) 16CountiesCoalition AZ-Sen BrianSchatz CA-11 CA-25 ChrisLarson ChristySmith CO-Sen DailyKosElections DavidCrowley DKEMorningDigest EdCase Elections Florida GregHughes HI-02 IA-Sen Illinois JanGarbett JeffBurningham JonHuntsman JoshEisen KaiKahele Kentucky LenaTaylor Louisiana MarkDeSaulnier Maryland ME-Sen MI-Sen MikeGarcia MilwaukeeCountyWIExecutive MilwaukeeWIMayor MT-Sen NancyMace NC-Sen Nevada NRCC NY-17 SC-01 Senate SpencerCox SusanCollins TomBarrett UT-Gov washingtond.c Wisconsin _1937287 Wed, 15 Apr 2020 12:00:11 +0000 Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/14 https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/14/1936261/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-4-14 Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. Please note: The Live Digest is a 2016 and 2020 Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy. Sign up <a href="http://dailykos.com/electionsdigest" target="_blank">here</a> to receive the Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest in your inbox each weekday. <div><a name="update-1586883897000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586883897000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586883897000">Tuesday, Apr 14, 2020 · 5:04:57 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> Milwaukee, WI Mayor: Mayor Tom Barrett won a fifth four-year term on April 7 by defeating state Sen. Lena Taylor, a fellow Democrat, <a href="https://www.wisn.com/article/milwaukee-mayor-tom-barrett-wins-fifth-term/32134802#">63-37</a>. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1586885127000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586885127000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586885127000">Tuesday, Apr 14, 2020 · 5:25:27 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> Milwaukee County, WI Executive: Votes from the April 7 nonpartisan general election were released Monday evening, and state Rep. David Crowley defeated his fellow Democrat, state Sen. Chris Larson, <a href="https://projects.jsonline.com/topics/election/2020/4/13/wisconsin-spring-election-results-april-7.html">50.3-49.7</a>—a margin of 1,039 votes. Larson conceded <a href="https://www.cbs58.com/news/milwaukee-county-executive-candidate-sen-chris-larson-concedes-race-to-state-rep-david-crowley">the following afternoon</a>. Crowley had the support of Abel, a Democrat who has <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/10/18/1893209/-Morning-Digest-Elijah-Cummings-the-chair-of-the-powerful-House-Oversight-Committee-dies-at-68#14">often worked with the GOP legislature</a>, while Larson had unsuccessfully challenged the incumbent in 2016. While Larson outraised Crowley <a href="https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/04/13/milwaukee-election-results-david-crowley-and-chris-larson-county-executive-april-7/2985143001/">$267,000 to $131,000</a>, Abel’s Leadership MKE group spent a total of $767,000 on Crowley’s behalf. Crowley’s win will make him <a href="https://milwaukeecourieronline.com/index.php/2020/02/15/david-crowley-knows-milwaukee-county/">Milwaukee County's first elected black executive</a>. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1586885587000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586885587000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586885587000">Tuesday, Apr 14, 2020 · 5:33:07 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> ME-Sen: The progressive group 16 Counties Coalition (its name is a reference to the number of counties in Maine) has launched what Politico <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2020/04/14/trumps-46-percent-presidency-488907">reports is a $600,000 ad campaign</a> against GOP Sen. Susan Collins. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bWnMPILSOb0&feature=youtu.be">The commercial</a> features a retired clinical social worker identified Louise taking Collins to task for siding with “Mitch McConnell by voting for billions in tax breaks for big corporations” instead of supporting her constituents during the coronavirus pandemic. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1586887227000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586887227000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586887227000">Tuesday, Apr 14, 2020 · 6:00:27 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> Senate: The NRSC has announced <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/13/senate-republicans-campaign-majority-184136">it has reserved a total of $33 million</a> in TV ads for seven states. The bookings come weeks after the GOP super PAC <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/23/1930462/-Mitch-McConnell-s-super-PAC-books-67-million-in-fall-TV-time-to-protect-GOP-s-Senate-majority">Senate Leadership Fund</a> and the Democratic group <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/30/1932722/-New-TV-reservations-foreshadow-an-expensive-fight-for-Iowa-s-Republican-senator">Senate Majority PAC</a> made their first reservations. However, while both those groups will start going on the air just after Labor Day, the NRSC will start advertising in some contests <a href="https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1249787500522024960">as early as June</a>. The NRSC’s reservations by state, as well as the planned ad start dates, are below. All the seats are held by Republicans except for Michigan, which is represented by Democratic Sen. Gary Peters: <ul> <li>Arizona (Martha McSally): $5.7 million, starts June 1.</li> <li>Colorado: (Cory Gardner): $6.4 million, starts July 8</li> <li>Iowa: (Joni Ernst): $2.6 million, starts June 9</li> <li>Maine: (Susan Collins): $5.1 million, starts June 3</li> <li>Michigan: (Gary Peters): $3.1 million, starts June 1</li> <li>Montana: (Steve Daines): $2.8 million, starts Sept. 8</li> <li>North Carolina: (Thom Tillis): $7.3 million, starts July 3</li> </ul> The NRSC is the first major outside group to book time in Michigan and Montana, while SMP and SLF each reserved time in the other five states. So far, though, SLF is the only group to reserve airtime in Kentucky, where Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell faces an expensive fight. The DSCC, which is the other major spender on the Democratic side, has not yet announced its opening wave of TV reservations. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1586891529000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586891529000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586891529000">Tuesday, Apr 14, 2020 · 7:12:09 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> UT-Gov: State election officials said Monday that former Ambassador to Russia Jon Huntsman had <a href="https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2020/04/13/jon-huntsman-qualifies/">submitted enough valid signatures</a> to appear on the June 30 GOP primary ballot, an announcement that came on the final day that candidates could turn in petitions. Businesswoman Jan Garbett, though, <a href="https://www.fox13now.com/news/coronavirus/local-coronavirus-news/utah-gubernatorial-candidate-jan-garbett-sues-over-signature-gathering">only handed in</a> a total 21,000 of the requisite 28,000 signatures. Garbett filed a lawsuit the next day to get on the ballot, arguing that the state had not done enough to make it easier for candidates to collect signatures during the coronavirus pandemic. Because Garbett decided to skip the April 25 virtual party convention, which is the only other way that candidates can reach the primary ballot in Utah, her campaign will be over if she doesn't prevail in court. Garbett is pitching herself as the one Republican contender who doesn’t back Donald Trump, though, so the <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/23/1930094/-Morning-Digest-GOP-senators-who-dumped-stocks-ahead-of-pandemic-take-fire-from-their-own-party#11">former Democrat</a> would have a difficult time winning the GOP nod no matter what. Two other Republicans, Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox and former state party chair Thomas Wright, turned in their signatures earlier this year, and state election officials said several weeks ago that they’d each made the ballot. Over half of Huntsman’s petitions, though, were <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/10/1936239/-How-a-far-right-senator-s-support-could-save-Jon-Huntsman-s-comeback-campaign">rejected in late March</a>, and the former governor had only about two-and-a-half weeks left to <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/27/1931853/-How-conservative-delegates-could-end-Jon-Huntsman-s-comeback-campaign-months-before-his-primary">collect the remaining 11,500 signatures</a>. Social distancing made this task especially difficult, though the state took some steps to allow voters to sign petitions at home. In the end, however, Huntsman got the necessary signatures in time. While Cox, Huntsman, and Wright are each guaranteed to be on the primary ballot, they’re also competing at the party convention. Four other Republicans, though, need to perform well with delegates the weekend after next if they want to be in the primary. Former state House Speaker Greg Hughes announced in January that he would only go through the GOP convention route, while Salt Lake County Council chair Aimee Winder Newton said the following month that she would <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/2/21/1920708/-Morning-Digest-Alabama-Republicans-air-each-other-s-dirty-laundry-ahead-of-nasty-Senate-primary#6">do the same thing</a> because of the high cost of gathering petitions. Businessman Jeff Burningham was also collecting signatures, but he announced in March that he'd <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/17/1928090/-Morning-Digest-Ohio-cancels-in-person-voting-despite-judge-denying-request-to-delay-Tuesday-primary#9">only compete at the convention</a> because of the dangers of the coronavirus. <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Jason_Christensen">Perennial candidate Jason Christensen</a> is also <a href="https://voteinfo.utah.gov/wp-content/uploads/sites/42/2020/03/2020-Declaration-of-Candidacy-Jason-Christensen-4.pdf">restricting his efforts to the convention</a>. At least two, and potentially more, of those four campaigns will come to an end at the party gathering. <a href="https://utgop.org/wp-content/plugins/pdf-poster/pdfjs/web/viewer.php?file=https://utgop.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/UTGOP-Bylaws-as-of-12-7-2019.pdf#page=6">State GOP rules</a> say that, in races with three or more contenders, the convention may opt to either use multiple ballots or preference voting to gradually eliminate candidates from consideration; according to Utah Policy, the party has <a href="https://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/23461-bob-bernick-s-notebook-utah-gop-turns-to-irv">decided to use ranked-choice voting</a> this year. If one contender ends up taking more than 60% of the delegate vote, they will be the only candidate to reach the primary ballot. If, however, no one hits this threshold, then the two competitors left standing will advance to the primary. (<a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Oj8R6Hsp3UvKJ3FRntxyRf7kFfYQgWQA/view">Utah Democrats' rules</a> work the same way.) While Cox, Huntsman, and Wright will reach the primary no matter how good or bad they do on April 25, they still may benefit from doing well at the convention and knocking out more of their opponents. Utah Policy also reports that Burningham and Hughes have <a href="https://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/23557-burningham-has-spent-more-on-advertising-than-the-other-republican-candidates-for-governor-combined">spent the most on advertising</a> in the leadup to the convention: Burningham had deployed $673,000 so far to Hughes’ $294,000, while Cox was in third with $193,000 spent. While recent polls show Burningham and Hughes <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/2/1933689/-New-poll-finds-Jon-Huntsman-locked-in-a-tough-GOP-primary-if-he-can-even-make-it-to-the-ballot">badly trailing both Huntsman and Cox</a> in the primary, their advertising could help them appeal to the delegates who will be deciding their fate later this month. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1586892918000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586892918000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586892918000">Tuesday, Apr 14, 2020 · 7:35:18 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> CA-11: Democratic Rep. Mark DeSaulnier’s office <a href="https://twitter.com/repdesaulnier/status/1249871769827037184">announced Monday</a> that the congressman’s condition had improved and that he had moved out of the intensive care unit. DeSaulnier is still in the hospital as he’s treated for complications with phenomena. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1586894671000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586894671000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586894671000">Tuesday, Apr 14, 2020 · 8:04:31 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> CA-25: Republican Mike Garcia and the NRCC are <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VU4Yb4HC6js&feature=youtu.be">out with another spot</a> from their joint ad buy ahead of the May 12 special election that claims Democratic Assemblywoman Christy Smith did "nothing" to respond to the coronavirus epidemic. Smith’s campaign <a href="https://www.christyforcongress.org/get-the-facts" title="">quickly put out a fact-check</a> noting that she’d introduced legislation in January that “would create a temporary sales tax exemption for emergency preparation items.” Smith’s team also said that, among other things, she “immediately reached out to all in-district hospitals, city officials, school officials, and others to ensure they have the resources needed” and “personally secured 500 face masks and is distributing them throughout the district.” The statement also said that the assemblywoman “is personally involved with case work centered on getting people their unemployment claims, information on rental protection, and where and how to access additional support.” </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1586895251000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586895251000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586895251000">Tuesday, Apr 14, 2020 · 8:14:11 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> NY-17: Wealthy Republican Josh Eisen temporarily suspended his campaign for this <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections" title="">open 59-38 Clinton seat</a> in February after City & State <a href="https://www.cityandstateny.com/articles/politics/campaigns-elections/ny-gop-congressional-candidate-josh-eisen-has-been-accused" target="_blank">unearthed lawsuits</a> full off accusations that he’d “harassed legal opponents and their families over email, and has a documented use of racial slurs.” Eisen, who has self-funded at least $500,000 so far, rejoined the race the following month but soon announced that, because the coronavirus prevented him from getting enough signatures to make the primary ballot, he <a href="https://www.lohud.com/story/news/politics/2020/04/06/josh-eisen-17th-congressional-district/2953471001/">would run as an independent</a>. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1586895474000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586895474000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586895474000">Tuesday, Apr 14, 2020 · 8:17:54 PM +00:00 · David Nir </a> <div class="live-update-content"> HI-02: State Sen. Kai Kahele has had the race for Hawaii's open 2nd Congressional District largely to himself since mid-autumn, and he just secured some major endorsements that suggest things are likely to stay that way. Both <a href="https://www.kaikahele.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/KahelePressRelease-4_13_20.pdf">Sen. Brian Schatz</a> and <a href="https://www.kaikahele.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/KK-EdCase_Meme1.jpg">Rep. Ed Case</a>, along with several current and former leaders in the state Senate, have given their backing to Kahele, who only faces minor opposition in the Aug. 8 Democratic primary. These announcements coincide with another important development: Kahele, an officer in the Hawaii Air National Guard, <a href="https://www.kaikahele.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/KahelePressRelease-4_14_20.pdf">was just called up to active duty</a> to help fight the coronavirus pandemic. The candidate filing deadline <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/1/14/1855760/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-primary-calendar">is not until June 2</a>, so there's still a chance Kahele could draw a serious opponent, especially now that he’s been taken off the campaign trail. However, it's been almost six months six Rep. Tulsi Gabbard announced she wouldn't seek re-election and no notable contenders have taken even the smallest public steps toward a bid. Kahele has also used his time as the only candidate in the race to amass a sizable war chest: His campaign <a href="https://www.kaikahele.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/KahelePressRelease-4_13_20.pdf#page=2" target="_blank">says it raised $124,000</a> during the first quarter of the year and has $498,000 cash-on-hand, so anyone who were to get in now would likely face a sizable financial deficit. </div> </div> <div><a name="update-1586895824000"></a></div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586895824000"><a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586895824000">Tuesday, Apr 14, 2020 · 8:23:44 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer </a> <div class="live-update-content"> SC-01: State Rep. Nancy Mace is <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRCeQEeD38s&feature=emb_title">up with her first TV spot</a> ahead of the June GOP primary to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham. The narrator notes that Mace was the first woman to graduate from The Citadel military academy and that she was part of Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign in South Carolina, and he goes on to describe Mace’s conservative record in the legislature. The ad concludes with footage of Mike Pence praising her as “an extraordinary American with an extraordinary lifetime of accomplishments—past, present and future.” Mace’s campaign says that this commercial will <a href="https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/sc-congressional-candidate-nancy-mace-touts-trump-ties-in-new-tv-ad/article_d3450bf2-7e65-11ea-ae98-9b55f0eae356.html">run for six figures</a>. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1586904034000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586904034000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586904034000"> Tuesday, Apr 14, 2020 · 10:40:34 PM +00:00 · David Nir </a> <div class="live-update-content">Election Changes Please bookmark our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/1/14/1855760/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-primary-calendar">statewide 2020 primary calendar</a> and our <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/2/17/1917521/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-calendar-of-key-elections-across-the-country">calendar of key downballot races</a>, both of which we're updating continually as changes are finalized. • District of Columbia: Democratic Mayor Muriel Bowser <a href="http://lims.dccouncil.us/Legislation/B23-0733">has signed legislation</a> to have election officials <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/8/1935319/-Morning-Digest-Why-Richmond-Virginia-has-one-of-the-country-s-strangest-electoral-systems#2">send absentee ballot applications</a> with postage-paid return envelopes to all D.C. voters for the District's June 2 presidential and local primaries. • Florida: Officials in populous Broward County, Florida say they <a href="https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-broward-mail-voting-effort-20200413-idihdt2q7vbfbk42iyk2aitjei-story.html">plan to send</a> every registered voter an absentee ballot request form ahead of the state's Aug. 18 downballot primaries. Voters who ask for an absentee ballot for the primary will also automatically receive one for the general election. Two other large south Florida counties, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach, are also considering similar measures. Collectively, these three counties <a href="https://dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reportsxlsx/voter-registration-by-county-and-party/">are home to 27%</a> of Florida's 13.7 million registered voters. • Illinois: Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker says he'd like officials <a href="https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hinz-politics/pritzker-sounds-optimistic-notes-and-tentatively-talks-about-reopening-economy">to send every voter an application</a> to request an absentee ballot ahead of the November general elections, but according to Crain's Chicago Business, he "stopped short of endorsing" a bill proposed by Democratic state Sen. Julie Morrison to mail every voter an actual ballot. Pritzker <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/2/1933477/-Morning-Digest-Mirroring-Trump-Texas-GOP-candidate-s-ad-fans-anti-Chinese-racism-over-coronavirus#4">previously said</a> Illinois might have to "move to a significant amount or all mail-in ballots." • Kentucky: Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear <a href="https://www.wtvq.com/2020/04/13/569568/">has vetoed a measure</a> that would have required sign-off from Republican Secretary of State Michael Adams before the governor could use his emergency powers to make changes to elections. Adams <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/3/1933771/-Morning-Digest-Judge-won-t-delay-Tuesday-elections-in-Wisconsin-despite-grave-health-risks#5">had focused on a small tweak</a> the law would have made to an existing statute by clarifying that the governor could change the "manner" in which an election during a state of emergency can be held; state law currently specifies that only the "time" and "place" may be altered. However, <a href="https://governor.ky.gov/attachments/20200413_Veto-Message_HB351.pdf#page=7">in a statement explaining his veto</a>, Beshear said that "the existing statutory process for ordering changes to an election is effective." Kentucky's Republican-run legislature could override Beshear's veto with a simple majority. • Louisiana: Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards <a href="https://www.thenewsstar.com/story/news/2020/04/14/coronavirus-louisiana-presidential-primary-election-july-11/2991706001/">has postponed</a> Louisiana's presidential primaries a second time, from June 20 to July 11; originally, they'd been scheduled for April 4. Edwards also delayed the state's municipal elections again, moving them from July 25 to Aug. 15; previously, they had been set for May 9. • Maryland: Maryland's Board of Elections <a href="https://www.baltimoresun.com/coronavirus/bs-md-pol-coronavirus-election-7th-district-vote-center-20200413-ugbabb4j65aazgozvyl2cf4upq-story.html">has now authorized limited in-person voting</a> for the April 28 special election in the state's 7th Congressional District, a reversal of its previous plan to eliminate in-person voting entirely. While all active registered voters have been sent ballots in the mail, some voters are unable to vote by mail for a variety of reasons, including the simple fact that some will inevitably not receive ballots. Had the board not changed course, it could have faced litigation for violating the rights of disabled voters. • Nevada: Lawyers for the Nevada Democratic Party <a href="https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/nevada-democrats-threaten-legal-action-without-major-changes-expansion-of-all-mail-primary-election">have sent a letter</a> to Republican Secretary of State Barbara Cegavske threatening litigation if she does not make changes to her plan to conduct the state's June 2 downballot primaries by mail. <a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/stevesebelius/image/upload/v1586886992/200410_Letter_to_Hon._Barbara_Cegavske_jm2exy.pdf">In their letter</a>, the attorneys identify what they say are a number of deficiencies in Cegavske's plans that could be unconstitutional. Most notably, they say that having only one in-person voting site per county is insufficient. They also say that the state must mail ballots to all registered voters, not only those who are listed as "active" in the state's files. • Wisconsin: Democratic Gov. Tony Evers is <a href="https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/04/10/tony-evers-taking-close-look-postponing-7th-district-election/5125548002/">considering postponing the special election</a> in Wisconsin's 7th Congressional District, which is set for May 12. While Evers <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/7/1934953/-Conservative-courts-order-Wisconsin-election-to-proceed-risks-to-health-and-democracy-be-damned">was blocked</a> by the conservative majority on the state Supreme Court when he sought to delay last week's statewide elections, it appears he has the power to move the special election on his own. However, both candidates in the race, Democrat Tricia Zunker and Republican Tom Tiffany, oppose changing the date, with Zunker calling for the election to be conducted by mail. </div> </div> rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) DailyKosElections DKELiveDigests _1936261 Tue, 14 Apr 2020 13:00:27 +0000 Morning Digest: Progressives flip Wisconsin Supreme Court seat held by Scott Walker appointee https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/14/1936964/-Morning-Digest-Progressives-flip-Wisconsin-Supreme-Court-seat-held-by-Scott-Walker-appointee The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar. <h4>Leading Off</h4> <a href="#1" name="1">●</a> WI Supreme Court: Dane County Circuit Court Judge Jill Karofsky unseated Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice Dan Kelly on Monday night in a key race that will narrow the court’s conservative majority and also sets progressives up to take control of the court when its next member is up for election. With nearly all votes tallied, Karofsky <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/13/1936886/-Wisconsin-Supreme-Court-election-results" target="_blank">held a 55-45 lead</a>. Last Tuesday’s contests went ahead amidst the coronavirus pandemic despite a last-minute order from the state’s governor, Democrat Tony Evers, seeking to postpone them. Evers’ order, however, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/7/1934953/-Conservative-courts-order-Wisconsin-election-to-proceed-risks-to-health-and-democracy-be-damned" target="_blank">was quashed by the conservatives</a> on the state Supreme Court, forcing Wisconsinites to choose between exercising their right to vote and protecting their health. An extreme shortage of poll workers <a href="https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/solutions/2020/04/09/wisconsin-coronavirus-pandemic-election-ridiculous-photo-patricia-mcknight-intern/5121021002/" target="_blank">led to excessively long lines</a> in the few precincts that were able to open. rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) AmyKennedy BrianMast BrigidCallahanHarrison CA-10 CA-48 ChrisPappas ChristineGregoire DailyKosElections DanKelly DennyHeck DKEMorningDigest DougCollins drewferguson EarlGranville Elections FL-18 GA-14 GA-Sen-B IA-Sen IL-06 IowaVoices JeanneIves JeffSites JillKarofsky JimJustice JohnCowan JoniErnst LynnAfendoulis MA-04 MA-Sen Maine MI-03 michellesteel MikeEspy Missouri MS-Sen NH-01 NJ-02 NM-03 OH-04 Oklahoma PA-08 PeterMeijer SouthDakota TedHowze Utah ValeriePlame Vermont Virginia WA-LG WISupremeCourt WoodyThrasher WV-Gov _1936964 Tue, 14 Apr 2020 12:00:08 +0000 Live Coverage: Wisconsin Supreme Court election https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/13/1936915/-Live-Coverage-Wisconsin-Supreme-Court-election Nearly a week after one of the most fraught elections in memory, the first results from Wisconsin’s April 7 contests were set to be released at 5 PM ET (4 PM local time). With the Democratic presidential nomination now decided, the officially nonpartisan state Supreme Court election between progressive Judge Jill Karofsky and conservative incumbent Justice Dan Kelly is the marquee race in the Badger State. To help track the returns as they come in, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/13/1936914/-The-Daily-Kos-Elections-county-by-county-guide-to-the-Wisconsin-Supreme-Court-election" target="_blank">please consult our county-by-county benchmarks</a>. Results: <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/04/13/1936886/-" target="_blank">WI Supreme Court</a> <div> <a name="update-1586822041000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586822041000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586822041000"> Monday, Apr 13, 2020 · 11:54:01 PM +00:00 · Steve Singiser </a> <div class="live-update-content">If you’re just checking in on a rare election liveblog night (rare during the era of COVID), you’re in for a treat. Despite the best efforts of the GOP to tilt the field in their favor, it is now clear that their conservative Supreme Court incumbent, Daniel Kelly, is en route to a surprisingly decisive defeat at the hands of Jill Karofsky. With 57% of precincts reporting, Karofsky is enjoying a six-point lead over Kelly, which is practically a landslide in Wisconsin elections as of late. Karofsky has <a href="https://twitter.com/judgekarofsky/status/1249844449708068873?s=20" target="_blank">already declared</a> victory, and Daily Kos has already offered <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/13/1936936/-Progressive-judge-unseats-Scott-Walker-s-pick-in-major-race-for-Wisconsin-Supreme-Court" target="_blank">our congratulations</a> on the victory. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1586822408000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586822408000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586822408000"> Tuesday, Apr 14, 2020 · 12:00:08 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser </a> <div class="live-update-content">In additional good news, after trailing early, 2019 liberal Supreme Court candidate Lisa Neubauer now looks poised to hold onto her seat on the Court of Appeals. She leads 53-47 over Paul Bugenhagen with two-thirds of the vote reporting. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1586822505000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586822505000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586822505000"> Tuesday, Apr 14, 2020 · 12:01:45 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser </a> <div class="live-update-content">The Associated Press has now projected that Jill Karofsky will be the new justice on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. A huge win for progressives, and a huge blow for Donald Trump, who offered one of his enthusiastic endorsement tweets for incumbent Daniel Kelly pre-election. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1586824953000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586824953000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586824953000"> Tuesday, Apr 14, 2020 · 12:42:33 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser </a> <div class="live-update-content">What’s stunning here, as we await the rest of the returns: the fade in the historically uber-Republican WOW counties continues unabated. In 2018, when Republican Gov. Scott Walker narrowly lost his grip on the governor’s mansion, part of it was driven by a marked decrease in these GOP strongholds. Compare how Walker did in his 2018 losing effort with how conservative incumbent Daniel Kelly did tonight: <ul> <li>OZAUKEE COUNTY: 62.7% Walker, 56.0% Kelly</li> <li>WASHINGTON COUNTY: 72.2% Walker, 67.8% Kelly</li> <li>WAUKESHA COUNTY: 66.1% Walker, 61.2% Kelly</li> </ul> The Wisconsin GOP can not see these numbers and take a ton of comfort from them. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1586825082000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586825082000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586825082000"> Tuesday, Apr 14, 2020 · 12:44:42 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser </a> <div class="live-update-content">We haven’t mentioned Justice Kelly’s most high-profile endorser yet, but let’s go back into the very recent past <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-press-briefing-18/" target="_blank">for this gem</a>, from April 3rd: <blockquote> "THE PRESIDENT: In Wisconsin, what happened is I, through social media — media put out a very strong endorsement of a Republican conservative judge who’s an excellent, brilliant judge. He’s a justice. And I hear what happened is his poll numbers went through the roof. And because of that, I think they delayed the election." </blockquote> Through the roof, at this moment, is looking like an eight-point defeat, when all is said and done. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1586825654000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586825654000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586825654000"> Tuesday, Apr 14, 2020 · 12:54:14 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser </a> <div class="live-update-content">And with that McNugget of wisdom for President Trump, and with the only question left on the night being the margin of victory (Justice Kelly having just effectively conceded), we’re gonna call it a night here at Daily Kos Elections. Hope you all have enjoyed this one as much as we have! Thanks for reading! </div> </div> rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) DailyKosElections DKELiveblogs Recommended Wisconsin _1936915 Mon, 13 Apr 2020 23:49:23 +0000 Live Coverage: Wisconsin Supreme Court election https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/4/13/1936916/-Live-Coverage-Wisconsin-Supreme-Court-election Nearly a week after one of the most fraught elections in memory, the first results from Wisconsin’s April 7 contests were set to be released at 5 PM ET (4 PM local time). With the Democratic presidential nomination now decided, the officially nonpartisan state Supreme Court election between progressive Judge Jill Karofsky and conservative incumbent Justice Dan Kelly is the marquee race in the Badger State. To help track the returns as they come in, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/13/1936914/-The-Daily-Kos-Elections-county-by-county-guide-to-the-Wisconsin-Supreme-Court-election" target="_blank">please consult our county-by-county benchmarks</a>. Results: <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/04/13/1936886/-" target="_blank" title="">WI Supreme Court</a> <div> <a name="update-1586819183000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586819183000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586819183000"> Monday, Apr 13, 2020 · 11:06:23 PM +00:00 · Steve Singiser </a> <div class="live-update-content">We are now up to 36% of the precincts reporting in this pivotal Supreme Court case in Wisconsin, and the liberal challenger (Jill Karofsky) enjoys a narrow lead over incumbent Daniel Kelly. The margin is just four-tenths of a point (50.2-49.8), a raw vote edge of just 2900 votes. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1586819254000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586819254000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586819254000"> Monday, Apr 13, 2020 · 11:07:34 PM +00:00 · Steve Singiser </a> <div class="live-update-content">Here is a telling piece of data. For cycle after cycle, the killer of Democratic ambitions in the state are the so-called WOW counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington) around Milwaukee. Ozaukee is at 98% reporting. This is a county that both Hagedorn and Walker carried for the conservative cause with 63% of the vote. Kelly is leading there as well, but sitting at just 55.8%. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1586819503000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586819503000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586819503000"> Monday, Apr 13, 2020 · 11:11:43 PM +00:00 · Steve Singiser </a> <div class="live-update-content">Milwaukee apparently just reported all of their votes en masse (up to 95% reporting). Karofsky took 69% of the vote there (well ahead of the 2019 Supreme Court margins), and she now leads Kelly 53-47 overall, with 47% of all precincts reporting. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1586820204000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586820204000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586820204000"> Monday, Apr 13, 2020 · 11:23:24 PM +00:00 · Steve Singiser </a> <div class="live-update-content">While most folks’ eyes have been on the Supreme Court case, we see that Democratic incumbent Tom Barrett has been re-elected to his fifth term as Mayor of Milwaukee. The mayor, a one-time Congressman representing Milwaukee, easily defeated state senator Lena Taylor. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1586820384000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586820384000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586820384000"> Monday, Apr 13, 2020 · 11:26:24 PM +00:00 · Steve Singiser </a> <div class="live-update-content">Wow, an absolute slap to the face of former Gov. Scott Walker in Milwaukee County: <div class="dk-editor-embed center-block" data-twitter-content='&lt;blockquote class="twitter-tweet"&gt;&lt;p lang="en" dir="ltr"&gt;RESULTS: Both judges appointed by former Gov. Scott Walker -- Judge Paul Dedinsky and Judge Dan Gabler -- lose by at least 20 percentage points.&lt;/p&gt;&amp;mdash; Daniel Bice (@DanielBice) &lt;a href="https://twitter.com/DanielBice/status/1249837663970111488?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw"&gt;April 13, 2020&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt; '><div class="remove-embed-content">x</div><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">RESULTS: Both judges appointed by former Gov. Scott Walker -- Judge Paul Dedinsky and Judge Dan Gabler -- lose by at least 20 percentage points.— Daniel Bice (@DanielBice) <a href="https://twitter.com/DanielBice/status/1249837663970111488?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 13, 2020</a></blockquote> </div> </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1586820730000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586820730000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586820730000"> Monday, Apr 13, 2020 · 11:32:10 PM +00:00 · Steve Singiser </a> <div class="live-update-content">We have a second county that is 100% reported, and it is one of the normally conservative strongholds: Ozaukee County. Hagedorn won it 63-37 last year. Kelly wins it this year 56-44. Huge shift. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1586820769000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586820769000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586820769000"> Monday, Apr 13, 2020 · 11:32:49 PM +00:00 · Steve Singiser </a> <div class="live-update-content">Ohhhhhhh my….. <div class="dk-editor-embed center-block" data-twitter-content='&lt;blockquote class="twitter-tweet"&gt;&lt;p lang="en" dir="ltr"&gt;BREAKING: &lt;a href="https://twitter.com/judgekarofsky?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw"&gt;@judgekarofsky&lt;/a&gt; campaign tells me she&amp;#39;s declaring victory. &lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Full statement expected soon.&lt;/p&gt;&amp;mdash; JR Ross (@jrrosswrites) &lt;a href="https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1249841864800440320?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw"&gt;April 13, 2020&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt; '><div class="remove-embed-content">x</div><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">BREAKING: <a href="https://twitter.com/judgekarofsky?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@judgekarofsky</a> campaign tells me she's declaring victory. Full statement expected soon.— JR Ross (@jrrosswrites) <a href="https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1249841864800440320?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 13, 2020</a></blockquote> </div> </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1586821370000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586821370000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586821370000"> Monday, Apr 13, 2020 · 11:42:50 PM +00:00 · Steve Singiser </a> <div class="live-update-content">As the vote tally progresses, we are seeing a number of counties where we now have 100% reporting. And the common thread—the conservative incumbent is running anywhere between 3-7% behind the performance of Judge Hagedorn (who won with just 50% of the vote last year). This one isn’t over yet, but it’s as close as you can get without balloons and confetti. </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1586821521000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586821521000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586821521000"> Monday, Apr 13, 2020 · 11:45:21 PM +00:00 · Steve Singiser </a> <div class="live-update-content">The challenger is, indeed, declaring victory! <div class="dk-editor-embed center-block" data-twitter-content='&lt;blockquote class="twitter-tweet"&gt;&lt;p lang="en" dir="ltr"&gt;Judge Jill Karofsky’s statement on tonight’s election results: &lt;a href="https://t.co/IbVNAboEmB"&gt;pic.twitter.com/IbVNAboEmB&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&amp;mdash; Judge Jill Karofsky (@judgekarofsky) &lt;a href="https://twitter.com/judgekarofsky/status/1249844449708068873?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw"&gt;April 13, 2020&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt; '><div class="remove-embed-content">x</div><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">Judge Jill KarofskyÃ¢Â€Â™s statement on tonightÃ¢Â€Â™s election results: <a href="https://t.co/IbVNAboEmB">pic.twitter.com/IbVNAboEmB</a>— Judge Jill Karofsky (@judgekarofsky) <a href="https://twitter.com/judgekarofsky/status/1249844449708068873?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 13, 2020</a></blockquote> </div> </div> </div> <div> <a name="update-1586821800000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1586821800000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1586821800000"> Monday, Apr 13, 2020 · 11:50:00 PM +00:00 · David Nir </a> <div class="live-update-content"><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/13/1936915/-Live-Coverage-Wisconsin-Supreme-Court-election" target="_blank">The liveblog concludes here</a>. </div> </div> rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) DailyKosElections DKELiveblogs Recommended Wisconsin _1936916 Mon, 13 Apr 2020 23:02:10 +0000