David Nir https://www.dailykos.com/user/David Nir/rss/index.xml News Community Action Copyright 2005 - Steal what you want Sat, 17 Nov 2018 01:37:44 +0000 Sat, 17 Nov 2018 01:37:44 +0000 Daily Kos rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos) Daily Kos rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos) Bad day for Bruce: Republican loses suit to block instant runoff, then loses instant runoff, too https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/11/15/1813201/-Bad-day-for-Bruce-Republican-loses-suit-to-block-instant-runoff-then-loses-instant-runoff-too <p>Election officials in Maine tabulated the results of the country's first-ever instant runoff for Congress on Thursday, determining that Democrat Jared Golden defeated Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin <a href="http://www.sunjournal.com/lewistons-jared-golden-wins-maine-congressional-district-2-race/" title="">by a narrow 50.5-49.5 margin</a> after the second-choice preferences of voters who cast ballots for two third-party candidates were taken into account. Poliquin had led 46.4 to 45.5 on the initial balloting, but 65 percent of those who voted for independents Tiffany Bond and Will Hoar elected to mark a second choice. That group overwhelmingly transferred their votes to Golden, <a href="https://twitter.com/stevemistler/status/1063123249163370497">who won second-choice ballots by a 69-31 margin</a>, allowing him to edge ahead of Poliquin.</p> <p>Golden, a Marine veteran who served in both Iraq and Afghanistan, gives House Democrats<a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZwL51WmRmqnHAoaIQj96pP_Psd7HYEDn5HBPDubJy3s/edit#gid=1839533189" target="_blank"> their 37th flip</a> this cycle, <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZwL51WmRmqnHAoaIQj96pP_Psd7HYEDn5HBPDubJy3s/edit#gid=2097408799" target="_blank" title="">with five races still uncalled</a> at press time. This race saw heavy spending, but Golden prevailed even though northern Maine’s rural 2nd District veered sharply away from Democrats in 2016, voting for Donald Trump 51-41 after supporting Barack Obama 53-44 four years earlier. Remarkably, that makes Poliquin <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/15/us/politics/poliquin-maine-loses.html" target="_blank">the first incumbent to lose this seat since 1916</a>.</p> <p>Of course, the soon-to-be-ex-congressman is extremely bitter about this turn of events, even though Mainers twice voted to require runoffs in such races, and all candidates participated in this election knowing the system they'd be operating under. Nevertheless, Poliquin waited until after Election Day to file a lawsuit challenging the system, but just ahead of the tabulation on Thursday, the judge hearing the case, Lance Walker, <a href="https://bangordailynews.com/2018/11/15/politics/judge-denies-poliquins-request-to-stop-ranked-choice-count-as-decision-nears/" title="">sharply rejected Poliquin's request</a> for a restraining order to block the instant runoff and declare him the winner.</p> <p>Walker <a href="https://bangordailynews.com/2018/11/15/politics/read-judge-walkers-decision-to-continue-with-ranked-choice-count/">specifically noted</a> that Poliquin's position would deprive all of Bond's and Hoar's voters of what they understood to be their right to be counted—that is, their right to be able to cast a second-choice ballot and have that tallied if their first-choice candidates were knocked out. Walker concluded by saying that Poliquin's remedy does not lie with the courts but rather would be "to petition the political branch to change the law"—in other words, call your congressman.</p> <p>Poliquin says <a href="https://bangordailynews.com/2018/11/15/politics/judge-denies-poliquins-request-to-stop-ranked-choice-count-as-decision-nears/">he plans to forge ahead</a> with his challenge regardless, but if legal norms hold, his odds of success look poor. Of course, that's a big "if" nowadays, given the makeup of the Supreme Court, but it's worth noting that Walker is a Trump appointee.</p> <p class="is-empty-p"></p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) BrucePoliquin JaredGolden ME-02 Recommended _1813201 Thu, 15 Nov 2018 22:44:53 +0000 Democrat Andy Kim defeats Tom MacArthur, who tried to kill Obamacare but only killed his own career https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/11/14/1812880/-Democrat-Andy-Kim-defeats-Tom-MacArthur-who-tried-to-kill-Obamacare-but-only-killed-his-own-career <p>There goes another one! On Wednesday afternoon, <a href="https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1062793756313837575" title="">the AP called the race</a> in New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District for Democrat Andy Kim, who leads Republican Rep. Tom MacArthur 49.9 to 48.8. Remarkably, Kim's victory means that Democrats will now hold an 11-to-1 advantage in the Garden State's congressional delegation, the biggest edge the party has enjoyed <a href="https://www.nj.com/data/2018/11/these_4_maps_show_how_a_democratic_blue_wave_washed_over_nj.html" title="">since 1912</a>.</p> <p>Kim's win was the fourth red-to-blue flip in New Jersey this year, and the most difficult. Though Barack Obama had carried the 3rd 52-47, it moved to the right in 2016, giving Trump a 51-45 win. What's more, this district, located in South Jersey, has always had a pronounced Republican lean further down the ballot: Democrat Jon Adler captured it as an open seat in 2008 but lost it just one term later, and it had remained comfortably in GOP hands ever since—until now.</p> <p>A big part of the reason was MacArthur himself. Last year, he gained widespread notoriety—and the deep enmity of progressives everywhere—when <a href="https://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2018/07/macarthur_claims_he_protected_pre-existing_conditi.html">he authored an amendment</a> that would have allowed insurers to eviscerate coverage for those with pre-existing conditions, allowing the House's once-dead Obamacare repeal effort to pass (it later failed in the Senate). He also was the lone New Jersey Republican <a href="http://www.burlingtoncountytimes.com/news/20180930/rep-tom-macarthur-lone-nj-yes-on-tax-reform-20">to vote in favor of the GOP's tax giveaway</a>, which hurt many taxpayers in his district by limiting the amount of state and local taxes they could deduct on their federal returns.</p> <p>Kim, a former national security advisor to Barack Obama, was able to capitalize on both, and he proved to be a very strong fundraiser—critical both because the wealthy MacArthur was able to self-fund seven figures, and because this district straddles two very expensive media markets, New York City and Philadelphia. Kim will now become the second Korean-American ever to serve in Congress, and the first to do so as a Democrat.</p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) andykim NJ-03 Recommended TomMacArthur _1812880 Wed, 14 Nov 2018 20:33:28 +0000 House Republican begins his last term by whining about life in the minority https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/11/14/1812832/-House-Republican-begins-his-last-term-by-whining-about-life-in-the-minority <p>Election Day was scarcely a week ago, but we already have our first retirement of the <em>next</em> election cycle. In fairness, Republican Rep. Rob Bishop <a href="https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2017/08/25/rep-rob-bishop-hosts-town-hall-in-layton/">announced last year</a> that this term would be his last—a term he easily and predictably secured <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/utah-house-district-1">in a rout</a>, given the deep red hue of Utah's 1st District. (<a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">It voted 50-22</a> for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton, with conservative independent Evan McMullin just a hair behind and also at 22, and Mitt Romney won here 77-20 four years earlier.) While he’s sure to be replaced by a fellow Republican, progressives will be glad to see him go: For the last four years, he’s wielded the gavel on the Natural Resources Committee, despite <a href="http://scorecard.lcv.org/moc/rob-bishop" target="_blank" title="">a 2 percent lifetime score</a> from the League of Conservation Voters.</p> <p>Of course, politicians who make promises like these often change their minds, but this isn't some long-ago term limits pledge that Bishop, who's 67 and first won office in 2002, is hoping voters will now forget. While he doesn't appear to have re-iterated his plans to step down since the election, <a href="https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/11/11/rep-rob-bishop-give-up/">Bishop did recently give an interview</a> to the <em>Salt Lake Tribune</em> in which he complained how much it sucked to get cast into the minority after Democrats took the House in 2006. Now that the same thing has happened again, he says he's "not going in with a whole lot of anticipation of something being very positive," so he definitely doesn't sound like someone who wants to stick around.</p> <p>Bishop could certainly still reverse course, but that would be news if he does. In the meantime, local Republicans politicians—of which there's no shortage—are undoubtedly plotting their moves to succeed the congressman, though our old friend <a href="https://politicaldictionary.com/words/the-great-mentioner/" title="">the Great Mentioner</a> has yet to make an appearance. In any event, Bishop wins the honor of being the first member of Congress <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12RhR9oZZpyKKceyLO3C5am84abKzu2XqLWjP2LnQDgI/edit#gid=2000399069">to appear on our 2020 House open seat tracker</a>, though since many of his colleagues will wind up sharing his feelings about life in the minority, he's certain not to be the last.</p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) RobBishop UT-01 _1812832 Wed, 14 Nov 2018 18:18:05 +0000 Capped by Kyrsten Sinema's win, Democrats had a very, very good night in Arizona https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/11/12/1812417/-Capped-by-Kyrsten-Sinema-s-win-Democrats-had-a-very-very-good-night-in-Arizona <p>On Monday night, following a ballot drop that increased her margin to over 38,000 votes, <a href="https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1062143663835353089">the AP declared Rep. Kyrsten Sinema the winner</a> of Arizona's hard-fought Senate race, making her the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in the Grand Canyon State in 30 years. Though Sinema trailed Republican Rep. Martha McSally on election night, ballots counted after Election Day consistently favored her, allowing her to <a href="https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0">leg out to a margin of 49.7 to 48.0</a> at the time the race was called.</p> <p>This seat became open when Republican Sen. Jeff Flake decided to retire after a single term, recognizing that he could no longer win a GOP primary after being on the receiving end of heaps of abuse from Donald Trump. What passes for the Republican establishment these days then rallied around McSally, who beat two ultra-extreme opponents, former state Sen. Kelli Ward and the disgraced ex-sheriff of Maricopa County, Joe Arpaio, to capture the GOP nomination. Sinema, meanwhile, won the Democratic primary with little opposition, despite her transformation from a one-time Green Party member to a member of the conservative Blue Dog Coalition.</p> <p>Both parties spent heavily, and the race was a tossup the whole way through—a remarkable enough development on its own, given Democrats' long drought in Arizona. (Until Monday, they <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1REYGxQTXblXMHmWuyRiYbbaRlhezrFmMfyNJQwGioYU/edit#gid=711118416">hadn't won a statewide race of any kind</a> here in a decade.) But this very diverse state reacted poorly to Trump, holding him to a 48-45 win that was the poorest showing for a Republican presidential candidate since 1996.</p> <p>That marked the latest step in a gradual transformation that saw Democrats put together their strongest election night in Arizona in a very long time. In addition to powering Sinema to a win, this latest ballot update also moved Democrat Katie Hobbs <a href="https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0">into a 5,667-vote lead</a> over Republican Steve Gaynor in the race for secretary of state, and she's likely to keep it. This post is doubly important because, in addition to serving as the state's top election administrator, the secretary of state is also next in line for the governorship. (Arizona has no lieutenant governor.) <a href="https://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/who-is-steve-gaynor-gop-candidate-arizona-secretary-state-voter-id-10958608" title="">Four of the state's last nine governors</a> have, in fact, been elevated from this position.</p> <p>On top of that, shortly after their Sinema call, the AP announced Democrat Kathy Hoffman <a href="https://www.azfamily.com/news/ap-democrat-kathy-hoffman-to-be-arizona-s-next-schools/article_bc31118a-e6e1-11e8-b454-4bbe270c3d01.html">as the winner</a> of the race for superintendent of public instruction, a position Democrats last held in the mid-1990s. Sandra Kennedy <a href="https://www.azcentral.com/story/money/business/energy/2018/11/12/arizona-corporation-commission-update-vote-counting-sandra-kennedy-justin-olson-rodney-glassman/1978899002/">is also poised to win a seat</a> on the corporation commission, which regulates utilities, making her the only Democrat on the five-member board.</p> <p>On the legislative level, Democrats picked up four seats in the state House, slicing the Republican majority to a narrow 31-29 margin. And while Democrats did not make gains in the Senate (which Republicans held 17-13 heading into the election), one GOP-held seat remains uncalled, and there are <a href="https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1062152861948141569">still some 172,000 ballots left to count</a> statewide. Both chambers will assuredly be top targets for Democrats in 2020.</p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) Arizona AZ-Sen Recommended _1812417 Tue, 13 Nov 2018 02:06:10 +0000 Here's how you can help in the Florida recounts https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/11/11/1812107/-Here-s-how-you-can-help-in-the-Florida-recounts <p>Recounts in three ultra-tight statewide races—for senator, governor and agriculture commissioner—are underway in Florida, and Democrats need your help. Sen. Bill Nelson and gubernatorial nominee Andrew Gillum are both seeking volunteers to assist with what will be a massive statewide operation, and the need for attorneys is particularly acute. If you’re in Florida or are able to go, here’s how you can help:</p> <blockquote> <p><strong>Bill Nelson</strong>: <a href="http://nelsonforsenate.com/recount-lawyer" target="_blank">Sign up here if you are an attorney</a> | <a href="http://nelsonforsenate.com/recount-vol" target="_blank" title="">Sign up here if you are not an attorney</a></p> <p><strong>Andrew Gillum</strong>: Attorneys: Email <a href="mailto:volunteer@andrewgillum.com">volunteer@andrewgillum.com</a> with your name, count(ies) you can assist in, days available this week, best phone number, and best email address</p> </blockquote> <p>If you’re not able to volunteer, you can support the recount efforts <a href="https://secure.actblue.com/donate/dkendorsesflrecount?refcode=20181112fsdn1" target="_blank">by donating to Gillum’s PAC, Forward Florida</a>. Please share this information as widely as possible.</p> <p class="is-empty-p"></p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) AndrewGillum BillNelson FL-Gov FL-Sen Florida Recommended Recount _1812107 Mon, 12 Nov 2018 01:06:58 +0000 Another Democratic pickup! Harley Rouda defeats 'Putin's favorite congressman,' Dana Rohrabacher https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/11/10/1811904/-Another-Democratic-pickup-Harley-Rouda-defeats-Putin-s-favorite-congressman-Dana-Rohrabacher <p>Tremendous news! Late on Saturday night, after the latest batch of votes to be counted <a href="https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1061424310278021120" target="_blank">extended his lead</a>, the Associated Press <a href="https://twitter.com/politicoelex/status/1061432762559881216" target="_blank">called the race</a> in California’s 48th Congressional District for Democrat Harley Rouda. With this win, Rouda has defeated none other than Dana Rohrabacher, the Republican <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/putin-congress-rohrabacher-trump-231775" target="_blank">best known as “Putin’s favorite congressman,”</a> thanks to an embarrassing affinity for Russian autocracy matched only by Donald Trump’s.</p> <p>Rouda’s victory gives Democrats <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZwL51WmRmqnHAoaIQj96pP_Psd7HYEDn5HBPDubJy3s/edit#gid=692076271" target="_blank">their 35th flip</a> (and 33rd net gain) of the 2018 midterms, and with seven races still uncalled, more pickups are looming. Rohrabacher’s loss also cements a profound shift in Orange County, which for the better part of a century had been the blood-red citadel of California conservatism. But like many other affluent and well-educated suburban areas around the country, it reacted with great hostility to Trump, and now voters there are punishing his abettors in the Republican Party. May this trend continue to spread.</p> <p class="is-empty-p"></p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) CA-48 DanaRohrabacher HarleyRouda Recommended _1811904 Sun, 11 Nov 2018 02:10:39 +0000 Democrats score historic win in suburban Atlanta House seat as GOP incumbent concedes https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/11/8/1811346/-Democrats-score-historic-win-in-suburban-Atlanta-House-seat-as-GOP-incumbent-concedes <p>In a victory as amazing as it is sweet, Democrat Lucy McBath <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/08/politics/2018-elections-lucy-mcbath-karen-handel-concedes-georgia-congress/index.html">has defeated Republican Rep. Karen Handel</a> in Georgia's 6th Congressional District—a seat made famous, of course, by last year's special election. McBath led Handel 50.5 to 49.5, a margin of almost 3,000 votes, as of Thursday morning, prompting Handel to concede.</p> <p>This seat was historically Republican—very, very Republican—voting for Mitt Romney by a wide 61-38 margin in 2012. However, the affluent and well-educated Atlanta suburbs gave Donald Trump a hostile reception and held him to a narrow 48-47 win over Hillary Clinton. That opened a door for Jon Ossoff, an investigative filmmaker and first-time candidate who energized a massive grassroots army and raised tens of millions of dollars for the special election prompted by GOP Rep. Tom Price's resignation in early 2017.</p> <p>Ossoff ultimately fell short against Handel, losing 52-48. But he <a href="https://politics.myajc.com/news/local/former-ossoff-volunteers-try-make-democratic-gains-red-suburbs/HqAgbczuu2WDSh54rVDR7L/" title="">left an important legacy</a>: By organizing voters in an area that Democrats had never previously competed in, he helped lay the groundwork for the next race—and McBath capitalized on it in tremendous fashion.</p> <p><a href="https://broadly.vice.com/en_us/article/3k98yb/the-eyes-of-the-world-are-on-democratic-candidate-lucy-mcbath">As Ossoff himself noted</a>, McBath was "a really strong candidate," emphasizing, "I can't take credit for her strength." A former flight attendant, McBath's son, Jordan Davis, was murdered by a gunman in an apparent hate crime in 2012, a tragedy that spurred her to become an outspoken gun safety activist. She'd initially intended to run for local office but wound up running for Congress, though after Ossoff's loss, the 6th District still looked like a long-shot target that might not quite have been ready to change hands.</p> <p>But McBath's strong campaign made this race competitive once again, and she received a major boost via millions in outside spending from the group Everytown for Gun Safety, for which she had been a spokesperson. That prompted the NRCC to make its own seven-figure buy to save Handel, but it wasn't enough. Last year, what Ossoff dubbed the "hot-take caldera" insisted that Democrats couldn't win the House if they couldn't win Georgia's 6th; now, thanks to McBath, they've won the House—and Georgia's 6th.</p> <p class="is-empty-p"></p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) GA-06 KarenHandel LucyMcBath Recommended _1811346 Thu, 08 Nov 2018 23:16:00 +0000 How enormous was 2018? Democrats have picked up the most House seats since Watergate https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/11/8/1811290/-How-enormous-was-2018-Democrats-have-picked-up-the-most-House-seats-since-Watergate <p>So far, Democrats <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZwL51WmRmqnHAoaIQj96pP_Psd7HYEDn5HBPDubJy3s/edit#gid=692076271" target="_blank">have flipped 34 Republican-held House seats</a> in the 2018 midterms. Because the GOP only won two Democratic seats, that means Democrats have netted, at the moment, 32 seats in total. Here’s how huge that number is:</p> <p><strong>It’s the largest number of seats Democrats have won in a single election since Watergate.</strong></p> <p>In 1974, following Richard Nixon's resignation, voters punished Republican corruption with a vengeance, sending 49 new members to join the House Democratic caucus. While Democrats won’t reach quite that height this year, <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZwL51WmRmqnHAoaIQj96pP_Psd7HYEDn5HBPDubJy3s/edit#gid=2097408799" target="_blank" title="">there are still eight uncalled races</a>—all in GOP-held seats—meaning they could net as many as 40 seats. That would make this the fourth-best Democratic year <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/vitalstats_ch2_tbl3.pdf" target="_blank" title="">since World War II</a>.</p> <p>And two years after Watergate, of course, voters rewarded Democrats with the presidency. With an even more astonishingly corrupt Republican sitting in the White House, with any luck, history will repeat itself.</p> <p class="is-empty-p"></p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) House Recommended Watergate _1811290 Thu, 08 Nov 2018 20:10:12 +0000 Democratic Sen. Jon Tester wins in Montana https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/11/7/1809828/-Democratic-Sen-Jon-Tester-wins-in-Montana <p>Democratic Sen. Jon Tester has defeated Republican Matt Rosendale to win a third term representing Montana.</p> <p class="is-empty-p"></p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) 2018 JonTester MT-Sen _1809828 Wed, 07 Nov 2018 18:03:53 +0000 Democrat Steve Sisolak wins race for governor in Nevada, flipping seat blue https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/11/6/1809877/-Democrat-Steve-Sisolak-wins-race-for-governor-in-Nevada-flipping-seat-blue <p>Democrat Steve Sisolak has beaten Republican Adam Laxalt to win the Nevada governorship, flipping this seat from red to blue.</p> <p class="is-empty-p"></p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) 2018 NV-Gov _1809877 Wed, 07 Nov 2018 07:47:46 +0000 Jacky Rosen defeats Sen. Dean Heller, flips Nevada seat blue! https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/11/6/1809829/-Jacky-Rosen-defeats-Sen-Dean-Heller-flips-Nevada-seat-blue <p>Rep. Jacky Rosen, a Daily Kos endorsee, has defeated Republican Sen. Dean Heller in Nevada, flipping this seat from red to blue!</p> <p class="is-empty-p"></p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) 2018 JackyRosen NV-Sen _1809829 Wed, 07 Nov 2018 07:33:59 +0000 Democrat Tony Evers defeats Scott Walker to win Wisconsin governor's race! https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/11/6/1809880/-Democrat-Tony-Evers-defeats-Scott-Walker-to-win-Wisconsin-governor-s-race <p>Finally! Democrat Tony Evers, a Daily Kos endorsee, has beaten Republican Gov. Scott Walker, denying Walker a third term and flipping Wisconsin’s governorship to the Democrats.</p> <p class="is-empty-p"></p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) 2018 WI-Gov _1809880 Wed, 07 Nov 2018 07:26:47 +0000 Rick Scott defeats Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson in Florida https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/11/6/1809841/-Rick-Scott-defeats-Democratic-Sen-Bill-Nelson-in-Florida <p>Republican Rick Scott has defeated incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson in Florida.</p> <p class="is-empty-p"></p> <div> <a name="update-1541603124000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1541603124000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1541603124000"> <span class="timestamp " data-localize-time="" data-epoch-time="1541603124000" data-time-zone="+0000" data-time-format="%A, %b %-d, %Y · %l:%M:%S %p %Z">Wednesday, Nov 7, 2018 · 3:05:24 PM +00:00</span> · <span class="live-update-user">Barbara Morrill</span> </a> <div class="live-update-content"><p class="is-empty-p"></p> <div class="dk-editor-embed center-block" data-twitter-content='&amp;lt;blockquote class="twitter-tweet"&amp;gt;&amp;lt;p lang="en" dir="ltr"&amp;gt;And away we go - &amp;lt;a href="https://twitter.com/NelsonForSenate?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw"&amp;gt;@NelsonForSenate&amp;lt;/a&amp;gt; put out a statement - says that &amp;lt;a href="https://twitter.com/ScottforFlorida?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw"&amp;gt;@ScottforFlorida&amp;lt;/a&amp;gt; prematurely declared victory. &amp;amp;quot;We are proceeding to a recount,&amp;amp;quot; Nelson said.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;&amp;amp;mdash; Gary Fineout (@fineout) &amp;lt;a href="https://twitter.com/fineout/status/1060184930133663744?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw"&amp;gt;November 7, 2018&amp;lt;/a&amp;gt;&amp;lt;/blockquote&amp;gt; '><div class="remove-embed-content">x</div><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>And away we go - <a href="https://twitter.com/NelsonForSenate?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@NelsonForSenate</a> put out a statement - says that <a href="https://twitter.com/ScottforFlorida?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ScottforFlorida</a> prematurely declared victory. "We are proceeding to a recount," Nelson said.</p>— Gary Fineout (@fineout) <a href="https://twitter.com/fineout/status/1060184930133663744?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 7, 2018</a></blockquote> </div> <p class="is-empty-p"></p> </div> </div> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) 2018 BillNelson FL-Sen RickScott _1809841 Wed, 07 Nov 2018 05:20:26 +0000 Josh Hawley has defeated Sen. Claire McCaskill in Missouri https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/11/6/1809838/-Josh-Hawley-has-defeated-Sen-Claire-McCaskill-in-Missouri <p>Republican Josh Hawley has defeated incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill in Missouri.</p> <p class="is-empty-p"></p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) 2018 ClaireMcCaskill JoshHawley MO-Sen _1809838 Wed, 07 Nov 2018 04:52:58 +0000 Nancy Pelosi declares victory, says Democrats retake the House! https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/11/6/1809891/-Nancy-Pelosi-declares-victory-says-Democrats-retake-the-House <p>Riding an enormous wave of grassroots enthusiasm, along with stellar candidate recruitment that saw record numbers of women and people of color run for Congress, Democrats have retaken the majority in the House of Representatives!</p> <p class="is-empty-p"></p> <div> <a name="update-1541566082000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1541566082000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1541566082000"> <span class="timestamp " data-localize-time="" data-epoch-time="1541566082000" data-time-zone="+0000" data-time-format="%A, %b %-d, %Y · %l:%M:%S %p %Z">Wednesday, Nov 7, 2018 · 4:48:02 AM +00:00</span> · <span class="live-update-user">David Nir</span> </a> <div class="live-update-content"><p>And Democrats have now flipped a net of 24 seats in the House! Republicans still have a handful of pickup opportunities, so we could see that number tick back down, but it’s much more likely to increase, since a number of good Dem targets still remain uncalled.</p> </div> </div> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) 2018 House _1809891 Wed, 07 Nov 2018 04:43:54 +0000 Republican Mike DeWine wins Ohio governor's race, keeping seat in GOP hands https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/11/6/1809879/-Republican-Mike-DeWine-wins-Ohio-governor-s-race-keeping-seat-in-GOP-hands <p>Republican Mike DeWine has defeated Democrat Richard Cordray to hold Ohio’s governorship for the GOP.</p> <p class="is-empty-p"></p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) 2018 OH-Gov _1809879 Wed, 07 Nov 2018 04:06:11 +0000 Republican Ron DeSantis wins Florida governor's race, keeping seat in GOP hands https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/11/6/1809860/-Republican-Ron-DeSantis-wins-Florida-governor-s-race-keeping-seat-in-GOP-hands <p>Republican Rep. Ron DeSantis, a Trump fanatic, has defeated Democrat Andrew Gillum in the race for Florida governor.</p> <div> <a name="update-1541609920000"></a> </div> <div class="live-update-wrapper" data-epoch-time="1541609920000"> <a class="live-update-link" href="#update-1541609920000"> <span class="timestamp " data-localize-time="" data-epoch-time="1541609920000" data-time-zone="+0000" data-time-format="%A, %b %-d, %Y · %l:%M:%S %p %Z">Wednesday, Nov 7, 2018 · 4:58:40 PM +00:00</span> · <span class="live-update-user">Barbara Morrill</span> </a> <div class="live-update-content"><p class="is-empty-p"></p> <div class="dk-editor-embed center-block" data-twitter-content='&amp;lt;blockquote class="twitter-tweet"&amp;gt;&amp;lt;p lang="en" dir="ltr"&amp;gt;Breaking: The &amp;lt;a href="https://twitter.com/RepDeSantis?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw"&amp;gt;@RepDeSantis&amp;lt;/a&amp;gt; and &amp;lt;a href="https://twitter.com/AndrewGillum?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw"&amp;gt;@AndrewGillum&amp;lt;/a&amp;gt; fight is not over for the Florida governorship. The Gillum camp offers numbers are closer with a difference of 15 Thousand votes between the two. &amp;lt;a href="https://twitter.com/AndrewGillum?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw"&amp;gt;@AndrewGillum&amp;lt;/a&amp;gt; folks contend they are not giving up! More votes remain to be counted.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;&amp;amp;mdash; AprilDRyan (@AprilDRyan) &amp;lt;a href="https://twitter.com/AprilDRyan/status/1060196196948566017?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw"&amp;gt;November 7, 2018&amp;lt;/a&amp;gt;&amp;lt;/blockquote&amp;gt; '><div class="remove-embed-content">x</div><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Breaking: The <a href="https://twitter.com/RepDeSantis?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@RepDeSantis</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/AndrewGillum?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@AndrewGillum</a> fight is not over for the Florida governorship. The Gillum camp offers numbers are closer with a difference of 15 Thousand votes between the two. <a href="https://twitter.com/AndrewGillum?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@AndrewGillum</a> folks contend they are not giving up! More votes remain to be counted.</p>— AprilDRyan (@AprilDRyan) <a href="https://twitter.com/AprilDRyan/status/1060196196948566017?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 7, 2018</a></blockquote> </div> <p class="is-empty-p"></p> </div> </div> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) 2018 FL-Gov _1809860 Wed, 07 Nov 2018 03:58:27 +0000 Democrat Tim Walz wins Minnesota governor's race, keeping seat blue https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/11/6/1809846/-Democrat-Tim-Walz-wins-Minnesota-governor-s-race-keeping-seat-blue <p>Democratic Rep. Tim Walz has defeated Republican Jeff Johnson to keep Minnesota’s governorship in Democratic hands for four more years.</p> <p class="is-empty-p"></p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) 2018 MN-Gov _1809846 Wed, 07 Nov 2018 03:54:17 +0000 Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham wins New Mexico governor's race, flipping seat blue https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/11/6/1809853/-Democrat-Michelle-Lujan-Grisham-wins-New-Mexico-governor-s-race-flipping-seat-blue <p>Democratic Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham has prevailed over Republican Rep. Steve Pearce to win the governor’s race in New Mexico, turning this seat from red to blue.</p> <p class="is-empty-p"></p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) 2018 NM-Gov _1809853 Wed, 07 Nov 2018 03:53:24 +0000 Kevin Cramer defeats Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/11/6/1809835/-Kevin-Cramer-defeats-Democratic-Sen-Heidi-Heitkamp-in-North-Dakota <p>Republican Kevin Cramer has defeated incumbent Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota.</p> <p class="is-empty-p"></p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) 2018 HeidiHeitkamp KevinCramer ND-Sen _1809835 Wed, 07 Nov 2018 03:26:06 +0000 Ted Cruz wins in Texas https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/11/6/1809833/-Ted-Cruz-wins-in-Texas <p>Sen. Ted Cruz has won re-election in Texas.</p> <p class="is-empty-p"></p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) 2018 TedCruz TX-Sen _1809833 Wed, 07 Nov 2018 03:16:27 +0000 Democrat Gretchen Whitmer wins governor's race in Michigan, turning seat blue https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/11/6/1809845/-Democrat-Gretchen-Whitmer-wins-governor-s-race-in-Michigan-turning-seat-blue <p>Democrat Gretchen Whitmer, a Daily Kos endorsee, has defeated Republican Bill Schuette in the race for governor of Michigan, turning this red seat blue.</p> <p class="is-empty-p"></p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) 2018 MI-Gov _1809845 Wed, 07 Nov 2018 03:03:15 +0000 Democrat Laura Kelly defeats Kris Kobach to win Kansas governor's race https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/11/6/1809871/-Democrat-Laura-Kelly-defeats-Kris-Kobach-to-win-Kansas-governor-s-race <p>Democrat Laura Kelly has beaten Republican Secretary of State Kris Kobach, one of the most notorious voter suppression crusaders in the country, to flip the governorship in deep-red Kansas to the Democrats.</p> <p class="is-empty-p"></p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) 2018 KS-Gov _1809871 Wed, 07 Nov 2018 03:00:39 +0000 Democrat Jared Polis wins in Colorado, becoming first gay man to be elected governor! https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/11/6/1809850/-Democrat-Jared-Polis-wins-in-Colorado-becoming-first-gay-man-to-be-elected-governor <p>Democratic Rep. Jared Polis has defeated Republican Walker Stapleton in the race for Colorado governor, making him the first gay man to be elected governor in the United States and ensuring this seat stays blue!</p> <p class="is-empty-p"></p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) 2018 CO-Gov _1809850 Wed, 07 Nov 2018 02:37:35 +0000 Republican Marsha Blackburn wins Senate seat in Tennessee https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/11/6/1809834/-Republican-Marsha-Blackburn-wins-Senate-seat-in-Tennessee <p>Republican Marsha Blackburn has defeated Phil Bredesen in the Tennessee race to replace the retiring Sen. Bob Corker.</p> <p class="is-empty-p"></p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) 2018 MarshaBlackburn TN-Sen _1809834 Wed, 07 Nov 2018 02:05:27 +0000 Sen. Tammy Baldwin wins in Wisconsin https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/11/6/1809820/-Sen-Tammy-Baldwin-wins-in-Wisconsin <p>Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin has defeated Republican Leah Vukmir to win a second term representing Wisconsin in the Senate.</p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) 2018 WI-Sen _1809820 Wed, 07 Nov 2018 02:03:38 +0000 Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin wins in West Virginia https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/11/6/1809823/-Democratic-Sen-Joe-Manchin-wins-in-West-Virginia <p>Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin has defeated Republican Patrick Morrisey to win a second full term representing West Virginia.</p> <p class="is-empty-p"></p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) 2018 JoeManchin WV-Sen _1809823 Wed, 07 Nov 2018 02:00:37 +0000 Mike Braun defeats Sen. Joe Donnelly in Indiana https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/11/6/1809842/-Mike-Braun-defeats-Sen-Joe-Donnelly-in-Indiana <p>Republican Mike Braun has defeated incumbent Sen. Joe Donnelly in Indiana.</p> <p class="is-empty-p"></p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) 2018 IN-Sen JoeDonnelly MikeBraun _1809842 Wed, 07 Nov 2018 01:50:35 +0000 Democrat J.B. Pritzker wins race for Illinois governor, flipping seat blue https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/11/6/1809844/-Democrat-J-B-Pritzker-wins-race-for-Illinois-governor-flipping-seat-blue <p>Democrat J.B. Pritzker has defeated Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner, flipping the Illinois governorship from red to blue.</p> <p class="is-empty-p"></p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) 2018 IL-Gov _1809844 Wed, 07 Nov 2018 01:26:19 +0000 Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown wins in Ohio https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/11/6/1809818/-Democratic-Sen-Sherrod-Brown-wins-in-Ohio <p>Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown has defeated Republican Rep. Jim Renacci to win a third term representing Ohio.</p> <p class="is-empty-p"></p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) 2018 OH-Sen _1809818 Wed, 07 Nov 2018 00:54:59 +0000 Daily Kos Elections has all the resources you need for election night 2018 https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/11/5/1810180/-Daily-Kos-Elections-has-all-the-resources-you-need-for-election-night-2018 <p>At long last, Election Day is here! Daily Kos Elections has been tracking the ins and outs of the 2018 midterms every day all cycle long, and we’re very excited to finally liveblog the results, beginning when the first polls start closing at 6 PM ET tonight. To help you get ready to track the returns—and make sense of them as they come in—we’ve put together a broad array of resources you’ll want to bookmark, print out, and share with your friends:</p> <ul> <li>Our <strong><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/31/1808676/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Nov-6-2018-poll-closing-times-map" target="_blank" title="">poll closing times map</a></strong> shows you when each state’s polls close, with version for every U.S. time zone and a special version to aid the color-blind</li> <li>Our <strong><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/11/3/1809156/-The-Daily-Kos-Elections-hour-by-hour-guide-to-election-night-2018" target="_blank" title="">hour-by-hour guide to election night</a></strong> summarizes every key race for Senate, House, and governor, including those that will determine control of Congress</li> <li>Our <strong><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/11/5/1809458/-From-health-care-to-voting-rights-these-are-the-biggest-ballot-measures-to-watch-on-Election-Day" target="_blank" title="">guide to key ballot measures</a></strong> will fill you in on all the important initiatives and constitutional amendments that many states will be voting on, on a broad range of topics that include voting rights, redistricting, the environment, health care, the minimum wage, and more</li> <li>Our <strong><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/11/5/1810078/-Here-are-the-16-legislative-chambers-to-watch-that-could-change-hands-in-2018" target="_blank" title="">guide to key legislative chambers</a></strong> will walk you through all the state Senates and state Houses that could change hands on election night</li> <li>Our <strong><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/11/5/1809445/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Forecast-Democrats-poised-to-flip-House-but-little-net-change-in-the-Senate" target="_blank" title="">final forecast for the Senate, House, and governorships</a></strong> uses the Daily Kos Elections polling averages to project how many seats we think each party might win</li> <li>Our <strong>final race ratings for <a href="https://elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2018/office/senate" target="_blank" title="">Senate</a>, <a href="https://elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2018/office/house" target="_blank" title="">House</a>, and <a href="https://elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2018/office/governor" target="_blank" title="">governor</a></strong> show how competitive we think each individual contest is, as well as the final average of all publicly available polls</li> <li>Our <strong><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/11/5/1809991/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2018-county-benchmarks" target="_blank" title="">"county benchmarks"</a></strong> will help you make sense of returns as they come in by showing what percentage of the vote in key counties Democratic candidates for statewide office (and one House race in Kentucky, where polls close early) likely need to hit to win their races</li> <li>And finally, our <strong><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQROhbZ7G7lj2iEiPfof4bbYoTf8h-rDVyVLBu5g9s25qLmtl38LC5FTeQ-mmfOjlIhUg4mQteUIfKE/pubhtml#" target="_blank" title="">key race tracker</a></strong> will keep you updated on who’s won each of the important races in real time on election night</li> </ul> <p>Also, if you haven’t had the chance to enter our election prediction contest, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/11/2/1809425/-Enter-the-Daily-Kos-Elections-2018-prediction-contest-with-prizes-sponsored-by-GreensBabka-com" target="_blank" title="">there’s still time to submit your guesses</a> for a shot at winning that delicious Green's babka. Be sure <a href="https://twitter.com/DKElections" target="_blank" title="">to follow us on Twitter</a> and again, check back in <a href="http://elections.dailykos.com/" target="_blank" title="">at Daily Kos Elections</a> at 6 PM ET tonight for our liveblog. See you there!</p> <p class="is-empty-p"></p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) 2018 Elections Midterms _1810180 Mon, 05 Nov 2018 22:19:46 +0000 In tightening South Carolina race, GOP congressman won't endorse woman who ousted him in primary https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/10/30/1808495/-In-tightening-South-Carolina-race-GOP-congressman-won-t-endorse-woman-who-ousted-him-in-primary <p>With just a week left before Election Day, Republican Rep. Mark Sanford <a href="https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/mark-sanford-won-t-endorse-katie-arrington-in-sc-congressional/article_8ed9e78a-db96-11e8-ba2b-43a8bbdea13b.html" title="">is still refusing to endorse</a> state Rep. Katie Arrington, who unseated him in the GOP primary in South Carolina’s 1st Distrct earlier this year and is now facing a much tougher-than-expected campaign in the general election against Democrat Joe Cunningham.</p> <p>Sanford has long been critical of Arrington, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/7/20/1782032/-Morning-Digest-Daily-Kos-Elections-moves-five-race-ratings-all-in-Democrats-favor#35" title="">particularly over her stance on offshore oil drilling</a>: During the primary, Arrington supported the idea as a way of tying herself to Trump and attacked Sanford for not standing with her. But after Arrington secured the Republican nomination, she claimed she'd always opposed such drilling, which is widely unpopular in this coastal district with important tourism and fishing industries. After this shameless about-face, Sanford justly berated Arrington for attempting to perpetrate "a complete lie."</p> <p>While a Sanford endorsement likely wouldn't move many votes, Arrington doesn't need a #Republicansindisarray storyline dogging her in the final days of the race, particularly with signs showing Cunningham closing. On Monday, the NRCC jumped in <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/30/1808259/-Morning-Digest-Kansas-Republican-in-competitive-congressional-race-accused-of-sexual-misconduct#11" title="">with an $87,000 TV buy</a> to prop up their candidate, and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/30/us/politics/house-senate-elections.html">the <em>New York Times</em> now reports</a> that Republicans are "nervous" because the race is "tight." Arrington remains favored thanks to this district's conservative tilt, but this is yet another seat the GOP shouldn't have to worry about but is sweating anyway.</p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) SC-01 _1808495 Tue, 30 Oct 2018 16:59:32 +0000 Playing field grows as major groups start spending in seven new Republican-held House seats https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/10/29/1808187/-Playing-field-grows-as-major-groups-start-spending-in-seven-new-Republican-held-House-seats <p><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NrMWRo6NXr_ogqMIbheIilB0v1njFzp7vcylHS4O3pg/edit#gid=2063438567">Our chart tracking independent expenditures</a> by the "big four" House groups (the DCCC and House Majority PAC for Democrats; the NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund for Republicans) has been updated to include new spending over the last week. During that timeframe, the two Democratic organizations spent $25.3 million while the Republicans spent $28.3 million.</p> <p>That brings total GOP spending to $156 million, versus $117 million for Democrats. However, despite this apparent disparity favoring Republicans, it's Democrats who have the financial advantage. That's because Democratic candidates have widely outraised their Republican counterparts, and since candidates are entitled to much cheaper advertising rates than outside groups, Democrats <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/26/1807503/-Thanks-to-immense-grassroots-fundraising-Democrats-are-dominating-Republicans-on-the-airwaves" title="">have been able to air around 60 percent of all TV spots</a>.</p> <p>And as we've been chronicling, there's been significant new spending in over half a dozen Republican-held seats over the last week. That list includes <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/29/1807862/-Morning-Digest-NRCC-chair-defends-anti-Semitic-ads-the-day-after-synagogue-shooting#14" title="">California's 21st</a>, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/29/1807862/-Morning-Digest-NRCC-chair-defends-anti-Semitic-ads-the-day-after-synagogue-shooting#15" title="">Florida's 6th</a>, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/26/1807250/-Morning-Digest-House-battleground-expands-into-more-Republican-seats#2" title="">Florida's 15th</a>, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/23/1806385/-Morning-Digest-Latest-slew-of-Florida-polls-give-Democrats-reason-for-cautious-optimism#14" title="">Georgia's 6th</a>, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/18/1805181/-Morning-Digest-Daily-Kos-Elections-Q3-fundraising-chart-shows-House-Democrats-awash-in-cash#19" title="">Michigan's 6th</a>, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/24/1806693/-Morning-Digest-Vote-suppressing-GOP-candidate-concerned-if-everybody-exercises-voting-rights#21" title="">Virginia's 5th</a>, and <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/26/1807250/-Morning-Digest-House-battleground-expands-into-more-Republican-seats#5" title="">Wisconsin's 6th</a>. Note that this doesn’t include spending by other groups outside of the “big four,” but when that’s taken into account, it suggests an even wider field of seats might be in play. To stay on top of all of these developments, <a href="http://dailykos.com/electionsdigest" target="_blank">subscribe to our free newsletter</a>, the Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest.</p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) House _1808187 Mon, 29 Oct 2018 17:56:09 +0000 Top Republican defends anti-Semitic ads attacking George Soros the day after synagogue slaughter https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/10/28/1807977/-Top-Republican-defends-anti-Semitic-ads-attacking-George-Soros-the-day-after-synagogue-slaughter <p>Just a day after a gunman murdered 11 people and wounded six others at a synagogue in Pittsburgh, Republican Rep. Steve Stivers, who chairs the National Republican Congressional Committee, went on TV to defend <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/19/1805713/-Republicans-resort-to-straight-up-anti-Semitic-scaremongering-with-attack-ad-invoking-Soros" title="">anti-Semitic ads his organization has been airing</a> in a congressional race in southern Minnesota. The ads are laden with anti-Jewish tropes and portray philanthropist and Holocaust survivor George Soros, a Hungarian-born Jew, as a malign puppet-master of the left. Nevertheless, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/house-republican-campaign-chief-defends-anti-soros-ads-n925356" title="">in an appearance on a Sunday talk show</a>, Stivers repeatedly insisted the ads are "factual" and said they have "nothing to do with calling for violence."</p> <p>Of course, that's exactly the point of dog-whistles like these: They give bigots the ability to deny they're spewing hatred while speaking in coded language that white supremacists hear clearly. But much of the traditional media takes these denials at face value, helping the right to fool lots of people.</p> <p>We, however, are not fooled. Images of Soros <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/19/1805713/-Republicans-resort-to-straight-up-anti-Semitic-scaremongering-with-attack-ad-invoking-Soros" title="">surrounded by stacks of cash</a> while a narrator claims he "owns" Democrat Dan Feehan are an entirely unsubtle invocation of the hoary and hateful conspiracy theory that wealthy Jews control politics behind the scenes.</p> <p>It’s no surprise, though, that Stivers would stand behind this filth. Last week, just two days after Soros himself was the victim of an attempted mailbox bomb assassination, the NRCC <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/house-republicans-launches-new-anti-soros-ad-after-bomb-attempt-on-billionaire-democrat-donor" target="_blank" title="">began airing a second ad</a> in Minnesota’s 1st District that, yet again, featured Soros as a bogeyman. This is where we are now: Neither terrorism nor mass shootings are enough to deter Republicans from their hate-filled rhetoric.</p> <p>And the NRCC is no outlier here. <span>Last week, the Congressional Leadership Fund began running what may be the first attack ad featuring <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/mexicans-shower-the-caravan-with-kindness--and-tarps-tortillas-and-medicine/2018/10/26/b2f828b4-d7b0-11e8-8384-bcc5492fef49_story.html" title="">the migrant caravan</a> that is slowly walking toward the United States from Central America and is still 1,000 miles away. A histrionic narrator intones, "A caravan of illegal immigrants, marching toward America." (No, they are refugees fleeing from violence in their home countries.) "Over 7,000 strong," he continues, "the caravan is full of gang members and criminals." (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/10/25/caravan-phony-claims-trump-administration/" title="">There's zero evidence</a> for this.)</span></p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) CongressionalLeadershipFund DanFeehan MN-01 NRCC SteveStivers _1807977 Sun, 28 Oct 2018 23:18:33 +0000 Republicans spew hateful trash about Jews and Latinos in new ads attacking Minnesota Democrat https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/10/26/1807538/-Republicans-spew-hateful-trash-about-Jews-and-Latinos-in-new-ads-attacking-Minnesota-Democrat <p>Even though George Soros was just the target of an attempted bombing this week, the NRCC <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/house-republicans-launches-new-anti-soros-ad-after-bomb-attempt-on-billionaire-democrat-donor">is running another hateful ad</a> invoking him as a bogeyman in an attempt to undermine Democrat Dan Feehan. The spot is similar in theme <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/19/1805713/-Republicans-resort-to-straight-up-anti-Semitic-scaremongering-with-attack-ad-invoking-Soros" title="">to an overtly anti-Semitic ad</a> they recently dropped that claimed liberals and Soros "own" Feehan, except this one features cartoonish drawings instead of showing Soros sitting behind giant stacks of cash like their original ad did:</p> <figure class="image-captioned width-xl"><img alt="" class="width-xl" src="https://images.dailykos.com/images/601592/original/Screen_Shot_2018-10-19_at_3.11.50_PM.png?1539976333"> <figcaption></figcaption> </figure> <p>Hateful either way.</p> <p>Not to be outdone, the Congressional Leadership Fund is running what may be the first attack ad featuring <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/mexicans-shower-the-caravan-with-kindness--and-tarps-tortillas-and-medicine/2018/10/26/b2f828b4-d7b0-11e8-8384-bcc5492fef49_story.html">the migrant caravan</a> that is slowly walking toward the United States from Central America and is still over 1,000 miles away. A histrionic narrator intones, "A caravan of illegal immigrants, marching toward America." (No, they are refugees from violence in their home countries.) "Over 7,000 strong," he continues, "the caravan is full of gang members and criminals." (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/10/25/caravan-phony-claims-trump-administration/">There's zero evidence</a> for this.)</p> <p>"Who is tough enough to secure our borders?" he goes on. "Not Dan Feehan. In Washington, Feehan would vote with Pelosi for open borders and amnesty, putting Minnesota families at risk." Of course, "open borders" is literally not on the agenda of any member of Congress, but spewing bullshit about Jews and Latinos is definitely on the GOP's.</p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) CongressionalLeadershipFund DanFeehan GeorgeSoros MN-01 NRCC _1807538 Fri, 26 Oct 2018 22:57:50 +0000 The House playing field continues to expand into Republican turf, with new activity in four seats https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/10/25/1807238/-The-House-playing-field-continues-to-expand-into-Republican-turf-with-new-activity-in-four-seats <p>With less than two weeks to go before Election Day, the House playing field appears to be expanding deeper into Republican turf as the GOP scrambles to defend seats that hadn't previously been at the top of Democratic target lists. In the last day alone, there've been notable developments in at least four Republican-held districts spread across the country.</p> <p>● <strong>FL-15</strong>: Talking Points Memo reports that the Congressional Leadership Fund, which has the deepest pockets of any group on the right, <a href="https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/house-republicans-dropping-big-money-to-shore-up-seats-once-viewed-as-safe" title="">is swooping in with a $500,000 ad buy</a> to help Republican Ross Spano ward off Democrat Kristen Carlson in Florida's open 15th District. The move comes just a couple of days after the DCCC jumped into the race <a href="https://twitter.com/PeterSchorschFL/status/1054519192882438144" title="">with a reported $400,000 expenditure</a>. So far, the committee has filed reports with the FEC showing <a href="http://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00000935/1279353/se" title="">they've spent $150,000 on airtime</a>. A recent pair of independent polls have the race for this 53-43 Trump seat <a href="https://elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2018/office/house/state/FL/district/15">neck-and-neck</a>.</p> <p>● <strong>NC-09</strong>: For the first time, the NRCC is moving into North Carolina's 9th District, where Democrat Dan McCready is putting up a stiff fight for this open 54-43 Trump seat. The committee <a href="https://twitter.com/MurphinDC/status/1055491830031269890" title="">is reportedly devoting $800,000</a> to ads here, though the CLF had already spent heavily in this district—<a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NrMWRo6NXr_ogqMIbheIilB0v1njFzp7vcylHS4O3pg/edit#gid=282604753" title="">at least $1.2 million</a>. The DCCC and House Majority PAC have together spent about $1 million, but McCready himself has made up the gap by outraising Republican Mark Harris by a wide margin.</p> <p><a href="https://elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2018/office/house/state/NC/district/09" title="">An early October Siena poll</a> put Harris ahead 47-42, but a SurveyUSA poll that was in the field simultaneously had McCready ahead 45-41.</p> <p>● <strong>WA-03</strong>: In another, even bigger first, the NRCC is reportedly parachuting into Washington's 3rd District <a href="https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/house-republicans-dropping-big-money-to-shore-up-seats-once-viewed-as-safe" title="">with a hefty $800,000 buy</a> to protect GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler. What makes this particularly notable is that this is the first serious outside spending from any of the "big four" House groups (on both sides). The House Majority PAC has, so far, spent only $52,000 here, though EMILY's List has put in $406,000 to help Democrat Carolyn Long.</p> <p><a href="https://elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2018/office/house/state/WA/district/03" title="">A recent Siena poll</a> gave Herrera Beutler a 48-41 lead, but a Democratic internal taken just days earlier had Long up 45-43. This seat went for Trump 50-43.</p> <p>● <strong>WI-06</strong>: Glenn Grothman is panicking. On a recent conference call with party leaders, <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/24/republicans-sweat-pre-existing-coniditions-attacks-936613">Politico reports</a>, the Republican congressman begged for help in responding to harsh ads from Democrat Dan Kohl attacking Grothman for voting to eliminate protections from people with pre-existing conditions. "You're on your own," Grothman was told. Unnamed Democrats tell Politico that, thanks in part to these attacks, the race is "tightening," though there's been <a href="https://elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2018/office/house/state/WI/district/06">not a single public poll</a> of this contest.</p> <p>However, in a first, the House Majority PAC recently announced <a href="http://www.thehousemajoritypac.com/news/press-releases/in-final-two-weeks-hmp-launches-media-blitz-in-16-districts-coast-to-coast">it would devote $294,000 to this race</a> and has reported <a href="http://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00495028/1280960/se" title="">spending $137,000 on TV ads</a> so far. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fjdc_wTCCug">Their spot</a>, unsurprisingly, also goes after Grothman on healthcare. Despite Grothman's flop-sweat, Republicans may have concluded his position is secure, but we'll soon see if they're forced to change their minds. This seat, which includes Fond du Lac and Sheboygan, went for Trump 56-39.</p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) FL-15 NC-09 WA-03 WI-06 _1807238 Thu, 25 Oct 2018 21:32:35 +0000 Republicans resort to straight-up anti-Semitic scaremongering with attack ad invoking 'Soros' https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/10/19/1805713/-Republicans-resort-to-straight-up-anti-Semitic-scaremongering-with-attack-ad-invoking-Soros <p>It's as though the NRCC said to their big brothers at the Congressional Leadership Fund, "We see your naked racism and we raise you a screeching anti-Semitic dog-whistle." The committee's <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GyMkH7WfTS0">newest ad</a> in Minnesota's 1st Congressional District attacking Democrat Dan Feehan starts off with a photo of a kneeling Colin Kaepernick, with the narrator berating "[p]rima donna athletes protesting our anthem," but then it quickly leaves black folks behind to scare voters up about Da Jooz.</p> <p>"Left-wing mobs paid to riot in the streets," warns the narrator. "Billionaire George Soros bankrolls the resistance—and Dan Feehan," with a photo of Soros literally sitting behind stacks and stacks of money. "Feehan's employed by a Soros-funded liberal outfit in D.C. His campaign? Propped up by out-of-state super PACs backed by Soros' millions." That's three references to "Soros," whose name has replaced "Rothschild" in the fever swamps of the right, in just 12 seconds.</p> <p>The spot finishes in the same way: "So when you see Feehan pushing government-run healthcare, higher taxes, amnesty—just remember: The left owns Feehan." At this moment, Soros' visage again appears, hovering at the top of the screen above an image of Feehan who himself is now surrounded by piles of cash. It's an entirely unsubtle conjuration of the hoary and hateful lie that wealthy Jews are the puppet-masters of the left, because of course, decent white folk would never espouse liberal beliefs unless they were getting paid to do so. It's totally disgusting, but Republicans are waging an internal arms race to see who can plaster the most bigotry on the airwaves. Right now, the NRCC is winning.</p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) DanFeehan GeorgeSoros MN-01 NRCC _1805713 Fri, 19 Oct 2018 19:13:31 +0000 Here's what happens when campaigns try to knock misleading third-party ads off the air https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/10/15/1804584/-Here-s-what-happens-when-campaigns-try-to-knock-misleading-third-party-ads-off-the-air <p>Democrat Kathy Manning, who is running against Republican Rep. Ted Budd in North Carolina’s 13th Congressional District, says her campaign has succeeded in getting two local TV stations <a href="https://kathymanning2018.com/blog/2018/10/13/update-pro-ted-budd-pac-forced-to-pull-false-ad-by-wxii-and-fox-8-over-lies-about-kathy-manning/">to stop airing an ad</a> from America First Action, a pro-GOP super PAC, that she calls "inaccurate and misleading." The spot, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J4GSym54p4I">which is still available online</a>, claims Manning and her husband "got nearly $2 million in government money" to help pay for a "luxury hotel." Manning says her family never "received a dime of taxpayer money" for the project and also adds that she has no involvement in the hotel (so once again, we're seeing an ad that tries to hold a woman responsible for something her husband has done).</p> <p>Evidently, the lawyers at the two TV stations in question, WXII and FOX 8, agreed with Manning's take and decided to reject AFA's ads. We haven't actually seen this sort of thing transpire all that often this cycle, so this is a good opportunity to explain why third-party ads are vulnerable to getting taken down like this.</p> <p>Under federal law, broadcasters cannot censor or refuse to air ads from candidates as long as they're paid for. (Earlier this year, a TV station in New Mexico <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/5/14/1764032/-Morning-Digest-National-Democrats-back-Harley-Rouda-to-avoid-a-top-two-shutout-in-California-s-48th#14" title="">had to run a spot</a> from a Democrat who started his ad by saying, "Fuck the NRA.”) Consequently, because they have no choice, stations have successfully argued that they should not be liable as publishers if they're ever sued for defamation for anything said in a candidate ad. But they're under no similar obligation to run ads from outside groups, which means that in those cases, they are potentially liable for defamation.</p> <p>Knowing this, campaigns try to hunt down inaccuracies (real or perceived) in third-party ads and demand that broadcasters stop airing them, with the stated or unstated threat that if they fail to comply, they could find themselves on the receiving end of a lawsuit. Whether or not such suits would ever succeed, TV and radio stations have to think hard every time as to whether they want to incur legal costs should a campaign ever follow through. WXII and Fox 8 decided the answer was "no."</p> <p>But not all broadcasters immediately roll over every time they get a lawyer letter. No one likes being bullied, but more to the point, these companies want the ad revenue. That's why they typically have their own legal departments review grievances like these to assess their merit. If they wind up disagreeing with the complainants, then they'll tell them to get lost and will keep running the ad in question.</p> <p>It's also worth noting that sometimes, when a station nukes an ad, the group airing it will edit out or rephrase the offending material and then try to re-air it. But given that AFA's ad is entirely focused on claims that two TV stations have concluded are false, it may be hard to do that here. If AFA, which recently reported <a href="http://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00637512/1267706/se" title="">spending $602,000 on airtime</a> for this, still has money left over for its current flight, it might just choose to run a different spot.</p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) 2018 Ads AmericaFirstAction Elections KathyManning Recommended _1804584 Mon, 15 Oct 2018 19:58:36 +0000 Which seats make up the House battleground? Our new outside spending tracker can show you https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/10/15/1804484/-Which-seats-make-up-the-House-battleground-Our-new-outside-spending-tracker-can-show-you <p>With Election Day three weeks away, we’re rolling out our newest tool to help keep tabs on the large playing field that will determine control of the House: <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NrMWRo6NXr_ogqMIbheIilB0v1njFzp7vcylHS4O3pg/edit?usp=sharing" target="_blank">a spreadsheet that sums up the independent expenditures</a> made prior to Monday by the four largest groups involved in House races. With this data, you can see which contests the major players think are competitive, and how much money they’ve devoted to each one, so far.</p> <p>Before diving in, there are several important things to be aware of:</p> <ul> <li>This sheet <strong>only</strong> covers expenditures made by the DCCC, the House Majority PAC, the NRCC, and the Congressional Leadership Fund (HMP and CLF are both super PACs). Many other organizations have spent millions on House races. However, these other groups are largely focused on the same set of races as the Big Four, so looking at what the top four groups are doing gives us a good sense of the battleground while avoiding information overload—though there can be exceptions, since priorities don't always sync up perfectly even among entities supporting the same side.</li> <li>Even if a district hasn’t seen much or any third-party money come in yet, it could still get added to this list before Election Day. By the same token, seats can change hands even if there’s little or no outside spending—for all their access to polls, analytics, and other data, these groups are by no means infallible in predicting which races will be the most competitive.</li> <li>It also only covers <strong>past</strong> expenditures, which outside groups are required to report to the FEC. It does not account for upcoming spending, including TV ad reservations. Those are generally only available in (often fragmentary) media reports. It’s generally a safe bet, though, that most of these races will see continued spending all the way through Election Day. Some, however, will get triaged (or have already been), <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eQEqbOOjrJqVkXBpCQRy61kCk9CImTl8DTT8wvrRI9w/edit#gid=0" target="_blank">which we keep track of separately</a>.</li> <li>Not all dollars are created equal. If you spend $1 million in Minneapolis, that will buy a lot more ads than the same amount spent in New York City, where advertising is much more expensive.</li> <li>The sheet does not include spending on special elections or primaries, or districts where total outside spending from the Big Four groups is less than five figures.</li> </ul> <p>New independent expenditure reports keep rolling in all the time (groups generally have to file them within 48 or 24 hours of actually spending their money), and the pace will only quicken as we approach Election Day. We’ll therefore update <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NrMWRo6NXr_ogqMIbheIilB0v1njFzp7vcylHS4O3pg/edit#gid=340728279" target="_blank">our chart</a> each Monday and note any key developments.</p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) 2018 CongressionalLeadershipFund DCCC Elections House HouseMajorityPAC independentexpenditures NRCC _1804484 Mon, 15 Oct 2018 17:21:25 +0000 Triaged Iowa Republican releases 'I'm not dead yet!' poll ... that shows him losing https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/10/12/1803994/-Triaged-Iowa-Republican-releases-I-m-not-dead-yet-poll-that-shows-him-losing <p><strong>Polls</strong>: Today’s House polls:</p> <ul> <li><strong><a href="https://elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2018/office/house/state/AZ/district/01">AZ-01</a></strong><span>: </span><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WsjHg4xpadSGP0neqIh3HGKDhj8qKu_q/view">Go Right Strategies</a><span> (R) for Wendy Rogers: Wendy Rogers (R): 44, Tom O'Halleran (D-inc): 38 (Sept.: 39-36 Rogers)</span></li> <li><strong><a href="https://elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2018/office/house/state/FL/district/27">FL-27</a></strong><span>: </span><a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article219862165.html" title="">Mason Dixon</a><span> for Telemundo: Maria Elena Salazar (R): 44, Donna Shalala (D): 42</span></li> <li><strong><a href="https://elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2018/office/house/state/IA/district/01">IA-01</a></strong><span>: </span><a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/390724284/The-Polling-Company-October-2018-IA-01" title="">The Polling Company</a><span> (R) for Rod Blum and the NRCC: Abby Finkenauer (D): 44, Rod Blum (R-inc): 43</span></li> <li><strong><a href="https://elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2018/office/house/state/NJ/district/03">NJ-03</a></strong><span>: </span><a href="https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/macarthur-narrowly-ahead-new-jerseys-3rd-district-poll-shows/">National Research</a><span> (R) for Tom MacArthur: Tom MacArthur (R-inc): 44, Andy Kim (D): 40</span></li> <li><strong><a href="https://elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2018/office/house/state/NV/district/04">NV-04</a></strong><span>: </span><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6GFPYVZDvCdMFNFSmxocEF4S2hQSGxyXzJTV2drUGRLNzF3/view">Moore Information</a><span> (R): Cresent Hardy (R): 41, Steven Horsford (D): 37 (Aug.: 41-41 tie)</span></li> <li><strong><a href="https://elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2018/office/house/state/UT/district/04">UT-04</a></strong><span>: </span><a href="https://drive.google.com/open?id=1NDiGU0t-oxbkgH8dT8EPibqsGmD42Bpn">Mellman Group</a><span> (D) for Ben McAdams: Ben McAdams (D): 47, Mia Love (R-inc): 46 (Aug.: 46-44 Love)</span></li> </ul> <p>In Arizona’s 1st, the DCCC has spent $1 million to protect O’Halleran, but neither the NRCC nor the Congressional Leadership Fund has stepped in to help Rogers. That’s one reason to disbelieve her polling. Another is the comically threadbare memo from Go Right Strategies (go ahead and click it), which embarrassingly refers to the Democrat as “Invisible Tom” when listing out its results. No serious pollster does that. Also, this poll, like their last, only sampled landlines.</p> <p>In Florida’s 27th, Mason Dixon provides the first independent poll we’ve seen, which buttresses the widely reported notion that Shalala is not in the kind of shape she should be in a district that voted for Hillary Clinton 59-39. However, once again, the major GOP groups aren’t playing here, while on the Democratic side, the House Majority PAC has spent a relatively small $152,000. It’s also worth noting that this poll gives Trump a 43-46 approval rating, which seems very high for a seat he lost so badly.</p> <p>In Iowa’s 1st, this survey (from Trump caretaker Kellyanne Conway’s old firm) is almost the definition of an “I’m not dead yet!” poll—the kind you release when yeah, you really are pretty much a goner. Not only did a Siena poll last month give Finkenauer a giant 52-37 lead, but Blum’s campaign <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eQEqbOOjrJqVkXBpCQRy61kCk9CImTl8DTT8wvrRI9w/edit#gid=0" target="_blank">has been triaged</a>: Neither the NRCC nor the CLF has reserved time here, and the DCCC cancelled almost all of its spending for this district.</p> <p>In New Jersey’s 3rd, MacArthur’s poll is the first to give him the lead after the last two public surveys put Kim ahead, the most recent being a Siena poll last month that had Kim up 49-39. Outside groups on both sides have spent oodles here: Republicans $3 million and Democrats $3.4 million.</p> <p>In Nevada’s 4th, we haven’t seen any independent polling here at all. This is another district where both sides are spending heavily, with $2.3 million from the NRCC and $2.6 million from Democratic groups, including the DCCC and House Majority PAC. There will be plenty more to come.</p> <p>Finally, in Utah’s 4th, this is the first-ever poll to show McAdams leading—and this race has been polled an unusually large number of times. The numbers come right on the heels of CLF making its first foray into the race, as well as the DCCC reserving ad time for the final week before Election Day.</p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) AZ-01 FL-27 IA-01 NJ-03 NV-04 UT-04 _1803994 Fri, 12 Oct 2018 21:52:03 +0000 We can make Republican senators—including Collins, Graham &amp; McConnell—pay for Kavanaugh NOW https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/10/6/1801989/-We-can-make-Republican-senators-including-Collins-Graham-amp-McConnell-pay-for-Kavanaugh-NOW <p>Republican senators just voted to confirm the right-wing fanatic, conspiracy theorist, perjurer, and alleged sexual predator Brett Kavanaugh for a lifetime appointment to the United States Supreme Court. It’s a horrific outcome, perpetrated on the American people by a gang of GOP senators who represent a minority of the country—and by admitted predator Donald Trump, who of course lost the popular vote.</p> <figure class="image-captioned width-sm"><a href="https://secure.actblue.com/donate/dkendorsesantikav?refcode=20181005fscollinsthermometer" title=""><img alt="Goal Thermometer" src="https://secure.actblue.com/x/object/actblue-badges/page/dkendorsesantikav/thermometer/dark.png"></a> <figcaption></figcaption> </figure> <p>These Republicans, though, think they can hide from the fact that they’re forcing Kavanaugh on the majority of the country that doesn’t want him, because most of them won’t have to face voters for another two or four years. But they’re wrong: We <em>can</em> punish them, right now. Here’s how:</p> <p>Two of the Republicans who voted for Kavanaugh are up for re-election next month: Nevada Sen. Dean Heller and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. Both are neck-and-neck in the polls with their Democratic opponents. Daily Kos has already endorsed both these Democrats.</p> <p>In 2020, more than a half-dozen other Republicans who backed Kavanaugh will be up for re-election in potentially competitive states. That election may be two years away, but we have a special tool we can use <em>today</em> to make these Republicans pay: ActBlue’s Democratic nominee funds. You can donate right now to these funds, which will hold all the money they raise in escrow until after each state's Democratic primary, then transfer all those funds to that state's Democratic nominee for the general election.</p> <p><strong><a href="https://secure.actblue.com/donate/dkendorsesantikav?refcode=20181005fscollins" target="_blank">Make them pay: Donate $1 right now to each of the Democratic candidates and nominee funds targeting vulnerable Senate Republicans running in 2018 and 2020 who just put Brett Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court.</a></strong></p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) BrettKavanaugh Recommended Senate SupremeCourt _1801989 Sat, 06 Oct 2018 20:16:01 +0000 Want to make Republican senators—including Susan Collins—pay for Brett Kavanaugh RIGHT NOW? https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/10/5/1801911/-Want-to-make-Republican-senators-including-Susan-Collins-pay-for-Brett-Kavanaugh-RIGHT-NOW <p>Republican Sen. Susan Collins <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/5/1801873/-Collins-finally-ends-the-suspense-says-she-ll-vote-yes-like-she-promised-McConnell-weeks-ago" target="_blank" title="">just announced her support</a> for confirming right-wing fanatic, conspiracy theorist, perjurer, and alleged sexual predator Brett Kavanaugh to the United States Supreme Court for life. This all but guarantees Kavanaugh's confirmation. It’s a horrific outcome, perpetrated on the American people by a gang of GOP senators who represent a minority of the country—and by admitted predator Donald Trump, who of course lost the popular vote.</p> <figure class="image-captioned width-sm"><a href="https://secure.actblue.com/donate/dkendorsesantikav?refcode=20181005fscollinsthermometer" title=""><img alt="Goal Thermometer" src="https://secure.actblue.com/x/object/actblue-badges/page/dkendorsesantikav/thermometer/dark.png"></a> <figcaption></figcaption> </figure> <p>These Republicans, though, think they can hide from what they’re doing, because most of them won’t have to face voters for another two or four years. But they’re wrong: We <em>can</em> punish them, right now. Here’s how:</p> <p>Two of the Republicans who support Kavanaugh are up for re-election next month: Nevada Sen. Dean Heller and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. Both are neck-and-neck in the polls with their Democratic opponents. Daily Kos has already endorsed both these Democrats.</p> <p>In 2020, more than a half-dozen other Republicans who back Kavanaugh will be up for re-election in potentially competitive states. That election may be two years away, but we have a special tool we can use <em>today</em> to make these Republicans pay: ActBlue’s Democratic nominee funds.You can donate right now to these funds, which will hold all the money they raise in escrow until after each state's Democratic primary, then transfer all those funds to that state's Democratic nominee for the general election.</p> <p><strong><a href="https://secure.actblue.com/donate/dkendorsesantikav?refcode=20181005fscollins" target="_blank" title="">Make them pay: Donate $1 right now to each of the Democratic candidates and nominee funds targeting vulnerable Senate Republicans running in 2018 and 2020 who want to put Brett Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court.</a></strong></p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) BrettKavanaugh Senate SusanCollins _1801911 Fri, 05 Oct 2018 20:01:37 +0000 Here's how to keep track of which House races have been triaged—but there are plenty of caveats https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/10/4/1801569/-Here-s-how-to-keep-track-of-which-House-races-have-been-triaged-but-there-are-plenty-of-caveats <p>As we enter the stretch run of the 2018 midterms, we're rolling out <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eQEqbOOjrJqVkXBpCQRy61kCk9CImTl8DTT8wvrRI9w/edit#gid=0" title="">a new spreadsheet</a> that attempts to track which House races the big-money players have decided to triage—either because they feel supremely confident, or because they've concluded their candidate is doomed. These developments, however, are very tricky to stay on top of. That's partly because data on TV ad reservations, which is the best tell, can be fragmentary. Major outside groups can also change their minds and jump back into a race they'd previously abandoned.</p> <p>Then there's the fact that, in the post-<em>Citizens United</em> era, the party committees that used to call the shots now compete with giant super PACs—at least on the GOP side. To date, the Congressional Leadership Fund, which is closely linked to House Speaker Paul Ryan, has spent about $64 million this cycle, twice the $32 million spent by the NRCC. (The DCCC continues to be the major player on the Democratic side.) That's turned the NRCC into the junior partner this year, and it's <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/9/18/1796454/-Morning-Digest-GOP-gets-stuck-with-indicted-congressman-in-New-York-giving-Democrats-an-opening#17" title="">led to some friction</a> between the two organizations, whose priorities have lately have diverged somewhat.</p> <p>As a result, we've seen a few contests where either the CLF or the NRCC—but not both—have quit the field. It could mean they're strategically divvying up the field, or it could mean that one group has given up on the race in question and is rolling its eyes at its counterpart's refusal to face up to reality. For that reason, we're only willing to conclude that a Republican-held seat has truly been triaged if we know both groups have walked away from it—though again, there's still plenty of time for decisions like that to get reversed (something we have in fact seen in previous election cycles).</p> <p>And as you <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eQEqbOOjrJqVkXBpCQRy61kCk9CImTl8DTT8wvrRI9w/edit#gid=0">scan our tracker</a>, bear in mind that there's a "good kind" of triage, too, which we alluded to above: Sometimes parties cancel ad reservations (or never make any in the first place) because they think a seat is secure. That appears to be the case in California's 21st District, where the NRCC previously cancelled October ad time because they reportedly feel good about GOP Rep. David Valadao's chances. These are just all things to bear in mind as you—and we—keep our eyes on which races have been triaged and which are still competitive as we draw close to Election Day.</p> <p class="is-empty-p"></p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) House triage _1801569 Thu, 04 Oct 2018 20:05:50 +0000 Early voting has begun! Here's when it starts (and ends) in every state https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/10/2/1800834/-Early-voting-has-begun-Here-s-when-it-starts-and-ends-in-every-state <p>Voting early has grown increasingly popular across the country in recent years, and in some states, the early voting period for the Nov. 2018 midterms has already begun. Below, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Early_voting_dates_by_state,_2018" target="_blank">courtesy Ballotpedia</a>, you can see when early voting starts and ends in all of the states where it’s available.</p> <div class="table-wrapper"> <table class="dk5-table" width="371" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" align="center"> <thead> <tr> <th>State</th> <th>Start</th> <th>End</th> <th></th> <th>State</th> <th>Start</th> <th>End</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>Alaska</td> <td align="right">22-Oct</td> <td align="right">5-Nov</td> <td></td> <td>Montana</td> <td align="right">9-Oct</td> <td align="right">5-Nov</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alabama</td> <td class="AlignCenter" colspan="2">None</td> <td></td> <td>North Carolina</td> <td align="right">17-Oct</td> <td align="right">3-Nov</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arkansas</td> <td align="right">22-Oct</td> <td align="right">5-Nov</td> <td></td> <td>North Dakota</td> <td align="right">27-Sep</td> <td align="right">5-Nov</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arizona</td> <td align="right">10-Oct</td> <td align="right">2-Nov</td> <td></td> <td>Nebraska</td> <td align="right">9-Oct</td> <td align="right">5-Nov</td> </tr> <tr> <td>California</td> <td align="right">8-Oct</td> <td align="right">5-Nov</td> <td></td> <td>New Hampshire</td> <td class="AlignCenter" colspan="2">None</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Colorado</td> <td align="right">5-Oct</td> <td align="right">6-Nov</td> <td></td> <td>New Jersey</td> <td align="right">22-Sep</td> <td align="right">5-Nov</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Connecticut</td> <td class="AlignCenter" colspan="2">None</td> <td></td> <td>New Mexico</td> <td align="right">20-Oct</td> <td align="right">3-Nov</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Delaware</td> <td class="AlignCenter" colspan="2">None</td> <td></td> <td>Nevada</td> <td align="right">20-Oct</td> <td align="right">2-Nov</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Florida</td> <td align="right">27-Oct</td> <td align="right">3-Nov</td> <td></td> <td>New York</td> <td class="AlignCenter" colspan="2">None</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Georgia</td> <td align="right">15-Oct</td> <td align="right">2-Nov</td> <td></td> <td>Ohio</td> <td align="right">10-Oct</td> <td align="right">5-Nov</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Hawaii</td> <td align="right">23-Oct</td> <td align="right">3-Nov</td> <td></td> <td>Oklahoma</td> <td align="right">1-Nov</td> <td align="right">3-Nov</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Iowa</td> <td align="right">8-Oct</td> <td align="right">5-Nov</td> <td></td> <td>Oregon</td> <td align="right">17-Oct</td> <td align="right">6-Nov</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Idaho</td> <td align="right">22-Oct</td> <td align="right">2-Nov</td> <td></td> <td>Pennsylvania</td> <td class="AlignCenter" colspan="2">None</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Illinois</td> <td align="right">27-Sep</td> <td align="right">5-Nov</td> <td></td> <td>Rhode Island</td> <td class="AlignCenter" colspan="2">None</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Indiana</td> <td align="right">10-Oct</td> <td align="right">5-Nov</td> <td></td> <td>South Carolina</td> <td class="AlignCenter" colspan="2">None</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kansas</td> <td align="right">17-Oct</td> <td align="right">5-Nov</td> <td></td> <td>South Dakota</td> <td align="right">21-Sep</td> <td align="right">5-Nov</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kentucky</td> <td class="AlignCenter" colspan="2">None</td> <td></td> <td>Tennessee</td> <td align="right">17-Oct</td> <td align="right">1-Nov</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Louisiana</td> <td align="right">23-Oct</td> <td align="right">30-Oct</td> <td></td> <td>Texas</td> <td align="right">22-Oct</td> <td align="right">2-Nov</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Massachusetts</td> <td align="right">22-Oct</td> <td align="right">2-Nov</td> <td></td> <td>Utah</td> <td align="right">23-Oct</td> <td align="right">2-Nov</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Maryland</td> <td align="right">25-Oct</td> <td align="right">1-Nov</td> <td></td> <td>Virginia</td> <td class="AlignCenter" colspan="2">None</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Maine</td> <td align="right">8-Oct</td> <td align="right">1-Nov</td> <td></td> <td>Vermont</td> <td align="right">21-Sep</td> <td align="right">5-Nov</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Michigan</td> <td class="AlignCenter" colspan="2">None</td> <td></td> <td>Washington</td> <td align="right">19-Oct</td> <td align="right">6-Nov</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Minnesota</td> <td align="right">21-Sep</td> <td align="right">5-Nov</td> <td></td> <td>Wisconsin</td> <td class="AlignCenter" colspan="2">Varies by locality</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Missouri</td> <td class="AlignCenter" colspan="2">None</td> <td></td> <td>West Virginia</td> <td align="right">24-Oct</td> <td align="right">3-Nov</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mississippi</td> <td class="AlignCenter" colspan="2">None</td> <td></td> <td>Wyoming</td> <td align="right">27-Sep</td> <td align="right">5-Nov</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <p>Note that in some states, “early voting” may be referred to by another name (most commonly “in-person absentee voting”), and <a href="http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/absentee-and-early-voting.aspx" target="_blank">procedures for casting ballots early can vary</a>, so please check with local election officials.</p> <p>Early voting is a great option for many people, allowing them to participate in the democratic process at a time that’s convenient for them. It also helps reduce lines on Election Day. And it can be a boon for campaigns, too, letting them lock in support early so that they can focus on winning over other voters. Not every state permits early voting, but every state should.</p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) 2018 EarlyVoting Elections _1800834 Tue, 02 Oct 2018 19:18:29 +0000 Strip-club owner piloted Republican Senate candidate around Ohio on private plane dozens of times https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/9/27/1799306/-Strip-club-owner-piloted-Republican-Senate-candidate-around-Ohio-on-private-plane-dozens-of-times <p>This is simply one of those <a href="http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180926/senate-candidate-jim-renacci-uses-strip-club-owners-private-plane-to-campaign-in-ohio" title="">"we can't do better than the headline" moments</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>Senate candidate Jim Renacci uses strip-club owner's private plane to campaign in Ohio</p> </blockquote> <p>And still, several details make this story even weirder and more problematic than even the headline alone can convey. For starters, the club owner, Don Ksiezyk, didn't just loan his plane to Renacci: He's a licensed pilot in his own right and appears to have repeatedly ferried Renacci around the state himself, according to flight records that the <em>Columbus Dispatch</em> matched with the dates and times of Renacci's campaign events as shown in his Twitter feed.</p> <p>In fact, it appears that Ksiezyk served as aerial chauffer to Renacci at least two dozen times, and possibly more. We can't know the true total, though, because Renacci's campaign has refused to offer any substantive comments, and Ksiezyk won't talk at all. However, we do know that Renacci has reimbursed Ksiezyk just $2,500 for the 13 flights he took in the first half of the year, which of course is far less than it would cost to fly this many times commercial, let alone private. (The other dozen or so flights have taken place since July, a period for which Renacci has yet to file campaign finance reports.)</p> <p>Renacci's campaign against Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown was already going poorly: <a href="https://elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2018/office/senate/state/OH">He trails badly in the polls</a>, and outside Republican groups are doing almost nothing to help him. But why should they? As this latest development shows, he's not doing much to help himself, either.</p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) JimRenacci OH-Sen _1799306 Thu, 27 Sep 2018 20:17:34 +0000 Pennsylvania Republican invests campaign funds in the markets—and loses hundreds of thousands https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/9/26/1798931/-Pennsylvania-Republican-invests-campaign-funds-in-the-markets-and-loses-hundreds-of-thousands <p>Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf has been in strong shape for re-election all cycle, and he continued his dominance <a href="https://www.pennlive.com/news/2018/09/gov_tom_wolf_leads_challenger.html" title="">by widely outraising his Republican challenger</a>, state Sen. Scott Wagner, over the last several months. But the most amazing detail to come out of the candidates' new financial reports is the fact, uncovered by Daily Kos contributing editor Adam Bonin, that Wagner <a href="https://twitter.com/adambonin/status/1044938804400988160" title="">reported losing $631,000 in campaign funds</a> between June 5 and Sept. 17 thanks to unsuccessful investments in a brokerage account.</p> <p>As Bonin notes, it's astoundingly irresponsible to invest donor money, as Wagner's huge losses show. In fact, an earlier report saw Wagner's investments drop by astounding $1.5 million, though in other periods, he's seen gains—but that's exactly the point: The extreme volatility of investing in securities poses a huge risk to funds that contributors are entrusting to you. What's more, the stock market has made solid gains this year (the S&amp;P 500 <a href="https://money.cnn.com/data/markets/sandp/">is up over 9 percent in 2018</a>), so how in the hell did Wagner manage to lose so much money while most investors were doing well?</p> <p>Wagner both gambled with his campaign funds (which he shouldn't have done) and lost big (which seemingly only he was capable of). For a struggling campaign, that can't possibly make donors happy.<a name="update-1537982164000"></a></p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) PA-Gov ScottWagner TomWolf _1798931 Wed, 26 Sep 2018 18:08:21 +0000 New York primary preview: Cuomo in strong position against progressive challenge from Nixon https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/9/12/1795282/-New-York-primary-preview-Cuomo-in-strong-position-against-progressive-challenge-from-Nixon <p>Thursday brings us the last primary of 2018, though it’s actually the second primary of the year for New Yorkers, who already chose nominess in federal races back in June. This week’s elections are only for state and local office, a unique and unfortunate state of affairs <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/4/24/1759552/-Why-does-New-York-still-have-two-separate-primaries-Blame-cynical-GOP-lawmakers" target="_blank">that has a complicated origin</a> but a simple solution. (Republicans in the legislature, however, have refused to sign off on Democratic proposals to consolidate the two.) The primary was also bumped to Thursday because Tuesday, when it normally would have been held, coincided with both 9/11 and Rosh Hashanah.</p> <p>Polls close at 9 PM ET, and our <span><span><span><span><span>guide to the key races to watch Tuesday is below. We also invite you to join us at <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/blogs/elections/">Daily Kos Elections</a> that night for our liveblog starting when polls close, and you can <a href="https://twitter.com/DKElections">follow our coverage on Twitter</a> as well.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p>● <strong>NY-Gov (D)</strong>: Hoping to ride a wave of progressive discontent with the way New York has been governed the last eight years, actress and activist Cynthia Nixon launched a challenge to Gov. Andrew Cuomo in March and skillfully used her celebrity to earn media attention and pressure Cuomo from the left. But while the " Cynthia effect" did succeed in pushing Cuomo to publicly adopt more liberal policy positions, it never helped Nixon get close in the polls.</p> <p>In part, that was because Nixon's grassroots fundraising was no match for Cuomo's massive, corporate-financed war chest: <a href="https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/news/politics/albany/2018/09/05/andrew-cuomo-campaign-spent-8-million-last-three-weeks/1201750002/">During a recent-three week period</a>, the governor outspent his opponent $8.5 million to $450,000 and was a constant presence on TV. Nixon only went on the air two days before the Democratic primary, and the last public survey, conducted by Siena just a week ago, found Cuomo ahead 63-22. The winner will take on Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro in November. We rate the general election Safe Democratic.</p> <p>● <strong>NY-AG (D)</strong>: Eric Schneiderman's resignation in May in the wake of allegations that he'd sexually assaulted multiple women created an unexpected open race for attorney general, a powerful post that Schneiderman used to harry Donald Trump and which any Democratic successor of his will use to the same ends. Barbara Underwood, who was appointed to fill the vacant post, isn't running for a full term, but three notable Democrats are: New York City Public Advocate Tish James, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, and law professor Zephyr Teachout.</p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) 2018primarypreview _1795282 Wed, 12 Sep 2018 20:00:53 +0000 Three new House polls of vulnerable Republican seats all find neck-and-neck races https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/9/7/1794139/-Three-new-House-polls-of-vulnerable-Republican-seats-all-find-neck-and-neck-races <p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/06/upshot/midterms-2018-polls-live.html" title="">In an interesting new experiment</a>, the <em>New York Times</em> has partnered with Siena College to poll almost 100 House races, with the results getting updated on the <em>Times</em> website live as each interview is concluded. That means, of course, that while a poll is in the field, the early numbers won't be useful and in fact should be disregarded, since they'll reflect sample sizes that are too small; even the <em>Times</em> itself grays out early results and warns, "Don't take this poll seriously until we reach at least 150 people." We recommend waiting until these polls reach 300 respondents, which is generally considered the minimum acceptable number for any poll.</p> <p>Fortunately, we already have full results for the first three contests that Siena has polled (you can see polls <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-polls.html" title="">that are in progress here</a>). All show extremely tight races in GOP-held seats:</p> <ul> <li><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-ca48-1.html" title="">CA-48</a>: Harley Rouda (D): 45, Dana Rohrabacher (R-inc): 45</li> <li><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-il06-1.html" title="">IL-06</a>: Sean Casten (D): 44, Peter Roskam (R-inc): 45</li> <li><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-il12-1.html" title="">IL-12</a>: Brendan Kelly (D): 43, Mike Bost (R-inc): 44</li> </ul> <p>In a move that's rare but shouldn't be, the <em>Times</em> also cautions at the top of each write-up, "But remember: It's just one poll." That's always been our mantra: A poll is just a single piece of data, and it should never be taken as gospel but rather read in conjunction with all other available information, including other polls.</p> <p>So what do other polls of these races say? Well, there haven't been many, but in July, Monmouth found a similarly close battle in California's 48th, with Rouda ahead 46-43. By contrast, in Illinois' 6th, another July poll for a Republican firm, Victory Research, which said it doesn't have a client in the race, gave a wider lead to Roskam, putting him up 44-37 on Casten. And in Illinois 12th, we haven't seen any surveys since April, when Public Policy Polling found Bost up 44-39 on behalf of a Democratic super PAC. (In fact, if you scroll down toward the bottom of each poll, you'll see the <em>Times</em> has included summaries of these other polls.)</p> <p>In all three cases, the <em>Times</em> concludes, "Our poll result is about what was expected," and we agree: Everything we know suggests these races should be competitive, and indeed they are. One thing to note, though, is that while the horserace is neck and neck in each of these districts, Trump’s approval rating varies quite a bit. He puts up a lousy 40-54 score in California’s 48th and a brutal 36-57 in Illinois' 6th, both of which he lost in 2016. However, in Illinois’ 12th, which he carried 55-40 two years ago, he’s predictably doing better, with a 48-46 rating.</p> <p><strong><a href="https://secure.actblue.com/donate/dkendorses2018house?refcode=20180907fsdn" target="_blank" title="">Numbers like these show we can win back the House. Give $3 to help Democrats do just that! </a></strong></p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) CA-48 IL-06 IL-12 _1794139 Fri, 07 Sep 2018 22:01:22 +0000 Republican super PAC uses ill-gotten security application to attack Democrat in new TV ad https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/9/6/1793867/-Republican-super-PAC-uses-ill-gotten-security-application-to-attack-Democrat-in-new-TV-ad <p>Disgusting: Even though the United States Postal Service admitted to disclosing Democrat Abigail Spanberger's application for federal security clearance <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/8/31/1792227/-Morning-Digest-Monkey-it-up-Republican-also-moderator-of-racist-Facebook-group#18" title="">in error and asked for it back</a>, the Congressional Leadership Fund has gone ahead and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-4BMUHpbsA" title="">released an attack ad</a> that nevertheless makes use of those ill-gotten documents. It's unadulterated fearmongering bullshit:</p> <blockquote> <p>What is Abigail Spanberger hiding? Spanberger doesn't want us to know that she taught at an Islamic school nicknamed "Terror High"—a terrorist breeding ground. One graduate plotted to assassinate President Bush. Another was arrested for trying to bring a butcher knife on an airplane. So dangerous, even Chuck Schumer called for the school to be shut down. But Abigail Spanberger cashed her paychecks like nothing was wrong.</p> </blockquote> <p>Spanberger taught English as a substitute teacher at the Islamic Saudi Academy in Northern Virginia in 2002 and 2003, while she waited on the CIA to process her job application. <a href="https://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/government-politics/conservative-pac-attacks-spanberger-in-tv-ad-for-teaching-at/article_48dd094c-f19f-543d-89b7-eeca5392ea70.html" title="">As the <em>Richmond Times-Dispatch</em> notes</a>, that was many years before the incidents cited in CLF's ad, and as Spanberger herself points out, the CIA soon thereafter hired her as an officer and granted her top secret security clearance—not something the agency would have done had it had concerns about her background.</p> <p>This attack would be garbage even if it didn't rely on improperly obtained materials, but CLF has no problem playing as dirty as it gets with both means and message. We can only conclude they're rolling around in this deep gutter because they're genuinely worried that Spanberger will defeat Republican Rep. Dave Brat in Virginia’s 7th District this November.</p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) AbigailSpanberger CongressionalLeadershipFund VA-07 _1793867 Thu, 06 Sep 2018 21:58:36 +0000 Why did Jon Kyl, John McCain's replacement, say he might quit as soon as January? Here's a theory https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/9/4/1793193/-Why-did-Jon-Kyl-John-McCain-s-replacement-say-he-might-quit-as-soon-as-January-Here-s-a-theory <p>On Tuesday, Republican Gov. Doug Ducey <a href="https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2018/09/04/jon-kyl-named-john-mccain-replacement-senate-appointment-ducey/1148030002/" title="">selected former Sen. Jon Kyl</a> to fill the vacant Senate seat left behind by John McCain, who died last month. Kyl, 76, served three terms in the Senate, during which he compiled an extremely conservative voting record and ultimately joined the top ranks of GOP leadership before retiring ahead of the 2012 elections. Kyl also <a href="https://washingtonmonthly.com/2011/04/09/not-intended-to-be-a-factual-statement/">earned a measure of infamy</a> in 2011 when, after wrongly declaring that abortion services were "well over 90 percent of what Planned Parenthood does," his office anticipated the Trump era and claimed his comment "was not intended to be a factual statement."</p> <p>Kyl's appointment would last until 2020, when a special election would be held for the final two years of McCain's term, followed by a regular election for a six-year term in 2022. But not only did Kyl say <a href="https://twitter.com/reenaninan/status/1037025922245951488" target="_blank">he wouldn’t run for office again</a>, he may not even last the full two years: <a href="https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1037025786845388800" target="_blank" title="">Kyl also said</a> he has committed to serving "through at least the second session of the 115th Congress," i.e., the current session of Congress, which ends on Jan. 3. That abbreviated timeframe would nevertheless give him the chance to vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court—a process for which Kyl rather conveniently <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/09/politics/jon-kyl-supreme-court-sherpa/index.html" title="">has been Kavanaugh's so-called "sherpa."</a></p> <p>Whether Kyl sticks around beyond that may depend on Ducey's fate. Ducey faces a competitive re-election challenge this year from Democrat David Garcia, so if Ducey loses, that would probably incline Kyl to stay put lest Garcia get to pick a replacement. (<a href="https://www.azleg.gov/viewdocument/?docName=http://www.azleg.gov/ars/16/00222.htm">Under Arizona law</a>, Garcia would be required to pick someone "of the same political party as the person vacating the office," but the statute offers no specifics beyond that, so he could choose a Republican in name only.) Of course, in that scenario, Kyl could bail just before Garcia were to be sworn in, giving Ducey a second crack.</p> <p>But why the short commitment from Kyl in the first place? It's hard to say, but here's a theory: If GOP Rep. Martha McSally, who is running for Kyl's old Senate seat (now open thanks to Sen. Jeff Flake's retirement), loses this fall to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, Ducey could then appoint her in Kyl's stead. McSally would then be able to run in the special election in 2020 as the incumbent. We'll just have to see what happens in November.</p> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) AZ-Sen DougDucey JonKyl MarthaMcSally Recommended _1793193 Tue, 04 Sep 2018 18:02:27 +0000