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Tonight, voters go to to the polls in party primaries Kentucky and Philadelphia, and for a mayoral runoff in Jacksonville, Florida. Our guide to the key races can be found here. Polls start to close in the Eastern time zone portion of Kentucky at 6 PM ET, and we'll be bringing you tonight's results as they come in.

Results & Poll Closing Times (all times Eastern):

Kentucky (6 PM & 7 PM) | Jacksonville (7 PM) | Philadelphia (8 PM)

Tue May 19, 2015 at 5:18 PM PT: We're waiting for an AP call, but WLEX has projected that Matt Bevin will be the GOP nomination in this year's Kentucky gubernatorial race. In Jacksonville, it looks likely that Republican Lenny Curry has narrowly unseated Democratic incumbent Alvin Brown. We're still waiting for our first results from Philadelphia.

Tue May 19, 2015 at 5:20 PM PT: KY-Gov: 81 percent reporting and Bevin's lead over Heiner has widened to 34-29, with Comer at 29 also. Comer may be able to take second place but since there's no runoff, it would only be a moral victory.

Tue May 19, 2015 at 5:27 PM PT: Philadelphia Mayor: Initial results coming in at the Philly elections site.

Tue May 19, 2015 at 5:32 PM PT: KY-Gov: 86 percent in and Bevin leads Comer 34-30, with Heiner now taking third with 29. Given how ugly this got, Comer would probably relish a second place finish even though it gets him nothing electorally.

Tue May 19, 2015 at 5:36 PM PT: Philadelphia Mayor: With about 3 percent in, ex-Councilor Jim Kenney is outpacing state Sen. Anthony Hardy Williams 58-29. Too early to conclude anything, but Kenney appeared to run away with this in the final weeks.

Tue May 19, 2015 at 5:41 PM PT: KY-Gov: Heiner's running mate conceding to Bevin.

KC Crosbie  speaking first to thanks families, staff and volunteers and congratulations @MattBevin
@mycn2

Tue May 19, 2015 at 5:43 PM PT: KY-Gov: Well, things may still get interesting. 91 percent is in and Bevin leads Comer only 33-31. Heiner's clearly toast at 28.

Tue May 19, 2015 at 5:44 PM PT: Philadelphia Mayor: 9 percent is in and Kenney is sitting pretty with a 63-22 lead over Williams.

Tue May 19, 2015 at 5:46 PM PT: Jacksonville Mayor: And that is that.

Alvin Brown just conceded.
@learyreports

Tue May 19, 2015 at 5:50 PM PT: KY-Gov: 95 percent in and things are still interesting. Bevin leads Comer by a small 33.1-31.8 margin.

Tue May 19, 2015 at 5:52 PM PT: Philadelphia Mayor: 13 percent in and Kenney still leads 64-20.

Tue May 19, 2015 at 5:55 PM PT: The liveblog continues here.

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Daily Kos Elections Liveblog Banner
Tonight, voters go to to the polls in party primaries Kentucky and Philadelphia, and for a mayoral runoff in Jacksonville, Florida. Our guide to the key races can be found here. Polls start to close in the Eastern time zone portion of Kentucky at 6 PM ET, and we'll be bringing you tonight's results as they come in.

Results & Poll Closing Times (all times Eastern):

Kentucky (6 PM & 7 PM) | Jacksonville (7 PM) | Philadelphia (8 PM)

4:32 PM PT: KY-Gov: With 38 percent in, Bevin has a small 35-33 lead over Heiner, with Comer at 25. The good news for Bevin is that the race is closing because Heiner's base in Jefferson is coming in, but he doesn't appear to be making gains elsewhere. Jefferson is 61 percent in and it's probably a good sign that Bevin is hanging onto a narrow lead.

4:34 PM PT: Jacksonville Mayor: 79 percent of precincts are in, and Curry maintains his 51-49 lead.

4:35 PM PT: KY-Gov: We're at 43 percent reporting, and Bevin's narrow edge over Heiner has slightly widened to 35-32.

4:39 PM PT: KY-Gov: 48 percent in and Bevin leads Heiner 34-31. Comer is beginning to make up some ground in rural western Kentucky but at 27 he has a hole to climb out of.

4:44 PM PT: KY-Gov: We're at 50 percent in and Comer is beginning to catching up. Bevin leads Heiner 34-30, but Comer at 28.

4:50 PM PT: KY-Gov: One good sign for Bevin is that Jefferson jumped from 60 to 71 percent reporting in the last dump, but the statewide margin didn't move much.

4:52 PM PT: KY-Gov: 59 percent in and the race remains pretty static, with Bevin leading Heiner 34-31, with Comer at 27.

4:59 PM PT: KY-Gov: 64 percent in and Bevin's edge has widened slightly to 34-30-27. 30 percent of Heiner's Jefferson County is still out but he hasn't been attracting much support elsewhere and it's getting tough to see where he makes up the ground.

5:02 PM PT: Jacksonville Mayor: 94 percent of precincts are in and GOPer Lenny Curry maintains his 51.32-48.68 lead. This looks over.

5:05 PM PT: KY-Gov: Worth noting that 94 percent of Jefferson County is in and Heiner just hasn't made up the ground. Looking very bad for him.

5:10 PM PT: KY-Gov: We're at 73 percent reporting and Bevin leads Heiner 34-31, with Comer at 27. A year ago when Mitch McConnell was demolishing Bevin, who would have predicted this?

5:13 PM PT: KY-Gov:

Some preliminary maps for Republican primary #kygov, from state website 10 minutes ago. http://t.co/...
@donnermaps

5:14 PM PT: KY-Gov:

BREAKING: WLEX just called the race for Matt Bevin. #kygov #kyelect
@joesonka

5:15 PM PT: The liveblog continues here.

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Daily Kos Elections Liveblog Banner
Tonight, voters go to to the polls in party primaries Kentucky and Philadelphia, and for a mayoral runoff in Jacksonville, Florida. Our guide to the key races can be found here. Polls start to close in the Eastern time zone portion of Kentucky at 6 PM ET, and we'll be bringing you tonight's results as they come in.

Results & Poll Closing Times (all times Eastern):

Kentucky (6 PM & 7 PM) | Jacksonville (7 PM) | Philadelphia (8 PM)

3:08 PM PT: The first votes are beginning to come in for Kentucky.

3:34 PM PT: KY-Gov: Some real results out of Boone County in Northern Kentucky give Matt Bevin a 57-20 lead over Hal Heiner. He needs to run up the score in the region.

3:46 PM PT: KY-Gov:

Watching results now is a bit like watching paint dry, but it will get better.
@Joe_Gerth

3:52 PM PT: KY-Gov: With about 3 percent of precincts in, Bevin leads Hal Heiner 34-31, with Comer at 26. What's giving Heiner a sudden boost is his native Jefferson County, where he used to serve on the metro county council.

3:55 PM PT: KY-Gov: The commonwealth's second largest county is almost all in.

90% in Fayette ... Bevin 32, Comer 29, Heiner 29. #kygov Reminder: Moffett beat David WIlliams in Fayette in 2011 primary. #kygov
@ScottJenningsKY

4:02 PM PT: KY-Gov: Polls have closed in the remainder of Kentucky. With 5 percent reporting, Bevin leads Heiner 38-29, with Comer at 26. Per this interactive map from the Courier Journal, Bevin is doing well in Northern Kentucky while Heiner is romping in the Louisville area, and Comer is taking some rural areas. Too early to draw many conclusions.

4:05 PM PT: KY-Gov: The Courier-Journal is ahead in results. With 14 percent in, they give Bevin a slim 35-34 margin over Heiner, with Comer at 24. The Louisville area is giving Heiner a huge lift, and he's posting a few small leads in rural Eastern Kentucky. And to no one's surprise, the Democratic primary has been called for Jack Conway.

4:15 PM PT: KY-Gov: 21 percent in and Bevin up to 35-32 lead over Heiner, Comer at 26.

4:19 PM PT: Jacksonville Mayor: With 43 percent in (they count fast!) GOP challenger Lenny Curry has a small 51-49 lead over Democratic incumbent Alvin Brown.

4:28 PM PT: Jacksonville Mayor: Via Matthew Isabell, Brown running behind Democratic registration in early vote. Bad sign.

4:29 PM PT: The liveblog continues here.

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8:17 AM PT (Jeff Singer): IN-Gov: Less than a year ago, it looked quite possible that GOP Gov. Mike Pence would forgo his re-election campaign in order to run for president. But over the last few months, Pence sounded reluctant to risk his day job. In any case, the national firestorm over the Religious Freedom Restoration Act pretty much ended any chance Pence had at running a serious bid for the White House, and turned his once-safe re-election campaign into a much tougher slog. So it comes as no surprise that Pence's campaign says that he will announce on June 18 that he will seek a second term as governor.

8:37 AM PT (Jeff Singer): IL-08: Democratic state Sen. Tom Cullerton formed an exploratory committee shortly after Rep. Tammy Duckworth announced that she would run for Senate, and he made his campaign official this week. Cullerton comes from a powerful family (his cousin is the state Senate president) and is well-connected to labor. Cullerton will face businessman and 2012 candidate Raja Krishnamoorthi, and fellow state Sen. Mike Noland has also formed an exploratory committee. The Democratic nominee should be favored in this Obama 57-41 Chicagoland seat.

12:20 PM PT (Jeff Singer): NH-01: In what passes for good news for Rep. Frank Guinta these days, the New Hampshire Republican Party’s Executive Committee decided not to call for his resignation on Monday. Their statement wasn't exactly warm, saying that Guinta "[u]nless further information comes to light, the Executive Committee of the New Hampshire Republican State Committee, will take no further action."

Guinta has been in hot water since last week, when he paid a fine to the FEC over an illegal six-figure 2010 donation from his parents, and prominent Republicans like Sen. Kelly Ayotte have called for his departure. Guinta has maintained that the donation was legal but hasn't convincingly explained why, and he awkwardly refused to answer questions from Roll Call on Monday.  

Guinta looks very likely to face a credible primary challenger if he follows through with his plans to seek another term, but, at least for now, his base isn't calling for his head. According to GOP pollster Reach Communications, registered Republicans in NH-01 agree Guinta should not resign by a 61-39 margin. It's unclear if Reach (whom we've never heard from before) allowed respondents to say if they were undecided or not. There's a big difference between saying that Guinta shouldn't resign in disgrace and saying that he should be renominated, but this survey may encourage him to keep hanging on. Democrats are going to contest this swing seat regardless, but they'd rather face a damaged Guinta than a fresh opponent.

12:26 PM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-17: Former Obama Administration official Ro Khanna came close to unseating fellow Democrat Mike Honda last year, and he's set to make a "special announcement" on May 30. It's probably too much for Honda fans to hope that Khanna raised $801,000 only to decide not to run again.

1:11 PM PT (Jeff Singer): PA-AG: Two years ago, Democratic state Attorney General Kathleen Kane was a rising star in Pennsylvania politics who looked likely to serve in the Senate or governor's mansion before too long. Now, Kane is facing an indictment for allegedly leaking secretive information to embarrass political enemies. Over at Philadelphia Magazine, Robert Huber gives us a fascinating look at Kane's rise and fall.

2:01 PM PT: FL-Sen: Democratic Rep. Alan Grayson's divorce settlement with his estranged wife, which would reportedly have annulled their marriage, has fallen apart. We don't know why, though supposedly Grayson signed the agreement but his wife did not. Why is this even news, though? Because Grayson couldn't resist taking an ugly, public swipe at his wife—the mother of their five children—on his way into court:

"I'll sum it up for you. Gold diggers gotta dig. That's all I gotta say," Grayson said on Monday. "We had an agreement. She's trying to renege."
And Grayson's gotta grayse. Lately he's sent his acerbic rhetoric into turbo mode: He dubbed one local reporter a "shitting robot," berated two others, reportedly cursed at DSCC chair Jon Tester, and allegedly called Rep. Patrick Murphy, his would-be primary rival, a piece of shit. So Grayson's latest outburst is far from surprising, but it certainly doesn't help his hot-headed image, and this isn't exactly the kind of remark your average woman voter will like.

Meanwhile, we have a new name emerging on the GOP side. Marc Caputo reports that wealthy businessman Randy Fine might drop his bid for the state House and take on a much more ambitious Senate campaign. Supposedly, Fine is willing to self-fund "seven figures," though even at the higher end of the range, that's not terribly impressive for Florida (Gov. Rick Scott spent $70 million of his own money in 2010). Right now, the only declared Republican is Rep. Ron DeSantis, a Club for Growth acolyte, so you know that the establishment is looking for an alternative. Whether that's Fine or, say, Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, remains to be seen.

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Republican Rep. Frank Guinta
Republican Rep. Frank Guinta
Leading Off:

NH-01: Rep. Frank Guinta has certainly seen better days. Last Wednesday, the New Hampshire Republican paid a fine to the FEC over a mysterious (and illegal) $355,000 campaign loan from his parents, perhaps thinking that he could put this long-running story behind him. However, Guinta's move only led to more questions about his honesty, and his own party wants him out of this swing district.

Last week, Sen. Kelly Ayotte did little to defend the incumbent, but she ditched any subtlety on Monday and publicly told Guinta to get lost. State Senate President Chuck Morse and state House Speaker Shawn Jasper also called for his resignation, while state party chair Jennifer Horn called his situation "serious and extremely troubling." The hacks at the NRCC didn't exactly get Guinta's back either, saying only that they're "continuing to evaluate this very complex situation."

Guinta is at least acting like he doesn't care, saying on Monday that he won't resign, and that he'll fundraise to pay back the questionable loan (good luck finding donors). However, if Guinta won't go quietly, his party sounds ready to throw him into the shark tank. The Boston Globe reported on Friday that influential Republicans have already started discussing possible recruits, and they certainly have a lot of options. The Globe's James Pindell mentioned 14 different potential candidates, though it remains to be seen who's actually serious. One more notable name belongs to 2014 candidate Dan Innis, who lost the primary to Guinta and is reportedly interested in a second bid, but only if there's an open seat situation.

There's also been some speculation that ex-Massachusetts Sen. and 2014 New Hampshire Senate nominee Scott Brown could try again. However, given that a recent PPP survey gave Brown an atrocious 30-56 statewide favorable rating, it's unlikely the NRCC will be thrilled to have him as their standard-bearer. It doesn't help that Brown has already dispensed with last year's comic fiction that he's a New Hampshirite: He recently re-established his Masshole credentials by applying for a Massachusetts state pension.

For the moment, Guinta seems determined to stick it out and perhaps go down fighting, but it's very hard to see him getting to the general election ballot unless a clown car full of over-eager Republicans runs against him in the primary. Democrats are going to target this swing seat no matter what happens, but right now, as unlikely as it may be, they're rooting for Guinta to hang on for dear life.

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Republican Rep. Frank Guinta
Embattled New Hampshire GOP congressman Frank Guinta
Rep. Frank Guinta has certainly seen better days. Last Wednesday, the New Hampshire Republican paid a fine to the FEC over a mysterious (and illegal) $355,000 campaign loan from his parents, perhaps thinking that he could put this long-running story behind him. However, Guinta's move only led to more questions about his honesty, and his own party wants him out of this swing district.

Last week, Sen. Kelly Ayotte did little to defend the incumbent, but she ditched any subtlety on Monday and publicly told Guinta to get lost. State Senate President Chuck Morse and state House Speaker Shawn Jasper also called for his resignation, while state party chair Jennifer Horn called his situation "serious and extremely troubling." The hacks at the NRCC didn't exactly get Guinta's back either, saying only that they're "continuing to evaluate this very complex situation."

Guinta is at least acting like he doesn't care, saying on Monday that he won't resign, and that he'll fundraise to pay back the questionable loan (good luck finding donors). However, if Guinta won't go quietly, his party sounds ready to throw him into the shark tank. The Boston Globe reported on Friday that influential Republicans have already started discussing possible recruits, and they certainly have a lot of options. The Globe's James Pindell mentioned 14 different potential candidates, though it remains to be seen who's actually serious. One more notable name belongs to 2014 candidate Dan Innis, who lost the primary to Guinta and says he'd be interested in a second bid, but only if there's an open seat situation.

There's also been some speculation that ex-Massachusetts senator and 2014 New Hampshire Senate nominee Scott Brown could try again. However, given that a recent PPP survey gave Brown an atrocious 30-56 statewide favorable rating, it's unlikely the NRCC will be thrilled to have him as their standard-bearer. (It doesn't help that Brown has already dispensed with last year's comic fiction that he's a New Hampshirite: He recently re-established his Masshole credentials by applying for a Massachusetts state pension.)

For the moment, Guinta seems determined to stick it out and perhaps go down fighting, but it's very hard to see him getting to the general election ballot unless a clown car full of over-eager Republicans runs against him in the primary. Democrats are going to target this swing seat no matter what happens, but right now, as unlikely as it may be, they're rooting for Guinta to hang on for dear life.

Discuss
Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Garden Grove) announces she will run for the U.S. Senate seat of vacating California Senator Barbara Boxer during an event  in Santa Ana, California May 14, 2015. Sanchez said on Thursday she would take on California Attorney General Kamala Harris for the Democratic nomination to succeed retiring U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer, the Los Angeles Times reported.   REUTERS/Mike Blake . - RTX1D0AX
Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-CA)
Unreal. This is one of the grossest things we've seen from a Democratic candidate in a long while. Here's California Rep. Loretta Sanchez, demonstrating a "war whoop" to describe an East Indian supporter she once met with:
"So I'm going to his office, thinkin' that I'm going to go meet with a," she said, holding her hand in front of her mouth and making an echo sound. "Right? ... because he said Indian American."
Fellow Democrats pounded Sanchez, a newly minted Senate candidate who stumbled badly in her first week, until she coughed up an apology, but this is the kind of display that could (and probably should) prove disqualifying. What makes this more problematic is that Sanchez, whom the Sacramento Bee politely labeled as "unscripted," has an unfortunate history of racially clueless remarks: In her 2010 re-election campaign, she said that "Vietnamese and Republicans" were attempting "to take this seat from us … and give it to this Van Tran, who is very anti-immigrant and very anti-Hispanic." (Tran is Vietnamese, and Sanchez had to apologize then, too.)

One thing Sanchez may actually understand, though, is how precarious her situation is. She waited months to get into the race for retiring Sen. Barbara Boxer's open seat, a delay that allowed state Attorney General Kamala Harris to raise millions and consolidate support from the Democratic establishment. After her dismaying blunder, Sanchez was asked if she might instead seek re-election to the House. Her response was very telling:

"I am running for the United States Senate, and we're running full bore to talk to people up and down California, and we think that by the time we finish, and [the June 2016 primary] rolls around, we're going to be moving into the general election."
Sanchez's failure to actually answer the question put to her means she hasn't ruled out the possibility of a quick about-face. It would be a humiliating climb-down, but it wouldn't be any more humiliating than what Sanchez has already put herself through.
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U.S. Senate candidate Matt Bevin (R-KY) speaks to a gathering at FreePAC Kentucky in Louisville, Kentucky, April 5, 2014.  Picture taken April 5, 2014. The conservative Tea Party movement is supporting Bevin, but they face a tough campaigner in Republican incumbent Senator Mitch McConnell, who has been preparing to fend off a primary challenge since 2010.   REUTERS/John Sommers II     (UNITED STATES - Tags: POLITICS ELECTIONS) - RTR3PWZD
One year after a devastating primary loss to Mitch McConnell,
Matt Bevin may emerge as the GOP's gubernatorial nominee in Kentucky
Voters in Kentucky and Philadelphia go to the polls Tuesday to select candidates in their primaries, while Jacksonville, Florida, will host a general election for mayor. We'll be liveblogging the results at Daily Kos Elections starting at 6 PM ET when polls begin to close. Note that neither Kentucky nor Philadelphia have primary runoffs, so a simple plurality is all that's needed to win. Here's our preview of al the top races:

KY-Gov (R): This four-way contest has turned into one of the ugliest races we've seen in a long time, and it's anyone's guess who will emerge with the GOP nomination.

Things began to go off the rails when a blogger named Michael Adams accused state Agriculture Commissioner James Comer of abusing his then-girlfriend back in college. Adams presented no evidence for his startling assertion, though, and the fact that he had been informally coordinating with one of Comer's rivals, former Louisville Councilor Hal Heiner, called his veracity in question.

However, that former girlfriend, Marilyn Thomas, soon stepped forward and publicly accused Comer of physically and mentally abusing her over two decades ago, and added that he took her to get an abortion. Two of Thomas's former roommates have confirmed parts of her account, but Comer has continued to deny everything and has accused Heiner of paying Thomas to lie. Comer also claims that Adams threatened his running mate's children, a charge local prosecutors are investigating.

The Comer-Heiner slugfest, which has dominated coverage of the race, has given a third candidate, businessman Matt Bevin, an unexpected opening. When this contest started, Bevin was very much a longshot. As you may recall, Bevin ran against now-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in the 2014 GOP primary for Senate and badly lost, so his last-minute decision to run for governor this year did not look like a winning move.

However, Bevin has largely stayed above the fray as his two main opponents blast each other to smithereens. Two recent polls show a very tight three-way race, with former state Supreme Court Justice Will Scott in a distant fourth place. It's anyone's guess as to how things will shake out.

The eventual GOP nominee will face Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway, who faces only token primary opposition. While Kentucky is a conservative state, voters there have been much more willing to elect Democrats at the state level even though they've spurned them federally. There's also a good chance that the Republican primary leaves some scars that can't be healed by November.

Note that Kentucky is split between two time zones: Polls close in the Eastern time zone at 6 PM ET and in the Central time zone at 7 PM ET. Results often start coming in after the eastern half of the state closes.

Head over the fold for a look at what else to watch on Tuesday.

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KY-Gov: Tuesday's GOP primary has been dominated by accusations that James Comer abused his girlfriend Marilyn Thomas in college. Along with Thomas, two of her former roommates have publicly stated that Comer abused her either physically or mentally. On Friday, GOP state Sen. Alice Forgy Kerr, who supports primary rival Hal Heiner, told the Courier-Journal that she has three lifelong friends who have known about Comer's actions for the last two decades, and Forgy Kerr says she "knows" that the allegations are true.

One of them, Tim Janes, said that he was best friends with Jim Coursey when he was dating Thomas in the mid-1990s, before Comer's political career started. Janes says that Thomas "confided to me in 1995 that Jamie Comer had abused her, how he controlled and how domineering he was to her." Coursey's sister also says that she knew for years that Thomas had been in an abusive relationship in college, though she wasn't aware of Comer's involvement. So far, Thomas' story doesn't appear to have knocked Comer out of contention, but he can't be happy that this is getting more oxygen right before the primary. (Jeff Singer)

NH-01: GOP Rep. Frank Guinta has been in hot water since he paid a huge fine to the FEC last week over a mysterious six-figure donation from 2010. Prominent Republicans aren't doing much to support him, and the Boston Globe's James Pindell reports that they're actively looking for another candidate. Guinta reiterated on Friday that he's running again in 2016, but it's likely that he's going to get a lot of pressure from the NRCC to resign or retire so they can have a candidate without his baggage. (Jeff Singer)

8:53 AM PT (Jeff Singer): LA-Gov: Sen. David Vitter continues to scoop up big GOP endorsements, with House Majority Whip Steve Scalise joining the pile. Unlike his House colleagues John Fleming and Charles Boustany, the powerful Scalise probably isn't looking for a Senate appointment (though he likely wouldn't say no if it were offered). Freshman Rep. Ralph Abraham endorsed Vitter last month, leaving Garrett Graves as the only GOP member of the delegation who isn't backing the senator yet.

10:06 AM PT (David Jarman): Demographics: The discussion of demographics and politics has taken a rather morbid turn lately, with a number of stories talking about the role of death (or, more broadly, generational replacement). Daniel McGraw, writing for Politico magazine, has a provocative addition to that trend, with a piece titled "The GOP is dying off. Literally." His article is based on some interesting math, combining exit polls with mortality data from the Census Bureau. He uses that to conclude that of the 61 million people who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012, 2.75 million of them will be missing from the electorate in 2016 (inasmuch as they'll be dead). Of course, that's a two-way street, but only 2.3 million of the 66 million people who voted for Barack Obama instead (who are disproportionately younger) will die in that same period, a disparity of 453,000.

There are some nuances here that McGraw's article doesn't go into, though. For one thing, you may remember the discussion only a few weeks ago of how premature death rates among African-Americans have their own negative impact on Democratic political fortunes. Also, there's simply the matter that this is an ongoing, perpetual problem; the same trend of Republican-leaning voters dying at a greater rate applied in 2008 ... and yet, Mitt Romney got more votes than did John McCain. The slow erosion doesn't happen at a rate fast enough to outweigh other, bigger shifts in the electorate.

10:24 AM PT (David Jarman): Votes: The House voted on the "Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act" last Wednesday; the bill passed with 238 Republican and 4 Democratic yes votes, to 180 Democratic and 4 Republican no votes. The four Dems who voted yes were three of the 'usual suspects,' Henry Cuellar, Dan Lipinski, and Collin Peterson, along with Rhode Island's Jim Langevin. The four Republicans were also three of the ones likeliest to break ranks (Bob Dold, Charlie Dent, and Richard Hanna) along with Rodney Frelinghuysen.

As a reminder of how far the Democrats have come, in terms of being nearly united on this issue, think back to our post from earlier this year on what happened to the 64 Dems who voted yes on the Stupak Amendment in 2009. Of that 64, only 12 remain (between losses and retirements -- though, of course, if the Dems still had a majority in the House, it'd probably include significantly more Blue Dogs in rural districts, meaning that we wouldn't likely have that same level of unity). And of those 12, only three voted 'yes' on a similar bill in 2015 to exclude abortion coverage from ACA plans. Who were those three? Once again, it was Cuellar, Lipinski, and Peterson.

10:32 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Jacksonville Mayor: Voters head to the polls Tuesday, and a new poll indicates we're in for a barnburner. VancoreJones Communications takes a look at the contest on behalf of a conservative business group, and gives Republican Lenny Curry a 44-43 edge over Democratic incumbent Alvin Brown. The only other recent poll we've seen comes from St. Pete Polls, and they showed Curry up 49-45. (Hat-Tip Marc Caputo).

Jacksonville is a conservative city, and Brown always knew he was in for a tough race. However, as Tyler Yeargain reminds us in a great preview to this contest, Brown may have alienated too many Democrats. While Brown's reluctance to back Obama in 2012 and refusal to side with Charlie Crist in last year's gubernatorial contest could have earned him some cross-over support, there's a real chance it will depress base turnout when all is said and done. We'll find out Tuesday if Brown can pull off a second win in this red area.

10:56 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Nashville Mayor: We have a while to go before the Aug. 6 non-partisan primary, but two candidates just released internal polls. First up is a May Greenberg Quinlan Rosner survey from wealthy developer Bill Freeman, which we've summarize below:

• Real estate executive Bill Freeman: 20

• Davidson County Criminal Court Clerk Howard Gentry: 16

• Councilor Megan Barry: 16

• Businesswoman Linda Eskind Rebrovick: 9

• Attorney Charles Robert Bone: 5

• Former Metro Nashville School Board Chairman David Fox: 4

• Charter school founder Jeremy Kane: 4

A previously unreleased Freeman poll from early April showed Gentry beating Barry 27-13, with Freeman at 11. Freeman has been airing ads, though it's unclear how much he's spending.

Gentry has also released his own poll, also conducted in May. The results of the Mellman Group survey are below:

• Gentry: 21

• Freeman: 19

• Barry: 10

• Rebrovick: 8

• Bone: 6

• Fox: 4

• Kane: 2

Most of the candidates haven't spent very much yet, so expect things to change before August. As the only African American candidate in the contest, Gentry has a good chance to advance to the runoff, but a lot is up in the air here.

11:02 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Special Elections: Via Johnny Longtorso:

New Hampshire House, Rockingham-32: This is an open Republican seat encompassing the towns of Candia, Deerfield, Northwood, and Nottingham. The Democratic candidate is Maureen Mann, who won this seat in 2012 by 21 votes but lost it 55-45 in 2014. She also held this seat from 2007 to 2010 when it elected five representatives; it's a single-member floterial seat now.

The Republican nominee is Yvonne Dean-Bailey, a 19-year-old college freshman at a school in Massachusetts (Scott Brown has apparently started a trend here). Mitt Romney carried this seat 54-45 in 2012, while Scott Brown and Walt Haverstein both won it 54-46 in 2014.

Pennsylvania SD-05: This is the seat vacated by Lt. Gov. Mike Stack, located in northeast Philadelphia. The candidates are Democratic state Rep. John Sabatina Jr. and Republican Tim Dailey, a high school teacher. This district went 63-36 for President Obama in 2012.

11:20 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Primaries: Tuesday brings us one of the year's biggest election nights, with Kentucky's unpredictable and nasty GOP gubernatorial primary headlining. We also have a Democratic mayoral primary in Philadelphia and a general election in Jacksonville, Florida to watch. Check out our primary preview for a rundown of each contest, as well as poll closing times: We'll be liveblogging the proceedings Tuesday starting at 6 ET.

11:20 AM PT (Jeff Singer): CA State Senate: Tuesday's runoff in California's 7th Senate District in the East Bay features two Democrats facing off against one another, but don't be fooled into thinking this isn't a high-stakes race. Assemblywoman Susan Bonilla has the support of labor and environmental groups, who have spent big for her. On the other side is Orinda Mayor Steve Glazer, a longtime advisor to Gov. Jerry Brown. Despite that connection, Glazer has a terrible relationship with labor, and plenty of Democrats are furious at him for endorsing Republican Catharine Baker's successful Assembly bid last year.

Altogether, a monstrous $7 million has been dropped here. While Obama won this seat 61-37, the district's Republican minority could decide this contest, and they're likely to overwhelmingly back Glazer.

11:26 AM PT (Jeff Singer): NC-Gov: Sometimes, a candidate has been all-but-running for so long that you just can't muster up any excitement when they actually get in. So it is with Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper, who finally confirmed on Saturday that he's going to challenge Republican Gov. Pat McCrory next year. Cooper is unlikely to face any real primary opposition, and polls forecast a tight general election.

11:37 AM PT (Jeff Singer): LA-03: Rep. Charles Boustany is one of a few Republicans hoping that David Vitter will appoint them to the Senate should he win this year's gubernatorial contest. If Boustany departs, it's a good bet that we'll see a crowded GOP contest in his Romney 66-32 southwest Louisiana seat, and one local politician is already taking a look here. The Advocate's Will Sentell reports that state Rep. Brett Geymann is publicly expressing interest in succeeding Boustany. Louisiana holds its legislative elections this year, so Geymann wouldn't need to sacrifice his seat to run.

12:40 PM PT (Jeff Singer): MD-Sen: It's been a long time since we heard anything from Democratic Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger, but he's still keeping his name in contention. Ruppersberger tells Capital News Service that he's likely to decide by the summer, adding that his "popular polling is very high in the Baltimore area. If I’m the only one from Baltimore, I’ll consider it." Of course, that's a big if. While both announced candidates, Reps. Donna Edwards and Chris Van Hollen, hail from the D.C. area, Baltimore-based congressman Elijah Cummings is mulling a bid and fellow congressman John Sarbanes has yet to rule anything out either.

12:52 PM PT (Jeff Singer): VA-10: Despite Barbara Comstock's easy win last year, Democrats are hoping to target the freshman Northern Virginia Republican in this Romney 50-49 seat before she can become entrenched. Roll Call recently noted that state Sen. Jennifer Wexton, Del. Kathleen Murphy, and non-profit director Cathleen Magennis Wyatt are being recruited, though Wexton and Murphy are unlikely to decide on anything until this year's legislative elections are over on November. The Washington Post's Rachel Weiner also tells us that local Democrats see Shenandoah University professor Karen Schultz as a potentially strong candidate. Schultz considered running here in 2014 but she deferred to eventual nominee John Foust. Schultz acquitted herself well in 2007, with her only narrowly losing a state Senate bid.

1:14 PM PT: CA-Sen, 46: Unreal. This is one of the grossest things we've seen from a Democratic candidate in a long while. Here's Rep. Loretta Sanchez, demonstrating a "war whoop" to describe an East Indian supporter she once met with:

"So I'm going to his office, thinkin' that I'm going to go meet with a," she said, holding her hand in front of her mouth and making an echo sound. "Right? ... because he said Indian American."
Fellow Democrats pounded Sanchez, a newly minted Senate candidate who stumbled badly in her first week, until she coughed up an apology, but this is the kind of display that could (and probably should) prove disqualifying. What makes this more problematic is that Sanchez, whom the Sacramento Bee politely labeled as "unscripted," has an unfortunate history of racially clueless remarks: In her 2010 re-election campaign, she said that "Vietnamese and Republicans" were attempting "to take this seat from us … and give it to this Van Tran, who is very anti-immigrant and very anti-Hispanic." (Tran is Vietnamese, and Sanchez had to apologize then, too.)

One thing Sanchez may actually understand, though, is how precarious her situation is. She waited months to get into the race for retiring Sen. Barbara Boxer's open seat, a delay that allowed state Attorney General Kamala Harris to raise millions and consolidate support from the Democratic establishment. After her dismaying blunder, Sanchez was asked if she might instead seek re-election to the House. Her response was very telling:

"I am running for the United States Senate, and we're running full bore to talk to people up and down California, and we think that by the time we finish, and [the June 2016 primary] rolls around, we're going to be moving into the general election."
Sanchez's failure to actually answer the question put to her means she hasn't ruled out the possibility of a quick about-face. It would be a humiliating climb-down, but it wouldn't be any more humiliating than what Sanchez has already put herself through.

1:56 PM PT (Jeff Singer): NH-01: Rep. Frank Guinta has certainly seen better days. Last Wednesday, the New Hampshire Republican paid a fine to the FEC over a mysterious (and illegal) $355,000 campaign loan from his parents, perhaps thinking that he could put this long-running story behind him. However, Guinta's move only led to more questions about his honesty, and his own party wants him out of this swing district.

Last week, Sen. Kelly Ayotte did little to defend the incumbent, but she ditched any subtlety on Monday and publicly toldGuinta to get lost. State Senate President Chuck Morse and state House Speaker Shawn Jasper also called for his resignation, while state party chair Jennifer Horn called his situation "serious and extremely troubling." The hacks at the NRCC didn't exactly get Guinta's back either, saying only that they're "continuing to evaluate this very complex situation."

Guinta is at least acting like he doesn't care, saying on Monday that he won't resign, and that he'll fundraise to pay back the questionable loan (good luck finding donors). However, if Guinta won't go quietly, his party sounds ready to throw him into the shark tank. The Boston Globe reported on Friday that influential Republicans have already started discussing possible recruits, and they certainly have a lot of options. The Globe's James Pindell mentioned 14 different potential candidates, though it remains to be seen who's actually serious. One more notable name belongs to 2014 candidate Dan Innis, who lost the primary to Guinta and says he'd be interested in a second bid, but only if there's an open seat situation.

There's also been some speculation that ex-Massachusetts Sen. and 2014 New Hampshire Senate nominee Scott Brown could try again. However, given that a recent PPP survey gave Brown an atrocious 30-56 statewide favorable rating, it's unlikely the NRCC will be thrilled to have him as their standard-bearer. (It doesn't help that Brown has already dispensed with last year's comic fiction that he's a New Hampshirite: He recently reestablished his Masshole credentials by applying for a Massachusetts state pension.)

For the moment, Guinta seems determined to stick it out and perhaps go down fighting, but it's very hard to see him getting to the general election ballot unless a clown car full of over-eager Republicans runs against him in the primary. Democrats are going to target this swing seat no matter what happens, but right now, as unlikely as it may be, they're rooting for Guinta to hang on for dear life.

2:00 PM PT (Jeff Singer): NV-04: Three Democrats are already challenging freshman Republican Cresent Hardy in this Obama 54-44 seat, and we might be about to have our fourth contender. Via Jon Ralston, former state Assembly Speaker John Oceguera says that he's "north of 90 percent" for getting in. Hardy's going to have a tough time next year no matter who he faces, but Oceguera may give him his best shot at victory. Back in 2012, Oceguera ran a disastrous campaign overt in the neighboring 3rd District, spending months refusing to say if he'd have voted for Obamacare. If he runs this time, maybe we'll finally find out?

2:04 PM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-Sen: A strong Sanchez campaign launch may have persuaded Xavier Becerra, another Latino House member from Southern California, from running. But Becerra is definitely still looking at the contest, and he says he expects to make up his mind by August.

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Republican congressional candidate for New Hampshire's first district Frank Guinta gestures before speaking at the New Hampshire Republican Party State Convention in Concord, New Hampshire September 25, 2010. Guinta is challenging Democrat incumbent Rep. Carol Shea-Porter. In New Hampshire, the Republican Party's renewed focus on fiscal matters could prove fruitful after a devastating decade that saw them lose a Senate seat, both House seats and control of the state legislature. Republicans aim to win back that lost ground this year and win the governorship as well. Picture taken September 25, 2010.   REUTERS/Joel Page  (UNITED STATES - Tags: POLITICS ELECTIONS) - RTXSTA4
New Hampshire Republican Rep. Frank Guinta in better days
Leading Off:

NH-01: Republican Rep. Frank Guinta, who represents New Hampshire's swingy 1st District, has spent the last few years ignoring questions about a mysterious six-figure donation he made to his campaign in 2010. Guinta's financial statements say that he didn't have that type of money to spend, but he continued to claim that it was a bookkeeping error that caused the problems. Guinta paid a large fine to the FEC on Wednesday but if he was hoping he'd be able to put this story to bed, he was very wrong.

Guinta quickly canceled a town hall, something that Granite State reporter John DiStaso flagged as a bad sign for him. But things really went downhill on Friday, when the powerful conservative paper the Union Leader printed an editorial from its publisher Joseph W. McQuaid simply saying, "Frank Guinta is a damned liar."

GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte isn't being as aggressive, but she's in no hurry to defend Guinta. When asked if the congressman should resign, Ayotte said "[t]hat's a decision that's his, but time will tell." Ayotte has a potentially tough re-election campaign next year, and it's no surprise that she hopes that Guinta will just go away rather than cause her trouble. Other prominent Republicans aren't being any more supportive, and the Boston Globe's James Pindell reports that they're actively looking for another candidate.

Guinta continues to maintain that the donation was legitimate, arguing that it came from his parents' checking accounts. According to Guinta, he deposited $381,000 in their account, they paid him back, and he used that money on his campaign. However, attorneys interviewed by the Union Leader say this explanation just isn't valid. His parents would still own the money, and it doesn't matter if he deposited it himself. While Guinta can spend as much of his own funds as he wants on his campaign, his parents can't legally drop anywhere near $381,000 into his warchest. Guinta says he'll produce documents showing this was his money, though one lawyer points out that if he could have just proven that to the FEC, this whole mess would have been avoided.

Obama won this seat 50-49, and Democrats were going to target Guinta no matter what. Businessman Shawn O'Connor is already running, and former Rep. Carol Shea-Porter is considering a fourth match with Guinta; Executive Councilor Chris Pappas also hasn't ruled anything out. But Guinta may have to worry about a primary challenger first, and the fact that powerful conservatives aren't defending him doesn't speak well of his chances. Guinta reiterated on Friday that he's running again in 2016, but it's likely that he's going to get a lot of pressure from the NRCC to resign or retire so they can have a candidate without his baggage. Things are moving fast here, and we'll be keeping a close eye on all the developments.

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Mt. St. Helens erupting in Washington state in May, 1980
Mt. St. Helens eruption in 1980
Thirty-five years ago, on May 18, 1980, Mount St. Helens erupted catastrophically. The mountain, located in Washington's Cascade Range just 50 miles northeast of Portland, Oregon, essentially tore itself apart in what was by far the largest volcanic event in the lower 48 states since European settlement. Fifty-seven people died, and the area around the mountain was scoured, with hundreds of square miles of trees flattened in national forest land and hundreds of miles of roads wiped out. Ash fell across eastern Washington, accumulating almost half a foot deep in Yakima, blotting out the sky and turning day into night, flattening crops and clogging streams. The eastern part of the state was economically paralyzed for many days afterward as residents dug out; imagine digging out from a snowstorm on a warm spring day, except the snow never melts, clogs engines, scars lungs, and hardens when it gets wet.

The eruption wasn't a complete surprise. Even before any activity began, geologists knew the young (geologically speaking) mountain was the likeliest in the Cascades to erupt again. In late March, the mountain started to have swarms of earthquakes. A week later, a small crater opened on top which started venting steam. As April progressed, the north side of the mountain started to bulge, at first detectable only by instruments, eventually becoming perceptible to the naked eye. Scientists knew something serious was afoot, the question was just how big it would be.

There's more over the fold ...

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B.B. King -- "The Thrill is Gone"
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