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icemilkcoffee https://www.dailykos.com/user/icemilkcoffee/rss/index.xml News Community Action Copyright 2005 - Steal what you want Sun, 26 Jan 2020 19:25:44 +0000 Sun, 26 Jan 2020 19:25:44 +0000 Daily Kos rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos) Daily Kos rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos) Every American should watch this short video https://www.dailykos.com/story/2019/3/4/1839528/-Every-American-should-watch-this-short-video This is a must watch: Jack Ma summarizes the the American predicament and US-China trade in under 3 minutes (3:54 to 7:15). Succinct and pointed : <div class="dk-editor-embed embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9 center-block"> <div class="remove-embed-content">x</div> <div class="dk-editor-embed embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9 center-block"> <div class="remove-embed-content"><a class="new_iframe_placeholder" href="#">x</a></div> <a class="iframe_placeholder youtube dk-embed" href="//youtube.com/watch?v=3c66ez9dFYU" title="" data-frameborder="0" data-height="281" data-src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/3c66ez9dFYU?start=234" data-width="500">YouTube Video</a></div> </div> rss@dailykos.com (icemilkcoffee) Trade wallst War _1839528 Tue, 05 Mar 2019 07:18:06 +0000 The limits of Identity Politics https://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/11/9/1593970/-The-limits-of-Identity-Politics This post-mortem does not involve any kind of ‘I Told You So’. But I am going to be very critical- so be forewarned. We Dems have bought into this ‘demographics is destiny’ mindset, and built an entire campaign around pandering to every non-white (or sometimes non white male) minority group out there, in the most transparent and obvious way. Of course nobody should be surprised when whites reacted and sent us a huge ‘F. U.’ Clinton’s entire campaign was built around assembling a minority firewall. This was done through rigorous data-mining; recruiting of prominent black, latino, women, muslims, asians, disabled, etc spokespeople; targetting the exact voting segments with audience tested advertising; promises of specific goodies to each constituent. All very scientific. And totally artificial and forced. It’s painting by the numbers. Even as a minority who is pandered to, I don’t feel particularly good about this approach to politics. Hillary Clinton is already a politician who is sorely lacking in authenticity and charisma. She looks even less sincere when she makes a big show of hugging this parade of minority faces. It is unconvincing to minorities, and downright off-putting to whites who have been left out of the hug fest. The national headlines these past 3 years have been dominated by campus protests, Black Lives Matter, and the shooting of police officers. The campus protests mostly involved over-reaction to either clumsy wording by well meaning people (Claremont McKenna), or just plain outright hoaxes (KKK tweets at Missou), and demands which flew in the face of free speech (Prof Melissa Click, ‘safe space’, etc). The campus movements drew guffaws, but the real damage came with the BLM movement which followed. It was a tactical, and factual error, to have called it Black Lives Matter instead of All Lives Matter. Because white people suffered more police shootings than blacks, and Native Americans caught it the worst percent wise. It should have been a universal campaign against police violence, and those of us on the left should have spearheaded that effort. Instead it turned into another one of our ID politics grievance project yet again, to the detriment of both the cause, and our credibility. Furthermore- as it turns out- many of these cases were frankly of dubious merit. Mike Brown really was a robber who charged the policeman. Sandra Bland had a troubled personal, psychiatric and traffic violations history, and she commited suicide in jail. By leaping to conclusions we squandered our political capital and antagonized white people unnecessarily. And the protests which turned into riots certainly did not help anyone, except convince rural whites that America was going to heck in a hand basket, and that democrats were too busy coddling their favored minorities instead of protecting the rule of law. The Clinton campaign was equally clumsy on the immigration question. In the past two years, people see on their TV screens 100’s of thousands of refugees clamoring ashore in Europe. They feel besieged, no different than the Brexit voters. Some feared terrorists slipping in. After Paris and Nice- you can’t say their fears were unfounded. The administration should have talked about the issue honestly- the USA, as the leader of NATO, has to make a token effort (and 10,000 is barely a token effort), when countries like Germany and Sweden are taking in 10X as many Syrians. Otherwise we have no credibility as the de facto leader of the anti-ISIS coalition. Frame the issue as a geopolitical necessity. Do not frame it as ‘We all love our peaceful, patriotic muslims and diversity makes us all better’, etc, etc. That does nothing to assauge white rural americans’ fears, or convince them that it is in their best interest to open their community to refugees. The related immigration issues of H1B , L1 and J1 abuses- Clinton never brought these issues up even once. She was the head of the State Dept. How could she not know about these problems? When she keeps mum about these issues for fear of upsetting her ethnic firewall, people naturally see her as selling out our jobs for immigrant votes. Similarly on the amnesty question. Instead of defending it as a matter of ethnic pride, Clinton should have defended it on purely economic grounds. The best way to stop illegal immigrants from undercutting legal workers, is to make them all legal and subject to the same wage laws. The best way to stop the freeloading of services, is to turn formerly illegal immigrants into legal taxpayers. Best way to stop outflow of remittance, is to have legalized workers bring their families here. That’s how you sell an idea to an audience- you have to tell them it’s in their own best interest. Instead Clinton never even tried to sell this idea to white people. She thought she did not have to. In her mind she thought she only needed to hand this candy to the hispanic voters, and hand that candy to the black voters, etc. It never occurred to her that she had to sell the idea to white voters. Finally, she pushed that idea of breaking the glass ceiling too overtly. As Scott Adams (it kills me to admit he was right) said- this was overselling. The fact that she was standing there running for president, says everything that needed to be said about that subject. People can see you are a woman. There is no need to trot out all these surrogates gushing about how historic it is and how proud their daughters are, etc. That can only prompt a backlash from men, and from jealoused women. As Scott Adams said- don’t ‘sell past the close’. Selling requires a light touch. The Clinton campaign seems incapable of a light touch. rss@dailykos.com (icemilkcoffee) Fail Post-mortem _1593970 Wed, 09 Nov 2016 09:00:47 +0000 Trump not much good with the ladies neither https://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/10/11/1580873/-Trump-not-much-good-with-the-ladies-neither Donald Trump fashions himself as the ultimate player/ Lady’s man. But when you listen to his <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/08/politics/trump-on-howard-stern/" target="_blank" title="">candid chats with Howard Stern</a>, Trump comes off as a creep, not a stud. The type of man who nurses high school rejections into a lifelong hatred of womankind. In one clip, they were talking about how some other (unnamed, as per Trump habit) rich men could not get dates and Donald could. Howard Stern was buttering up Trump while trying to pry bedroom details out of him: <blockquote> Stern: A lot of women go with you because of the money, but they stay with you because you’re delivering something special, right? Trump: Well, I do think the money makes a difference Stern: When you get them in the sack, they are satisfied, right? </blockquote> The fawning Stern pitched the softest of softballs to Trump. At this point, you would think even a third rate lothario could muster up a few cliches — “It’s all in the mood- get the mood right and you’re half way there” , or “my secret ingredient is massage”. Any Romeo worth his tic tacs would have something to say on his favorite subject, right? So how does our smooth operator Trump respond to this question? <blockquote> Trump: I couldn’t care less. I couldn’t care less </blockquote> Stunning! Our Alpha man Pickup Master Trump doesn’t have one single thing to say on the subject at all. It turns out he has fewer things to say about pleasing a woman than he does about <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/18/politics/trump-has-never-sought-forgiveness/" target="_blank" title="">being a christian</a> — which he obviously knew zip and zilch about. The only thing he had to say was the rather pathetic admission that being rich helps him get laid. Not only did his vocabulary and emotional development stop at age 14, it appears his sexual maturation stopped at that age as well. His idea of sex is simply getting himself off. He could not care less about his sex partners. He just admitted on national radio that he is the worst lover around, and he is too dense to even realize it. On a rather disturbing side note, Howard Stern asked Trump about his first sexual experience. Trump claimed he lost his virginity at age 14: <blockquote> It was a young woman, who was really beautiful, she the hot little girl in high school or grammar school or whatever. She was hot. </blockquote> Hot little girl… in grammar school? Ummmm, Donald- that’s not something you can ‘whatever’ over. It makes you wonder just how consensual this encounter was. The ick/creep factor is off the charts here. rss@dailykos.com (icemilkcoffee) Sex trump _1580873 Wed, 12 Oct 2016 05:30:31 +0000 Trump's eminently sensible tax proposal https://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/9/16/1570727/-Trump-s-eminently-sensible-tax-proposal Trump bravely bucked conservative ideology and put out an eminently sensible tax policy proposal. Not the one he<a href="https://www.donaldjtrump.com/positions/economic-vision" target="_blank"> just fleshed out yesterday</a> of course. That rehash of Hooverism is projected to cost the economy $1 trillion and lop 5% off the GDP growth by <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-economy-idUSKCN11J25M" target="_blank">Oxford Economics</a>. I am talking about Trump’s testimony in front of Congress, back in Nov. 1991. Back in that cruelest November of 1991, Congress, despondent over the economic recession, invited Donald Trump in to brainstorm. Trump himself had just seen his 8th-Wonder-of-the-World Taj Mahal go down in flames in bankruptcy court <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1991/08/29/business/company-news-court-backs-trump-s-plan-to-shed-half-of-taj-mahal.html" target="_blank" title="">less than 3 months prior</a>. And his other 3 casinos were waiting in the wing to go through the same the following year. It was in this milieu that a somber Trump had a moment of lucidity. After throwing out some self serving proposals about depreciation schedules and investment syndicates, <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4544001/donald-trump-1991-house-hearing-us-economic-recovery-depression-vs-recession" target="_blank" title="">Trump laid down some truth</a> that cuts the right wing’s supply-side tax-cut ideology off at the knees: <blockquote> And the other thing is, frankly, by having cut the high income tax rates to 25 percent, as an example, people don't have the incentive any more to invest. They're saying, "Why should I take a chance on investing in low or moderate-income housing? I might as well just pay the tax." But the fact is, that 25 percent for high-income people -- for high-income people -- it should be raised substantially with the understanding that if you invest, you can get it down and down substantially below that number. The incentive was taken away when the tax rates came down for high-income people. And I say leave the middle, leave the low lower. But people with money have to have the incentive. The dentist, the doctors -- they have to have the incentive to invest. And there's no incentive. </blockquote> There you have it- a high income tax rate discourages profit taking, and encourages investing (or hiring). The distillation of everything we on the left have been saying all along. And Trump himself knew it in his rare moment of sanity and honesty. rss@dailykos.com (icemilkcoffee) SupplySide Tax trump _1570727 Fri, 16 Sep 2016 14:42:00 +0000 Fear of China & Misplaced Anger at the TPP https://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/7/18/1549267/-Fear-of-China-amp-Misplaced-Anger-at-the-TPP 1. The China Phenomenon In defense, generals are said to be forever fighting the last war. Voters are no less prone to re-litigating yesterday’s battles. From 2000 and on, the rise of China stunned the world, just as the rise of Japan back in the 70’s and 80’s did a generation earlier. Shell shocked americans reacted by lashing out at all trade treaties, and nominating Trump to the GOP ticket. Too bad this is misplaced anger, and a decade too late to boot. Just like the earlier rise of Japan- by the time americans <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/what-japan-will-buy-next-201756" target="_blank">started freaking out about it</a>- the phenomenon had already peaked. <div class="align-center"> <figure class="image-captioned"><img alt="China_current_account_to_gdp.JPG" src="http://images.dailykos.com/images/275065/large/China_current_account_to_gdp.JPG?1468824368" title="China_current_account_to_gdp.JPG"> <figcaption>China current account as a percentage of GDP</figcaption> </figure> </div> China looked unstoppable back in 2001 to 2007. A lot of people assumed that China was unstoppable. Yet if you look at their current account- the China manufacturing juggernaut has indeed come back down to earth in the past 5 years. China <a href="https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/toppartners.html#def" target="_blank">accounts for close to half</a> of the US’ total trade deficits- almost 5X that of Japan which is in a distant 2nd place (incidentally <a href="https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements" target="_blank">neither country has a free trade agreement </a>with the US). The USA’s current account tells the same story but in reverse: <div class="align-center"> <figure class="image-captioned"><img alt="US_current_account_to_gdp.JPG" src="http://images.dailykos.com/images/275068/large/US_current_account_to_gdp.JPG?1468824939" title="US_current_account_to_gdp.JPG"> <figcaption>US current account as a percentage of GDP</figcaption> </figure> </div> It looked hopeless back in 2006. And yet in the post recession years, our trade deficits have halved; and returned roughly to the late 80’s average. The explanation is simple. China has priced itself out of the low wage manufacturing market: <div class="align-center"> <figure class="image-captioned"><img alt="china_manuf_wages.JPG" src="http://images.dailykos.com/images/275071/large/china_manuf_wages.JPG?1468825738" title="china_manuf_wages.JPG"> <figcaption></figcaption> </figure> </div> 3X Wage increase in China between 2006 to 2015 means China is no longer the low wage sweat shop of the world. So people who thought that China was an unstoppable steam train that would destroy every last american job- relax, that steam train has run out of steam. The chinese government fully recognizes this fact. Xi Jinping has made it a priority to transform China from an export economy, into a consumption economy. China doesn’t want to replace us- China wants to be just like us. The only thing more jaw dropping than their wage growth was their consumption growth: <div class="align-center"> <figure class="image-captioned"><img alt="china_consumer_spending.JPG" src="http://images.dailykos.com/images/275072/large/china_consumer_spending.JPG?1468825853" title="china_consumer_spending.JPG"> <figcaption></figcaption> </figure> </div> 4X growth between 2006 to 2015. 2. American Manufacturing Of course- you might counter that the US continues to bleed manufacturing jobs year after year. This is true. It is part of a long term secular trend: <div class="align-center"> <figure class="image-captioned"><img alt="usmanufacturingemployment1.jpg" src="http://images.dailykos.com/images/275073/large/usmanufacturingemployment1.jpg?1468826088" title="usmanufacturingemployment1.jpg"> <figcaption></figcaption> </figure> </div> A lot fewer people are employed in manufacturing. Just as a lot fewer Americans are employed in agriculture than a century ago. The other inexorable long term trend is the rise of the service sector: <div class="align-center"> <figure class="image-captioned"><img alt="distoflaborforcebysector.png" src="http://images.dailykos.com/images/275074/large/distoflaborforcebysector.png?1468826228" title="distoflaborforcebysector.png"> <figcaption>Labor Force by Sector (NBER data)</figcaption> </figure> </div> Note that in this accounting, manufacturing actually peaked back in the 1950’s- which is right around the time that Detroit’s population peaked. 3. Trade deficits revisited There is a school of thought which holds that all trade deficits are bad because they subtract from the GDP growth. In Econ 101 terms, that is literally true: GDP = C + I + G + B C= consumption, I=investment, G= government spending, B = balance of trade Looking at this equation, it seems like any trade deficits would subtract from the national GDP. However, what is not obvious is that it could be balanced out by increased consumption. For example- when you buy a pair of Levi’s jeans, the chinese manufacturer might make $5. American corporate brand Levi’s might make $10, and the american retailer the remaining $10. You are subtracting $5 from the GDP due to the trade imbalance, but you are adding $20 due to consumption. Now you might argue- if these jeans were not outsourced, the entire $25 would be added to the consumption column. But guess what- if the jeans weren’t outsourced- they would cost $45. Would you still buy it at $45? Probably not. So instead of $15 added to the GDP, the alternative would be $0. If I handed you $5, and asked you to pass along $3 to Fred next door and keep $2 for yourself. Would you turn down my $5? Not if you were rational. This is why trade could be beneficial to both parties, even if one party is gaining more from the transaction than the other party. <div class="align-center"> <figure class="image-captioned"><img alt="USA_gdp_chained_2009_dollar.JPG" src="http://images.dailykos.com/images/275078/large/USA_gdp_chained_2009_dollar.JPG?1468829836" title="USA_gdp_chained_2009_dollar.JPG"> <figcaption>US GDP in chained 2009 dollars</figcaption> </figure> </div> <div class="align-center"> <figure class="image-captioned width-xl"><img alt="gdp-us-eu-japan-gdp.png" class="width-xl" src="http://images.dailykos.com/images/275125/large/gdp-us-eu-japan-gdp.png?1468851488" title="gdp-us-eu-japan-gdp.png"> <figcaption>A semi-closed economy and permanent trade surplus does Japan little favors</figcaption> </figure> </div> The other effect of the rise of China, is the rise of the chinese consumer. It does us no good to keep China dirt poor. Whereas China today has a sizeable middle class who is able to buy american goods. There are <a href="http://fortune.com/2016/05/18/apple-iphone-china/" target="_blank">131 million IPhones in service in China</a>, more than the 110 million in the USA. <a href="http://media.gm.com/media/us/en/gm/news.detail.html/content/Pages/news/us/en/2016/Jan/0121-global-sales.html" target="_blank">GM sells 3.6 million cars in China</a> in 2015, more than the 3 million sold in the USA. <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-helps-ease-hollywoods-wounds-1465765019" target="_blank">Chinese box office makes up 25% of Hollywood’s box office revenues</a>- fully half of US domestic box office, which makes up 50%. Even the <a href="http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/epaper/2014-04/04/content_17409032.htm" target="_blank">NBA does brisk business</a> selling merchandise in China. One could imagine Hollywood and NBA revenues has a lot more room to grow if only we had a free trade treaty with China which protects our IP. In summary China’s meteoric rise has given shell shocked american workers a case of PTSD. People don’t realize that this phenomenon is only one moment in time. And that moment looks to be over. China’s rise is not easily duplicated by any other country neither. India has much lower wages than China, and a comparable inexhaustible work force- but so far they have no made any impact in global manufacturing. So it’s highly unlikely that the TPP would transform Vietnam or Peru into ‘the next China’. If Vietnam had the wherewithal to become the next China- they would have shown signs of it by now. After all- China captured the US market without any free trade agreements. China’s current standing with the USA is no different than Vietnam’s. The long term transformation into a consumer/ service economy is not something to be feared. It is the way of a mature economy. In fact China is deliberately following in our footsteps. rss@dailykos.com (icemilkcoffee) China FreeTrade Rescued TPP Trade trump _1549267 Mon, 18 Jul 2016 16:01:06 +0000 Clinton: A Green Card with every STEM advanced degree https://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/6/30/1543844/-Clinton-A-Green-Card-with-every-STEM-advanced-degree Hillary Clinton, oft criticized for being too cautious and timid with her policy proposals, dropped a <a href="https://www.hillaryclinton.com/briefing/factsheets/2016/06/27/hillary-clintons-initiative-on-technology-innovation/" target="_blank" title="">very bold one </a>just now: <blockquote> Hillary would “staple” a green card to STEM masters and PhDs from accredited institutions </blockquote> Unlike everything else on Clinton’s <a href="https://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/" target="_blank">wonklist</a>, this proposal is simple and bold, with immediate and far-reaching impact. I haven’t formed a definitive opinion about this proposal yet- I would like to use this diary to study it in depth to see if we could arrive at an informed opinion on it. Currently our skill-based immigration largely consists of the H1B program. In the last 3 years, <a href="http://www.happyschools.com/h1b-visa-2016-cap-count-updates/" target="_blank" title="">200,000+ applications pour in for the 6</a><a href="http://www.happyschools.com/h1b-visa-2016-cap-count-updates/" target="_blank" title="">5,000 annual H1B slots</a> that open up the first week of April. A lottery system is used to determine who gets an H1B visa. A further 20,000 slots are set aside for US graduates with advanced degrees- <a href="https://www.uscis.gov/news/news-releases/uscis-reaches-fy-2016-h-1b-cap" target="_blank" title="">these 20,000 slots are snapped up within that first week of April</a> as well. Back during the recession time, there were fewer applications, but these annual H1B quotas are <a href="http://redbus2us.com/h1b-visa-cap-reach-dates-history-graphs-uscis-data/" target="_blank" title="">always used up before the year was out</a>. In the past corporations like Intel and Microsoft were the top users of H1B’s. Companies that provided good, solid careers while pushing the leading edge of technology. Here in the Silicon Valley you’ll find scores of immigrants who came in as H1B holders, put down roots and became productive citizens. Today, however, the landscape is totally different. <a href="http://www.computerworld.com/article/2494926/technology-law-regulation/technology-law-regulation-the-data-shows-top-h-1b-users-are-offshore-outsourcers.html" target="_blank" title="">Outsourcing companies like Tata, Infosys, Wipro, etc, snap up over half of the slots</a>. They use a shotgun quantity-over-quality approach to get as many visas as they can. <a href="http://www.epi.org/blog/top-10-h1b-guestworker-offshore-outsourcing/" target="_blank" title="">Only 3% of these employees go on to apply for green cards</a>. The other issue is immigration. Contrary to popular belief, H1B is technically a non-immigration visa. In order for an H1B holder to get a green card, he/she must go through <a href="https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/immigrate/employment.html" target="_blank" title="">another process called the adjustment of status</a>. This process could take up to <a href="https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletin-jun-16" target="_blank" title="">12 years for Indian nationals, and 7 years for chinese nationals</a>. A hidden problem with the H1B visa, is that H1B holders frequently bring over a spouse on an H4 visa, which doesn’t allow them to work. Every year there are <a href="http://www.americanbazaaronline.com/2015/02/26/458177-h4-visas-issued-in-6-years-between-2008-2013/" target="_blank">over 90,000 H4 visas granted</a>- this represents a significant waste of talent, as these relatively young women sit home and do nothing. If skilled immigrants are granted green cards right off the bat- their spouses will not have to be restricted from working. As you can see- the H1B program is highly problematic, and arguably abused and gamed by the outsourcers. Now moving onto Clinton’s proposal. In <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d14/tables/dt14_318.45.asp" target="_blank" title="">2012-2013</a> the following numbers of STEM advanced degrees were granted: <div class="table-wrapper"> <table border="0" class="dk5-table"> <thead> <tr> <th></th> <th>Total</th> <th>Foreign students</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <th class="AlignCenter">Master</th> <td class="AlignCenter">95,399</td> <td> 35,947 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class="AlignCenter">PhD</th> <td class="AlignCenter">26,573</td> <td class="AlignCenter">11,579</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> Since 20,000 advanced degree holders already get H1B’s every year, you could say that the net effect of Clinton’s proposal would be an additional 25,000 foreign advanced degree holders staying in the US every year. However, policies are not enacted in a vacuum. Right now F1 student visas are unlimited. We could see a surge of international students going for STEM degrees. On that score though, we could look to Canada for guidance. It turns out BC province <a href="http://www.canadavisa.com/eligibility-requirements-british-columbia-provincial-nominee-program.html#ExpressEntryBritishColumbia" target="_blank" title="">already has such a program</a> whereby advanced STEM degree holders could get permanent residence. Quebec province has a <a href="http://www.canadavisa.com/quebec-experience-class-canadian-immigration.html" target="_blank" title="">much more generous program for all college graduates</a>, with the added caveat that the applicant needs to know French. At first glance it seems like this policy has served Canada well. The Gastown area of Vancouver is touted to become ‘Silicon Valley north’, and salaries have caught up to US standard. It does seem like Canada has <a href="http://www.cicnews.com/2014/11/canada-aims-attract-285000-immigrants-2015-114047.html" target="_blank" title="">a soft quota of around 23,000</a> for this type of immigration though. So there is that. From an age-demographic standpoint, it is undoubtedly a good thing to bring in young immigrants with their entire working lives ahead of them. Likewise it is a good thing to bring in educated immigrants- and we’ve been <a href="http://www.pewhispanic.org/2015/09/28/modern-immigration-wave-brings-59-million-to-u-s-driving-population-growth-and-change-through-2065/ph_2015-09-28_immigration-through-2065-29/" target="_blank" title="">trending in the right direction</a> on that. In conclusion, this is a momentous change, but there are the key questions that the Clinton camp needs to answer: Will there be a flood of foreign students coming to the US for a Master degree in order to earn a green card? Do we need a limit on F1 visas? Or at least F1 visas for STEM students? Since this process grants green cards to graduates- that puts them well ahead of the H1B holders, who have to wait over a dozen years to get their green cards while tethered to their employers at every turn. If this fair? Will this process replace the H1B program which has been hogged by the outsourcers? Will anything be done to prevent foreign students from crowding out american students in STEM graduate programs? rss@dailykos.com (icemilkcoffee) Canada h1b HillaryClinton Immigration Outsourcing Tech _1543844 Thu, 30 Jun 2016 09:08:42 +0000 Household Income Gets Back to Pre-Recession Level https://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/6/2/1533508/-Household-Income-Gets-Back-to-Pre-Recession-Level One of the soft spots in this recovery has been the sagging household income. Everyone from Bernie Sanders on the left, to your usual opportunists on the right, have been regularly reminding us of that. The problem with this particular metric, aside from household formation changes, is that the Census Bureau does not update this number on a timely basis. The <a href="https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MEHOINUSA672N" target="_blank" title="">latest household income number</a> from the Census Bureau is the 2014 figure: <div class="align-center"> <figure class="image-captioned"><img alt="household_income.JPG" src="http://images.dailykos.com/images/258352/large/household_income.JPG?1464852413" title="household_income.JPG"> <figcaption>Official Census Bureau Household Income Chart</figcaption> </figure> </div> As you can see- the last data point was 2014. Well, it turns out that Sentier Research has been compiling <a href="http://www.sentierresearch.com/pressreleases/Sentier_Household_Income_Trends_Press_Release_April2016_05_26_16.pdf" target="_blank">their own Median Household Income series</a> using raw data from the Census Bureau. They are able to put out much more up-to-date numbers. <div class="align-center"> <figure class="image-captioned"><img alt="Household_income_unemployment.JPG" src="http://images.dailykos.com/images/258353/large/Household_income_unemployment.JPG?1464852859" title="Household_income_unemployment.JPG"> <figcaption>Up-to-date Household Income trend from Sentier Research</figcaption> </figure> </div> Their latest figures show that, as of April 2016, the real median household income at $57,243, has fully caught up with the pre-recession figure of $56,900 recorded back in Dec 07. It is also caught up with the $57,143 recorded back in Jan 09, when President Obama took office. So if anyone starts with that<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2016/06/01/mitch-mcconnell-earns-four-pinocchios-for-a-very-stale-talking-point-on-household-income/" target="_blank" title=""> ‘But Household Income dropped under Obama’ </a>argument, you can shut them down with up-to-date numbers. As an aside, another data point to ponder, is the <a href="http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpswktab1.htm" target="_blank" title="">BLS Median Weekly Wage</a>. This statistic is a measure of the median wage of a full time worker, and is not affected by changing household formation trends. <div class="align-center"> <figure class="image-captioned width-xl"><img alt="median_weekly_wage.JPG" class="width-xl" src="http://images.dailykos.com/images/258356/large/median_weekly_wage.JPG?1464854021" title="median_weekly_wage.JPG"> <figcaption>BLS Median Weekly Wage at constant 1982 dollar</figcaption> </figure> </div> As of Q1 2016, the Median Weekly Wage of a full time worker is $346 (in 1982 dollars), — the highest ever recorded since this data series began in 1979. rss@dailykos.com (icemilkcoffee) Economics HouseholdIncome Obamalegacy _1533508 Thu, 02 Jun 2016 08:05:22 +0000 So I caused the drop in the Labor Force Participation https://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/9/21/1411972/-So-I-caused-the-drop-in-Labor-Force-Participation-Rate In recent years there has been a lot of hand wringing over the <a href="http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000">drop in Labor Force Participation Rate</a>, which has fallen from a peak of 67.3% back in 2000, down to 62.6% now. <div class="dkimg-c"><img src="http://images.dailykos.com/images/165663/large/LFPR_1997_2015.jpg?1442819962" alt="" width="550" height="277" /> <div class="dkimg-cap">Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate 1997 - Aug 2015. BLS data.</div> </div> In order to get a handle on the issue, I did a few back-of-the-envelope calculations, and found that I have met the enemy. It is me. rss@dailykos.com (icemilkcoffee) baby boomer babyboomer Labor LaborForceParticipationRate lfpr Recession Recovery Unemployment _1411972 Mon, 21 Sep 2015 16:09:05 +0000 The Free Market just vetoed Keystone XL https://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/11/13/1344639/-The-Free-Market-just-vetoed-Keysonte-XL I apologize for this short diary today. As oil prices drop into the $70's, Tar sand oil from Alberta, which costs more than $85 just to extract, no longer make economical sense. So even if the GOP crams through Keystone XL, it is not going to be built in the near future.  It will be a Pyrrhic victory, just like all their other right wing 'victories'. rss@dailykos.com (icemilkcoffee) Global Warming GlobalWarming Keystone XL KeystoneXL MaryLandrieu Oil OilPrice Recommended _1344639 Thu, 13 Nov 2014 17:21:16 +0000 Border completely overrun.... or maybe not https://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/7/11/1313196/-Border-completely-overrun-or-maybe-not If you have been watching the news for the past week, you would have had the impression that the entire southern border has been overrun by illegal immigrant youths lured in by Obama's Dream Act deferrals, while border guards are reduced to wringing their hands helplessly. In reality, none of that is even remotely true. rss@dailykos.com (icemilkcoffee) BorderSecurity DREAM Act DREAMAct IllegalImmigration Immigration Immigration Reform ImmigrationReform Recommended Rescued UglyAmericanProtests Unaccompanied minors Unaccompaniedminors _1313196 Fri, 11 Jul 2014 16:26:29 +0000 Groundswell of asian american opposition to affimative action https://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/3/8/1283094/-Groundswell-of-asian-american-opposition-to-affimative-action If you have ties to the chinese american community here in California, you have no doubt seen a torrent of chain emails railing against SCA-5 this past 2 weeks. <a href="http://legiscan.com/CA/bill/SCA5/2013">SCA-5</a> is a state constitutional amendment to overturn Prop 209 and re-instate race-based affirmative action to college admissions. This issue has politicized asian americans like you wouldn't believe, in a way that serves as a cautionary tale to state Democrats. rss@dailykos.com (icemilkcoffee) AffirmativeAction AsianAmericans California ChineseAmericans SCA-5 SCA5 universityadmissions _1283094 Sat, 08 Mar 2014 17:00:21 +0000 The Prophet Mohammed and ground beef https://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/9/13/1131648/-The-Prophet-Mohammed-and-ground-beef Here in the land of the free, you can blaspheme god and man all you want, but you best watch your mouth around perishable vegetables and meats.  Diane Sawyer and ABC News just got hit with a <a href="http://www.mercurynews.com/tv/ci_21533537/apnewsbreak-bpi-sues-abc-news-defamation">$1.2 billion lawsuit</a> by Beef Products, Inc. in South Dakota- a state which has so-called 'veggie libel laws'. Apparently ABC had slimed a beef product known as 'lean, finely textured beef', AKA Pink Slime. rss@dailykos.com (icemilkcoffee) Cairoembassy Egypt Embassy Free Speech FreeSpeech Morsi _1131648 Fri, 14 Sep 2012 05:24:21 +0000 Planned Parenthood's messaging fail https://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/5/31/1096138/-Planned-Parenthood-s-messaging-fail We've all seen this movie before. In 2009 ACORN got ambushed by a sting video, and the Democratic congress panicked and gutted ACORN. Subsequent investigations (<a href="http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2010/06/15/preliminary-report-clears-acorn/">CRS</a>, <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/07/AR2009120703985.html">MA Attorney General</a>,  <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&sqi=2&ved=0CF4QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fag.ca.gov%2Fcms_attachments%2Fpress%2Fpdfs%2Fn1888_acorn_report.pdf&ei=jyfHT9-8JcPW2gXQp52iCw&usg=AFQjCNFVmscUINw85hCV8DAga-c5vKZ3jg&sig2=4mUcNcMtn4mdai3k1FMDCQ">CA Attorney General</a>) found that ACORN had done nothing wrong in these sting videos. The supposed sting video was revealed to be <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0B0wxt3XYc">selectively edited and phonier than a 3 dollar bill</a>. But all that vindication came too late - Congress already killed ACORN. Not even a year later- USDA appointee Shirley Sherrod was ambushed with another gotcha video from Breitbart. Tom Vilsack fired her summarily. And then he found out that her quote was <a href="http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0710/40402.html">taken completely out of context</a>, and her speech, far from being racist, was actually a personal testimony against racism. Sherrod was vindicated, but the Obama administration's tragicomic incompetence was on the front page for a solid week. rss@dailykos.com (icemilkcoffee) Andrew Breitbart AndrewBreitbart LiveAction Planned Parenthood PlannedParenthood sexselection Sting Video _1096138 Thu, 31 May 2012 16:00:05 +0000 I am not convinced of Troy Davis' innocence https://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/9/22/1019159/-I-am-not-convinced-of-Troy-Davis-innocence First of all, let me start by saying that I agree wholeheartedly that the DA and the police have commited practically every prosecutorial abuse possible here: biased line-up identification, interrogation and coercion of minors without their parents' presence, use of jail house snitches, staged re-enactments with witnesses, and pressure on witnesses to converge their stories. However that doesn't mean Troy Davis is innocent. rss@dailykos.com (icemilkcoffee) DeathPenalty Troy Davis TroyDavis _1019159 Thu, 22 Sep 2011 15:00:04 +0000 Obama: not a chump https://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/9/21/1018789/-Obama-not-a-chump The recent high profile and <a href="http://www.mercurynews.com/nation-world/ci_18937484">increasingly suspicious</a> collapse of Solyndra has left the Obama Administration looking like a bunch of dolts. The right wing noise machine is just besides themselves that Obama has bet and lost $535 million on Solyndra loan guarantees. Lost in the noise however is yesterday's breakthrough announcement from First Solar, another american solar panel pioneer. rss@dailykos.com (icemilkcoffee) AlternativeEnergy FirstSolar Solar Solyndra _1018789 Wed, 21 Sep 2011 15:00:02 +0000 Good news: Total Bailout costs only $87 Billion https://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/4/23/851561/-Good-news-Total-Bailout-costs-only-87-Billion Here is some good news to start your weekend on. Timothy Geithner just announced that the total costs of the bailouts are projected to be only $87 billion. rss@dailykos.com (icemilkcoffee) Bail Bailout Bailouts FannieFreddie GM TARP TimGeithner _851561 Sat, 24 Apr 2010 01:49:14 +0000 Taking the pulse of Immigration Reform: Who should be legalized? https://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/3/25/850825/-Taking-the-pulse-of-Immigration-Reform-Who-should-be-legalized With Health Care Reform on the home stretch, I would like to switch gear and talk about the powderkeg issue of Immigration Reform. Even within the comfortable confines of DailyKos, Immigration Reform is a controversial subject. In order to understand our differences better, I am doing a "Sense of the Kos" survey in order to see where we, as a community of progressives, stand on this issue. rss@dailykos.com (icemilkcoffee) Amnesty CIR Immigration _850825 Thu, 25 Mar 2010 21:44:49 +0000 Cram Session: Cliff Notes on the House Reconciliation https://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/3/19/847159/-Cram-Session-Cliff-Notes-on-the-House-Reconciliation This is a late night cram session on the House Reconciliation Act. So curl up on the couch and join the study group: Full text: <a href="http://docs.house.gov/rules/hr4872/111_hr4872_amndsub.pdf">http://docs.house.gov/...</a> summary: <a href="http://docs.house.gov/energycommerce/SECTION_BY_SECTION.pdf">http://docs.house.gov/...</a> Due to the late hour and my brain's impending shut-down, this diary will just be slap-dash Cheat sheet style. Without further ado.... rss@dailykos.com (icemilkcoffee) Amendment HCR HealthCareReform Housevote NancyPelosi Pelosi reconciliation _847159 Fri, 19 Mar 2010 10:42:06 +0000 Devil in the Details 3: Medicaid goes Mainstream https://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/3/12/844690/-Devil-in-the-Details-3-Medicaid-goes-Mainstream Continuing on with my 'drill-down' study of the Senate Health Reform Bill; today we'll look at a groundbreaking change for Medicaid that seems to have received little notice. rss@dailykos.com (icemilkcoffee) eyeplucking HCR HealthCareReform Medicaid Rescued _844690 Sat, 13 Mar 2010 01:45:28 +0000 Devil in the Details 2: AHIP took a left hook to the liver https://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/12/22/817834/-Devil-in-the-Details-2-AHIP-took-a-left-hook-to-the-liver <blockquote> Preface: In the interest of breaking through the current 'Kill Bill' vs 'Save & Improve Bill' deadlock here on DKos- I am doing a nooks-and-cranny exploration of the HCR Bill. Hopefully this will refocus our energies and advance the debate beyond the current logjam. </blockquote> One favorite punch among mexican boxers is a short, upwards punch aimed at just below the right rib cage. A lot of times a casual spectator might not even see this punch landing except on replay. Just as often, the recipient of said punch would'nt feel its effects until a good 10 seconds later- when he doubles over onto the canvas. rss@dailykos.com (icemilkcoffee) HealthCareReform lossratio managers' amendment managersamendment Rescued SenateBill sunsetclause _817834 Tue, 22 Dec 2009 08:38:47 +0000 Devil in the Details: Mandate not mandatory https://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/12/21/817417/-Devil-in-the-Details-Mandate-not-mandatory <blockquote> Preface: In the interest of breaking through the current 'Kill Bill' vs 'Save & Improve Bill' deadlock here on DKos- I will do a nooks-and-cranny exploration of the HCR Bill in a series of diaries. Hopefully this will refocus our energies and advance the debate beyond the current logjam. </blockquote> As the cliche goes- the devil is in the details. In a <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/12/18/816523/-I-am-starting-a-new-religious-cultwanna-join">previous diary</a> I facetiously brought to your attention the religious exemption to the much hated Mandate. Well- as it turns out, you don't even have to swear off pancakes and join my new cult to avoid the Mandate... rss@dailykos.com (icemilkcoffee) getoutofjailcard grandfathered HealthCareReform loophole Mandate Penalty Waiver _817417 Mon, 21 Dec 2009 11:27:31 +0000 I am starting a new religious cult- wanna join? https://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/12/18/816523/-I-am-starting-a-new-religious-cult-wanna-join Like most of you, I've been sick to my stomach over the Mandate. How could the government force me to hand my hard earned money over to the for-profit (and lots- United Health's CEO made $54 million in 2006) insurance cartels? You can trot out 'risk pool', 'adverse selection', and Paul Krugman all you want- but you know and I know (and <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/12/18/114114/55">67% of americans</a> know) that the Mandate is fundamentally unjust. Now then yesterday I caught a small glimmer of hope. rss@dailykos.com (icemilkcoffee) Health Care HealthCare Iwishitwassnark Mandate ReligiousExemption Snark _816523 Sat, 19 Dec 2009 02:28:51 +0000 3 Ways to make the mandate palatable https://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/12/16/815622/-3-Ways-to-make-the-mandate-palatable At this late hour, I think we all have to face the reality that: The mandate is not going away. For reasons that Ezra Klein and others have already elucidated- if you are going to force insurers to take all comers, you must also have a mandate to force healthy people to buy insurance. The two go hand-in-hand. As much as we hate it- the mandate is going to stay in the bill. So the only question now is- how do we make this shit sandwich a little more palatable. rss@dailykos.com (icemilkcoffee) 2010 Health Care HealthCare Mandate _815622 Thu, 17 Dec 2009 07:54:24 +0000