OK-Sen: Latest polls

Daily Kos Staff

Sunday October 24, 2004 · 10:21 PM PDT

2004/10/24 · 22:21

The Tulsa World/KOTV has a good poll for Brad Carson out today. But looking at the polling on the race in general, it's obvious this one will be tight to the end.

Tulsa World/KTVU. 10/14-19. MoE 3.5% (July results)

Carson (D) 47 (42)
Coburn (R) 40 (39)

Sooner Poll (R). 10/20-21. MoE 4.4% (10/14 results)

Coburn (R) 38 (41)
Carson (D) 37 (43)

DSCC Poll 10/18-20. MoE 4% (9/19-22)

Carson (D) 45 (44)
Coburn (R) 44 (40)

Wilson Strategies (R). 10/8-10. MoE 4.4% (10/1-3)

Carson (D) 40 (43)
Coburn (R) 38 (41)

It's an open seat, so none of the "incumbent rules" apply. As for that Tulsa World poll, here's a snippet from their (subscription only) article:

The poll showed that the Senate contest is in a dead heat in Oklahoma City, where each of the leading. Candidates received 43 percent support from those surveyed. In the areas outside Oklahoma City and Tulsa, 51 percent gave the nod to Carson and 38 percent said they would vote for Coburn, the polling firm said.

Soltow, executive director of research at the University of Tulsa, said that based on previous surveys, he was somewhat surprised at the poll's findings in Tulsa. Forty-eight percent of Tulsans surveyed said they would vote for Carson, while 39 percent favored Coburn, the polling firm said.

Note that MoEs for subgroups are usually ridiculously high, so don't bet the farm on the regional numbers. But if Carson is, indeed, ahead in Tulsa, Coburn's task is that much tougher. Republicans hold a 30,000 voter registration edge in Tulsa.

Update: One last fundraising push. It's not too late to contribute and make an impact on this and the rest of the endorsed races.

OK-Sen: Latest polls

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