As early as Friday, Aug. 26, Bosner knew that Katrina could turn into a major emergency.
In daily e-mails -- known as National Situation Updates -- sent to Chertoff, Brown and others in the days before Katrina made landfall in the Gulf Coast, Bosner warned of its growing strength -- and of the particular danger the hurricane posed to New Orleans, much of which lies below sea level.
But Bosner says FEMA failed to organize the massive mobilization of National Guard troops and evacuation buses needed for a quick and effective relief response when Katrina struck. He says he and his colleagues at FEMA's D.C. headquarters were shocked by the lack of response.
"We could see all this going downhill," Bosner said, "but there was nothing we could do."
NPR provides the text of the e-mail alerts, called National Situation Updates, sent to Brown and Chertoff. The first such
National Situation Update went out on August 26, 2005, days before Katrina reached New Orleans:
The eye of Katrina came ashore at 6:30 p.m. EDT Thursday near the Broward/Dade County line as a category one hurricane with sustained winds of 75 mph. Hurricane force winds extended outward up to 10 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles meaning that several hours before the eye made landfall tropical storm force winds and the accompanying rains were already impacting the south Florida area. By 1 a.m., maximum sustained winds had decreased to 70 mph and Katrina had again become a tropical storm.
Media reports attribute Katrina with four fatalities, three due to blown-down trees. Florida Power & Light said more than a million customers were without electricity, including 777,000 customers in Miami-Dade County, 533,000 in Broward County and 64,000 in Palm Beach County.
[snip]
At 5 a.m. EDT, the eye of Hurricane Katrina was located just offshore of southwestern Florida over the Gulf of Mexico about 50 miles north-northeast of Key West. Katrina is moving west near 5 mph. This motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours with a slight increase in forward speed. Now that Katrina has emerged over the Gulf of Mexico maximum sustained winds have again increased to 75 mph and Katrina is once again a category one hurricane.
The next National Situation Update, issued on Saturday, August 27, detailed the gathering threat as Katrina headed towards the Gulf Coast:
Katrina Becomes a Category Three Hurricane, Aims Towards Northern Gulf Coast
[snip]
Katrina is now a Category Three hurricane and some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Reconnaissance aircraft data indicates that the Katrina has also become a larger hurricane.
[snip]
State of Emergency Declared in Mississippi, Louisiana DueIn anticipation of a possible landfall, Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour and Louisiana Governor Kathleen Blanco declared States of Emergency Friday. In Louisiana, New Orleans is of particular concern because much of that city lies below sea level.
According to Gov. Blanco, Lake Pontchartrain is a very large lake that sits next to the city of New Orleans and if the hurricane winds blow from a certain direction, there are dire predictions of what may happen in the city.
Robert Latham, director of the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency, said evacuations of tourists along the coast could begin late Saturday afternoon, followed by mandatory evacuations of coastal residents on Sunday. The National Guard had been activated to help with storm preparations, he said.
The last time Mississippi or Louisiana saw landfall from a storm classified as Category 4 or stronger was in August 1969, when Hurricane Camille roared ashore with winds in excess of 155 mph, killing 143 people.[boldface added by diarist]
The National Situation Update for Sunday, August 28, continues to warn of the oncoming disaster:
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).
Dangerous Category Four Hurricane Katrina Continues West-Northwestward But Expected To Turn Northward
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the North Central Gulf Coast from Morgan City Louisiana eastward to the Alabama/Florida border including the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.
A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect from east of the Alabama/Florida border to Destin, Florida and from west of Morgan City to Intracoastal City, Louisiana.
[snip]
Hurricane Katrina Upgraded to Category 4
Coastal residents jammed freeways and gas stations as they rushed to get out of the way of Hurricane Katrina, which grew into a dangerous Category 4 storm early Sunday as it headed for New Orleans and the Louisiana coast. Katrina gained strength overnight, become a Category 4 with 145 mph sustained winds as it moved over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico early this morning. Katrina could become a Category 5 storm before landfall.
A hurricane watch extended from Louisiana to the Alabama-Florida border, and President Bush declared a state of emergency in Louisiana. His spokesman urged residents along the coast to heed authorities' advice to evacuate. Katrina could be especially devastating if it strikes New Orleans because the city sits below sea level and is dependent on levees and pumps to keep the water out. A direct hit could wind up submerging the city in several feet of water.
Making matters worse, at least 100,000 people in the city lack the transportation to get out of town. The Superdome might be used as a shelter of last resort for people who have no cars, with city bus pick-up points around New Orleans.
[snip]
State and Federal Preparedness for Hurricane Katrina
Federal Actions:
The FEMA National Response Coordination Center (NRCC) Red Team is activated at Level I (Full Activation).
FEMA headquarters is conducting daily video-teleconferences at noon EDT with FEMA Region IV, the National Hurricane Center and the potentially affected States.
The FEMA ERT-N (Blue) team was activated and deployed to Baton Rouge, LA at noon August 27.
FEMA Region IV: The RRCC in Atlanta activated at Level I (full activation).
FEMA Region VI: The RRCC in Denton, TX activated at Level I (full activation).
State Actions:
Alabama EOC is activating, with full operations on 8/27.
Florida EOC is at Level 1 (full activation).
Georgia EOC is at Level 1 operations.
Mississippi EOC activated, State of Emergency has been declared.
Louisiana EOC is fully activated, with mandatory evacuation orders issued.
And now the
National Situation Update for Monday, August 29:
NExtremely [sic] Dangerous Category Four Hurricane Katrina Moving Northward Toward Southeastern Louisiana And The Northern Gulf Coast
A hurricane warning is in effect for the north central gulf coast from Morgan City Louisiana eastward to the Alabama/Florida border including the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed this
evening.
[snip]
Coastal storm surge flooding of 18 to 22 feet above normal tide levels, locally as high as 28 feet, along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Some levees in the greater New Orleans area could be overtopped. [boldface added by diarist] Significant storm surge flooding will occur elsewhere along the central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast. NOAA buoy 42040, located about 50 miles east of the mouth of the Mississippi river recently reported waves heights of at least 46 feet.
[snip]
Preparedness Activities
State Actions:
Alabama EOC is at full activation.
Florida EOC is at Level 1 (full activation).
Georgia EOC is at Level 1 operations.
Mississippi EOC activated, State of Emergency has been declared.
Louisiana EOC is fully activated, with mandatory evacuation orders issued.
Federal Actions:
FEMA Headquarters: The FEMA National Response Coordination Center (NRCC) Red Team is activated at Level I (Full Activation).
FEMA headquarters is conducting daily video-teleconferences at noon EDT with FEMA Region IV, the National Hurricane Center and the potentially affected States.
The Logistics Readiness Center is operational 24/7.
MERS Teams have been deployed to Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida, Georgia, and Texas to support Hurricane Katrina response operations.
32 Disaster Medical Assistance Teams have been sent to staging areas in Louisiana, Alabama, Texas, and Tennessee in preparation for responding to Hurricane Katrina.
Seven Urban Search and Rescue (US&R) Task Forces have been deployed to Louisiana, Alabama, Florida and Mississippi in preparation for responding to Hurricane Katrina.
The ERT-N Blue is deployed to the Louisiana State Emergency Operations Center in Baton Rogue.
FEMA Region IV RRCC in Atlanta activated at Level I (full activation).
Four ERT-As are operational in Alabama, Florida, and Mississippi.
FEMA Region VI RRCC in Denton, TX activated at Level I (full activation).
Remember Leo Bosner, the FEMA official who's been sending out these e-mail alerts to Brownie and Chertoff? In the NPR story, he talks about his shock at the slow response from FEMA. I'm transcribing the radio broadcast, available at the original NPR link up top, so bear with me:
"I've been with FEMA since the agency was started in 1979, so that's 26 years...."
[Regarding the response to the Saturday, August 27 alert]: "There were some resources being mobilized, but really not quite enough for that kind of a scale...They get these things [the updates] in person, they go through their office computer and their Blackberry...."
"We sent the information up...we're the staff, we're not the President or the Director of FEMA or something...we sent the information up and we expected that by the time we came in everything would be swinging into action, and we got there and it was the sounds of silence [Bosner quietly chuckles in disbelief, according to the diarist's ears]...."
That was Friday to Saturday. According to a FEMA spokesperson in the NPR report, Brownie worked Saturday "from home, monitoring the situation." Bosner continues, describing the situation at FEMA headquarters on Saturday night:
"We'd been expecting, that given our reports and so on, there'd be some extraordinary measures taking place, so we came in Saturday night and nothing much had happened...you know, we had a few medical teams, a few search teams were in place, but there was no massive effort we could see, there was no massive effort to organize the city of New Orleans in an organized way, that clearly had to be done...there was no massive mobilization of national resources other than the few that were out there. And I think most of us, I can't speak for everyone, I know that I and a number of my colleagues, we just, we felt sort of shocked."
"You assume that if there's a fire, you're going to pull that lever, that someone will pull the lever, and you assume that if you pull the lever, that in no time these trucks and sirens will come roaring up to your building and people will jump out and have hoses and fire extinguishers and rescue equipment and things will be taken care of...you sort of imagine now if your building catches fire and you pull that lever and nothing happens, the lever comes off in your hand, there's nothing there, that's I think how we felt."
According to the FEMA spokesperson, Russ Konocki (not sure of spelling):
"Without question, there was a significant amount of recognition, and appreciation of the magnitude of the storm. We pleaded and informed state and local officials of the severity of this and encouraged everyone to take it seriously."
That's right, the FEMA spokesperson just played The Blame Game, laying responsibility off on the state and local officials. Implying, no, stating outright, that they didn't take the storm seriously. But as those of us in the reality-based community know all too well, only Brownie, Chertoff, and Bush didn't take the storm seriously. Guitar, anyone??
The NPR reporter notes that in fact, the situation was quite different on Sunday morning, with little of the activity on a national level that should have been taking place according to Mr. Bosner. No mobilization of extra National Guard troops, or organizing buses to evacuate New Orleans. At one point, she reports, Mr. Bosner only counted 12 people in the FEMA office.
Back to Mr. Bosner, who no doubt will become the target of the Rove smear machine quite soon:
"We were sitting around and somebody said where are the buses, where are the resources to get these people out of here? And I think we all just felt pretty despondent, let down, kind of numb about the whole thing."
By Monday morning, when Katrina arrived in New Orleans to great fanfare, Bosner and his colleagues could only watch "in horror" according to the NPR reporter. Bosner:
"We could all see that this was just going to go downhill, there was nothing we could do."
By Tuesday morning, when floodwaters were filling New Orleans, those of us who watched TV could see people stranded on roofs, etc. Now, when Bosner arrived at FEMA headquarters, there were 70 people in the emergency response center. They were trying to "scrounge up buses, troops, and relief supplies, but in Bosner's view, they were two days behind where they should have been, according to the NPR report.
Bosner:
"All of this has been playing catch-up after the fact, because the big mistake was made in the beginning. The people weren't evacuated out, a massive rescue effort wasn't begun early enough, and it's just a lot harder to fix these things after the fact than it would have been to take care of this beforehand."
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