The storm is now located near 24.0°N /82.6°W, or 70NM WSW of Key West, and continues
moving west at 13Kts. Central pressure has fallen to 967mb, and the max Flight level wind
had increased to 94Kts in the NW Quadrant (over an hour ago!). The thermal eye wall -- a
very good indicator of the overall 'health' of the storm's core, is 7°C - though an earlier
report showed the thermal difference was at times up to 10°C - though displaced from the
Flite Wind center.
Officially, Key West reported a max winds to 85mph -- however an unofficial report of a gust
to 102mph was received via Ham Radio operator. Winds at Dry Tortugas - about 40 miles to the
WNW of Rita --are now gusting to 66mph, and the water temp is 84°F. Winds will likely gust to over
100mph there in 2 hours.
What is becoming of great concern is the forecast development of a very large anticyclonic
system across the entire Gulf of Mexico during the next 24-48 hours. This will permit the
storm to grow even larger in size and intensity. The similarities in the size and location of this
anti-cyclone is again eerily similar to that what took place 3 weeks ago with Katrina. All the
models are beginning tightly cluster along the upper coast of Texas -- and several of the more
reliable models are forecasting Rita to reach CAT 4 intensity. The increasingly smaller range of
track evolutions -- and for intensity forecasts - along with the actual data - do support the distinct
possibility of a very large, CAT 4 storm in the Guff by Thursday, and one that will turn northwestward
and then northward striking the coast on Saturday near Galveston. The GFS has been the leader
of the pack for the model forecasts -- and when dealing with track forecasts beyond 36 hours -- is
often very reliable. The 12Z run, and the most recent 18Z run now show a landfall on the east side
of Galveston Bay Saturday afternoon. Except for 2 cycle runs yesterday, the GFS has been forecasting
a land fall near Galveston for 3 days (12 model run cycles).
NOTE: For more frequent Updates on this Major, if not Extremely Dangerous Hurricane - please check my blog on the Weather Underground
Steve Gregory 
WeatherInsite
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