The Thermal Eye wall temperature gradient is now up to 14°C - indicate of a strong CAT 5 hurricane.
The 25NM Wide eye is currently located near 24.1N/ 86.0W or 690NM SE of Galveston, TX - and is moving west
at 10Kts - slightly slower than 12 hours ago..
Rita is still deepening, but during the next 2 days, will likely fluctuate in intensity as eye wall replacement cycles commence.
In addition, by Thursday, RITA will be moving over slightly cooler waters -- and the SST analysis shows a series of
'warm' and 'cool' water pools of water scattered about the Gulf.
Passage over a slightly cooler area of water would no doubt cause some weakening, while
the converse would be true if is moves across a warmer pool of water. However, with the storm moving at a
solid 10-12Kts -- and no significant slowdown expected -- the change in intensity may not be as pronounced as typical -- since
the storm is 'on the move' and will continually be moving over still relatively warm surface waters.
The major area of shallow warm water is within 100NM of the Texas coast. This combined with some slight
increase in shear expected during the final 12 hours before landfall -- should drop the WIND INTENSITY down
by 1 full Category. HOWEVER, as we learned from Katrina -- Wind Intensity, used for Categorizing a Hurricane,
doesn't always tell the whole story. Assuming RITA does attain CAT 5 intensity, and stays at that strength,
or close to it -- it will develop a huge CATEGORY 5 storm surge that will strike the Texas coast - regardless of
any wind speed decrease during the final 12 hours before landfall. Officially, Katrina hit the MS Coast as
a strong CAT 3 - but produced a catastrophic Category 5 storm surge damage for a 120 mile stretch of coast
line to the east. Rita may strike with the same CAT 5 storm surge -- but I believe it will cover a somewhat smaller extent
of coastline -- about 50NM - compared to Katrina's 120 mile wide path of utter devastation. But keep in mind
even if the storm does come ashore near Freeport -- the storm surge in Galveston Bay will be severe.
The latest 12Z model runs are clustered very tightly on a landfall between Port O'Conner and Freeport Saturday
morning & the consensus for intensity estimates are for a strong CAT 4. Those living in the coastal area from near
Corpus Christi to Galveston should begin evacuation within the next 24 hours. Those living north of Galveston
to Lake Charles, LA, and from Corpus Christi to Brownsville -- should have a 'Plan' in place in the event the storm
veers off the expected track.
Please check Darksyde's Blog as we are collaborating on some posts today - and probably through landfall.
Those subscribers living in the Texas/LA area will get specific updates for their locations starting Thursday.
You can get full updates by visiting my Tropical Weather Blog or by subscribing
to my E-mail delivered Enhanced Update Service.
Steve Gregory
RSS wXunderground Feed
PIX 1 - HI-RES Visible image within past hour -- the western side of the eyewall is 'highlighted' due
to the low sun angle - and gives a true sense of 'depth perception' for the ring of intense thunderstorms
that make up the eyewall.
PIX 2 - Enhanced IR image - superb CDO signature of a storm on it's way to becoming a
CAT 5 Hurricane.
PIX 3 - The outflow from the storm is excellent in all quadrants -- but extremely strong to the north through
east quadrant, as the outflow channel has tapped into a 70KT jet streak feeding into an upper low out over
the Atlantic.
PIX 4 - The 12Z model runs are strongly converging on the Texas coast near Port O'Connor. However, despite
this remarkable consensus, a shift of 50 or 100 miles is almost as likely as the consensus for hitting the Texas coast is!
PIX 5 - Projected NHC track as graphically produced by Global Tracks software. Though NHC does not yet
forecast full CAT 5 intensity, the shading above still shows CAT 4 intensity. Landfall as a strong CAT 3/borderline
CAT 4 is likely. BUT REMEMBER Katrina -- even 3 hours away -- she moved 25 miles further to the east than was
anticipated. The state of the art simply does not allow for the precision we all are looking for. And model track
'errors at 3 days out are close to 200 miles. Considering the tremendous consistency and agreement between
all the models -- I would guestimate a more likely variation in the point of landfall will be +/- 100NM
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