Arizona (Strong Republican Lead) - Sen. Jon Kyl (R) v. Jim Pederson (D). Pederson's campaign began 2006 with a seemingly insurmountable
29-point deficit (his worst showing). Since then, however, Pederson's campaign has gradually chipped away at Senator Kyl's lead. According to a 9/18 Survey USA
poll, Pederson has narrowed the deficit to 5-points. The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza (
The Fix) sees immigration as the "
X-factor" in the race. On this issue, Senator Kyl and Senator John McCain, Kyl's reelection campaign chairman, have profound disagreements. Pederson's ability to attach himself to an unwilling McCain in coming weeks is a must if Pederson is to unseat Kyl.
Maryland (Weak Democratic Lead) - Ben Cardin (D) v. Michael Steele (R). Cardin has led Steele for most of this race. On February 19, Cardin's lead stood at 14-points. Thereafter, it declined and has fluctuated in the 5 to 11 percent range. However, Steele has come on strong in recent days, as reflected in a recent Survey USA poll showing a 1-point Steele lead. Perhaps Survey USA's most significant finding is that 33 percent of African-Americans in Maryland presently support Steele (the same poll pegged Governor Ehrlich's support among African-Americans at 15 percent). Unless Cardin recaptures some African-American support, this race will be a nailbiter.
Michigan (Strong Democratic Lead) - Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) v. Mike Bouchard (R). Michigan's high rate of unemployment continues to weigh on the minds of voters. However, it is clear that few blame Senator Stabenow, whose present lead is anywhere between 13 and 19 points. Republican expectations of a win in Michigan are perhaps best evidenced by their next delegate: Vice President Cheney, whose job approval numbers have descended into the teens. Cheney himself retains a slight lead on the Imperial Wizard of the KKK and herpes.
Minnesota (Strong Democratic Lead) - Amy Klobuchar (D) v. Mark Kennedy (R) (open seat). Although Klobuchar and Kennedy are neck-in-neck in fundraising, the latest University of Minnesota poll shows Klobuchar with a 16-point lead over Kennedy.
Montana (Weak Democratic Lead) - Sen. Conrad Burns (R) v. Jon Tester (D). Sen. Burns has struggled to gain ground on Tester, whose lead stands at 7 percent, over the past few weeks. Burns's alleged association with Jack Abramoff has hampered his attempts do so.
Missouri (Weak Democratic Lead) - Sen. Jim Talent (R) v. Claire McCaskill (D). To reiterate points from a recent entry, McCaskill has soared 6-points since August and now holds a 3-point lead over Talent (Sept. 12). Rasmussen, who conducted both surveys, reports that McCaskill currently "has the edge with both unaffiliated voters and especially moderates. In August, the two were basically tied among unaffiliated voters, but McCaskill has enjoyed the same two-to-one advantage with moderates in both polls." With stem cell research and minimum wage initiatives on the November ballot, McCaskill stands a particularly good chance of unseating Talent. McCaskill supports, and Talent opposes, both initiatives. Talent's opposition to stem cell research looks to be particularly damaging as Republicans comprise a significant share of the 62% of Missourians who support it.
New Jersey (Weak Republican Lead) - Sen. Robert Menendez (D) v. Thomas Kean Jr. (R). Sen. Menendez remains 4-points behind Kean, whose success thus far owes in large part to his name. Of course, any talk of success is premature. New Jersey's claim to fame come election time is her political poker face - she'll conceal her hand while the polls suggest a surprisingly tight-race. On election day, however, New Jersey almost always has a blue Ace in-hand. Nevertheless, as I (sarcastically) suggested yesterday, Senator Menendez's reelection bid will remain in jeopardy so long as he is in running against Thomas Kean Sr.
Nevada (Strong Republican Lead) - Sen. John Ensign (R) v. Jack Carter (D). Jack Carter's month started off well with the birth of his first grandson. Then it was downhill. On September 10, Carter was hospitalized with colitis (inflammed colon) and was forced to cancel a couple of campaign appearances. On September 15, a Research 2000 poll showed Ensign with a 21-point lead over Carter with 9 percent claiming undecided status. Over, right? Wrong. According to a Rasmussen poll released on September 22, Carter is just 9 points behind Ensign. This seems consistent with the race's dynamics to date, e.g. WSJ/Zogby (Carter 3-points behind on Aug. 21). I am not very familiar with Research 2000, but would suspect they are either GOP polling-goons or else were drunk and prank-called half of their sample. Nevada Blue explains in some detail on DailyKos. On a different note, Senate minority leader Harry Reid's 2-month-late endorsement of Carter last month was accompanied by a measly $250,000 dollars. Reid had previously intended to reneg on his promise to Carter in favor of a confounding "non-aggression pact" with Ensign. Seeing as the DSCC has $30 million on-hand, one has to wonder whether the DSCC is trying to win an election or appease Harry Reid's self-interested political maneuvering. An uphill battle for Carter? Yes. Over? Far from it.
Ohio (Weak Democratic Lead) - Sen. Mike DeWine (R) v. Sherrod Brown (D). Among the most pleasant surprises for Democrats this year has been the emergence of Sherrod Brown, whose criticism of free-trade agreements like NAFTA has been well-received in Ohio. While Brown remains the leader, it remains unclear how comfortable of a lead he holds. The University of Cinncinati (9/17) says 4 percent, Quinnipiac (9/17) says 1 percent and Survey USA, 10 percent.
Pennsylvannia (Strong Democratic Lead) - Sen. Rick Santorum (R) v. Bob Casey (D). In the second most-expensive campaign of the season (behind Sen. Clinton's projected thrashing of whoever emerges from the GOP primary), Bob Casey remains the front-runner as the latest poll by Rasmussen(9/20) places him 10 points ahead of Sen. Santorum. Casey, who is Catholic and pro-life, has campaigned on a themeof values, faith and social responsibility. Although the right-wing media, e.g. The Washington Times, Robert Novak, The American Spectator, have endeavored to derail Casey's campaign, Casey's message continues to resonate with Pennnsylvanians. Voter discontent with Santorum stems in part from his leading role in the Terry Schiavo affair, insistence that the "right to privacy...doesn't exist...in the United States Constitution" and his misrepresentation of intelligence concerning Iraq. More recently, Santorum came under fire in June of 2006, when he declared on Fox News that weapons of mass destruction had been found in Iraq. The documents upon which his assertion was based, however, revealed that the "weapons" were actually chemical munitions from the Iran-Iraq war, buried in 1990. Barring a dramatic shift in Pennsylvannia, this will be the number three Republican's final term.
Rhode Island (Weak Democratic Lead) - Sen. Lincoln Chafee v. Sheldon Whitehouse (D). On September 19, I authored a concise recap of Chafee's primary win over Republican challenger Stephen Laffrey: "Although Republican Senator Lincoln Chafee has made a name for himself bucking the GOP establishment and voting for Democratic colleague John F. Kerry in 2004, the White House and RNC made a strategic decision to financially and vocally support Chafee in his primary contest...based on their belief that Chafee's...seat would remain in Republican hands if the party sent Chafee..." Thereafter, the Washington Post asserted that "[t]he Chafee win represented a rare bit of political good news for Republicans, who are struggling to retain control of both houses of Congress in a highly volatile election year..." On September 18, however, the Republican "party" was over, as Rasmussen reported an 8-point Whitehouse lead over Chafee. While it would be premature to place the Rhode Island race in the "Strong Democratic Lead" category, Republican "strategery" respecting Chafee is suspect. Rasmussen sums up the present state of the race as follows: "The GOP establishment forcefully backed Republican Lincoln Chafee in the primary over a more conservative and arguably less-electable Republican. But, perhaps damaged by having to struggle so long for the nomination, it is not clear how electable Senator Chafee remains."
Tennessee (Weak Democratic Lead) - Bob Corker (R)(Frist retiring) v. Harold Ford (D). This race has bounced back and forth. According to the latest poll of likely voters (
Survey USA, 9/11), Ford has the ball and a 3-point lead over Corker. Among those who identify themselves as white, voters favored Corker 49%-45. Among black voters, Ford was favored 83%-14. Most significant was the fact that independents favored Ford 53%-40. Most surprising (and also significant) was the fact that more Republicans voted for Ford (13%) than Democrats for Corker (11%). If you're familiar with political polling, you know that the reverse is almost always true. Of course, Frist has not done a particularly good job as majority leader nor has Bush as President. The fact that Harold Ford was an early, now tepid, supporter of the Iraq war, opposes gay marriage, is pro-life and voted to allow school prayer and public display of the 10 Commandments might also have something to do with it (of course it does).
Virginia (Weak Republican Lead) - Sen. George Allen (R) v. Jim Webb (D). While skeptics dismissed Virginia citing early polls showing a 20-point Allen lead, Our Republic was among the earliest to predict a tight-race in Virginia. Senator Allen's affinity for the confederate flag, which he kept on his desk as Governor beside an old noose, proposed changes to educational guidelines whereby "settlers" would be substituted for "slaves" in history books, attempt to block a holiday honoring Martin L. King and proclamation of National Confederate Heritage Month as Governor had already offended, or at least embarrassed, a great many Virginians. Already on thin-ice, Allen found himself underwater when he made racist remarks about a Webb campaign-worker of Indian descent. Referring to the young man as "Maccaca," Allen proceeded to welcome him to America and "the real Virginia" (see video in right column). Meanwhile, Webb, a highly decorated Vietnam veteran and former secretary of the Navy who opposed the war in Iraq, has become increasingly popular among Virginians, who witnessed Webb's strong performances in debates against Allen. While Allen continues to insist that the decision to go to war with Iraq was the right one, Webb insists on the need for independent judgment in Congress, noting that Allen has supported the Bush Administration 97 percent of the time. So where are we? Polling in the last couple of weeks has provided few clear answers. The last two Zogby polls put Webb in the lead, but the more recent Mason-Dixon, Survey USA and Rasmussen polls have Webb trailing, on average, just 4.5 points. Clearly, as skeptics and Allen's campaign now concede, "We have a real race."
Washington State (Strong Democratic Lead) - Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) v. Mike McGavick (R). On May 15, 2005, McGavick checked into the race 13 points behind Cantwell and narrowed the deficit to 4 points by July 23, 2005. Since then, McGavick's deficit has fluctuated wildly between 5 and 17 points. On September 6, it returned to 17 after the media hold of a drunk driving incident. However, a Cantwell-story involving an unpaid loan to a lobbyist soon followed - her lead fell to 6, where it presently stands. How then is Washington strong democratic? Through a year-and-a-half of extensive and volatile polling and minor scandals on both sides, McGavick has never come any closer than 4 points to Cantwell in any poll; and since his 4-point best in July, Senator Cantwell has averaged a 10.5-point lead over McGavick (based on the 3 Rasmussen, 2 Survey USA, 2 Zogby and 1 Strategic Vision polls from Jul. 23 to Sept. 20). Of course, Cantwell squeaked out a 49 (and change) win in 2000 - isn't it possible for McGavick to finally close the gap? Not really. First and most obviously is the emerging visibility of Bush's achilles heel (governing). Second, McGavick continues to make social security privatization a centetrpiece of his campaign. His campaign staff apparently neglected to inform him that his wasn't a particularly good idea. In 2002, for example, an Economic Opportunity Institute study replete with polling data showed Washington state residents generally like the idea of private accounts (50%/41% favor/disfavor); that is, until you get into the details, at which point independents and any democrats you had on board say "nuh uh" and bail (38%/57% favor/disfavor). Oops.
Democratic Contribution Links (Weak Democratic and Republican-led Races):
Senator Menendez's campaign in New Jersey.
Jim Webb's Senate campaign in Virginia.
Harold Ford's Senate campaign in Tennessee.
Jack Carter's Senate campaign in Nevada.
Ben Cardin's Senate Campaign in Maryland.
Claire McCaskill's Senate Campaign in Missouri.
Jon Tester's Senate Campaign in Montana.
Sherrod Brown's Senate Campaign in Ohio.
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