Everyone looking to succeed Dennis Hastert in the House better gear up quickly. It looks like we're headed for an early-2008 special election.
Bob Novak has the details in his email newsletter:
An Illinois Republican source tells us former Speaker J. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) plans to resign November 6 this year instead of finishing out his term. This would create a vacancy and trigger a special election in the 14th District.
Under Illinois statute, the governor, Rod Blagojevich (D), would get to pick the date of both of the special general election and the special primary election (with separate ballots for each party). The general election would have to be within 120 days of the vacancy (meaning by early March, if the November 6 resignation date holds). February 5 is the date for Illinois's presidential and congressional primaries, and slating the special election -- either the primaries or the general -- on that date would save state money.
The effect of the placing either the special primary or the special general on the same day as the presidential primary is impossible to determine at this point. If one party is seeing a more competitive presidential primary by that date, it could benefit from boosted turnout. The presence of Illinois Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) on the primary ballot could help Democrats.
In any event, a special election would entail a much briefer campaign, which would favor the more well-funded candidates. That would be businessmen Jim Oberweis (R) and Bill Foster (D).
On net, Hastert's early resignation, by stirring the pot, gives Democrats a slightly better chance in this Republican district.
Democrats are very, very good in special elections (as Reps. Herseth, Chandler, and Rodriguez can attest). And with a potential Oberweis nomination for the GOP, we'd have an über-wingnut of epic proportions far out of touch with this Blueing district to run against.
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