The National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq released today effectively pre-empts whatever the Petraeus White House report is likely to include. Remember, the stated goal of the escalation was intended to quell sectarian violence enough to allow the Iraqi government room to build a governing coalition. According to the NIE:
The administration is planning to make public today parts of a sober new report by American intelligence agencies expressing deep doubts that the government of the Iraqi prime minister, Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, can overcome sectarian differences. Government officials who have seen the report say it gives a bleak outlook on the chances Mr. Maliki can meet milestones intended to promote unity in Iraq....
The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because the report will be issued this morning, and spokesmen for both the White House and the director of national intelligence declined to comment. "The report says that there’s been little political progress to date, and it’s very gloomy on the chances for political progress in the future," said one Congressional official with knowledge of its contents.
The new report also concludes that the American military has had success in recent months in tamping down sectarian violence in the country, according to officials who have read it.
TPM has a copy of the report online, and reading through, the assessment for any political progress made by Maliki and his government is bleak:
The Iraqi Government will become more precarious over the next six to 12 months because of criticism by other members of the major Shia coalition (the Unified Iraqi Alliance, UIA), Grand Ayatollah Sistani, and other Sunni and Kurdish parties. Divisions between Maliki and the Sadrists have increased, and Shia factions have explored alternative coalitions aimed at constraining Maliki.
Is there any realistic expectation that an Allawi or any other Iraqi politician could successfully form a coalition where Maliki couldn't? Bush's escalation was just a political game, a way of kicking the ball six more months down the road with what he could call a new "plan" for Iraq, with the specious justification of allowing for political progress. That ain't happening, as this latest NIE shows. The unfortunate reality is that the presence of an occupying American force that is only large enough to suppress violence in limited areas for a limited amount of time has not and will not make a damned bit of difference in the political progress of the state.
At this point, the Petraeus White House report has been so discredited as politically motivated (and scheduling Petraeus's and Crocker's testimony on September 11 only underlines the fact that this report is nothing but more pro-war politics from the White House) that it hardly seems worth going through the motions. Whether written by Petraeus or by the White House, we know that it's going to conclude that we just need to kick that ball a little further down the road another six months, another year to see the kind of political progress that the NIE tells us is just not going to happen.
Congress should cancel the public testimony, file the Petraeus White House report away, and proceed on the basis of what the NIE tells us about Iraqi political progress.
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