We’ve been hearing a lot about the new poll from the Des Moines Register and I’m sure it’s given Camp Obama a lot to (ahem) hope for. However, a few folks are telling us to take this poll with a grain of salt – one of those being David Yepsen of the Des Moines Register. Check it out...
A lot of Democratic caucus-goers aren't all that Democratic. Some 40 percent of the Democratic caucus-goers say they are independents, and another 5 percent say they are Republicans. (Technically, they'll all have to re-register as Democrats to participate, but that can be done at the caucus site.) Put another way, 54 percent of the Democratic caucus-goers say they're Democrats. In 2004, it was 80 percent.
That will raise some eyebrows among party pros. While we all know the Democratic turnout will be large, the events just haven't attracted that many newcomers in the past. If that happens as the poll suggests, the caucuses will no longer be affairs of the party activists and faithful, but more like primaries.
Will some of these fair-weather Democrats not bother to show up? If they don't, it will change the outcome. If pollsters adjust the party identifications in 2008 to look like they did in 2004, Clinton could beat Obama 31 percent to 29 percent.
Or, in the unlikely event just the registered Democrats who say they'll definitely show up are counted, Clinton gets 33 percent, Obama gets 27 percent and Edwards gets 25 percent.
Just the numbers for the last presidential caucuses there...
Iowa Democratic Caucus 2004
Total Turnout: 124,000
Democrats: 99,200 (80%)
Independents: 23,560 (19%)
Republicans: 1240 (1%)
The DMR poll assumes that the percentage of Independents who’ll turn out for the Dem. Caucus will jump to 40% - and rethugs will be at 5% (wtf??!). That means numbers like these...
Iowa Democratic Caucus 2008
Projected Total Turnout: 200,0000
Democrats: 110,000 (55%) (up 11% from 2004)
Independents: 80,000 (40%) (up 340% from 2004)
Republicans: 10,000 (5%) (up 806% from 2004)
Possible I suppose – but not very likely.
Seriously - this does not compute at all. Turnout among Democrats is only going to go up by 11 percent, while turnout by independents goes up by 340 percent????
This poll is asking us to believe that Democrats are less excited by this election and our amazing candidates than by our candidates in the 2004 election, when one of the national frontrunners (Clark) wasn't even in Iowa.
Meanwhile, Hillary’s campaign has put out a new press release on some recent polls...
Two New Polls Show Clinton Momentum
CNN & Zogby Polls Both Show Hillary Leading In A Close Iowa Race
Two new polls released this morning show Hillary Clinton holding a lead in the Hawkeye State, continuing to build on her momentum in the final days before the Iowa caucuses.
A new CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted December 26-30, shows Senator Clinton leading the field with 33 percent, followed by Senator Obama with 31 percent and Senator Edwards with 22 percent. According to the poll, Hillary has picked up three points since their last survey in mid-December. Furthermore, "[t]he poll indicates that Iowa Democrats believe Clinton has the best chance of winning in November and is the most experienced." Read more about this poll at http://www.cnn.com/...
A new Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll conducted December 28-31, shows that "Clinton, a New York senator, maintained a stable four-point edge over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, 30 percent to 26 percent, in the Democratic race. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards was in third at 25 percent, down one point overnight." Read more about this poll at http://www.reuters.com/...
Also - a new Des Moines Register poll shows that among Democrats, Clinton leads 33 to 27 for Obama and 25 for Edwards. As Register columnist David Yepsen points out, had their pollsters used the 2004 turnout model, Hillary would lead by 29 to 27, figures in line with the other polls. Read the Clinton campaign’s full analysis of today’s Des Moines Register poll below.
Just the numbers:
CNN results:
Clinton 33
Obama 31
Edwards 22
Zogby
Clinton 30
Obama 26
Edwards 25
And a new campaign memo’s just come out on the state of this race. Take a look - Register poll adopts unprecedented turnout model
The Des Moines Register poll adopts an unprecedented new turnout model for the caucuses, and its new poll is out of sync with the other polling done in the race.
When you look at Democrats who last time were 80% of the turnout, Hillary wins with that group by 6%, 33 to 27 for Obama and 25 for Edwards. And as David Yepsen points out, had their pollsters used the 2004 turnout model, Hillary would lead by 29 to 27, figures in line with the other polls.
The Des Moines Register Poll this time has 40% independent voters and 5% GOP voters in the poll when past independent participation has been 15% in 2000 and 19% in 2004, and the GOP has generally made up 1% of the vote. So they are depicting an unprecedented departure from historically established turnout patterns in the caucus. Under their model, only 55% of the caucus goers would be Democrats.
The other recent polls all show Hillary trending up and leading or within 1 point of the lead, and many show her moving up from a substantial deficit to tie and having the momentum in this race.
Insider Advantage, 12/28-12/29: Clinton 30, Edwards 29, Obama 22
Zogby, 12/27-12/30: Clinton 30, Edwards 26, Obama 26
Mason-Dixon, 12/26-12/28: Clinton 23, Edwards 24, Obama 22
Research 2000, 12/26-12/27: Clinton 28, Edwards 29, Obama 29
ARG, 12/26-12/28: Clinton 31, Edwards 24, Obama 24
So we do not see this poll as accurately reflecting the trends we are seeing in other polls, on our nightly canvasses or in our own polls, and voters should understand this is a very close race, and that their participation on caucus night could make all of the difference.
(Emphasis mine. See above link for hyperlinks to polls).
Reuters also released a poll today, showing Hillary with a slight lead in Iowa...
DES MOINES, Iowa (Reuters) - Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike Huckabee hold narrow leads on their top rivals two days before the state opens the presidential nominating race, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Tuesday.
Clinton, a New York senator, maintained a stable four-point edge over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, 30 percent to 26 percent, in the Democratic race.
Meanwhile Hillary’s still out there asking for every vote. As the New York Times reports today...
Mrs. Clinton’s day on the trail did not reflect the internal concerns. She came out swinging, starting off the final 48 hours of her Iowa campaign by assuring her audience in a hotel ballroom in Ames that her administration would repair the missteps of the Bush presidency.
"After seven long years of George Bush and Dick Cheney," she said as the crowd groaned, "starting Thursday night, we are taking our country back and you all are going to lead the way."
She was joined on the trail with her daughter, Chelsea, former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, and her mother, Dorothy Rodham, who was last seen on the trail two weeks ago.
Mrs. Clinton appeared feisty yet relaxed, lacing her stump speech with jokes about drug companies and a strange technical difficulty that fed her speech back through the speakers. Hearing words that she had just spoken reverberate back through the packed room, she paused, looked up at the ceiling, and laughed.
"I was in Muscatine yesterday in the middle of going on about the Bush administration, and the microphone completely died," she said. "I said, ‘I know they’re a little obsessed with me, but this is getting absurd.’ "
The Fix (WaPo) has a decent video up HERE of Hillary talking about specifics at a campaign stop in Ames Iowa earlier today...
AMES, Iowa -- In her first event of 2008, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton drew deeply on her accomplishments both in and out of office as she sought to make the case that she alone has the requisite experience to handle the job of president.
With the Iowa caucuses now 48 hours away, Clinton is going beyond simply stating that she has been fighting for Democratic causes all her life. Beginning with her work for the Children's Defense Fund fresh out of law school, Clinton documented -- in a detailed manner -- the accomplishments she has accrued over the past three decades to a standing room only in this college town located thirty minutes north of Des Moines.
"I care about change," Clinton said. "I care about actually producing it."
Snip
"If you want to know what kind of changes I will make, look at the changes I have already made," she said. "We don't have any margin for error or time to waste."
She also pre-butted attacks from her rivals -- most notably Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) -- who have said that talking about past accomplishments means little for future results.
"When I talk about the '90s some of my opponents say 'There she goes again talking about the past,'" Clinton said. "It's not like it's ancient Rome. It's ten years ago."
(Emphasis mine)
She might also be talking about all those women out there who were born before we wimmin’ folk could vote, and are hoping they get to live long enough to see one of us elected president. You know... ninety-somethings.
Speaking of all of those fellow Hillary-supporters, I couldn’t help but add this picture from the event in Ames (credit to Marc Ambinder for posting it)...
Meanwhile, they’re still working hard to get every vote they can in Iowa. Here’s a look at the schedule for Hillary & Bill for today & tomorrow...
1/1: "Story County Picks a President Event" with Hillary
1/1: "Woodbury County Picks a President" Event with Hillary
1/1: "Pottawattamie County Picks a President" Event with Hillary
1/1: "Johnson County Picks a President" Event with Hillary
1/1: "Clinton County Picks a President" Event with Pres. Clinton
1/1: "Iowa County Picks a President" Event with Pres. Clinton
1/1: "Poweshiek County Picks a President" Event with Pres. Clinton
1/1: "Marion County Picks a President" Event with Pres. Clinton
1/2: "Des Moines County Picks a President" Event with Pres. Clinton
1/2: "Dubuque County Picks a President" Event with Pres. Clinton
1/2: "Black Hawk County Picks a President" Event with Pres. Clinton
1/2: "Cerro Gordo County Picks a President" Event with Pres. Clinton
1/2: "Polk County Picks a President" Event with Hillary and Pres. Clinton
1/2: "Warren County Picks a President" Event with Hillary
1/2: "Linn County Picks a President" Event with Hillary
1/2: "Scott County Picks a President" Event with Hillary
1/2: "Wapello County Picks a President" Event with Hillary
She’ll be at 4 events today and 5 tomorrow. I seriously don’t know how she does it!
With just two days left for caucus-goers in Iowa to make up their minds, there’s still a lot of work to be done. And if anyone’s up to this challenge, it’s Hillary and her thousands of supports out there on the ground, making phone calls, knocking on doors and reaching out to people.
One voter at a time.
Comments are closed on this story.