Hillary to Win California by 6% - Gender Calculations

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Tuesday February 05, 2008 · 8:08 PM PST

2008/02/05 · 20:08

If you go to CNN.com, you'll find the extensive exit polls and the easiest way to tell what the heck is going on is to calculate the % of vote in 4 catagores:

Men for Obama
Women for Obama
Men for Clinton
Women for Clinton

So far, I've calculated a few states already in and many states to go. For every state already in, the simple math exercise matches the final results almost exactly. So now that California is closed and the exit poll just posted, lets see what's left to declare

First, how the math is done:

In MA:

Clinton Men: 0.42*0.48 = .2016
Clinton Women: 0.58*0.62 = .5612
Total: .5612 or 56.12%
Reality: 57%

Obama Men: 0.42*0.49 = .2058
Obama Women: 0.58*0.36 = .4146
Total: .4146 or 41.46%
Reality: 40%

So as you can see, it's a quick and dirty way to tally the final vote from the exits.

Now, just the straight up findings I calculated

Arizona: Obama - 47.66% ; Clinton - 47.2%

CT : Obama - 50.74% ; Clinton - 46.85%

Missouri : Hillary - 46.95% ; Obama - 45.45%

New Mexico : Obama : 49.64% ; Hillary : 43.48%

Utah : Obama : 58.6% ; Hillary - 39.54%

New Jersey : Hillary - 53.8% ; Obama - 43.2%

Illinois: Obama - 68.26% ; Hillary : 29.9%

CALIFORNIA : Hillary- 50.7% ; Obama - 44.4%

One thing I just noticed, in California, the Exit Poll shows anemic black turnout, pathetic actually.... a total of 6% only Black... so I'm not sure if this poll is accurate, though the rest have been based on gender.

From the looks of it, Hillary will slide by in Missouri and Win a close race in California by 6%. Obama made real gains among Latinos though... so he could spin it as a victory because she really was up 30 not long ago.

Does this mean she wins the night? I'm not sure at all because Obama ran the score up so high where he did win in Illinois, Kansas, Georgia, Alabama and Minnesota, it may be a pure draw by the end of the night.

If anyone wants to take a stab at delegate counts below, go for it.

PS: I'm an Obama Campaign Co-Owner but just trying to get a hold on the race here tonight.

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Hillary to Win California by 6% - Gender Calculations

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