Reality Check -- When did the Anbar Awakening Begin?

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Wednesday July 23, 2008 · 5:18 AM PDT

2008/07/23 · 05:18

Top of the Rec List right now is the bombshell that McCain made the following factually wrong statement to Katie Couric, and it edited it out of her interview:

Colonel McFarlane (phonetic) was contacted by one of the major Sunni sheiks. Because of the surge we were able to go out and protect that sheik and others. And it began the Anbar awakening.

There were a lot of statements of fact in that diary, but what I really needed was a readable timeline, so that I could understand the claim. I made one, which I give below.

This is a relevant timeline:

Jan 2006: Col. McFarland 1st Brigade, 1st Division, sent to Iraq, in Ninevah (not near Al-Anbar)
May 2006: Col. McFarland's brigade transferred to Ramadi (in Al-Anbar).
August 2006, beginning of "Anbar Awakening" according to this blogger cited in the previous diary. Twenty five of 31 Al Anbar tribes meet, decide to support Iraqi government.
Jan 10 2007: Bush's Surge begins, troop strength at 132,000.
Feb 2007: Col. McFarland's brigade leaves Iraq.
Mar 2007: Major surge deployment complete, troop strength at 152,000.
Sept 2007: Surge deployment complete, troop strength at 168,000.

One might be willing to dismiss McCain's attribution of the Anbar Awakening to the Surge as "well, it was an awakening in name only, and it really didn't take off until the Surge occurred." That's not supported. The wiki article on the Anbar Salvation Council is largely uncited. But, taking it at face value between the August 2006 founding of the Anbar Salvation Council and Jan 2007 -- the surge -- the following events occurred:

Aug 2006: Sheikh Sattar, representing the Anbar Salvation Council, approached the U.S. Army brigade commander at Camp Ramadi and explained that they wanted to align their forces with the U.S. Soldiers.
Aug-October 2006: Hundreds of Anbar tribes members join Iraqi police force, to create a Iraqi government police presence in Al Anbar.
Oct 2006: Anbar Province creates 3 emergency response battalions outside the Iraqi government lines, as they are dissatisfied with the pace of the build-up in Anbar.
Dec 2006: Iraqi national government accepts the 3 battalions as legitimate security forces.

So what McCain got wrong was that the Anbar Awakening was entirely in place and operating -- and not just in name only -- before the Surge even began in Jan 2007. The Surge was in no way responsible or related to the Anbar Awakening, nor did it begin the Anbar Awakening .

I needed to get that clear for myself, perhaps it is useful to others.

UPDATE 9:09a Wed Jul 23 Hat tip to kossack lao hong han who pointed out the following date:

Sept 13 2007. One week after Sheikh Sattar, founder of the Anbar Awakening, had a photo op with President Bush, he and two bodyguards were killed by a roadside bomb near his home. Which means that McCain's Claim:

Because of the surge we were able to go out and protect that sheik and others.

is wrong, too. The surge didn't even protect "that sheik".

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Reality Check -- When did the Anbar Awakening Begin?

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