The end! And just in time. GOTV!
Summary:
UT has 3 reps, 1 D, 2 R
VT has 1 rep, a D
VA has 11, 5 R and 6 D
WA has 9, 6 D, 3 R
WV has 3, 2 D 1 R
WI has 8, 6 D, 2 R
WY has 1, an R
Possibly vulnerable
UT-02 (D)
WA-02 (D)
WA-03 (D)
WV-03 (D)
VA-02 (D)
VA-05 (D)
VA-09 (D)
VA-11 (D)
WA-03 (D)
WA-08 (R)
WI-07 (D)
WI-08 (D)
WV-01 (D)
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from Wikipedia
VoteView (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State (other stuff there too).
and my previous diaries.
FEC
and Steve Singiser's diaries here on daily Kos (which I checked for about 3 weeks).
District: UT-01
Location Northwestern UT, including Ogden and part of Salt Lake City map
Cook PVI R + 21
Representative Rob Bishop (R)
VoteView 371
First elected 2002
2008 margin 65-30 over Morgan Brown
2006 margin 63-32
2004 margin 68-29
Obama margin 33-64
Bush margin 2004 75-25
Current opponents Stephen Thompson
Demographics 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), 8th most Republican (per Cook PVI)
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Neither has much COH
District: UT-02
Location Most of Salt Lake City, and all of southeastern UT map
Cook PVI R + 15
Representative Jim Matheson (D)
VoteView 224
First elected
2008 margin 63-35 over Bill Dew
2006 margin 59-37
2004 margin 55-43
Obama margin 40-58
Bush margin 2004 66-31
Current opponents Morgan Philpot
Demographics 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%)
Assessment Matheson has over $300 K COH, Philpot has $5-L
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating: Safe.
District: UT-03
Location Southwestern UT, including Orem and Provo map
Cook PVI R + 26
Representative Jason Chafetz (R)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 66-28 over Bennion Spencer
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 29-67
Bush margin 2004 77-21
Current opponents Karen Hyer
Demographics 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 7th most Republican district in the country
Assessment Safe for Republicans, Chafetz has $140K COH, Hyer has little
District: VT-01
Location Vermont map
Cook PVI D + 13
Representative Peter Welch (D)
VoteView 32.5
First elected 2006
2008 margin 84% against multiple minor parties
2006 margin 53-45
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 67-30
Bush margin 2004 39-59
Current opponents Don Beaudry
Demographics 13th most rural (61.8%), 4th most White (96.2%), 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)
Assessment Safe. Welch has over $1 million COH, Beaudry has little.
District: VA-01
Location Northeast VA, including Fredericksburg and most of the Chesapeake shoreline (on the western side) map
Cook PVI R + 7
Representative Robert Whitman (R)
VoteView 336
First elected 2007
2008 margin 57-42 over Bill Day
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 48-51
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Current opponents Krystal Ball (what a name!)
Demographics 13th most veterans (17.7%)
Assessment Ball has little COH, but a lot of debt, Whitman has about $500K. Safe for Republicans.
District: VA-02
Location Virginia Beach and the eastern side of the Chesapeake map
Cook PVI R + 5
Representative Glenn Nye (D)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 52-48 over Thelma Drake
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 50-48
Bush margin 2004 58-42
Current opponents Scott Rigel
Demographics 3rd most veterans (20.3%)
Assessment Nye ousted Drake; he has about $600 K COH, Rigel has about $1 million but is somewhat self-financed. A poll had Rigell up 42-41. A Republican poll had Rigell up 46-41.
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Tossup
District: VA-03
Location Richmond and Norfolk and more or less contiguous points in between map
Cook PVI D + 20
Representative Bobby Scott (D)
VoteView 98.5
First elected 1992
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin Unopposed
2004 margin 69-31
Obama margin 76-24
Bush margin 2004 33-66
Current opponents Chuck Smith
Demographics 53rd most veterans (15.5%), 59th fewest Whites (37.7%), 16th most Blacks (56%)
Assessment Safe. Scott has $100K COH, Smith has little.
District: VA-04
Location Southeastern VA map
Cook PVI R + 4
Representative Randy Forbes (R)
VoteView 339
First elected 2001
2008 margin 60-40 over Andrea Miller
2006 margin 76-23
2004 margin 64-35
Obama margin 50-49
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents Wynne Legrow
Demographics 34th most veterans (16.2%), 38th most Blacks (33.1%), 91st fewest Latinos (2.0%)
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Forbes has about $400K, Legrow has little.
District: VA-05
Location Central southern VA, north to Charlottesville map
Cook PVI R + 5
Representative Thomas Perrie;lo (D)
VoteView 353
First elected 2008
2008 margin 745 votes out of about 300,000 over Virgil Goode
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 48-51
Bush margin 2004 56-43
Current opponents Robert Hurt
Demographics 10th most rural (64.0%), 68th most Blacks (23.9%), 67th fewest Latinos (1.6%)
Assessment Perrie;lo ousted Goode, but Goode was nuts. Vulnerable. Periello has $700 K COH, Hurt has about $285K, but some debt. This is a Republican district, but now Periello is the incumbent and has a big money edge. A recent poll had Periello up 51-43, and a Democratic poll had Hurt up 47-46.
SSP rating: tossup
My rating: tossup
District: VA-06
Location Northwestern VA, bordering WV, including Roanoke map
Cook PVI R + 12
Representative Bob Goodlatte (R)
VoteView 344
First elected 1992
2008 margin 62-37 over Sam Rassoul
2006 margin 75% against minor parties
2004 margin Unopposed
Obama margin 42-57
Bush margin 2004 63-36
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment No opponent
District: VA-07
Location Richmond and points north and west map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Eric Cantor (R)
VoteView 409
First elected 2000
2008 margin 63-37 over Anita Hartke
2006 margin 64-34
2004 margin 75-24
Obama margin 46-53
Bush margin 2004 61-38
Current opponents Rick Waugh
Demographics 90th highest income (median = $51K), 90th fewest Latinos (2.0%)
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Cantor has $1.5 million COH, Waugh has little.
District: VA-08
Location DC suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 16
Representative James Moran (D)
VoteView 57.5
First elected 1990
2008 margin 68-30 over Mark Ellmonre
2006 margin 66-31
2004 margin 60-37
Obama margin 69-30
Bush margin 2004 35-64
Current opponents Patrick Murray
Demographics 68th highest income (median = $63K), 48th most nonBlack, nonLatino, nonWhites (mostly 9.5% Asians)
Assessment Safe. Moran has over half a million COH, Murray has $80K
District: VA-09
Location map
Cook PVI R + 11
Representative Rick Boucher (D)
VoteView 180
First elected 1982
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 59-39
2004 margin 59-39
Obama margin 40-59
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Current opponents Morgan Griffith
Demographics 7th most rural (65.9%), 24th lowest income (median = $30K), 27th most Whites (93.3%), 27th fewest Latinos (1.1%)
Assessment Boucher has over $1.2 million COH, Griffith about $250K. Although this is a Republican district, Boucher has won pretty easily, year after year. A recent poll had Griffith up 47-46, and an R poll had it tied at 44
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Tossup
District: VA-10
Location map
Cook PVI R + 2
Representative Frank Wolf (R)
VoteView 266
First elected 1980
2008 margin 59-39 over Judy Feder
2006 margin 57-41
2004 margin 64-36
Obama margin 53-46
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Current opponents Jeff Barnett
Demographics 10th highest income (median = $72K), 76th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (6.6% Asian, 1.9% multiracial),
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Wolf has about $500K COH, Barnett has about $65K
District: VA-11
Location map
Cook PVI D + 2
Representative Gerald Connolly (D)
VoteView 279
First elected 1994
2008 margin 55-35 over Keith Fimian
2006 margin 55-44
2004 margin 60-38
Obama margin 57-42
Bush margin 2004 50-49
Current opponents Fimian is running again
Demographics Highest income (median = $80K), 41st most veterans (15.9%), 40th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (10.9% Asian, 2.6% multiracial)
Assessment Connolly has $870 K COH; Fimian has about $1 million but lots of debt and some self financing. I don't see a 20 point pickup in 2 years for Fimian.
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Likely D
District: WA-01
Location North of Seattle on both sides of Puget Sound map
Cook PVI D + 9
Representative Jay Inslee (D)
VoteView 62.5
First elected 1998
2008 margin 68-32 over Larry Ishmael
2006 margin 68-32
2004 margin 66-34
Obama margin 62-36
Bush margin 2004 43-56
Current opponents James Watkins
Demographics 46th highest income (median = $59K), 67th fewest Blacks (1.8%), 53rd most nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlacks (7.9% Asian, 3.1% multiracial)
Assessment Safe. Inslee has $1.4 million COH, Watkins has little.
District: WA-02
Location Northwestern WA, but east of Strait of Georgia and Puget Sound; bordering Canada, including many islands in the strait and sound. map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative Rick Larsen (D)
VoteView 177
First elected 2000
2008 margin 62-38 over Rick Bart
2006 margin 64-36
2004 margin 64-34
Obama margin 56-42
Bush margin 2004 47-51
Current opponents John Koster
Demographics 32nd most veterans (16.3%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%)
Assessment Larsen has almost $670K COH, Koster about $70K. A poll had Larsen up 50-46
SSP Rating: Tossup
My rating: Lean D
District: WA-03
Location Southwestern WA, bordering OR and the Pacific map
Cook PVI Even
Representative Brian Baird (D) Retiring
VoteView 163
First elected 1998
2008 margin 64-36 over Michael Delavar
2006 margin 63-37
2004 margin 62-38
Obama margin 53-49
Bush margin 2004 50-48
Current opponents Democrat Denny Heck, Republican Jaime Herrera
Demographics 34th most veterans (16.2%), 42nd fewest Blacks (1.2%)
Assessment A swing district. Heck has $40K COH, partly self financed; Herrera has about $400K. A recent poll had Herrera up 50-46. An earlier R poll had Herrera up 51-38
SSP rating: Lean R
My rating: Tossup
District: WA-04
Location Central WA, bordering OR, including Yakima map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Doc Hastings (R)
VoteView 350
First elected 1994
2008 margin 63-37 over George Fearing
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin 63-37
Obama margin 40-58
Bush margin 2004 63-36
Current opponents Jay Clough
Demographics 27th fewest Blacks (0.8%), 67th most Latinos (26.4%)
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Hastings has about $130K COH, Clough has little.
District: WA-05
Location Eastern WA, bordering ID and OR, including Spokane and Walla Walla map
Cook PVI R + 7
Representative Cathy Rogers (R)
VoteView 330.5
First elected 2004
2008 margin 65-35 over Mark Mays
2006 margin 56-44
2004 margin 60-40
Obama margin 46-52
Bush margin 2004 57-41
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 34th most veterans (16.2%), 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%)
Assessment No opponent
District: WA-06
Location Northwestern WA, west of Puget Sound, bordering the Pacific and across the Strait of Juan de Fuca from Canada. map
Cook PVI D + 5
Representative Norman Dicks (D)
VoteView 166
First elected 1976
2008 margin 67-33 over Doug Cloud
2006 margin 71-29
2004 margin 69-31
Obama margin 57-41
Bush margin 2004 45-53
Current opponents Doug Cloud again.
Demographics 15th most veterans (19.8%)
Assessment Safe. Dicks has over $500K COH, Cloud has little.
District: WA-07
Location Seattle map
Cook PVI D + 31
Representative Jim McDermott (D)
VoteView 5
First elected
2008 margin 84-16 over Steve Beren
2006 margin 79-16
2004 margin 81-19
Obama margin 84-15
Bush margin 2004 19-79
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 88th fewest veterans (10.6%), 19th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (13.2% Asian, 3.9% multiracial)
Assessment No opponent.
District: WA-08
Location Eastern suburbs and exurbs of Seattle map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative David Reichert (R)
VoteView 248
First elected
2008 margin 52-48 over Darcy Burner
2006 margin 51-49
2004 margin 52-47
Obama margin 57-42
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Current opponents Suzan DelBene
Demographics 25th highest income (median = $64K), 78th fewest Blacks (2.0%), 54th most nonBlack, nonWhite, nonLatino (7.8% Asian)
Assessment Vulnerable; Reichert has about $600 K COH, DelBene about $200K. A poll had Reichert up 52-45
SSP rating: Lean R
My rating: Lean R
District: WA-09
Location Eastern shore of Puget Sound map
Cook PVI D + 9
Representative Adam Smith (D)
VoteView 183
First elected 1996
2008 margin 66-34 over James Postma
2006 margin 66-34
2004 margin 63-34
Obama margin 58-40
Bush margin 2004 46-53
Current opponents Dick Muri
Demographics 17th most veterans (17.2%), 37th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (7.1% Asian, 4.2% multiracial)
Assessment Smith has about $300K COH, Muri has little. A recent poll had Smith up 49-46
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating:
District: WV-01
Location Northern WV, bordering OH, PA, and MD map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Alan Mollohan (D) Lost primary
VoteView 171
First elected 1982
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 64-36
2004 margin 68-32
Obama margin 42-57
Bush margin 2004 58-42
Current opponents Democrat: Mike Oliverio Republican: David McKinley
Demographics 67th most rural (46.3%), 28th lowest income (median = $30K), 8th most White (95.8%), 64th fewest Blacks (1.7%), 7th fewest Latinos (0.7%)
Assessment Oliverio has about little COH, McKinley about $200K, but largely self-financed.
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Lean D
District: WV-02
Location A wiggly strip across central WV, from west to east; borders OH, WV, and MD map
Cook PVI R + 8
Representative Shelley Capito (R)
VoteView 261
First elected 2000
2008 margin 57-43 over Anne Barth
2006 margin 57-43
2004 margin 57-41
Obama margin 44-55
Bush margin 2004 57-42
Current opponents Virginia Graf
Demographics 34th most rural (53.8%), 68th lowest income (median = $33K), 27th most White (93.9%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%)
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Capito has about $700K COH, Graf has little.
District: WV-03
Location Southern WV, bordering KY and VA map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Nick Rahall (D)
VoteView 156.5
First elected 1976
2008 margin 67-33 over Marty Gearhart
2006 margin 69-31
2004 margin 65-35
Obama margin 42-56
Bush margin 2004 53-46
Current opponents Elliott Maynard
Demographics 4th most rural (61.6%), 3rd lowest income (median = $26K), 27th most White (93.9%), fewest Latinos (0.6%)
Assessment Safe. Rahall has $400 K COH, Maynard about $200K.
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating:
District: WI-01
Location Southeastern WI, bordering IL and Lake Michigan. map
Cook PVI R + 2
Representative Paul Ryan (R)
VoteView 400
First elected 1998
2008 margin 64-35 over Marge Krupp
2006 margin 63-37
2004 margin 65-33
Obama margin 51-47
Bush margin 2004 54-46
Current opponents Heckenlively
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Ryan has $2.8 million COH, Garin has little.
District: WI-02
Location Central southern WI, including Madison map
Cook PVI D + 15
Representative Tammy Baldwin (D)
VoteView 10
First elected 1998
2008 margin 69-31 over Peter Theron
2006 margin 63-37
2004 margin 63-37
Obama margin 69-40
Bush margin 2004 37-62
Current opponents Chad Lee
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Baldwin has almost $800K COH, Lee has little.
District: WI-03
Location Southwestern WI, bordering MN and IA, including Eau Claire map
Cook PVI D + 4
Representative Ron Kind (D)
VoteView 185
First elected 1996
2008 margin 63-35 over Paul Stark
2006 margin 65-35
2004 margin 56-43
Obama margin 58-41
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Current opponents Dan Kapanke
Demographics 23rd most rural (56.9%), 5th most White (96.1%), 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)
Assessment Safe. Kind has $350 K COH, Kapanke has little.
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating: Safe
District: WI-04
Location Milwaukee and some suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 22
Representative Gwen Moore (D)
VoteView 7
First elected 2004
2008 margin 89-11 over an independent
2006 margin 71-28
2004 margin 70-28
Obama margin 75-24
Bush margin 2004 30-70
Current opponents Dan Sebring
Demographics 67th lowest income (median = $33K), 92nd fewest Whites (50.4%), 39th most Blacks (33.0%)
Assessment Safe. Moore has $60K COH, Sebring has little.
District: WI-05
Location Northern suburbs of Milwaukee map
Cook PVI R + 12
Representative James Sensenbrenner (R)
VoteView 427
First elected 1978
2008 margin 80-20 over Robert Raymond
2006 margin 62-36
2004 margin 67-32
Obama margin 41-58
Bush margin 2004 64-36
Current opponents Todd Kolosso
Demographics 47th highest income (median = $58K), 24th most Whites (94%), 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%)
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Sensenbrenner has $400K COH, Kolosso has little.
District: WI-06
Location Central part of eastern WI, along Lake Michigan, including Sheboygan and Oshkosh map
Cook PVI R + 4
Representative Thomas Petri (R)
VoteView 390
First elected 1979
2008 margin 64-36 over Roger Kittelson
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 67-31
Obama margin 50-49
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents Joseph Kallas
Demographics 94th most rural (39.3%), 22nd most Whites (94.1%)
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Petri has $900 K, Kallas has little.
District: WI-07
Location Northwestern WI, bordering MN, MI and Lake Superior map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative David Obey (D) Retiring
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 56-42
Bush margin 2004 49-50
Current opponents Democrat: Julie Lassa, Republican: Sean Duffy
Demographics 21st most rural (58%), 14th most Whites (95.1%), fewest Blacks (0.3%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)
Assessment With Obey out, this district is vulnerable, still, it's a slightly D district. Lassa has about $130K COH, Duffy about $600K. A Republican poll had Duffy up 46-39
SSP rating: Lean R
My rating: Lean R
District: WI-08
Location Northeastern WI, bordering MI and Lake Michigan, including Green Bay map
Cook PVI R + 2
Representative Steve Kagen (D)
VoteView 155
First elected 2006
2008 margin 54-46 over John Gard
2006 margin 51-49
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 53-45
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Current opponents Reid Ribble
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Vulnerable. Kagen has $200K but a lot of debt, Ribble about $340K. A poll had Ribble up 45-44
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Tossup
District: WY-01
Location Wyoming map
Cook PVI R + 20
Representative Cynthia Lummis (R)
VoteView 352
First elected 53-43 over Gary Trauner
2008 margin 2008
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 33-65
Bush margin 2004 69-29
Current opponents David Wendt
Demographics 44th most veterans (15.8%), 74th most Whites (88.9%), 23rd fewest Blacks (0.7%)
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Lummis has about $300K COH, Wendt has little