September is almost upon us, and that means the electoral season is about to begin in earnest. The pollsters seem to be acknowledging that, judging from tonight's edition of the Wrap.
We have not one, but THREE Democratic internal polls (with good news, even!). We also have a pending lawsuit out of the Land of Lincoln, and the latest out of Alaska.
All that (and more!) in the Tuesday edition of the Wrap...
THE U.S. SENATE
AK-Sen: Absentees shrink the margin, at least slightly
Alaska election officials have started to count the absentee ballots in the much-watched GOP primary for the U.S. Senate, and Lisa Murkowski is narrowing the gap slightly, but probably not enough to move the needle. With 15,000 of those absentee and contested ballots having been tallied today, Murkowski has made up only roughly 200 votes.. The latest reports have Murkowski cutting the lead of GOP insurgent candidate Joe Miller down to 1469 votes. The Anchorage Daily News is keeping a running blog of the count, but as Joan noted earlier in the hour, Murkowski conceded defeat.
Meanwhile, the NRSC has released an internal poll showing Miller clinging to a solid, but not overpowering, lead over Democratic nominee Scott McAdams. The poll, from Basswood Research, gives Miller a double digit lead (52-36). The poll also polls the race for Alaska Governor, and finds incumbent Sean Parnell up by a 54-40 margin over Democrat Ethan Berkowitz.
NC-Sen: PPP has Burr leading by five, well under 50%
PPP, as they do monthly, polls their own backyard (the state of North Carolina), and finds a race with only a slight change since last month. Things look a little better for incumbent Republican Senator Richard Burr, who now leads by five over Democrat Elaine Marshall (43-38). 6% of voters are sticking with Libertarian Michael Beitler. In an interesting note from Tom Jensen. If Democrats were turning out in similar ratios to Republicans as occurred in 2008, Marshall might very well be leading. But the sample of likely voters culled by PPP went for McCain by nine points in 2008. The enthusiasm gap rears its ugly head yet again.
NY-Sen: Three likely GOP losers debate...electability?
With Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand's poll numbers improving with each passing month, electability seems to be a curious debate topic among the three Republicans vying to be her opponent. Yet that is precisely the case being made in the GOP primary, coming two weeks from today. David Malpass, who has trailed in recent primary polls, argues that the frontrunner (former Congressman Joe DioGuardi) is a six-time loser in New York politics, having lost twice to Democrat Nita Lowey and four times to Republican Sue Kelly.
PA-Sen: Ipsos polls bearish on Sestak, but with huge RV/LV split
The polling for Ipsos (who is polling on behalf of Reuters) has adopted a very predictable cadence. Among registered voters, the Pennsylvania Senate race is very competitive. Among likely voters? Not so much. Ipsos sees a ten-point race favoring Republican Patrick Toomey over Democrat Joe Sestak (47-37) among likely voters. With registered voters, however, that margin winnows down to three points (40-37).
The poll also looked at the Governor's race, and among likely voters find a huge lead (49-34) for Republican Tom Corbett over Democrat Dan Onorato. In fairness to Onorato, however, that same huge likely/registered voter gap may well exist, but Reuters did not in their article give the registered voter numbers for the gov's race.
THE U.S. HOUSE
AR-04: Democrats look to hold at least ONE Arkansas seat in 2010
Stop the presses--we actually have a poll for a House race in Arkansas showing a Democrat out in front. It comes from the 4th district, where fifth-term incumbent Democrat Mike Ross enjoys a double-digit edge over Republican Beth Anne Rankin (49-31). Green party candidate Joshua Drake is at 4%. Ross has easily won re-election in the past few terms, but some analysts (including Charlie Cook) had the district as potentially competitive.
FL-08: Grayson releases internal showing him up by double digits
Here is a race that could make an incredible statement about not having to run like a Republican in a swing district, if these numbers are legitimate. It is an internal poll, but one conducted by PPP, which also has a solid rep in public polling (and, more importantly, came the closest to hitting Florida on the screws in the primary). They have Democratic incumbent Alan Grayson leading Republican Daniel Webster by thirteen points (40-27). One caveat is that "other" candidates tallied 23% of the vote, which would be an amazingly high tally were that to hold into November.
LA-03: Downer limps into runoff as a substantial underdog
At one time, former Louisiana Speaker Hunt Downer was considered the frontrunner to flip Democrat Charlie Melancon's third district seat over to the GOP. Now, having barely limped into a runoff against Jeff Landry, Downer is in the position of prepping for an early October runoff as a distinct underdog to Landry. Notable, and interesting: Downer's downfall might have come when he no-showed at...wait for it...a Baton Rouge tea party gathering. That, coupled with Downer's fairly recent switch to the GOP from the Democrats, seems to have sealed his fate with the 2010-era GOP base voter.
MI-01/MI-07: Tea Party candidacies officially dead
Bad news for Democrats hoping for dual options for conservative voters--the Michigan Court of Appeals struck both Tea Party candidates from the ballot in the potentially competitive races in MI-01 (Open--Stupak) and MI-07 (Mark Schauer). The Court found a number of damaging issues (to name one--the MI-01 nominee was not registered to vote in Michigan) which led them to strike the ticket at-large.
NC-11: Dusty Shuler internal has him up double digits in Western NC
Good catch by Crisitunity at SSP: buried in a CQ Politics article about Heath Shuler taking to the air in the 11th district was a dusty (mid-July) poll showing Shuler well ahead of Republican Jeff Miller in the district. The poll, by Anzalone Liszt, gave Shuler a 51-34 lead over Miller. Shuler has held smaller edges in both a single public poll and a Miller internal poll earlier in the cycle.
VA-09: Boucher has wide lead over Griffith in internal poll
This internal poll needs a slightly smaller grain of salt, since a SurveyUSA poll during the mid-summer period also gave the incumbent a solid edge. But new numbers fron Benenson Strategies gives longtime Democratic incumbent Rick Boucher a sizeable lead over Republican Morgan Griffith (55-32). At one point, the combination of GOP-friendly territory (the 9th routinely goes GOP on the presidential level) and an above-average candidate in Griffith (a prominent state legislator) seemed to be a recipe for competitiveness in this climate. But polling has shown Boucher ahead comfortably, and the NRCC seems, for the moment, to be staying away from this race.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
AZ-Gov: Brewer trying to turn boycott issue into a political issue
Here is an interesting bit of political jujitsu from the Republican Governor of Arizona and other GOP candidates. Given the financial hit that the state has taken as a result of the passage of the SB 1070 Immigration law, Governor Jan Brewer is demanding that Democrats disavow any support from political entities that are advocating for a boycott of the state. This would include two politically prominent labor unions (SEIU and the UFCW). It is doubtful that Democrat Terry Goddard, the state Attorney General, will play along.
CO-Gov: GOP pollster gives Hickenlooper wide lead
The prolific GOP pollsters at Magellan are back with new numbers out of Colorado, and the numbers are surprisingly good (considering the source) for Democrat John Hickenlooper. The poll has Hickenlooper at 46%, with Republican Dan Maes at 27% and GOP-turned-Indie Tom Tancredo at 17%.
FL-Gov: Chiles rumored to be standing down...who benefits?
Potentially big political news out of the Sunshine State this afternoon. The state is abuzz with rumors that Independent gubernatorial candidate Bud Chiles is preparing to withdraw from the governors race. While Chiles was originally a Democrat, his status in the race seemed to be working to the benefit of Democrat Alex Sink, as it gave a destination for disenchanted Bill McCollum voters. Tom Jensen at PPP looks at the numbers, and can make an argument for this helping either candidate. His best guess? A wash.
IL-Gov: Constitution Party heads to court about ballot denial
Republican Bill Brady might not have knocked a potential spoiler out of the box just yet. About a week after the State Board of Elections disqualified the Constitution Party and candidate Randy Stufflebeam for insufficient signatures, the party is headed to court. The Republican Party had been instrumental in striking the Cons from the ballot, arguing hundreds of signatures were fraudulent.
MN-Gov: Surprising UM poll shows a dead heat, Indie grabbing 13%
The University of Minnesota is out with new numbers in the state's interesting and competitive gubernatorial race. Unlike most pollsters, which have shown Republican Tom Emmer fading badly, the UM poll shows a coin flip, with both Emmer and Democrat Mark Dayton at 34% of the vote. Meanwhile, Independent candidate Tom Horner is at 13%, one of his better polling showings in the cycle.
OK-Gov: Mary Fallin. Republican. Class Warrior
If Oklahoma was the wealthy suburbs of some large American city, this would still remain a stupefyingly idiotic comment. GOP gubernatorial candidate Mary Fallin was busy trying to hit all of the GOP high points during recent remarks at the Tulsa Republican Club. In so doing, she defended tax cuts for the rich by saying the following:
"I don't know about you, but I've never been offered a job by a poor person."
Leaving aside the basic moral outrage involved in such a ridiculous comment, isn't it an especially moronic comment from some one who has been employed for the past 20 years as an elected official, offered that job by the voters of Oklahoma?
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
The House of Ras is pretty quiet today, limiting their fire to three high-profile races (CO-Gov, OH-Sen, PA-Sen). Their numbers are pretty much in line with where they have been recently, although they seem a little better for Democrats than past Rasmussen performance might indicate in these three contests.
CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 36%, Dan Maes (R) 24%, Tom Tancredo (I) 14%
OH-Sen: Rob Portman (R) 44%, Lee Fisher (D) 39%
PA-Sen: Patrick Toomey (R) 45%, Joe Sestak (D) 39%