Yes, you read that headline right. As of right now, only 25 GOP-held seats lack Democratic candidates, and none of those seats are in Texas.
Over the last few months, I’ve been using the Politics1 website to keep track of which seats have Democratic candidates who’ve filed with the FEC. I’ve been posting updates in the comments of the Daily Kos Elections weekend open threads, but I’ve decided to start making blog posts instead.
Never before has the Democratic party seen such a big surge of enthusiasm for running for office, and it doesn’t seem to be stopping anytime soon. Two months ago, about 50 seats lacked a Democratic challenger—most of them very conservative seats, but some of them arguably were potential tossups. Now, there is only one potential in-play seat without a Democratic challenger (Wisconsin’s 7th, held by Sean Duffy).
In the last 3 weeks, 6 GOP-held seats have seen Democratic challengers step forward:
- Georgia’s 6th — No candidate had stepped forward until now, likely because of its recent special election. However, local TV news reporter Bobby Kaple has officially thrown his hat in the ring, and Jon Ossoff may run again.
- Nebraska’s 3rd — A “Paul Theobald” has filed with the FEC to run for this very conservative district. He's an intriguing person and candidate. Here is his bio, and here is an an opinion piece he wrote. He works at the Rural Schools Collaborative, so he has a lot of experience working in and with rural communities around education. However, as of right now, he does not have a website, or even a campaign announcement. So, I guess we'll have to wait and see how serious his candidacy becomes. But I like the idea of him running for this seat.
- New York’s 27th — Ethically challenged incumbent Chris Collins is a prolific Trump supporter, which caused many to believe he could become vulnerable in 2018. However, a previous challenger dropped out, leaving no Democratic challenger. Thankfully, two others have stepped up to the plate, including Sean Bunny, an Iraq-war veteran who seems to have serious backing.
- Tennessee’s 8th — This district was held by a Democrat as recently as 2010, but it’s gone far-right since then, partially due to shifting party allegiances, partially due to gerrymandering. However, a John Boatner has filed for the district. His website isn’t live yet, and there is minimal information about him. However, he appears to be a medical researcher and recent Democratic activist from the Memphis area.
- Texas’s 4th — Darrell Rodriguez was running for the very competitive 32nd district in Texas (48-46 Hillary), but last week switched to the adjacent 4th district (25-71 Trump). Bold move! He seems pretty committed to trying to fight an uphill battle in this crazy longshot district. He's filed as a candidate with the FEC, but he's provided no fundraising data...so, yeah. But at least now Texas has a Democrat running in every district! When's the last time that happened?
- Virginia’s 9th — Two Democrats have filed here, whereas 3 weeks ago there were none—a Anthony “Tony” Flaccavento (who was the nominee in 2012) and website-less Justin Santopietro.
With the addition of challengers to these six districts, we now have Democratic challengers for every seat in Nebraska, New York, Texas, and Virginia. This is soon off the heels of a very viable Rachel Reddick stepping up for Pennsylvania’s 8th district, which left no unchallenged GOP-held seat in that state. Only 18 states have any GOP-held seats without Democratic challengers.
Why care about the presence of Democratic challengers? Because a politician running unopposed and a politician running for reelection makes a major psychological difference. Incumbents without challengers are able to behave without worry and can freely transfer any money they race to the committees of other Republican candidates. Meanwhile, those incumbents with challengers—even in safe districts—end up feeling some need to be accountable to somebody, whether constituents or party-backers. And if a major wave starts to form in mid-2018, even the allegedly “safest” of incumbents could start to panic, blowing money on consultants and TV ads to reassure themselves of their reelection.
Thus, we still need Democratic individuals from 18 states to step up and run. To run for these seats, you actually don’t have to live in the district, only the state...although, ideally, people from these communities choose to run. If you are a Democratic activist in or around these districts, I strongly encourage you to begin recruiting a candidate! Anyone willing to go out on a limb and articulate progressive values will do just fine. And who knows—with the popularity of the Republican party declining dramatically over the last year, maybe that person will end up in Congress!
Here is a list of the remaining 25 seats—two of which have asterisks due to odd circumstances:
- Alabama: AL-01
- Georgia: GA-14
- Idaho: ID-02
- Indiana: IN-03**
- Kansas: KS-01
- Kentucky: KY-05
- Louisiana: LA-01, LA-04, LA-05, LA-06
- Michigan: MI-10
- Mississippi: MS-03
- Missouri: MO-03
- North Carolina: NC-03, NC-08
- Ohio: OH-06, OH-08
- Oklahoma: OK-01, OK-02*, OK-03
- South Carolina: SC-04
- Tennessee: TN-06
- Utah: UT-01
- Wisconsin: WI-07
- Wyoming: WY-AL
*OK-02 has a Democratic candidate who's publicly announced that he's running, Tahlequah Mayor Jason Nichols, but he has filed no paperwork with the FEC.
**IN-03 has a "Working Party" candidate, but they're not a Democrat, apparently? Someone should convince him to run as both, if Indiana allows that.
I’ll hopefully have another update in mid-December, then again on January 15th—after the next required filing deadline has occurred. Stay tuned, and until then, consider recruiting a friend to run for Congress!