Happy New Year! Continuing on from last year.
I had spent the second week of December “on the road” visiting the Western states where Hope Springs from Field PAC volunteers had canvassed this year. Arizona, Nevada, Montana, Wisconsin and finally Michigan, talking with volunteers and canvassers about their experience in 2023 and their expectations for 2024. At each stop, about the half of the time was devoted to listening to volunteers and the second half responding to their questions.
At every stop, i was asked (a lot) about Ohio and how we had won the Reproductive Freedom amendment to that state’s constitution. And while this was is relevant to our future in Montana, i was surprised at how many of our volunteers were aware that the Cook Political Report had changed Jon Tester’s race from leaning Democrat to toss-up in their Senate Race Ratings earlier that month. Other handicappers had rated Montana as a toss-up all along, but one of the Republicans running had made a big deal — and was getting some local television attention — from the change in the Cook Report.
The other thing that really stood out was volunteer disappointment with how many people would come out to knock on doors each week. “I really thought more people would come out, especially when I would tell them what we were doing at the doors.” We always expect to see exponential growth in volunteer turnout over the Summer, but that didn’t really occur in Montana. We topped out at 111 volunteers in two Saturdays in July, but there were several of the 15 dates we canvassed where rain was an issue at one or more of our turf areas.
As we walked through the numbers, i felt like people left less disappointed. Volunteers in Montana knocked on 78,935 doors in the Billings, Bozeman, Butte-Helena and Missoula areas. Still, we never got into Blaine, Hill or Roosevelt Counties, which had been a goal. And one of the most disappointing things from our 2023 experience in Montana was the minor number of Constituent Service Requests we collected there (156).
Regardless, we did have a nice response from the literature we distributed to those ~79,000 doors, a little over 18% of Montana households. And that was the number that stuck. While volunteers had felt that they hadn’t done “enough,” realizing we hit more than 18% of the doors in Montana felt more impressive. And Hope Springs from Field volunteers remembered the things voters said to them about the lit.
Even though our household targets were about 70% independent or unaffiliated voters in Montana, we still heard raves about the picture of Senator Tester in front of his barn. While Montana doesn’t register voters by political party, VAN still models voter behavior and inclinations. But Montanans know Tester as a working farmer, and more than a few voters noted that his Republican opponents are late-comers to the state (not that they would be alone in that). It doesn’t hurt that he’s the 4th most popular senator in the country among their voters.
At each of my 5 stops in Montana, i read a volunteer Observation Form that noted a new voter to the state appreciated the fact that they had knocked on their door. “It’s the kind of political activity I was used to in my old state.”
Volunteers in several stops said that voters they talked to weren’t really impressed with the fact that the Tester seat could decide which party controlled the Senate. In fact, this feedback reflected what we were seeing on the Issues Surveys we had collected. When we asked about what issue was most important in the country, Montana responses were much more varied and the Top 3 responses were less a consensus than just merely what won out that week. But when we asked voters what was was the Top Issue in Montana, responses were much more uniform. That being said, volunteers were constantly reminded that their local issues and concerns were not being reflected by Joe Biden or national Democratic priorities.
Still, “party strategists and political analysts see abortion, the economy, GOP candidate selection and Trump’s legal troubles as wild cards that could affect Republican chances and perhaps enable Democrats to hang onto their narrow Senate majority.” All four of these factors will influence the senate race in Montana even though local, decidedly Montanan issues will undoubtedly decide who wins.
In 2022, Montanan voters rejected the “Born Alive” referendum that threatened to punish health care providers involved in the birth process. That draconian measure was rejected by 52.5% and spurred Planned Parenthood to propose Ballot Issue #14, “a ballot measure that would affirm ‘the right to make and carry out decisions about one’s own pregnancy, including the right to abortion’ in the state constitution.”
Submitting the proposed initiative is just one step in a long process of putting the amendment before voters in 2024. The measure’s language must first be approved by the Montana Legislative Services Division and pass a legal review by Montana Attorney General Austin Knudsen.
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If Planned Parenthood’s constitutional amendment clears the first two procedural hurdles, supporters will have to collect signatures from 10% of the state’s electorate, including 10% of voters in each legislative House district.
60,359 valid signatures would have to be submitted by July 19 for the measure to appear on the 2024 ballot.
Unsurprisingly, this was a matter for discussion. There are 100 state House districts in Montana, 33 of which are held by Democrats. This is where access to the voter file is really vital. But the more our Hope Springs volunteers talked about this, the less they thought the process insurmountable. Yes We Can!
Winning both the U.S. Senate seat and a Reproductive Freedom Referendum means threading the needle in Montana. But the results in Kansas and Ohio have really given Montanans a roadmap for winning here. As in Kansas and Ohio, Hope Springs from Field brings experience and assets to this fight, including 368 volunteers who want to win both these fights.
But we need your help. Like everyone else, we are asking for financial support for these vital efforts. If you are like me, you are inundated with requests. We don’t have any cute pets, or special treats, to offer up to encourage your support. Nor will we try to guilt you by telling you the threat is real, ongoing and getting more sophisticated. We are all getting tired of the incessant fund-raising.
But if you are able to contribute to our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please do. We need your help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/fistfulofsteel
You can follow that link for our mailing address, as well (for those who would rather send us a check). Thank you for your support! This work depends on you!