Ukrainian actors conducted a drone strike against the Lukoil oil refinery in Volgograd Oblast on February 3.
Ukrainian outlet Suspilne and BBC Russia Service cited internal sources in the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) who claimed that the SBU conducted the strike.[33] A source in Kyiv told Reuters that Ukraine used two attack drones to execute the strike.[34] A fire resulting from the strike apparently spread up to 300 square meters at the Lukoil refinery, which Russian emergency services extinguished.[35] Lukoil’s Volgograd refinery is one of the largest in Russia and the largest in the Russian Southern Federal District.[36] Russian officials obliquely reported on the strike, claiming that “falling debris” from a drone strike that Russian air defense repelled fell on the refinery and caused the fire.[37]
Ukrainian strikes reportedly temporarily slowed Russia’s production of Lancet loitering munitions. Forbes, citing Ukraine-based OSINT group Molfar, reported on February 1 that a “well-targeted” Ukrainian strike may have hit the Zagorsk Optical-Mechanical Plant (ZOMZ) near Moscow in August 2023.[39] Forbes noted that Russian state media denied that explosions at ZOMZ were the result of a drone strike, despite eyewitness reports to the contrary. Ukrainian military analyst Dmytro Snehyrev assessed that ZOMZ may have been producing camera lenses or optical devices for ZALA Aerospace’s Lancet loitering munitions.[40] Forbes stated that following the August 2023 incident at ZOMZ, Lancet production was “slashed,” which is noteworthy because Lancets use several imported components that should in theory be unaffected by explosions at ZOMZ. The Forbes investigation concluded that Ukraine may have conducted the strike against ZOMZ, impacting the factory's ability to produce unique domestic components for Lancets, thereby leading to a temporary decrease in Lancet production, which is now on the rise again as of January 2024.
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- The Kremlin is doubling down on its support for Iran as the US conducts strikes to preempt attacks by Iranian-back proxies in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen against American and other targets.
- The Kremlin censored a protest by wives of mobilized soldiers in Moscow on February 3 likely to suppress any possible resurgence of a broader social movement in support of Russian soldiers and against the regime.
- Soviet leadership experienced first-hand the influence that social movements of relatives of Russian soldiers wielded in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and the Kremlin likely aims to preemptively censor and discredit similar movements before they can garner similar influence.
- Putin may have learned from the Soviet Union’s prior failure to completely censor soldiers’ relatives and changed tactics, instead using limited censorship and discreditation to keep these movements from building momentum.
- Russian milbloggers continued to fixate on a recent unsuccessful Russian mechanized assault near Novomykhailivka, Donetsk Oblast and highlight divisions it caused within the Russian information space, which are indicative of wider issues with the Russian military’s ability to adapt in Ukraine.
- Ukrainian actors conducted a drone strike against the Lukoil oil refinery in Volgograd Oblast on February 3.
- Ukrainian strikes reportedly temporarily slowed Russia’s production of Lancet loitering munitions.
- Russian state media confirmed the appointment of two new officials to senior positions in military-adjacent civilian organizations.
- Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances near Bakhmut amid continued positional engagements along the frontline.
- Russian soldiers imprisoned for refusing to fight in Ukraine are reportedly dying in Russian detention.
- Russian authorities continue efforts to militarize Ukrainian youth through the school system.
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Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)
Positional fighting continued along the Kupyansk-Kreminna line on February 3. Russian and Ukrainian sources stated that positional engagements continued northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka and Lake Lyman; southeast of Kupyansk near Ivanivka, Krokhmalne, Tabaivka, and Novoselivske; northwest of Kreminna near Terny and Nevske; west of Kreminna near Yampolivka; and southwest of Kreminna near the Serebryanske forest area.[47] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces are conducting an increased number of air strikes in the Kupyansk direction and claimed that Russian forces dropped over 10 FAB-1500 glide bombs on Ukrainian positions near Ivanivka and Kyslivka on February 2.[48] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Captain Ilya Yevlash stated on February 2 that Russian forces have almost halved their daily rate of artillery fire in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions due to poor weather conditions and other unspecified issues.[49] Elements of Chechen “Akhmat” Spetsnaz forces are reportedly operating near Bilohorivka, Luhansk Oblast (10km south of Kreminna).[50] Russian sources claimed on February 3 that Ukrainian forces conducted a HIMARS strike against a bakery in occupied Lysychansk, Luhansk Oblast.[51]
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Ukrainian forces recently marginally advanced southwest of Bakhmut. Geolocated footage published on February 3 shows elements of the 85th Separate Motorized Brigade (2nd Luhansk People’s Republic [LNR] Army Corps [AC]) striking Ukrainian forces operating in a forested area east of Klishchiivka (southwest of Bakhmut) that ISW previously assessed was under Russian control, suggesting that Ukrainian forces recently regained ground in this area.[52] A Russian source claimed that Russian forces advanced along an unspecified road in the direction of Ivanivske (west of Bakhmut) and captured new heights north and northwest of Klishchiivka, and that Ukrainian forces recaptured several positions north of Bohdanivka (northwest of Bakhmut).[53] ISW has not observed visual evidence to confirm these claims. Positional engagements continued near Bohdanivka and Klishchiivka, and in the Ivanivske direction.[54] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Captain Ilya Yevlash reported that the Russian military command is transferring reserves to the Bakhmut direction in an effort to break through Ukrainian defensive lines west of Bakhmut towards Chasiv Yar.[55] A Russian source claimed that elements of the Russian Cossack “Sibir” Brigade are operating near Soledar (northeast of Bakhmut).[56]
Russian sources claimed on February 2 and February 3 that Russian forces advanced north, south, and southwest of Avdiivka but ISW has not observed visual evidence of these purported gains…. Russian sources also claimed that Russian forces advanced east of the “Tsarska Okhota” restaurant (south of Avdiivka) and up to 600 meters near Stepove (northwest of Avdiivka).[58] Positional engagements continued near Stepove and in the gardening community north of Avdiivka; southwest of Avdiivka near Pervomaiske and Nevelske; and on Avdiivka’s southeastern outskirts.[59] Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov observed that the Russian grouping of forces around Avdiivka consists of six Russian brigades, seven regiments, and three special purpose and Spetsnaz units.[60] Butusov specified that elements of the following Russian brigades are fighting near Avdiivka: 1st “Slavic” Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st Donetsk People’s Republic's [DNR] AC); 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd Combined Arms Army [CAA], Central Military District [CMD]); 21st Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd CAA, CMD), 74th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (41st CAA, CMD); 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st DNR AC); and the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet). Butusov identified that elements of two Spetsnaz brigades and the 80th “Sparta” Separate Reconnaissance Battalion (1st DNR AC) are also operating in the Avdiivka area.
“I am no longer accepting the things I cannot change. I am changing the things I cannot accept.”