RU losses yesterday include 1160 dead, 51 APVs, 17 tanks, 53 other vehicles & 42 artillery systems.
Lithuanian intelligence assessed that Russia is preparing for confrontation with NATO in the long term while also waging its war in Ukraine. Lithuanian intelligence assessed that Russia has allocated substantial resources to the war in Ukraine but maintains the means to prepare for a long-term confrontation with NATO in the Baltic Sea region.[4] Lithuanian intelligence stated that Russia has deployed forces and assets from its western border areas to Ukraine and has thus had to increasingly rely on air and naval capabilities for security and deterrence purposes on NATO’s eastern flank. Lithuanian intelligence reported that Russia deployed Kalibr missile carrier ships on combat duty in Lake Ladoga near St. Petersburg for the first time in 2023, likely in response to Finland’s accession to NATO, and increased the number of Tu-22M3 heavy bomber flights over the Baltic Sea from none in 2022 to five in 2023. The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (VLA) also recently assessed that the Russian military is forming the Leningrad Military District (LMD) and Moscow Military District (MMD) in part to posture against Finland and NATO.[5]
Russian military thinkers are openly discussing how Russia can go to war against NATO in the near future. Russian General Staff Military Academy Head Colonel Vladimir Zarudnitsky claimed in a recent article in the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) journal Military Thought that the war in Ukraine could escalate into a large-scale war in Europe and that the end of hostilities in Ukraine will not lead to the end of confrontation between the West and Russia.[6]
www.understandingwar.org/...
- Lithuanian intelligence assessed that Russia has the capability to continue sustaining the current tempo of its war in Ukraine and will likely have the capability to gradually expand its military capabilities in the near term.
- Lithuanian intelligence also assessed that Russia is unlikely to abandon its long-term objectives of subjugating Ukraine even if Russian fails to achieve these objectives through military means.
- Lithuanian intelligence assessed that Russia is preparing for confrontation with NATO in the long term while also waging its war in Ukraine.
- Sweden formally joined NATO on March 7, becoming the 32nd member of the alliance.
- The governor of the pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region Gagauzia, Yevgenia Gutsul, met with Russian Presidential Administration Deputy Head Sergei Kiriyenko in Russia on March 7 as Moldovan authorities announced that a criminal case against Gutsul will soon go to court.
- Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reiterated Chinese calls for peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on March 7; Russia will likely continue to use such calls to promote long-standing information operations aimed at prompting Western concessions.
- The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) announced on March 7 that it neutralized an Islamic State (IS) terrorist cell that had been preparing an attack on synagogues in Moscow.
- Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kupyansk and Donetsk City amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on March 7.
- Russian intelligence services likely continue to source and operate sanctioned precision machine tools and dual-use components to produce Russian military equipment.
In 2002-2006, Ukraine has destroyed over 30 Tu-22M strategic bombers, 19 Tu-160 strategic bombers (a Soviet version of B-2), and 225 cruise missiles X-22 for them - the biggest fleet worldwide, more than the US or Russia. The US has pushed Ukraine to destroy them all and paid $8m
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)
Russian forces recently marginally advanced northeast of Kupyansk amid continued positional fighting on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on March 7. Geolocated footage published on March 7 shows that Russian forces recently marginally advanced in the northern outskirts of Synkivka (northeast of Kupyansk).[26] Positional fighting continued southeast of Kupyansk near Tabaivka; west of Kreminna near Terny and Yampolivka; and south of Kreminna near Bilohorivka.[27] Elements of the Russian 123rd Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd Luhansk People's Republic [LNR] Army Corps [AC]) continue operating in the Bilohorivka area.[28]
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Positional fighting continued in the Bakhmut area on March 7. Ukrainian sources stated that Ukrainian forces advanced near Bohdanivka (northwest of Bakhmut), although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of recent Ukrainian advances in the area.[29] Positional fighting continued west of Bakhmut near Ivanivske; southwest of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka and Andriivka; and south of Bakhmut near Pivdenne and Niu York.[30] Elements of the Russian 106th Airborne (VDV) Division are reportedly operating near Soledar (northeast of Bakhmut).[31]
Positional fighting continued in the Avdiivka area on March 7. ...Positional fighting continued northwest of Avdiivka near Stepove and Berdychi; west of Avdiivka near Tonenke and Orlivka; and southwest of Avdiivka near Pervomaiske and Nevelske.[33] Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Dmytro Lykhovyi stated that Russian forces are particularly focusing their offensive operations in the direction of Tonenke.[34] Elements of the Russian 25th and 30th motorized rifle brigades (both of the 2nd Combined Arms Army [CAA], Central Military District [CMD]) are reportedly operating near Stepove and Berdychi, elements of the 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st Donetsk People’s Republic [DNR] Army Corps [AC]) and the 55th Motorized Rifle Brigade (41st CAA, CMD) are reportedly operating near Tonenke, and elements of the 1st Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st DNR AC) and 35th Motorized Rifle Brigade (41st CAA, CMD) are reportedly operating between Tonenke and Vodyane (southwest of Avdiivka).[35]
Russian forces recently advanced west and southwest of Donetsk City amid continued positional fighting in the area on March 7. Geolocated footage published on March 6 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in southern Heorhiivka (west of Donetsk City) and in southwestern Novomykhailivka (southwest of Donetsk City).[36] ...The Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Press Service published footage on March 7 of Ukrainian forces repelling mechanized assaults near Novomykhailivka on March 6 and reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed 12 Russian armored vehicles in the area.[38] Positional fighting continued west of Donetsk City near Pobieda and Krasnohorivka on March 7.[39] Elements of the Russian 20th Motorized Rifle Division (8th CAA, SMD) and 39th Motorized Rifle Brigade (68th AC, Eastern Military District [EMD]) are reportedly operating near Novomykhailivka, and elements of the 163rd Tank Regiment (150th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th CAA, SMD), the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (8th CAA, SMD), and the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet) are reportedly operating southwest of Donetsk City along the Slavne-Novomykhailivka and Solodke-Vodyane lines.[40]
Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)
Positional engagements continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast on March 7, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in this area. Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that positional engagements continued near Robotyne and Verbove (east of Robotyne).[43] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces advanced up to one kilometer near Verbove, but ISW has not observed visual confirmation of this claim.[44]... Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Dmytro Lykhovyi stated that Russian forces have increased their use of all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) to transport infantry, especially over minefields, in the Zaporizhia direction.[46] Elements of the Russian 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (19th Motorized Rifle Division, 58th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) and elements of the 291st Motorized Rifle Regiment (42nd Motorized Rifle Division, 58th CAA, SMD) are reportedly operating in the Zaporizhia direction; elements of the 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment (42nd Motorized Rifle Division, 58th CAA, SMD) are reportedly operating near Robotyne; and elements of the 247th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division) are reportedly operating near Verbove.[47]