So, why does everyone seem to think it's a no-brainer that the terrorist attacks in Spain were the primary cause of the opposition Socialist Party victory there?
Errant reporting about a "comfortable" lead for the Popular Party before the attacks.
This was and still is misleading, since in the weeks prior the PP indeed did have a comfortable lead, but with momentum clearly on the side of the opposition Socialist Party, resulting in a statistical dead-heat in polling on the morning of the attacks.
This is serious momentum, and the failure to report this momentum, along with the fact that the parties were essentially tied, contributes to oversignifying the terrorist attack effects in terms of determining who won the election, and also sets up subsequent thought, no matter how rational or logical, to be unsound, since built on false assumptions.
Put simply, the media has set up a giant straw man.
Indeed, if it wasn't so close at the time of the attacks, one would wonder why the Aznar government would risk disreputability and possible criminal sanction by misleading the public about the investigation, and using the state-run media to do so.
Let's review.
The opposition Socialist Party had pulled even by the morning of the terrorist attacks. This had happened in a short period, so there was signifigant momentum on the side of the opposition.
One would guess that the opposition message and platform, as the election became closer and more real to people, and as more people paid attention, was the reason for this. What else would explain their resurgence?
From this momentum alone, with several days still to go, one has to wonder if the opposition would have won this election, though in a much tighter race.
We'll never know because, that morning, the attacks happened. This event alone would likely contribute to increased turnout at some level, since the Spanish people responded by gathering together in the streets, and one would assume that in such an environment civic participation would be more salient and tangible, and people would be talking about the upcoming election, making it much harder to simply ignore it or one's role in it.
But why the big victory for the opposition?
The exposure of the PP and Aznar government in the days following, in that they had been deceptive about the investigation and suspects, and were using the state-run media to push this, ensured that at a time when the Spanish people were huddling together, in grief and solidarity, they couldn't help but notice the arrogance and cynicism of their leaders, who were manipulating and lying to them.
So, you have a tight election, the momentum with the opposition, the attacks, the likely greater turnout because of the attacks, and the response to the attacks, with the villain being the party in power, and the champion of the people and truth in the opposition (at least in regards to what the government was hiding about its investigation), leading to a runaway victory and mandate.
The result was predictable, though not to anyone on the morning of the attacks, especially its perpetrators.
Something tells me that the terrorists weren't counting on strengthening democracy.
But, looking back, that's exactly what happened.
The hearts and minds of Spain stood united.
A win for democracy, a defeat for terror.