In the words that follow, you will find analysis on a couple of new polls (including one with...gasp...good news for a swing-region Democrat), as well as more headlines in a campaign cycle that seems to grow busier by the day. Quiet days seem less likely to found as we head into the Tuesday edition of the Wrap...
MA-Gov: Patrick Maintains Perilous Lead, According to PPP
The general trend in the data coming out of the Bay State in recent months has been flagging job approval numbers for Democratic Governor Deval Patrick, tempered a bit by the fact that he maintains a lead in a three-candidate field. PPP confirms the trend, but has Patrick in a much more tenuous position than other pollsters. When matched with GOP health care executive Charlie Baker, PPP finds Patrick win just a two point lead (29-27), with Democrat-turned-Independent Tim Cahill trailing with 21% of the vote. Against 2006 Indie candidate Christy Mihos, Patrick only does marginally better. He leads Cahill by three points (28-25), with Mihos bringing up the rear at 21%. PPP finds the job approval rating for Patrick to be truly circling the drain (22/59), which is far lower than the job approval numbers posted by the Boston Globe poll yesterday.
NC-08: One Dem Incumbent Is In Decent Shape, According to PPP
PPP takes a break from statewide polls to do a little House polling in their own backyard. Unlike recent House polls, which have shown Democrats in perilous positions in red-to-purple districts from South Dakota to Arkansas, PPP finds the Democratic incumbent in NC-08, Larry Kissell, in strong position for re-election. Kissell has a respectable job approval split of 55/40, and has leads over his Republican opponents ranging from 14 to 18 points. Kissell's district moved fairly sharply to the Democrats in 2008 (when it was carried by Barack Obama). Obama has a middling 47/50 job approval in the district, while Congressional Democrats fare worse.
IN OTHER NEWS....
- CA-Sen/CA-Gov: It has been rumored for weeks, but now it appears to be a fait accompli: former Congressman and "moderate" Republican Tom Campbell is going to leap from the California Gubernatorial election to a Senate bid. Apparently, Campbell thinks that Carly Fiorina is an easier mark than Meg Whitman in a primary election. Campbell also had to struggle with a self-funder in the gubernatorial primary, as state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner was already committing to self-funding his bid to the tune of eight figures.
- IA-Gov: In a sign that his path through the Republican Primary in the Hawkeye State will be far from a coronation, former GOP Governor Terry Branstad was rebuffed by the Iowa Family PAC, which swings with some serious weight among Iowa conservatives. The PAC decided today to endorse right-wing insurgent candidate Bob Vander Platts. What's worse for Branstad, the group of influential social conservatives flatly proclaimed that they will sit out the general election if Branstad is the nominee.
- CT-Gov: This one is a pure head-scratcher. Connecticut's Democratic Secretary of State, Susan Bysiewicz, had established herself as the front runner for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, and polls released last week made her a clear front runner for the general election, as well. So, it is going to catch some people off guard that she is apparently going to announce tomorrow that she is abandoning her gubernatorial campaign. She will instead choose to run for Attorney General. This leaves 2006 Senate nominee Ned Lamont (who raised an underwhelming $77,000 in the final quarter of '09) and former Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy as the most recognizable names remaining in the race.
- AL-02: In news that should be at least somewhat reassuring to House Democrats, Congressman Bobby Bright reiterated today that he is not intending to switch parties. Interestingly, he said that he has not talked to Parker Griffith since Griffith's defection to the Republican Party during the week before Christmas.
- AR-01: In what could be construed as a positive sign for Democrats, one of the longtime incumbents considered most likely to retire at the end of this term seems to have fundraised like a candidate. Marion Berry, who has represented the 1st district in northeastern Arkansas since 1996, raised six figures in the final quarter of 2009. Berry represents a purple-to-red district that would be a challenging hold for Democrats were he to leave it open.
- SC-01: The Republican primary to fill the open seat being abandoned by the retiring GOP Congressman Henry Brown is going to now have two marquee Palmetto State pedigrees in the field. "Tumpy" Campbell, the son of the late Governor Carroll Campbell, is already making a bid. He will now apparently be joined by Paul Thurmond, the thirty-something son of former Governor and Senator Strom Thurmond (yes, for those doing the math: Thurmond was in his early 70s when his youngest offspring was born). 2008 nominee Linda Kentner is still the leading name contemplating a bid on the Democratic side.
- VA-09: It sure seemed like longtime Democratic incumbent Rick Boucher was out of the woods last week when GOP state legislator Terry Kilgore decided not to challenge the fourteen-term incumbent in 2010. Well, another name from the deep GOP legislative bench in Virginia seems to be contemplating a challenge. Morgan Griffith, who is the Majority Leader in the House of Delegates, told the Roanoke Times that he is flirting with a Congressional bid. Griffith actually lives in the neighboring 6th district, but is close to the district boundary--in a Palin-esque rhetorical device, he told the reporter that he could see the 9th district by looking out his window.
- VA-11: The field to face freshman Democratic Congressman Gerry Connolly is about to get more crowded. Despite the presence of self-funding 2008 nominee Keith Fimian in the GOP field, Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herring is going to announce that he will run for Congress tomorrow. Herring narrowly lost a bid for County Chairman in early 2009, and enjoys pretty wide name recognition from that bid. Connolly defeated Fimian by twelve points (55-43) in 2008 in a district that has moved steadily towards the Democrats over the last few cycles.
- VA-SD 37: Democrats, who at this point are pretty starved for good electoral news, got some from the Commonwealth of Virginia tonight. In a special election to fill the State Senate seat of Ken Cuccinelli (who was elected Attorney General in November), the Democrats scored a pickup, with state delegate Dave Marsden scoring a 51-49 victory over Republican Steve Hunt tonight. This gives Democrats a 22-18 majority in the State Senate, which could prove critical during what promises to be a contentious bout of redistricting in 2011-2012.