Quite a bit of data for a three-day holiday weekend, and most of it isn't pleasing to the eye of those rooting for the Democrats. SurveyUSA is extremely bearish on the Dems out West, and the numbers out of Illinois from the Chicago Tribune aren't much better.
We also have some primary numbers out of New Hampshire, which is less than two weeks from heading to the polls.
All that (and more!) in the weekend edition of the Wrap...
THE U.S. SENATE
CA-Sen: SUSA shows Boxer trailing to Fiorina in Golden State
Even traditionally blue California is thinking about seeing other people, according to a new poll out at the close of the week from SurveyUSA. The poll puts Republican Carly Fiorina at 48%, with Democrat Barbara Boxer at 46%. One of the things causing pain for Boxer--she is only getting 79% of Democrats, while Fiorina has much better cohesion (91% of GOP) on her side.
DE-Sen: Tea Party Express gunning hard for Castle in primary
On the Wrap a while back, I observed that the impact of the Tea Party Express in Delaware (where they are supporting longshot Christine O'Donnell over GOP frontrunner Mike Castle) might be muted by the short timespan running up the primary there on September 14th. Well, if nothing else, the teabagger contingent is going all-in in the brief time that they have. The Express is planning a total of five ads between now and the 14th. Castle, for his part, is also running almost $200K worth of ads in advance of the primary, trying to prevent being Vic Rawl'ed.
IL-Sen: Tribune poll has key Senate campaign all knotted up
It is dead even between Democrat Alexi Giannoulias and Republican Mark Kirk, according to a poll released at the end of the week by the Chicago Tribune. Both Giannoulias and Kirk are sitting on just 34% of the vote, with third-party candidates LeAlan Jones (6%) and Mike Labno (3%) well behind. In a sign of how fluid the electorate is in the Land of Lincoln, nearly a quarter of voters in this high-profile race are still undecided.
NH-Sen: Ayotte leading primary, but not locking it down
According to new polling numbers from GOP pollsters Magellan Research, GOP frontrunner Kelly Ayotte is not running away with the Republican Primary to replace Judd Gregg in the Granite State. The survey has Ayotte at 34%, with Ovide Lamontagne (21%), Bill Binnie (17%), and Jim Bender (13%) chasing her. Ayotte's saving grace may well be that all three of her suitors have remained viable, meaning that any anti-frontrunner vote may be too divided to cost her the lead.
THE U.S. HOUSE
AK-AL: Young holds solid double-digit edge in PPP poll
In addition to being among the first pollsters to hit the McAdams-Miller Senate race, the team at PPP also polled the lightly-surveyed House race between longtime veteran Republican Don Young and Democratic challenger Harry Crawford. PPP sees it as a double-digit lead for Young (55-36). Crawford, a state legislator, was considered a potentially strong recruit for the Democrats, but has struggled to raise cash.
KY-03: Yarmuth up only within the margin, according to SUSA
Only a month or so after a Braun Research poll implied that John Yarmuth was sitting on a very comfortable lead over Todd Lally in the blue-leaning Kentucky 3rd district, SurveyUSA begs to differ. SUSA stakes Yarmuth to just a two point lead (47-45) over Lally.
NH-01: One time GOP frontrunner now trails free-spending challenger
The Republican primary to take on Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter promises to be a hot one, and a new poll out at the close of the week by Cross Target implies that the one-time NRCC star recruit, former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta, is now trailing a free-spending challenger in the race. The poll (sponsored by the GOP friendly Americans for Prosperity) has self-funder Sean Mahoney at 32% of the vote, with Guinta at 26% of the vote. Rich Ashooh runs third, but well behind the leaders at 10%.
PA-07: GOP winning streak ends as teabagger allowed on ballot
One of the more underreported stories of the 2010 cycle has been the ability of the Republicans to successfully challenge and exclude third-party conservative candidates from ballots all around the country. One place where their efforts proved unsuccessful is in the Pennsylvania 7th, where GOP nominee Pat Meehan will have to contend with teabagger Independent candidate Jim Schneller on the ballot. Meehan's challenge to Schneller's candidacy was denied late in the week by a Commonwealth Court judge. Meehan's camp had argued that the petitions for the third-party candidate came with undue assistance from Democrats.
VA-09: SUSA poll says Boucher still leads, but by a reduced margin
SurveyUSA has some good news for a Democratic candidate. Well...kind of. The newest SUSA poll out of southwestern Virginia gives longtime Democratic Rep. Rick Boucher a double-digit lead over Republican contender Morgan Griffith. If there is any bad news there, it is that the SUSA lead is incrementally smaller than one earlier in the summer. The current lead for Boucher is ten points (50-40).
WA-02: SUSA poll shows incumbent Dem trailing by four
The reasonably close numbers in the Washington 2nd district during the open primary last month has raised GOP hopes of an upset. This new poll from SurveyUSA should bolster those hopes. SUSA has Republican contender John Koster up four on incumbent Democrat Rick Larsen (50-46). The combined Dem total outstripped the GOP total by 53-47 in the late August primary, though Koster narrowly outpolled Larsen individually.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
AK-Gov: PPP gives Parnell a wide lead over Berkowitz
Defying the traditional conventions of PPP as a "Democratic" pollster, they poll Alaska, and have incumbent Republican Governor Sean Parnell doing markedly better against Democratic Ethan Berkowitz than any other pollster (including the House of Ras). PPP has Parnell at 55%, with Berkowitz sitting at 37% of the vote. Unlike many incumbent Governors in both parties, Parnell actually has decent approval ratings (50/36), far better than a certain ex-Governor (Mrs. Palin is sitting at 37/55).
CA-Gov: Whitman up seven, according to new SUSA poll
The folks at SurveyUSA also polled the governor's race, and they echo some other recent polling in showing Meg Whitman opening up a little daylight between her and Democrat Jerry Brown. SUSA puts Whitman at a seven-point edge (47-40) over Brown. While the partisan demographics look legit, there were a couple of eye-openers under the hood: for example, the Democrats are truly dead meat if Meg Whitman is really drawing 32% of the African American vote (pretty small subsample there, though).
IL-Gov: Brady leads by five, according to a new Trib poll
Incumbent Democrat Pat Quinn is not politically dead yet, but it is a sign of general campaign ugliness when one can say that it is progress that the incumbent is down by only five points. The new Chicago Tribune poll puts Republican Bill Brady at 37%, with Quinn at 32% of the vote. Three Independent candidates split 8% of the vote, with a quarter of the vote still waiting to be claimed.
RI-Gov: Chafee grabs another union endorsement in Little Rhody
This is becoming something of a trend, and one has to wonder if the Democratic standard-bearer, Frank Caprio, needs to be a bit concerned about it. Carpenters Local 94, repping over two thousand workers and retirees in-state, endorsed Democrats for November almost exclusively. One key exception: the Governor's race. Former Republican Lincoln Chafee, now running as an Independent, got the nod from the local, less than two weeks after the National Education Association did the same. The other major teachers union in the state, the Rhode Island Federation of Teachers and Health Professionals, backed Chafee in July.
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
The House of Ras was more prolific to close the week than they have been in a while. Nevada is more than a little ugly, but if there is one Democrat team Ras-sie is feeling right now, it is rookie Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, who is laying waste to the GOP triumvirate in New York.
ID-Gov: Gov. Butch Otter (R) 52%, Keith Allred (R) 36%
MA-Gov: Gov. Deval Patrick (D) 39%, Charlie Baker (R) 34%, Tim Cahill (I) 18%
NV-Gov: Brian Sandoval (R) 58%, Rory Reid (D) 33%
NV-Sen: Sen. Harry Reid (D) 45%, Sharron Angle (R) 45%
NY-Sen: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 51%, Bruce Blakeman (R) 32%
NY-Sen: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 51%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 31%
NY-Sen: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 53%, David Malpass (R) 27%