Leading Off:
● CA-Sen: Over the weekend, the California Democratic Party held its convention and voted to endorse state Attorney General Kamala Harris over Rep. Loretta Sanchez. Winning the state party endorsement isn't the same thing as winning the Democratic nomination, but it is important. Candidates who receive formal endorsements have their names included on the party's official sample ballot that gets distributed to voters. That won't make too much of a difference in a high-profile Senate race where both candidates will be airing ads (it matters much more in House races, where the candidates aren't nearly as well-known), but the convention's decision to pick Harris over Sanchez shows which way California's Democratic activists are leaning.
To earn the endorsement, a candidate needs to win at least 60 percent of the convention delegates. That's a high bar to clear, so it's pretty rare for the California Democratic Party to endorse in competitive statewide races. However, Harris took 78 percent of the delegates, a pretty remarkable showing indeed. Sanchez has been a member of the conservative Blue Dog Coalition for years, and she hasn't done a particularly good job appealing to liberals since she launched her campaign. In May, Sanchez mocked Native Americans when she tried imitating a war whoop, and she's repeatedly insisted that as many as 20 percent of Muslims "have a desire for a caliphate" and "are willing to use and they do use terrorism" to achieve those ends. Sanchez would have had a difficult time denying Harris the endorsement in any case, but these incidents certainly didn't help her case.
National Democrats have also signaled that that they prefer Harris to Sanchez; while there are a number of California races where local activists have clashed with the national party, this isn't one of them. Harris was already the frontrunner against Sanchez in the June top-two primary, while Sanchez is trying to secure the second place spot that would send her to the general election. California is a very blue state so Harris would easily prefer to face a Republican instead of a fellow Democrat like Sanchez in November; with what's left of the state GOP establishment choosing Duf Sundheim over Tom Del Beccaro, she may get her wish.
Senate:
● LA-Sen: On Friday, Family Research Council head Tony Perkins endorsed Rep. John Fleming, one of the many Republicans seeking this open Senate seat. The group rarely spends in congressional races, but their support is a good seal-of-approval for Fleming. The congressman needs to perform well in heavily evangelical North Louisiana in the November jungle primary, and Perkins, a former Louisiana state representative who took fourth place in the 2002 Senate race, still has some pull in the area.
● NH-Sen: Republican incumbent Kelly Ayotte is out with her first TV spot of the cycle and unsurprisingly, she starts positive. The ad stars Ayotte's young daughter, who praises her as a good mom and mentions Ayotte's work as state attorney general, before noting that now Ayotte "makes laws that help people, especially when they need it most." The commercial is airing for $300,000 over ten days.
● OH-Sen: P.G Sittenfeld's allied super PAC has been running ads for the last month boosting him and bashing Democratic primary frontrunner Ted Strickland, and now Sittenfeld himself is taking to the airwaves two weeks ahead of the primary. Sittenfeld's commercial starts with a clip of President Obama calling for better gun laws and noting that voters are "disappointed in leaders who stand in their way, to remember come election time." Sittenfeld then appears and calls for "leaders with the courage to stand up to the NRA," and he promises to fight for gun safety in the Senate. Sittenfeld only briefly mentions Strickland by saying that "Ted Strickland will never stand up to the NRA – I will."
Gubernatorial:
● VT-Gov: On Monday, EMILY's List endorsed ex-state Secretary of Transportation Sue Minter. Unlike next-door New Hampshire, Vermont is a relatively cheap state to advertise in (most of the state is in the Burlington media market, while New Hampshire politicians need to purchase ad time on expensive Boston TV), so any EMILY spending could go a long way here. Minter currently faces ex-state Sen. Matt Dunne in the August Democratic primary, and a recent poll found that most voters are undecided. State House Speaker Shap Smith is considering jumping back into the race, and ex-state Sen. Peter Galbraith is still flirting with a bid.
House:
● AZ-01: Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu and Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio both love to talk about border security (and both Babeu and Arpaio have ugly histories), so you might think that they'd be natural allies. Nope: Arpaio has endorsed state House Speaker David Gowan, who faces Babeu and several other Republicans in the August primary for this competitive seat. Almost none of this seat is in Maricopa, but Arpaio is a popular figure with Republicans across the state.
● AZ-05: While there are a ton of local Republicans considering running to succeed retiring Rep. Matt Salmon, ex-state House Speaker and 2012 candidate Kirk Adams and Maricopa County Supervisor Steve Chucri both took their names out of contention on Monday. State Senate President Andy Biggs currently has the GOP primary to himself, and he has Salmon's support.
● NY-01: Former Rep. Tim Bishop, who held New York's 1st Congressional District for over a decade before losing to Republican Lee Zeldin in the 2014 GOP wave, has now weighed in on which Democrat he'd like to see reclaim the seat: former Southampton Town Supervisor Anna Throne-Holst. Previously, Throne-Holst earned endorsements from the other two Democrats whose districts also primarily include Long Island, Steve Israel and Kathleen Rice. Throne-Holst's primary opponent, venture capitalist Dave Calone, has generally had more success winning the support of local Democrats, though notably, the DCCC didn't pick sides when it launched the first round of its "Red to Blue" program.
● NY-13: Back in October, state Sen. Bill Perkins declared himself the "front-runner" in the Democratic primary to succeed Rep. Charlie Rangel in this safely blue seat. But Perkins dropped out of the race over the weekend: Not only will he not be going to Congress, Daily Kos Elections won't be asking him to handicap any congressional primaries anytime soon. Perkins raised very little money during his time in the contest, so his move isn't much of a surprise. A well-funded real estate developer is also running for Perkins' state Senate seat, so it makes sense that Perkins would concentrate on staying in the legislature.
Several Democrats are still in the hunt for this district, which includes Harlem and part of the Bronx. Assemblyman Keith Wright had the most money at the end of the year, and the Manhattan Democratic Party chair has close ties to the local establishment. State Sen. Adriano Espaillat came close to beating Rangel in 2012 and 2014, and he's hoping that his Dominican-American base will carry him to victory against his many African American rivals. Former DNC Political Director Clyde Williams is a strong fundraiser, but he didn't do well in the 2012 primary. Assemblyman Guillermo Linares (who threatens to take some vital Hispanic support from Espaillat), ex-diplomat Suzan Cook, and ex-Assemblyman Adam Clayton Powell IV are also in, but they don't have much money available.
● NY-19: After Ulster County Executive Mike Hein declined to run for this swing seat, the local county Democratic Parties quickly closed ranks behind law professor and 2014 gubernatorial candidate Zephyr Teachout. And on Monday, Hein, Ulster County Comptroller Elliot Auerbach (who also thought about running here), and two local mayors endorsed Teachout. Teachout only moved to the Hudson Valley recently, and she faces Town of Livingston Councilman Will Yandik in the June primary. Yandik is hoping that his local ties will give him an edge, but these endorsements will make it a little harder for him to portray Teachout as a carpetbagger.
● PA-09: After taking just 53 percent of the vote in the 2014 primary against two weak challengers, Republican Rep. Bill Shuster isn't taking any chances this cycle. With about two months to go before the primary for this safely red seat, Shuster is out with his first TV ad. Shuster's contest is the same day as Pennsylvania's presidential primary and if Donald Trump is still turning out voters who hate the GOP establishment, he could be in trouble. So it's no surprise that the Shuster, who chairs the House Transportation Committee, is trying to appeal to his Trump-friendly constituents.
Shuster's spot starts with muted clips of Ted Cruz, Trump, Sarah Palin, and Ben Carson, with the narrator telling the audience how "he" (the viewer doesn't know who this ad is for yet) has fought abortion, Obamacare, illegal immigration, and the Obama administration's energy policies. The spot then shows the four of them at the same time and the narrator declares, "But it's not them. It's conservative congressman Bill Shuster." The second half of the commercial shows some b-roll as the narrator largely just repeats his earlier message, but makes it clear that he's talking about Shuster. The incumbent faces underfunded businessman Art Halvorson, who took 35 percent last cycle.
● SC-05: Democrats held this northern South Carolina seat until the 2010 GOP wave, but it's tough to see Republican Rep. Mick Mulvaney losing anytime soon. Nevertheless, Fran Person, who served as an aide to Joe Biden for eight years and recently left his job as an assistant to the president and athletics director at the University of South Carolina, is giving it a shot. Person's ties to Biden might help him raise money, but voters in this 55-44 Romney seat probably won't like that part of his resume. This seat could be competitive if things go completely to shit for the GOP in the fall, but it'll be a tough slog for Team Blue otherwise.
● VA-04: Virginia Democrats expect state Sen. Donald McEachin to run for this newly-drawn and safely blue seat, and it looks like he will soon. While McEachin hasn't made an announcement yet, he has filed with the FEC. The Virginia candidate filing deadline is at the end of March but so far, few Richmond-area Democrats have shown much interest in this district. State Del. Lionell Spruill said he was "keeping his options open" in December, but he has been quiet since then. (Hat-tip Politics1)
● WI-08: Over the weekend Mike Gallagher, a retired Marine who served as Scott Walker's foreign policy advisor during the governor's presidential campaign, kicked off his bid for this open 51-48 Romney seat. A number of Green Bay business leaders called for Gallagher to run, so he should be able to raise some serious money. Gallagher will face state Sen. Frank Lasee in the August GOP primary; Democrats are hoping to land Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson.
Legislative:
● Special Elections: Via Johnny Longtorso:
Massachusetts House, 12th Essex: This is an open Republican seat located in Peabody, up the coast from Boston. The Democratic nominee is Thomas Walsh, a Peabody city councilman who held this seat from 1987 to 1995. The Republican nominee is Stephanie Peach, a legislative aide to the prior incumbent. Also on the ballot is independent Christopher Gallagher, a manager at a food distribution company. This seat went 58-41 for President Obama in 2012, but also backed Scott Brown 51-49 that same year and voted for Charlie Baker by a 52-43 margin in 2014.
Massachusetts House, 3rd Worcester: This is an open Democratic seat located in Fitchburg and part of Lunenburg, about 30 miles north of Worcester. The candidates here are Democrat Stephan Hay and Republican Dean Tran, both of whom are members of the Fitchburg City Council. This seat went 58-42 for President Obama and went for Elizabeth Warren by less than 1 percent in 2012, but also supported Charlie Baker 52-41 in 2014.
Grab Bag:
● Super Tuesday: Tuesday is the biggest night of the 2016 presidential race so far, as voters cast their ballots in 12 different states across the nation. We also have our first congressional primaries in Alabama, Arkansas, and Texas. Several longtime incumbents, most notably Sen. Richard Shelby, are wondering if Donald Trump and Ted Cruz's voters will lash out at them too. Tuesday will give us our first clue as to whether Trump is capable of wreaking havoc all up and down the ticket, or if the threat he poses to Republicans would "merely" remain confined to the presidential race. We have our preview of what to watch downballot here.
The first polls close in the presidential contest at 7 PM ET and we'll begin our liveblog at Daily Kos Elections then; we'll also be live tweeting from our Daily Kos Elections account. Join us for an exciting night!
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.