Leading Off:
● FL-Sen: We've spoken often about how Rep. Patrick Murphy has locked up the support of the Democratic establishment in his bid for the Senate, but this takes it to a completely different level: On Wednesday, Murphy earned endorsements from no less a pair than Barack Obama and Joe Biden, two figures who seldom involve themselves in primaries. It's a sign that the very highest echelons of the party believe in Murphy and care deeply about winning this race, which could determine who controls the Senate next year.
In fact, Biden will also head to Florida at the end of the month to campaign for Murphy, who faces a fight with fellow Rep. Alan Grayson for the Democratic nomination. Grayson's response was, to put it mildly, completely berserk:
"These endorsements are a last-ditch effort by the DC Establishment to try to blunt our large and growing command of the race. […] The anti-Democratic Party Establishment is desperate to drag Grayson's opponent, their do-nothing, errand boy for Wall Street, over the finish line. But Florida voters in both parties are fed up with egregious manipulation by outside forces to dictate our candidates. These arrogant Empire-Strikes-Back efforts by the Democratic politburo will be no more successful than the similar failed attempts by Republican party bosses. This is the year when the voters decide."
Uh, wow. Grayson just seriously compared Barack Obama—a man who is extremely popular with Democrats—to Darth Vader and the Soviet Union in one press release! This is not, as we understand reality, a winning move.
Speaking of crazy, a deeply hilarious report emerged in the late hours of Super Tuesday, one that will make you laugh if you haven't heard about it yet: Some Republicans are supposedly encouraging Ben Carson to quit the presidential race, pull a reverse snowbird, and head down to Florida to run for Senate. It is, of course, a psychotic idea for so many reasons, not least the fact that Carson is from a different state, and possibly from a different planet as well.
Carson also proved himself a spectacularly awful campaigner, and his entire fundraising operation was nothing but a churn-and-burn scam. Just as absurdly, NBC reporter Hallie Jackson says that these same enthusiasts have promised to "open up the field" for Carson and make sure he has all the "goodies." Right now, the GOP field includes two self-funding rich guys, two members of Congress who are giving up their seats in the House to run, and the state's lieutenant governor. These people are not going to step aside for Ben friggin' Carson.
It's probably just as much a fantasy as the Pharaoh's grain storage pyramids, though: Jackson says that Carson apparently "hasn't expressed any interest" in the idea. But in his typically somnambulent way, Carson did just kinda-sorta drop out of the presidential race on Wednesday, so who knows? Florida's a very relaxing place—the perfect spot for Carson to continue his nap.
Senate:
● OH-Sen: The president and vice president were busy on Wednesday: In addition to extending their support to Florida Rep. Patrick Murphy (see our FL-Sen item above), they also endorsed another Democrat running for Senate, former Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland. But while Murphy's primary is not for another six months, Strickland faces Cincinnati City Councilor P.G. Sittenfeld in just a couple of weeks. Sittenfeld has consistently attacked Strickland over his past opposition to gun safety measures, but it's not clear whether he's gained much traction: He's trailed in fundraising and faced a 50-point deficit in a mid-January PPP poll.
However, the state of the race may have changed since then, so it's natural to wonder if Obama and Biden are getting involved because there's a concern that Strickland could lose. But it's not always possible to get an intelligible read on the rhyme and reason behind every presidential endorsement—sometimes behind-the-scenes personal loyalties, rather than electoral calculations, are the real motivators. And if Sittenfeld has any new polling that shows him in a position to pull off a giant upset, he hasn't shared it.
Gubernatorial:
● ND-Gov: On behalf of North Dakota United, the state's largest teachers and public employee union, DFM Research takes a look at the June GOP primary. Unsurprisingly, they give state Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem a massive 59-10 lead over rich guy Doug Burgum; a third candidate, state Rep. Rick Becker, says he'll drop out if he doesn't win the state GOP endorsement at the April convention, so he wasn't tested. Like so many rich guys who run for office, Burgum starts with very little name recognition. Burgum will be able to change that if he pours his fortune into ads, though he still won't have an easy time beating the establishment-backed Stenehjem. No credible Democrats have entered the race.
House:
● AZ-05: While a ton of local Republicans are looking at this safely red seat, Maricopa County Supervisor Denny Barney has taken his name out of contention. State Senate President Andy Biggs currently has the primary to himself, and he has the support of retiring Rep. Matt Salmon.
● CA-17: In a surprise, San Jose City Councilman Pierluigi Oliverio has announced that he'll seek this seat. Oliverio is a Democrat, but he does not have very many powerful friends in Silicon Valley politics. Oliverio ran for mayor in 2014 and took a distant fourth place in the primary, and he'll have a very tough time surviving the June top-two primary, much less winning in November.
Even with Oliverio in the race, it looks likely that Rep. Mike Honda will face former Obama administration official Ro Khanna, a fellow Democrat, in the general election. Obama carried this seat 72-26, and there's no doubt that it will remain blue. Two minor Republicans are running, so it's unlikely that a non-Democrat will be able to take enough votes in June to grab a general election spot with either Honda or Khanna.
● IA-01: Former Saturday Night cast member Gary Kroeger never seemed to gain much traction in the June Democratic primary, so it's no surprise that he's dropped out of the race to run for the state House instead. Kroeger's departure leaves 2014 nominee Pat Murphy and Cedar Rapids Councilor Monica Vernon as the only candidates looking to face freshman Republican Rob Blum. Murphy beat Vernon in the 2014 primary but this time, national Democrats have consolidated behind her, and Murphy hasn't had much fundraising success. Obama won this eastern Iowa seat 56-43, and Blum won't have an easy time hanging on in November.
● IN-09: Indiana Jobs Now, a group set up to back businessman and Tennessee transplant Trey Hollingsworth, has spent $221,000 so far on his behalf, and they're out with a new poll arguing that their work is having an impact. A late February survey from National Research Inc. gives Hollingsworth a 17-16 edge against Attorney General Greg Zoeller in the May GOP primary, with state Sens. Erin Houchin and Brent Walz at 9 and 4 respectively. The poll also argues that Hollingsworth's name recognition is good: They say that 61 percent of respondents recognized him, not far behind Zoeller's 70.
Romney won this Southern Indiana seat 57-41, and it's likely to stay red without much trouble. But Roll Call's Simone Pathé reports that the congressional district's GOP chair made Hollingsworth sign a pledge promising not to run as an independent. It's not clear what brought this on, other than the fact that Hollingsworth is wealthy enough to finance an independent bid if he wanted to. The state appears to have a sore loser law that prevents anyone defeated in a primary from running for the same office as an independent that year, so Team Red shouldn't need to worry about Hollingsworth fucking things up for them. Still, it's notable that local Republican leaders have so little trust in him.
● LA-03: Brett Geymann was just termed out of the state House, and he's been signaling for a while that he'll seek this safely red Lafayette-area seat. Geymann finally kicked off his bid on Tuesday, making him the fifth Republican to join the fray. Geymann will face energy executive Greg Ellison; Lafayette School Board member Erick Knezek; wealthy businessman Gus Rantz; and ex-Ambassador Grover Rees in the November jungle primary. Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle would shake up this contest if he gets in, but Angelle still hasn't announced if he'll seek this seat, run for the Senate, or none of the above.
● NC-13: Romney carried this new seat by 7 points in 2012, so it's not out of reach for Team Blue in a good year. And at least one Democrat, state Rep. Cecil Brockman, says he's considering running here. But there's been far more excitement on the GOP side, and Guilford County Commissioner Hank Henning confirms he's interested. Republican state Rep. John Blust also says he's considering, but he wants to see if the court will uphold North Carolina's new congressional map before he makes a decision. The filing deadline is March 25, though as Blust notes, there's no guarantee that the new map will be approved in federal court.
● NE-02: Candidate filing closed Tuesday in Nebraska. All the action in both the May primary and the November general will be in this Omaha-area seat, where freshman Democrat Brad Ashford is trying to defend a constituency that backed Romney 53-46. Ashford should be the top GOP House target in the nation, but Team Red is stuck with two weak candidates. Retired Brig. General Don Bacon is the consensus favorite, but he's had trouble raising money. Still, he's a whole lot stronger than ex-state Sen. Chip Maxwell, who had negative $8,000 in the bank at the end of December. While Ashford initially showed little interest in fundraising at the beginning of the cycle, he's really stepped up his game in recent months.
● OH-14: The US Chamber of Commerce (which by the law of election writing must always be introduced as "the well-funded US Chamber of Commerce") is out with a spot boosting Rep. David Joyce ahead of the March 15 GOP primary. The ad promotes Joyce as an opponent of Obama and wasteful spending. So far, the Chamber has spent $250,000 on Joyce's behalf; Joyce faces a rematch with underfunded ex-state Rep. Matt Lynch in two weeks.
● PA-08: State Rep. Steve Santarsiero has done very well in terms of earning support from local Democrats, and now he's capped off his strong run with an endorsement from Gov. Tom Wolf. Santarsiero's opponent for the Democratic nomination, businesswoman Shaughnessy Naughton, had previously scored the backing of former Gov. Ed Rendell, the last Democrat to occupy the governor's mansion before Wolf. The two candidates are vying for the chance to pick up this swingy suburban open seat from the GOP, which is likely to nominate former FBI agent Brian Fitzpatrick, the brother of retiring Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick.
● TN-04: Donald Trump has finally earned a few endorsements from Republican office-holders, but Rep. Scott DesJarlais is the first one who actually faces a legitimate primary challenge. DesJarlais, of course, is the infamous former physician who once pressured a mistress—a patient of his—to seek an abortion after she became pregnant during their affair. Though he looked doomed, DesJarlais astounded observers when he managed to pull out a 38-vote win in the 2014 GOP primary, his first since the tapes memorializing his appalling behavior became public.
DesJarlais faces yet another legitimate primary challenge again this year in the form of former Mitt Romney staffer Grant Starrett, and while the research says that the impact of scandals fades over time, David Vitter's humiliating loss in Louisiana's gubernatorial race last year shows that that's not always the case. What's more, DesJarlais' opponent two years ago, state Sen. Jim Tracy, didn't directly hammer DesJarlais over his malfeasance in anything like the way that John Bel Edwards mashed Vitter. If Starrett has the fortitude to do what he needs to do, DesJarlais could be in real trouble.
And that's probably why DesJarlais decided to go public with his support of Trump—a few days before Trump scored a big win in Tennessee's Super Tuesday presidential primary. The congressional primaries aren't until Aug. 4, but since Trump already appears to be quite popular with Volunteer State Republicans, it's probably not a dumb move for DesJarlais to tie himself to the Donald. We'll see in a few months whether the art of this particular deal pays off.
● TX-15: The crowded Democratic primary to succeed retiring Rep. Ruben Hinojosa got a lot smaller on Tuesday. Wealthy lawyer Vincente Gonzalez took 42 percent of the vote, while Edinburg school board Trustee Juan "Sonny" Palacios Jr. outpaced ex-Hidalgo County Democratic Party chair Dolly Elizondo 19-17 to grab the second spot in the May 24 runoff.
Gonzalez poured at least $1 million of his own money into his campaign during the first round of the primary, and he'll likely spend even more in the next two months. Palacios hails from a prominent local political family but he doesn't have anywhere close to the amount of money that Gonzalez has, and it won't be easy for Palacios to win if Gonzalez controls the airwaves. Obama won this Brownsville seat 57-42, and it should stay blue in November without any difficulty.
● TX-19: On Tuesday, Lubbock Mayor Glen Robertson and former George W. Bush aide Jodey Arrington grabbed the two spots for the May 24 GOP primary runoff. Robertson took 27 percent, while Arrington edged out retired Col. Michael Bob Starr 26-20. Robertson is wealthy and he decisively outspent Arrington during the primary, and Robertson has plenty of name recognition as the leader of the district's largest city. But Arrington, a former Texas Tech vice chancellor, is well-connected, so he may be able to raise enough cash to get his name out in May. This seat is safely red.
● TX-27: While tea party-friendly candidates unsuccessfully targeted a number of Texas congressmen in Tuesday's GOP primary, it looked like Rep. Blake Farenthold would easily win renomination. However, Farenthold only beat Some Dude Gregg Deeb 56-44, a very weak win indeed. This Corpus Christie seat is safely red so Farenthold will have no trouble taking a fourth term, but his performance could inspire someone stronger to challenge him in the 2018 primary.
Farenthold has attracted some unflattering attention over the last 18 months. Lauren Greene, Farenthold's former communications director, sued him for sexual harassment, though the lawsuit was settled in November. And in late 2014, we learned that he owned the domain name "Blow-me.org" for well over a decade; a collection of some of Farenthold's online writings from 2006 to 2010 was also unearthed then, and they did nothing to help his reputation. But no one besides Deeb bothered to challenge Farenthold this year, and it's far from clear that a better candidate will emerge next cycle.
● TX-29: While a number of Republican incumbents in Texas and Alabama turned back primary challengers on Tuesday (see our rundown here), Gene Green was the only Democratic House member in any serious danger of losing renomination. But Green ended up decisively beating ex-Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia 58-38, and he'll have little trouble in this safely blue district in the fall.
Garcia entered the primary at almost literally the last minute, and he argued that this heavily Hispanic seat needed a Hispanic congressman. But prominent local and national Latino politicians endorsed Green, who is white. Green also wisely stockpiled enough money over the years to defend himself from a surprise challenge, while Garcia had to start from scratch with just three-and-a-half months to go before Election Day. This is Garcia's second big defeat in just the last few months: Garcia ran for mayor of Houston in 2015 and while he started out as one of the two frontrunners, he ended up taking a disappointing third in the November nonpartisan primary.
● VA-07, 04: Um, ok. Henrico County Sheriff Mike Wade has pulled the plug on his primary campaign in the 7th District against freshman GOP Rep. Dave Brat, and has decided to run for the new 4th District instead. This move makes very little sense. Most importantly, the new 4th backed Obama 61-39, and it's very tough to see Team Blue losing it in a presidential year. Indeed, while GOP Rep. Randy Forbes currently represents much of this turf, he decided to run in a completely new district rather than face certain defeat here. The 7th supported Romney 56-44, so Wade could have been fine in the fall if he toppled Brat.
Brat was a Some Dude who unseated then-Majority Leader Eric Cantor in the 2014 primary, and Cantor's allies hoped that Wade would return the favor. Wade's connections to the Richmond-area GOP establishment would likely have allowed him to outraise Brat, who isn't a particularly strong fundraiser. Wade's Henrico County base also makes up 30 percent of the 7th District, so Wade would have had some good initial name recognition; by contrast, redistricting removed Hanover County, an area that decisively backed Brat in 2014, from the 7th.
It's rarely easy to beat a scandal-free incumbent in a primary, but Wade's chances against Brat were probably a whole lot better than his chances against Team Blue in the 4th District. It also doesn't help Wade that only about 11 percent of the 4th's population lives in Henrico County. Much of the 4th is in the Richmond media market so Wade will still have some name recognition, but he'll need a whole lot of bipartisan goodwill to win a seat this blue.
Virginia's filing deadline is at the end of March so if angry Cantor allies still want revenge against Brat, they need to find a new candidate quickly. Over in the 4th, Democratic state Sen. Donald McEachin has filed with the FEC, though he says he won't announce his plans until the legislative session ends in mid-March.
Legislative:
● Special Elections: Tuesday gave Democrats a pickup in the Massachusetts state House, one of the bluest chambers in the country. Johnny Longtorso has more:
Massachusetts House, 12th Essex: Democrats picked up this seat in a rout. Thomas Walsh, who left the state House in 1995, defeated Republican Stephanie Peach by a 58-38 margin, with independent Christopher Gallagher pulling in the remaining 4 percent.
Massachusetts House, 3rd Worcester: This was a Democratic hold; Stephen Hay beat Republican Dean Tran by a 51-49 margin.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.