I’ve been hearing a lot of pessimism recently on our House chances. I really don’t understand this, because, contrary to popular belief, the House is as good as a Tossup or Tilt R at worst. We must gain thirty seats, which is a lot, I know, but Trump should make the job easier. Let’s assume we hold all our own seats except Gwen Graham’s panhandle based, very red Florida 2 to establishment favorite Neal Dunn. So this is starting off unrealistic, I know. We cancel out Graham’s loss by winning the deep blue Florida 10 being vacated by Daniel Webster. Then we gain the open Florida 13, which leans Democratic and is being vacated by David Jolly. Former Governor Charlie Crist is our likely nominee here. We gain Virginia 4, a super-blue seat being vacated by J. Randall Forbes, won by State Senator Don McEachin. Florida 26 held by Carlos Curbelo is likely ours. Curbelo will probably face Annette Taddeo, though Former Representative Joe Garcia could give the race to Curbelo. All these changes are likely due to redistricting. So a net plus three already. Beating Crescent Hardy (In Nevada 4, with a primary between Ruben Kiheun, Lucy Flores, and Susie Lee.) and Rod Blum (In Iowa 1) will be an easy task. So plus five. If scandal-tarred incumbent Frank Guinta survives his primary with Pamela Tucker and Rich Ashooh, he is likely to go down in November in his fourth straight match with Carol Shea Porter. Plus six. If Robert Dold loses his third match with Brad Schneider in Illinois 10, Democrat Angie Craig beats either Jason Lewis or Darlene Miller in the open Minnesota 2, being vacated by John Kline, Pete Gallego wins his rematch with Will Hurd in Texas 23, and Emily Cain beats Bruce Polquin in their rematch in Maine 2, that will be plus ten.
Let’s check our candidates. We have a primary in Florida 10 between former Orlando Police Department chief Val Demings, State Senator Geraldine Thompson, and wealthy person Bob Poe. Demings here is the favorite. In the 13th, Crist will likely breeze through against former DefSec advisor Eric Lynn. In the 26th, 2014 LG nominee and national Democratic favorite Annette Taddeo is facing pesky Democrat Joe Garcia, who has ethical problems and represented this seat from 2013-2015. Garcia, in short, is like Alan Grayson without the progressivism and worse habits. In Virginia 4, Don McEachin is unopposed in the primary and will likely beat Henrico County Sheriff Mike Wade. In Iowa 1, 2014 LG nominee Monica Vernon is facing off against 2014 nominee Pat Murphy, who should have won even in 2014. In Nevada 4, the candidates all have different bases of support. Labor is supporting Co-State Senate Minority Whip Ruben Kiheun, former Assemblywoman Flores has the support of women’s rights groups and stuff, and wealthy person Lee has the backing of Emily’s List. In New Hampshire 1 former Representative Carol Shea-Porter is facing off against businessman Shawn O’ Connor. Angie Craig and Emily Cain are the only candidates in their respective districts, and Schneider and Gallego have officially won their primaries. Craig is a doctor (I think) and Cain is a former State Senator and the 2014 nominee for this seat, while Schneider and Gallego represented their seats from 2013-2015. This is part one officially, part 2 will be out next week.