News outlets are reporting early primary vote numbers here in the Peach State, like here and here, but the data are hard to find on the Secretary of State’s website here.
Using the news reports of the early vote, we can take a look at what will be shaping up tomorrow, which is Primary Election Day in Georgia. Any race that doesn’t have a candidate crossing the 50% threshold will go to a run-off, with the top two contenders facing off on July 24.
Over the past several (generally painful) election cycles, we’ve heard that the demographics, diversity, urbanization, and increasing education levels in Georgia are all favoring Team Blue, but the trends have not been able to overcome the structural and other hurdles in the state. Trump won it by 50.4% to 45.3% - not an impressive number in a state supposedly in the deep south, with 3% going to Gary Johnson. Dems performed about the same in 2012, when Obama lost to Romney 53.3% to 45.5% - the higher Republican margin reflected Gary Johnson only pulling about 1% that year. The 2012 Presidential results were very similar to the last time Georgia elected a governor, when Nathan Deal defeated Jason Carter in 2014, 52.7% to 44.9%.
Democratic engagement in the primary early vote is much stronger than the 2016 US Senate Primary early, with 50,000 more voters coming out early and requesting absentee ballots. This year’s primary early vote is only 13,000 votes shy of the 2016 Presidential Primary early vote. Republicans typically do much better than Democrats in the earlier vote in Georgia, so this could be an early sign of strong peachy turnout.
These statewide numbers will come into play in the all-important battle for the Governor’s Mansion, which will no doubt be led on the left by someone named Stacey. Will this surge in Democratic enthusiasm translate into state-wide victory? Will it help the Democrats stepping up in potentially Congressional districts like GA 6 and GA 7? Both of these are currently represented by Republicans, are in metropolitan Atlanta, increasingly diverse, full of motivated women, and close to the tipping point. Great Dems are stepping up for both of these seats – with former CBS anchor Bobby Kaple in the 6th and GSU public policy professor and Emily’s List candidate Carolyn Bourdeaux in the 7th showing early strength, but both with crowded and talented fields.
Only time will tell, but one thing is for sure – Georgia Democrats are stepping up, and Georgia Republicans have a fight on their hands!